Sadiq Khan’s lead has narrowed in the final set of polls before election day, meaning the London mayor may no longer avoid a second round run-off against his Conservative opponent Shaun Bailey.
In a further blow, Khan’s staff and well-placed Tories both believe that the polls are underestimating the fall in the mayor’s support, as a combination of complacency among voters and anxiety about Covid-19 hurts the Labour incumbent’s chances.
“The blunt truth is: if you’re old, you’ve been vaccinated. And if you’re old, you’re likely voting for us,” a London Conservative said, “It’s Sadiq’s vote that is unvaccinated, worried about getting Covid and not registered for a postal vote. I think Shaun is going to surprise a lot of people.”