How accurate were COVID-19 models for Minnesota?
July 17, 2021 — 8:17pm
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The COVID-19 pandemic will be remembered most for the immense loss of life and health it caused, but also for some famous forecasts gone wrong.
Simulations at the pandemic's start by the University of Minnesota and Minnesota Department of Health predicted that 74,000 COVID-19 deaths by August 2020 could be reduced to 50,000 through mitigations that limited social contact. But as August 2021 approaches, the state's toll is nearing 7,700.
Meanwhile, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Washington (IHME) predicted 60,000 COVID-19 deaths nationwide by last August. That total was quickly eclipsed and has surged beyond 600,000 this summer.