Sir ed davey vowed to remove the tories from power across the country. People are crying out for change and this election is the chance to make that happen. In chance to make that happen. In so many parts of the country, its the liberal democrats who can beat the conservatives, who have taken people for granted. Have taken people for granted. In other news, uk inflation has fallen to the lowest level in nearly three years in april, dnven in nearly three years in april, driven by lower gas and electricity prices. The latest figures show. Inflation dropped figures show. Inflation dropped to 2. 3 last month, but people in birmingham say theyre still struggling to make ends meet and one person has died in a mudslide on the edge of the nonh mudslide on the edge of the North Yorkshire moors. As rain continues to batter the uk. It happened at carlton in cleveland at around 130 this afternoon. Nonh at around 130 this afternoon. North Yorkshire Police have asked the public to avoid the area. Former subpostmaster alan area. Former subpostmaster alan bates has said he has no sympathy for Paula Vennells after she broke down twice dunng after she broke down twice during her first day of evidence to the horizon. It inquiry. During her first day of evidence to the horizon. It inquiry. The to the horizon. It inquiry. The former post office boss at the centre of the scandal admitted making mistakes during her time in charge, but she insists she didnt know about the horizon system when she joined and that no one had told her of any bugs. Shes also denied any conspiracy to cover up the scandal. And for to cover up the scandal. And for the latest stories, sign up to gb news alerts by scanning the qr code on your screen or go to gb news. Com slash alerts. Now its back to. Tom. Its back to. Tom. Thanks, sophia, and welcome back to this evenings coverage of the Prime Ministers decision to announce an election on the 4th of july. Well, speaking at rather rainy downing street press conference earlier this afternoon, struggling against the noises coming from whitehall, the Prime Minister had this to say. Earlier today i spoke with his majesty the king to request the dissolution of parliament. The king has granted this request and we will have a general election on the 4th of july. So the timeline there. Parliament will be dissolved on the 30th of this month. The election will happen on the 4th of july. But he also had bold words , mr mr sunak to say about words, mr mr sunak to say about his rival sir keir starmer. He has shown time and time again that he will take the easy way out and do anything to get power. If he was happy to abandon all the promises he made to become labour leader once he got the job, how can you know that he wont do exactly the same thing. 7 if he were to become same thing . If he were to become Prime Minister if you dont have the conviction to stick to anything you say, if you dont have the courage to tell people what you want to do. And if you dont have a plan , how can you dont have a plan, how can you possibly be trusted to lead our country , especially at this most country, especially at this most uncertain of times . Uncertain of times . Well, sir keir starmer promptly responded with his own statement, although it was in sight later this evening. Tonight the Prime Minister has finally announced the next general election , a moment the general election, a moment the country needs and has been waiting for. And where, by the force of our democracy, power returns to you a chance to change for the better. Your future , your community, your future, your community, your country. Country. Well, the battle lines are set. But it wasnt just those two statements in the heart of westminster this afternoon. There is more to come. Indeed theres an event this evening currently taking place in east london. This is a conservative event and were expecting the Prime Minister to speak any moment now. This will be his first opportunity to address his own activists in what is setting off that that starting cannon for this six week general Election Campaign. Next to me in Election Campaign. Next to me in the studio is jacob rees mogg, the studio is jacob rees mogg, the usual presenter of this slot. Yes, you pinched my program. Yes, you pinched my program. Im ever so sorry. I suppose this is. This is now. Now the rules for the next six weeks. Well, the rules dont change until the dissolution. But until the dissolution. But youre quite right. During the penod youre quite right. During the period of the Election Campaign, i obviously cant present a tv programme. No. And youll be campaigning. Youll be fighting in your seat. Ill be fighting in North East Somerset and harnham. Yes. Now, what are you expecting rishi sunak to be saying to this group of activists in east london in the next few minutes . Well, i expect hell be inspiring us. Hell be saying, look, its been very difficult. Weve had been very difficult. Weve had to deal with covid, weve had to deal with war in ukraine, weve had to deal with the extraordinary rise in gas prices, which has now mainly reversed. We got through that. Reversed. We got through that. We saw the country safely through and now we can look to the broad, sunlit uplands. We can look to the opportunity for an economy growing stronger than most of our european competitors, a country where Interest Rates are going to come down, a country where were freeing up regulations on business and whether people standard of living is going to get better. Thats all thats really positive. The future, of course, what many people will say is that rishi sunak could have waited another three months. He could have gone after a fiscal event and said, look what weve just done, rather than look what we will do. I think after a fiscal event doesnt really make a lot of difference. The electorate isnt stupid. They cant be bribed with their own money. They know what the general trend of the economy is and in our nations over 1000 year history, three months is a drop in the ocean. Well, lets bring in Paul Richards as well. Former labour adviser, paul, i suppose this is an opportunity for rishi sunak to have some pictures taken of him that arent completely sodden. Yes, its a little bit of a rescue operation , isnt it . Rescue operation, isnt it . This and lets hope the roof doesnt leak. I mean, im told lots of tory mps were told to come to this and a lot of them havent. So i think it may be a bit of a damp squib. Goodness me jacob, you told to come along to this tonight . No, no, i wasnt so not invited. Jacob. Well, i dont know. Jacob. Well, i dont know. I dont know, but i had a private engagement here anyway. No, i should mention that were looking at senior members of the cabinet here. We can see michael gove. We can actually michael gove. We can actually see akshata murthy, rishi sunaks wife. We saw david sunaks wife. We saw David Cameron a moment ago. Cameron is supposed to be in albania, isnt he . He flew back this afternoon for that important we can see grant shapps. I believe thats Steve Barclay as well. So the whole cabinet look like they are standing. Chris Heaton Harris , standing. Chris Heaton Harris, were looking at a roll call of senior politicians, but jacob, this is what were going to see again and again. And again in this campaign. Is this going to be a campaign of rallies . Well its going to be a campaign of experience and people who are capable in doing their job and capable in doing theirjob and have been doing it for some time against people who are untested and were supporters of Jeremy Corbyn, who backed, a leader whod been in favour of withdrawing from nato and all of that. Its going to be in an unsafe world. The tried and tested and those on the side of our armed forces and security against those who rallied around not so long ago. Jeremy corbyn, an opinion poll today says that 75 of the country want to see change rather than stability, change and decay in all around. I see, 0 thou who changes, not abide with me. And i think thats going to be our message. Abide with rishi, abide with rishi. Paul richards , what do you Paul Richards, what do you make of that . Is this going to be an election of this idea of, of risk, of the unknown versus change, which is going to win out . I mean, abide with me mostly sung at funerals, i have to say. So. I mean, there might be they might be the tone of the election. I mean, it is the classic election, isnt it, of the tories are going to say, dont change a horse midstream. Stick with us. Theres you know, theres green shoots versus labour saying it is time for a change. Try something new. Lets face it, it cant be any worse. And thats the parameters of the election right there. For the next six weeks, things can only get better. This harks back to 1997, jacob, where you were a candidate. I was indeed in central fife. Last seat was a communist. I didnt do particularly well, but actually this is a change back from labour to the 1960s. Its very Harold Wilson esque. Its that type of approach to politics. Dont try and give too much away. Make these mumbling noises about we cant make any promises because we havent seen. Wilson was any one of the three leaders has ever won, and he won twice. But this line about four times. In fact, the warm up act for the Prime Minister, it looks like home secretary James Cleverly is not taking. Or maybe he is taking to the stage. Shall we just have a little listen in to see if hes about to speak . Okay, this is it. To see if hes about to speak . Okay, this is it. This is it. Okay, this is it. This is it. This is the moment. This is it. Elections been called, and elections are about choices. And we are going to present the british people with a choice. And it is a clear choice. It is a simple choice, and its a choice about leadership. Its a choice about leadership. Its a choice about leadership. Its a choice about decisiveness. Its a choice about integrity. And its a choice about what happens next for our country. Thats what elections are about. So let me just let me just briefly before i cede the stage to the Prime Minister, let me just briefly remind us all why this choice matters is so very much today. We had fantastic economic figures. Inflation is now back where it should be. Its normal inflation levels, not by accident because of choices, difficult choices , but because difficult choices, but because of choices. Choices made when rishi sunak was chancellor and choices he made when he was Prime Minister. Yes. Choices he made when he was Prime Minister. Yes. And getting Prime Minister. Yes. And getting inflation back where it should be, then unlocks tax cuts for hard working people whove already seen some of those through the National Insurance contributions reductions, hard working people, families that deserve to keep the money that they earn, keeping the money that they earn, pensioners who have worked hard for their pensions, keeping more of their pensions. That is about choices. Choices that rishi sunak has made. And of course, in a time made. And of course, in a time of turbulence when there is danger across the globe, whether its in the middle east or whether its in the Asia Pacific Region or whether its in cyberspace , we need a leader at cyberspace, we need a leader at the head of a government who is willing to make the right choices , just as he did when, as choices, just as he did when, as Prime Minister, he decided to give our friends in ukraine the support they needed to defend themselves against putins aggression. Aggression. And as we, as we present our case, as we present our case to the british people, let lets remind ourselves the other choice available to them, which is a labour party led by one, one of the various keir starmer entities. Is that one of the various keir starmer entities. Is that and i say that because i dont know whos turning up. I dont know what turning up. I dont know what were getting with the keir starmer led labour party. Is it the keir starmer who backed relentlessly not once but twice, Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister . Is it is it that keir starmer, or is it the keir starmer, or is it the keir starmer that then promised to be continuity corbyn, when running for the leadership to tickle the tummy of the left wing voter bloc in the labour party, is that keir starmer or the keir starmer that then denounced Jeremy Corbyn . Or is it the keir starmer who is now worried about the left flank of his labour party and starting to flirt once again in with the language that hes used in the past . I genuinely dont know. I hope he does. Genuinely dont know. I hope he does. Im not completely does. Im not completely convinced. So the choice is really simple. A leader who has really simple. A leader who has been tested through some of the most challenging circumstances, who brought in furlough to make sure. Well, weve been listening to the home secretary, the warm up act for the Prime Minister. We will, of course, return to east london for that Tory Campaign event when the Prime Minister p0ps event when the Prime Minister pops up. Jacob rees mogg, youve been listening to the home secretary here. Hes talking, of course, a lot about the themes that were going to hear throughout this general election. Well, thats right. And were going to hear a lot about rishi sunak track record and the furlough scheme and how we got through covid, which is very important. And the Prime Minister played a very Important Role in that. And were going to hear a lot about the labour party, because the labour, some people will say that a lot of the problems that we see today, the problems that we see today, the high inflation that weve endured over the last year or two, if anything was spurred on by a lot of that high spending that rishi sunak was responsible for, who is responsible for inflation in this country, the bank of england , they have bank of england, they have independence to keep inflation down. The bank of england failed. Who gave them independence . Gordon brown. What party did gordon brown. What party did gordon brown. What party did gordon brown belong to . Hes a socialist independence, the bank of england, the labour party policy. Its been a dud policy and led to terrible inflation and led to terrible inflation and high Interest Rates. Im not sure the city of london saw the independence of the bank of england as a socialist policy. It was. It was introduced by the labour party, wasnt a conservative party. The labour party do automatically. Margaret thatcher. Margaret thatcher. Margaret thatcher refused to do it because she believed in democratic accountability. If anything, that sounds more socialist. No, youre accountable to your voters in a capitalist society, in a Free Democratic society, in a Free Democratic society that believes in free markets, and the labour party believes in a bureaucracy that knows best, they believe was a labour cabinet minister who said the fact of the matter is, the man in whitehall really does know best that socialism sunak is now walking on to the stage. Lets have a look. Lets have a look. Friends, friends. Thank you. It is great to be with you all this evening. Great to be with you all the evening. You are the lifeblood of our incredible party. And i can tell by this reception that you are up for this general election. Now. The this general election. Now. The last. The last few years have been tough. I know that you know been tough. I know that you know that weve been dealing with covid, which so badly upended our way of life. And then the huge spike in our energy bills caused by putins invasion of ukraine. But together, as we learnt this morning, we have got inflation down from 11 to 2. We have delivered on my First Priority to drive inflation back to normal. To normal. And weve shown the country that it is only this conservative party that can deliver the economic stability , the economic stability, the foundation of our national success, the economy is growing again faster than germany, france and the united states. Wages have been rising faster than prices. For ten months now. Than prices. For ten months now. The economy has turned a corner. Friends, our plan is working. Friends, our plan is working. But. But. But with this friends, our plan is working. But. But. But with this hard won economic stability comes a choice. Who do you trust to turn that foundation into a secure future for you, your family and our country . Now is the moment for britain to choose its future, to decide whether we want to build on the progress that we have made , or risk going that we have made, or risk going back to square one with no plan and no certainty. Now, we all know that the only certainty with labour is that they will run out of money and raise your taxes. Taxes. And as jeremy showed us just the other week, labour would cost every working household more than £2,000 extra in taxes. Now, than £2,000 extra in taxes. Now, this election takes place at a time when the world is more dangerous than its been since. At any point since the end of the cold war, putins russia is waging a brutal war in ukraine, and hell not stop there if he succeeds. That war is also made all too clear. The risk to our Energy Security in the middle east, the forces of islamist extremism threaten regional and ultimately, global stability. China is seeking to dominate the 21st century by stealing a lead in technology, and migration is being weaponised by hostile states to threaten the integrity of our borders. Now, these Uncertain Times call for a clear plan and bold action to chart a course to a secure future, and it is we conservatives and only we conservatives who have that plan, who are prepared to take that bold action to ensure that Better Future for our country and our children. And our children. Just look. Just look at our plan just look. Just look at our plan to cut migration and stop the boats with our rwanda screen across europe, the penny is dropping that ours is the right approach. Yeah, but if labour approach. Yeah, but if labour become the next government, theyll scrap the rwanda scheme and enact a de facto amnesty for asylum seekers, making us a magnet for every illegal immigrant in europe in every way. Labour would make our country less. Secure. Now labour country less. Secure. Now labour want you to think that this election is over before it has even begun. But we are going to fight. We are going to fight every day for our values and our vision. And the british people are going to show labour that they dont take too kindly to being taken for granted. Now. On the 5th of july, either keir starmer or i will be Prime Minister, and he has shown time and time again that he will take the easy way out and do anything to get power. If he was happy to abandon all the promises that he made to become labour leader once he got the job, how can you know that he wouldnt do exactly the same thing if he were to become Prime Minister . Well, if he doesnt have the conviction to stick to anything he says, if he doesnt have the courage to tell people what he wants to do, and if he doesnt have a plan, how can he possibly be trusted to lead our country, especially at this, the most uncertain of times right now . Uncertain of times right now . Now we conservatives have got a clear plan with bold action to secure our future. Were working secure our future. Were working for a britain where we have renewed confidence in ourselves and our communities. A country where hard work will be met with fair rewards and where the opportunities enjoyed by the previous generations will be there for future ones. A country there for future ones. A country where our defence and our security is assured. So lets take that message and that vision of a secure future to every corner of our united kingdom. And lets show labour that the british people will never be taken for granted. Never be taken for granted. Lets get out there and do this. Lets get out there and do this. Well, there we have it. The Prime Minister hugging his wife as that first Campaign Event of the official general Election Campaign has begun. Listening to it was our political editor, christopher hope. Live from downing street. Christopher, this sign of more to come. This sign of more to come. Yes. And hi, tom. Thats right. You heard there the attack on sir keir starmer. Youll hear more of that over the next six weeks. What does he believe in . Is he someone whos going to say one thing, anything, frankly, to get elected . That is the tory attack line. We first heard it first, last week when the pm gave a speech at policy exchange. He said, then didnt he, the pm. Sorry. Forgive me, sir keir starmer supported Jeremy Corbyn in 2019 and in 2024 he backed a right wing tory mp, now a labour mp, called natalie elphicke. You heard there though , other heard there though, other talking about how hes delivered on, on on covid the Energy Bill Cap how the how how youre seeing there how theres a choice here between stability with the economy and risk with labour and that that is a very defensive play to start any campaign from. But thats all theyve got. They can show here quite clearly to voters that that stick with us. The plan is working. Dont mess it up. We are controlling migration. The idea of offshore processing is now spreading across the continent of europe. Its an idea being picked up by other countries. The pm himself was back. Countries. The pm himself was back. It was countries. The pm himself was back. It was in vienna in austria on Tuesday Morning for talks. Thats yesterday. Would you believe it, but theres no no question now saying the plan is working. Dont mess it up. And thats the entire picture youre going to hear, i think, from this tory party in the election starting tonight. Christopher hope live from downing street. Thank you very much indeed. Well listening to all of that was a former conservative mp. Now now reform uks only member of parliament Leigh Anderson leigh. Did the Prime Minister say enough to win you back . No, not at all tom. And lets go on. Lets be honest, jacob, the ive got the greatest respect for jacob here, the ive got the greatest respect forjacob here, and i sincerely hope he does well in the next election. But the plan is not working, tom. You know, weve got the migration figures out tomorrow. Thats going to be another embarrassment. But the figures out today show 75 collapse in, dependent visas for, for social care workers and for student. I mean, workers and for student. I mean, listen, tom, january migration is collapsing. Tom. Weve got a Short Campaign now, six weeks to the general election. Were going to see good weather. Were going to see good weather. Were going to see more people crossing the channel. This is an absolute nightmare for the Prime Minister and actually calling this election at this time is a little bit cowardly, because if it had gone much longer to november or december sort of time, wed had a whole summer full of Illegal Migrants crossing the channel, proving once again that the, the rwanda plan is not working. Well, lets put that to jacob rees mogg. Jacob, is this an admission from the government, really, that rwanda will not get off the ground, that it will not deter the boats . Well, i hope rwanda will stay on the ground. Were very odd if a country levitated. No, i dont think its that at all. I think it is a bold step to give the british people a clear choice in an uncertain world. I think there are many arguments for saying the economy was picking up. The saying the economy was picking up. The rwandan flights would have taken off, and that actually waiting would have helped , but that hes gone for helped, but that hes gone for it. He said, look, this is my record. This is what ive done record. This is what ive done here i stand, i can do no other. God help me. Amen. And thats the only time i will quote martin luther. Well , thank you for being well, thank you for being a catholic and mentioning that. But nigel nelson, youre listening in and youre listening in and youre listening about this, this scrap between reform uk and the tory vote. Rishi sunaks big bet here is that a lot of reform uk, that vote that is perhaps formerly conservative voting will come back home. Do you think that that will happen and is that a risk to labours lead . Risk to labours lead . I think that the that the polls will narrow. So labour wont be nearly as far ahead as we approach election day as they are at the moment. I think reform needed to be 20 in the polls, really to actually make a huge difference. At the moment, reform doesnt get a single mp based on the polling. Are you saying that lee anderson wont keep his lead . What do you make of it . Dont take any notice of nigel because i dont. As a rule, i will win my seat, that thatis rule, i will win my seat, that that is a given. Ill tell you what. Tomorrow ill be going to the bookmakers, seeing what odds i am. Ill be having a bet on myself. Probably a little bit, a fiver on jacob as well, for a bit of fun. But look, you know, the conservative party, who i was a member of for 4 or 5 years, they think theyve got a divine right to stand in these seats. And they hope that reform will step aside. Politics doesnt work like that. The people in this country need a clear choice. And the conservative party does some good things. Jacob, i have to admit that. But but they failed on immigration. They failed on illegal migration. These are the fundamental things in the red wall seats that the people demand action on. And they failed, tom. They failed miserably. Jacob clearly rishi sunak wants to make this election an economic election. Hes spoken about furlough. Hes spoken about furlough. Hes spoken about inflation coming down lower than the eurozone, lower than the united states. Hes than the united states. Hes going to talk a lot about the economy. Is immigration actually going to be a comeuppance . Immigration is fundamentally important. And i agree with lee that immigration has grown too far, and that once we were fully out of the European Union as a response to covid, we allowed too much immigration. We thought it was necessary because of the apparent tightness of the labour market, the steps taken in the last six months to tighten up on migration are beginning to work, and we must do more of that. We must promise voters and deliver for voters migration. As David Cameron promised in the tens of thousands. And i think thats perfectly deliverable. Do you think thats going to be in the conservative manifesto . Well, the steps were already taken, have been bringing it down that you were mentioning the figures today show that the visas issued so far this year have come down by 75. | so far this year have come down by 75. I mean, this is terrific. And what we now know is that the migration we thought was economically desirable post the pandemic wasnt its actually been economically harmful. Its led to gdp per capita falling. And so there are good economic grounds for being tough on migration. And i think thats going to be thats only because while there has been more migration, there hasnt been the corresponding infrastructure built to accommodate it. Thats not something that would affect the gdp per capita growth. Thats a later stage cost that you have to endure. The reason you have to endure. The reason there hasnt been the gdp per capha there hasnt been the gdp per capita growth is that weve imported labour to do low skilled work and to do jobs that are poorly paid. Well, i know nigel wants to get in. Were going to return to this conversation, but we must cross to Buckingham Palace, where our royal correspondent, cameron walker, is waiting. Cameron, the king has a huge role to play in what comes over the following week. The following week. Yeah, he absolutely does. Tom and he had a very busy diary today here at Buckingham Palace , today here at Buckingham Palace, and yet he had to find more time in his diary to carry out one of his most important constitutional duties. So constitutional duties. So i understand that the Prime Minister visited Buckingham Palace this afternoon for a 15 minutes meeting with his majesty the king, following the kings engagements here with the princes trust, where he asked where the Prime Minister asked the king to hold a general election and also to dissolve parliament. The king accepted and allowed rishi sunak to do so. But Buckingham Palace has released a statement this evening which reads following the Prime Ministers statement this afternoon, calling election, the . Election, theiroyal general election, the royal family will, in accordance with normal procedure, postpone engagements that may appear to divert attention or distract from the Election Campaign. From the Election Campaign. Their majesty sends their sincere apologies to any of those who may be affected as a result. Well, what does that mean . Well it means all of his majesty the kings public engagements this week have been cancelled. It was due to visit cancelled. It was due to visit crewe on friday to visit the bentley factory and a community centre. There was also a previously unannounced engagements which has also been postponed. We do understand that postponed. We do understand that the d Day Celebrations and commemorations, which are happening in a couple of weeks, are still going ahead, involving several members of the royal family. What is unclear is whether big events such as trooping the colour is going to be taking place, or indeed, the japanese state visit. The king was expected to host the japanese emperor at the end of june, which clearly is in the general election period. Big question mark over that. And question mark over that. And then, of course, we come to the election week itself , the election week itself, the elections scheduled for the 4th of july. So therefore, the day after, the king will be appointing the Prime Minister the new premier. But where is that going to happen . Because that going to happen . Because thatis that going to happen . Because that is during holyrood week. Dufing that is during holyrood week. During royal week, the king is expected if hes well enough to host a garden party at the palace of holyrood house in edinburgh on tuesday the 2nd of july, suggesting to me that he may need to cut his week in edinburgh short to come back down to london to appoint his new Prime Minister now there is a caveat to that. Its not essential that that happens in Buckingham Palace. The king did appoint rishi sunak as Prime Minister inside Buckingham Palace, but the time before that, when it was the late Queen Elizabeth and liz truss that happened at balmoral because of the queens health, could that happen again . Quite possibly. Of happen again . Quite possibly. Of course, nothing has been confirmed. I suspect that the both the king and the Prime Minister, whoever that happens to be, would want it to happen in Buckingham Palace because of course that is tradition. But the king is still undergoing cancer treatment. Clearly a lot cancer treatment. Clearly a lot of his engagements are now going to be postponed or cancelled because of his general election period, as well as other members of the royal family. But the top line tonight is the king has accepted the Prime Ministers request to a hold a general election on the 4th of july and dissolve parliament. Cameron walker, thank you very much for bringing us that outside Buckingham Palace. Really appreciate it. It is one of the marvellous peculiarities of the marvellous peculiarities of our system that a Prime Minister may not, dissolve Parliament Without the permission of the king. Marvellous stuff. Jacob rees mogg. Its one of the most important safeguards of our constitution and the restoration. Oh, surely its a formality. Its not. Its not. No, the. The la salles principles insist on there being certain circumstances where the king would not give advice, which were discussed at length when Boris Johnson was Prime Minister. Absolutely right. Minister. Absolutely right. Because the fixed term parliaments act was repealed and we went back to the traditional system and particularly if we were to have a Hung Parliament and a Prime Minister were to ask for a dissolution within three months or something, for a dissolution within three months or something , the king months or something, the king would have to think very carefully. It is, i mean , we carefully. It is, i mean, we havent had it yet in our history where the king refuses the, dissolution of parliament in the united kingdom. But it is theoretically possible. And there have been examples in some of the realms. Australia was australias different, i think in canada they had the refusal of a dissolution when a Prime Minister had lost a vote of confidence and he wanted to have it when it was thought it was simpler just to have a new was simplerjust to have a new Prime Minister, this going back to the 1920s. So it is a important residual constitutional power for, that wouldnt be used at this stage in a parliament, but but could be used early on. The king doesnt have to accept the Prime Ministers advice. Its a request for a dissolution. It is not what you might call capital, a advice. A advice. Well, there we go, were joined now by Martin Baxter as well, in the studio of electoral calculus. Martin, a lot of calculus. Martin, a lot of people will be looking at the polls and thinking that this is game set and match. Why bother with a campaign . But i suppose recent history has shown that campaigns can really change things. Things. Well, indeed. Tom. Yes. I mean, the key, number to look at is the lead of labour over the conservatives in the polls. So conservatives in the polls. So if thats 5, then keir starmer gets a bare majority. Ten he gets a bare majority. Ten he gets a bare majority. Ten he gets a bare majority. Ten he gets a good majority. 13 is what tony blair had in 1997. He had a very big majority. And at the moment labour are on 21, which is on my calculator, even bigger than 13. So quick maths indeed. So quick maths indeed. So quick maths indeed. So quick maths indeed. So rishi sunak i guess. Must be hoping one that perhaps the polls are a bit off and the polls are a bit off and the polls have been wrong before. Sometimes i remember predicting neil kinnock winning the 1992 election, as the exit poll did , election, as the exit poll did, and, indeed, so that the polls can be wrong and equally, if a party leader does not resonate well with the british public, then they can lose support dunng then they can lose support during the campaign. And theresa may is the is the poster child for that event because we saw her lose support every week dunng her lose support every week during the campaign. So thats the headline number. What are the underlying lying numbers that we should look at that perhaps would be a clue to how things might shift. That might be a clue to how soft that headline number is. Is this support for the labour party very, very broad but fairly shallow. Well , i shallow. Well, i think its not just support for the labour party. Its disillusionment with the conservative party. So a lot of conservative voters are either planning to stay at home, they tell us theyre not planning to vote or theyve gone to reform them. So i suppose things to watch are whether if turnout starts edging up and it looks like disgruntled conservatives are going to turn out after all, or if reform lose votes to the conservatives because im sure the conservatives will push the message that a vote for reform is really a vote for keir starmer. And the question is whether that message resonates with the public, that the conservative public or whether theyre, say, so disillusioned that they do not care anymore. That they do not care anymore. But of course, nigel nelson, voters are complicated, individuals, people dont necessarily vote in the way that psephologists would like them to. You have ukip to lib dems switchers. You have people who switchers. You have people who once voted snp who might then vote conservative in the next election. Patterns of voting dont always follow what one might expect, so we can see, a huge amount of churn and potentially some surprises. I think we see now the narrowing of the polls at the moment, it looks as if labour will will have an overall majority , i didnt believe for majority, i didnt believe for a moment the idea that the local Election Results showed showed any showed a Hung Parliament, which they claim to. What they showed was how the country would have voted in local elections if everyone was voting. I suppose the big the big clue there was the big the big clue there was the enormously high green vote and lib dem votes, which probably we dont expect, and independent votes. And the fact that reform were only standing in a half a dozen seats, so i mean, and also scotland was left out. So none of those, those predictions that everyone got terribly excited about meant anything. Well, martin, on that point, scotland that will be a fascinating, background to all of this. Theres some suggestions that the snp could fall back to sort of normal levels of snp seats, back to where they sat before the, partition referendum. Indeed. Weve got the snp on a round about between 10 and 20 seats, so thats way down on where they were. We do seem to past peak snp for the moment, so scotlands a place where keir starmer could pick up a few more seats as well, though on our figures he doesnt really need it. But im sure itll all be welcome. The other thing where, labour and the lib dems could do well is with tactical voting that people tell us theres quite a lot of anti conservative tactical voting being planned, but one difficulty with that is obviously all the parliamentary seats have been redrawn and so many seats have changed, and people may not be quite aware of whom they should vote for if they do not want those lib dem bar charts might need updating, or perhaps they wont be so directly comparable. Jacob rees mogg there will be, of course , a huge amount of be, of course, a huge amount of tactical voting, and perhaps more so than any election before. People have so much more information at their fingertips than ever before. That, of course, will hurt the conservative party as tactical voting hurts incumbents. Well, not necessarily. Ive been rather rudely looking over martins shoulder at his figures. And he has. The conservatives predicted 92 seats and labour 478 seats. I think most people would think on that prediction that they could vote for the party that they most liked, because theyre not going to change the fundamental result. I think tactical voting becomes much more likely if people think its going to be a close run election, whereas if electoral calculus is even faintly right, and i pray god it isnt. But thats not a criticism. Its just a hope, people will look at that and think, well, we can stick with the lib dems and we can stick with the greens because labours doing so well anyway. I think it may encourage some reform voters to stick with the conservatives and some people who are thinking of staying at home to come out and vote conservative, because really, a labour majority of 306 would be a one party state and would be a one party state and would be a one party state and would be very poor for government big majorities, as actually Michael Heseltine said, no, francis perm, im so sorry, francis pym said in the 1980s. Re election three yes, much to the fury of margaret thatcher, who then sacked him after the election for saying it, he had he was quite a lot of humble pie on the election broadcast that evening when he was asked that question again and again and again. But its true, very big majorities are not necessarily good for government, and a majority of 306 would be back to national government. Majority style of the 1930s. And that wasnt necessarily a government we should be proud of. We should be proud of. 1930s we had appeasement aside. We had quite High Economic growth and lots of house building. Oh, we did Neville Chamberlain as a chancellor was quite successful there. So as a Prime Minister, well, shall we remind ourselves now of what nigel farage had to say a little earlier in this programme, this is, of course , a figure that has is, of course, a figure that has been on the lips of most psephologists and political observers. What might nigel farage do . And what does he make of this extraordinary day in politics . Were scared. Hed heard rumours true or not, hed heard rumours true or not, hed heard rumours that i was going to go back into the front line political fray. And if he gave political fray. And if he gave me a six month run against the worst, most insincere conservative Prime Minister in history, against the most boring house party guests, as leader of the labour party , you know, and the labour party, you know, and even matthew laza wont disagree with that. Well, not much , i with that. Well, not much, i think no, i think reform was a very big factor in this decision. Well, thats what nigel had to say a little earlier. Should to say a little earlier. Should we get the labour perspective now . Im joined by stella. Santa guido, the former labour aide to Emily Thornberry , youve got Emily Thornberry, youve got a big smile on your face. Yes, a lot of labour activists, politicians, advisers have big smiles on their faces today. Are they right to see they were right to not let labour staffers go on holidays . It seems like they knew something was coming up. They knew something. Tory staffers didnt because, well, someone would say, you know, weve had 14 years to look forward to this day. Look back. Keir starmer knows that rishi sunak rather sorry, thinks that this is a better time for him to call the election. I think its a bit of a bad time. We have the net migration figures coming up. We have the Inflation Numbers coming out today. They were not as good as we expected. Theyre better than the European Union. Theyre better than the united states. Sure, inflation has fallen a little bit, but they are not what most economists expected to be. Most economists expected them to be better than in america. Inflation is going up in britain its going down. Do you think that people are feeling that though you have jeremy hunt saying that, you know, people have more disposable income in the last month than they had in the past . I dont think that the people are feeling this. Well. I mean, thats just an idea of feelings versus facts , idea of feelings versus facts, though it is a fact that average wages are rising faster now than inflation. Well, yeah, but people are going to vote on their feelings. And i think that their feelings is that this is going to be very, very bad for rishi sunak. I dont think that what he did today is going to help him ehheni today is going to help him either. I think it feels very rust. I feel it feels. I think it feels desperate and insecure. I think the images of him out in the rain, you heard keir starmer spending just about every Prime Ministers questions the last six months, saying, i call an election, call an election. Election, call an election. And now labours saying, oh, its so rushed, hes calling an election. Election. Farage rishi sunak all of this time knowing that its going to happen , saying its going to happen, saying its going to happen, saying its going to happen in the in the second half of the year and granted, okay, 1st of july second. Second part of the year. Waiting for the patience of a saint and im sorry, but this the images i think that the pubucis the images i think that the public is going to have this image of him out in the rain. I remember with ed miliband in 2015, you remember that photo of him and the bacon sarnie . Yes, that that was plaster all over the newspapers and everyone was saying, are the public will never vote for a guy who cannot even eat a bacon sandwich properly. Like, what do you think this is going to do to rishi sunak . I mean, jacob was saying earlier, you know, this is likely going to be a massive majority and this is not good for any party. And im kind of keen to agree. What are we going keen to agree. What are we going to do with all that power . You need to have some kind of balance. Well, lets throw that to jacob. It wasnt a good look. It was marvellous just to be drenched and just think. Just think of seeing in the rain. Its a positive , upbeat, rain. Its a positive, upbeat, wonderful film. One of the most popular films ever made. And rishi sunak was channelling his inner singing in the rain. And whats the other one . Raindrops keep falling on my head. I mean, thats what i was thinking and thats what i was thinking and thats such a wonderful film. You are doing an admiral. You are doing an admiral. I think its brilliant and he showed, stoicism and he carried on regardless. He showed the on regardless. He showed the stiff upper lip that the british love. And what about old keir starmer pasty faced keir starmer with a union jack growing out of his ears to pretend that he didnt support old whats his name, you know corbyn who wanted to leave nato . Get rid of our Nuclear Deterrent . Had the labour party criticised by the Equalities Commission for anti semitism, who was a friend of keir starmer when he was in his shadow cabinet, and now, oh no, no, we were never friends, you know , Martin Baxter, ive you know, Martin Baxter, ive got a feeling that during this Election Campaign, were going to hear a lot of conservatives talk a lot about the former Labour Party Leader and a lot of Labour Party Leader and a lot of labour activists talk about the former conservative party leader, liz truss. Is this going to be a phantom corbyn versus truss election . Oh, well, there could be a bit of that. I mean, lets remember why the conservatives won the 2019 election. Jeremy corbyn was a big factor in that. Getting brexit done was a factor. And the fact that Boris Johnson was very popular , it was johnson was very popular, it was the bbc factor. Brexit, boris corbyn. Brexit, boris corbyn. Exactly, and all of those factors are now disappeared so that the only thing that really gives the conservatives comfort is the fact that the centre left vote is still split between laboun vote is still split between labour, the liberal democrats and the greens, and the greens are growing, indeed. And so if are growing, indeed. And so if they were to unite, we ran some figures once the you know, labour was majority would be even larger. But then on the right, Boris Johnson was able to make sure that the, brexit party did not call serious electoral problems. Concerns do not have that happy situation at the moment because the reform party have taken a lot of their votes and they, the conservatives, need to get those back if theyre going to save something from this election. And yet, jacob, it seems that the conservatives are sort of straddling an ever widening crevice. On the one side, theres the sort of cushy Home Counties votes that are a little bit tempted by the lib dems or even nice mr can do uppity can sing the National Anthem , keir sing the National Anthem, keir starmer. And on the other side of the crevice, youve got the perhaps more traditional, more patriotic sort of, of tethered voters who are very tempted by reform. I think thats simplistic, actually. I think that, if you actually. I think that, if you look at where the tory vote has gone since the last election, opinion polls , its gone down by opinion polls, its gone down by about half of that, about 50 saying theyre staying at home, about 25 has gone off to reform, and about 25 has gone off to labour, the lib dems and the greens and i think that last 25 is lost to us. Thats not coming back in this election. Its the 75 of the 55 that we need to be appealing to. Can you win back those on those fractions . We can certainly come very close. Yes. Because we had such a big we had a big majority to start with. No, we had a big majority to start with. So inevitably when youre in office for a long time , there is going for a long time, there is going to be some attrition. And we must recognise that. And its going to be very hard for the tories to get the same majority as weve currently got. But if we can get back 75, 2019 away, well do very well in office. For nine years we have increased the majority by a huge degree in 1983. The conservatives have been in power for five years, four years. They increased the majority by a huge one on a lower share of the vote, as im sure you know, with a split opposition. Yeah, yeah. Thats right. So 1979 is the highest share of the vote that we get all the way, all the way through until 1997. Well, the share of the vote is obviously misleading because theresa may had much higher the vote. And thats and thats very but of course, its the difference between the two. Very rare to get the share of the vote. Vote up. Yeah and Jeremy Corbyn managed to maximise the labour vote in in 2017. But for the first five years we were in coalition for the next, two years we had a tiny majority. The two years after that we were in coalition with the dup. So the period supply, arrangement, supply, youre quite right. But the real penod youre quite right. But the real period of office is the last four years. Yeah, yeah, four and a half years. Its true. If youre looking at a the time in which the conservatives actually had a decent majority, it is only the last four years rather than all sorts of different deals and Hung Parliaments and minority governments and all the rest of it should we have a little listen to what rishi sunak had to say on the labour party and sir keir starmer earlier on today . He has shown time and time again that he will take the easy way out and do anything to get power. If he was happy to power. If he was happy to abandon all the promises he made to become labour leader once he got the job, how can you know that he wont do exactly the same thing . If he were to become Prime Minister . If you dont have the conviction to stick to anything you say, if you dont have the courage to tell people what you want to do. And if you what you want to do. And if you dont have a plan, how can you possibly be trusted to lead our country, especially at this most uncertain of times . Uncertain of times . Well, a rather wet rishi sunak there speaking on downing street this afternoon. Joining us now in the studio is Stephen Dorrell, the former health secretary, former conservative mp. Of course, now a lot of people have been referencing the 1990s optimistic conservatives reference 1992 pessimistic conservatives and pretty much everyone else. References 1997. Youre a veteran of both elections , which is it . Elections, which is it . Its 1997, you say i was a conservative member of parliament, former colleague of jacob in the house of commons. Im now a liberal democrat. Im part of the coalition the Informal Coalition that thinks that jacob was making the point. Theres only been a majority conservative government since 2019. Well, look at what theyve made of it. Well, i mean, i suppose to be fair, there has been a war in europe and a Global Pandemic. Theres been a war in in europe and a Global Pandemic , europe and a Global Pandemic, and theres also rishi sunak and theres also been totally unforgivable behaviour in downing street. Theres been the truss catastrophe, and theres been an attempted recovery that so far delivered nothing to the electorate. In 1997, there were, and its subsequently been revealed that there were backroom deals between the labour party and the liberal democrats in terms of if they dont fight particularly hard in one seat, the others wouldnt. Is hard in one seat, the others wouldnt. Is that going on today . Well, if it is, nobodys told me, but i certainly hope it is. Is that is that not a little bit . A bit sneaky . A bit sneaky . No, i dont think it is. Actually, i think all its doing is suggesting to voters in seats where the liberal democrats contest a the likely replacement of the conservative member of parliament. Why wouldnt you vote liberal democrat in order to have the change of government that you want to see . What is the difference between the liberal democrats and the labour party today . Well the biggest difference is that the liberal democrats dont have a corbynista wing waiting, waiting outside that i mean, that is a pretty, i suppose, theme. So let me follow that through. What happensin me follow that through. What happens in year two of the next parliament, when all governments get into trouble. Then a starmer led government will be blamed from within its own party in the same way as David Cameron was blamed from within his own party for the undoubted failures of government. So i think much safer if youre a liberal conservative, as i have always been, to vote for a liberal democrat rather than vote laboun well, stella, what do you make of this idea that actually keir starmer might. Well, believe what he says on this occasion and didnt believe what he said 3 or 4 years ago, but hes going to be sort of wagged around by the socialist campaign group. John mcdonnell and, Nadia Whittome and all the sort of far left labour mps that are Still Standing to be labour mps. You you guys really need to stop rubbing salt in the wounds of the socialist campaign group. The diminished dead in the water socialist campaign group. These are people standing labour party, labour mps. Do you realise that Jeremy Corbyn is not even a labour mp at the moment . The wind has been removed, is it just one person . Who do you think is going to follow john mauger is okay. How many are there . Richard burgon, John Mcdonald who im not going to list, not many. Like literally like three of them, but also four of them. We have just had a snap election called. Theres a six week campaign. We dont know who the candidates are. Okay. Keir starmer has shown you his trail. Hes hes his true colours. Hes centrist dad in chief. And hes going to have a massive majority. I mean labour hq is going to kill me for saying that labour will have a massive majority because im supposed to be saying, oh, guys, make sure you vote. Dont forget to bring your id, dont be complacent. But, but, but really , realistically, hes probably going to have a very big majority. Do you think hes going to give in to corbynistas who who are we stella. Like momentum is going to fall apart. How are we to know . Because there is an incontrovertible fact that rishi sunak continually points to. Back in continually points to. Back in 2019, keir starmer called Jeremy Corbyn his friend. He stood to survive. He had to survive. To survive. So he was lying because. And hes telling the truth now because keir starmer is ruthless. Hes a political operator. Thats what you need to do to survive in politics, in the same way that so many pro remain conservative Party Politicians did. The u turn after the brexit vote said, okay, im going to support brexit now, like liz truss for example, and so many other conservative Party Politicians in the same way. This is what it means to be a politician. This is what it means to have political decision. You have to lay low and you have to stay in the game. You have to stay in the game. You have to stay in the game. You have to stay in the game. You have to not take Stephen Dorrell back in. I of course, i understand that politics is the art of compromise , guys, but its also compromise, guys, but its also knowing when you cant compromise and when you mustnt compromise. And the reason why i think why i hope the liberal democrats do well, particularly in tory held seats in the south in tory held seats in the south in this election, is in order to create a stronger bulwark in parliament that people can vote for, not because its not labour or not tory, but because they believe in the kind of things that are being said. Heres one difference between the liberal democrats and the labour party that im surprised you havent brought up. Actually, the liberal party give me a chance yet. The liberal democrats have recently committed to rejoining the eus Single Market and customs union, something the labour party does not want to rejoin. There are lots of southern seats that the lib dems want to win off. Conservatives that did vote leave, that do want control of migration. And your policy is to migration. And your policy is to give that up . No, our policy is that to get to recognise that you wont solve the migration issue, but even more importantly, you wont rebuild our Economic Future unless you have Close Relationships with our key market, which is 22 miles away. Its got 30s left before ive got a cross back to gb news main studio. Jacob, a last word to you. The weather in somerset will as always, be excellent. Its what i say at the end of this houn what i say at the end of this hour, every single night. So i thought id better get it in before we finish. Well, there we go. Im very glad weve had an opportunity to say that the weather in somerset will be much nicer than the weather on downing street that we all had to endure a little bit earlier this afternoon. Were going to cross now to Patrick Christys, who is live for us in our paddington studios. Patrick what a day. I dont think either of us expected the course of events to flow as they have done. Yeah look, i have got a massive show for a massive day, tom. Weve dropped all the breaks. Were steaming straight through. Were steaming straight through. Were going to hear from rishi sunak here, from keir starmer. Well hear from nigel farage. Ive got top tory mps, top labour frontbenchers as well as expert pollsters. Rishi sunak has got visas down, net migration will be lower tomorrow as well. Inflation is down. But what a calamitous announcement that was. Its box Office Tonight and it is non stop 9 to 11 pm. Get the popcorn now and do not move for two hours. Well well have to get the popcorn out. Im delighted to be able to sit through and watch what youve got coming up because my goodness, the general election starts here. It starts on britains election channel. Its going to be on gb news for the next six weeks. Patrick, looking forward to your show. And my goodness, what a day it has been the first day of the general Election Campaign. Its only going to get tighter. Its only going to get tighter. Its only going to get tighter. Its only going to get more dramatic. My only going to get more dramatic. My name is tom harwood. Patrick christys is up next. But before all of that, lets get a latest update on the weather. A brighter outlook with boxt solar sponsors of weather on. Gb news. Hello. Good evening. Heres your latest gb news weather update brought to you by the met office. Its been a very wet day for many of us today, and the rain is going to continue for many parts as we go overnight. All this unsettled weather is in association with an area of low pressure that is gradually making its way northwestwards, but its progressing pretty slowly and the rain as a result is going to linger across many northern parts of the uk as we go through this evening and overnight. Its going to be heavy and persistent for many parts, which is why were going to continue to see rainfall totals building up, leading to some issues. Temperatures arent going to drop a huge amount because of the unsettled weather, even in the south, where its going to be largely dry, likely to stay in double digits as we go through tomorrow. Then a bit of a north south split across northern parts. It is going to be wet and well see rain through the morning. Two the rain doesnt look like it will be as heavy as through today , but because of through today, but because of the high rainfall totals weve seen recently, there could be some further issues making flooding a little bit worse in some places. Also, heavy rain across parts of eastern northern ireland, Northern England and north wales in particular. Like i said, some further ongoing issues, some more disruption to travel, possible. A drier story travel, possible. A drier story further south. Quite cloudy through the morning though i am expecting some bright or sunny spells to develop as we head into the afternoon, particularly across parts of east anglia and southeast england. Here theres a good chance of seeing some sunshine and in the sunshine here it should feel pleasantly warm. Temperatures likely to peak just about in the low 20s towards the southeast. Further north and west, where you have the rain, temperatures will be suppressed. Some places staying in single digits. And watch out for some blustery winds towards the northwest as we look towards friday, and there will still be some further outbreaks of rain, especially across northern parts. Though these look fairly light and there will be some dry spells in between. Further south, likely to stay mostly dry, and there may even be some bright or sunny spells developing. Saturday looks set to be the driest and sunniest day of the weekend, before a bit more rain on sunday for many. See you later. See you later. Looks like things are heating up. Boxt boilers sponsors of weather on. Weather on. Gb news. Its 9 pm. Im Patrick Christys and its on. Earlier today, i spoke with his majesty the king to request the dissolution of parliament. The king has granted this request and we will have a general election on the 4th of july. Sir keir starmer hits back immediately. Nights. The Prime Minister has finally announced the next general election , a moment the general election, a moment the country needs and has been waiting for. Ed davey shouts into the void. This government is out of touch , its out of excuses and touch, its out of excuses and its out of time. And richard tice launches reforms campaign from a hotel room only reform uks common sense policies that can now save britain. But could nigel farage put the cat amongst the pigeons by running reform, fight the election . Election . As for what i do, ill think about it overnight. About it overnight. Heres who youre voting for. Okay, look at these front benches from the tories and from laboun benches from the tories and from labour. Who do you trust to run the country . Weve dropped all the country . Weve dropped all the breaks tonight. We are rolling with this and we will be going live to downing street with our political editor, christopher hope. There he is, the man himself. And on my panel tonight, its the crack team of the director of the popular conservatives, mark littlewood, activist and landlord adam brooks and author and journalist rebecca reid. Oh yes. And the most annoying man in the world got lifted gaseous. This is not law. Get ready britain , here we law. Get ready britain, here we go. Go. Get your popcorn ready. Sit down and dont move for two hours. Next. Next. Good evening. Im sophia wenzler in the gb newsroom. The Prime Minister has addressed the first Tory Campaign rally after confirming a 4th of july general election in a statement outside downing street today, rishi sunak made the surprise announcement and urged the nafion announcement and urged the nation to stick with him over sir keir starmer addressing tory Party Supporters and his cabinet at Londons Excel Centre a short while ago, he took aim at the labour leader on the 5th of july. Either keir starmer or i will be Prime Minister and he has shown time and time again that he will take the easy way out and do anything to get power. If he was happy to abandon all the promises that he made to become labour leader once he got the job, how can you know that he wouldnt do exactly the same thing if he were to become Prime Minister . We conservatives have got a clear plan with bold action to secure our future board. So lets take that message and that vision of a secure future to every corner of our united kingdom. And lets show labour that the british people will never be taken for granted. Granted. Meanwhile, the labour leader, keir starmer, responded to the announcement, saying the election is the moment the country has been waiting for night. The Prime Minister has finally announced the next general election , a moment the general election, a moment the country needs and has been waiting for, and