It is interesting how sentiment on the economy can quickly turn from one extreme to another.
Just a few months ago, the talk was of a UK economy in the doldrums, with a long road to recovery.
Unemployment was forecast to rise to over 10 per cent and many were predicting that the Bank of England might embark on negative interest rates for the first time in its history. Today, the talk in some quarters is of inflation and parts of the economy at risk of overheating.
So, what do we know about the path for recovery?
The first, and most important point, is that there remains huge uncertainty about the outlook. Whilst the latest predictions are undoubtedly more positive than earlier in the year, significant uncertainties remain. This is not just because of ongoing concerns about the spread of the virus and new variants, but also huge unknowns about how business and consumers will react as Covid financial support is lifted.