Following Monday's Week 7 games, Nick Stevens provides update on playoff bubble
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HighSchoolOT managing editor Nick Stevens updates the football playoff bubble after Monday night's games, which included some tie-breakers and elimination games.
Show Transcript
Hello, everybody. Welcome to high school OT. I'm Nick Stevens, and I'm gonna do a brief update for you here on the football playoff projections after last night's games. It's Tuesday morning. We did have a bunch of games across the state last night on Monday night that some of them do did have an impact on the playoff projections. We broke some ties, which is always good. Uh, and now the bubble is again starting to come into a better focus, as we have just about four days left now in the regular season. So what I'm gonna do today is walk you through the different scenarios or the different bubbles in each of the four classifications. We'll look at some of the things that changed after last night, and, of course, we've already posted new playoff projections this morning. You can see those on the high school o t app right now, and we'll be updating these projections throughout the week. There will be games on other nights this week. Um, and of course, Friday, although the weather on Friday is looking kind of iffy, so I think we're probably going to see a bunch of games on Thursday this week. Um, so we'll be keeping my eye on that. That will obviously impact things. Um, so I'm gonna go ahead and share, um, the playoff projections. I'm gonna start with four a and move on down to one A. If you have questions at any point during this, feel free to comment on this video, and I will answer as many elements I can, although this is not going to be as long as the videos. We did, um, over the weekend. So let's go to the playoff projections. And I will zoom this in because I'm feeling pretty certain that you cannot see that quite as good as I can on the big monitor I have. All right, so we're looking at the four. A playoff projections were and specifically before a East. Right now you can see just one more tie left a break. As of now, Jack Britton, Richmond. Those two teams are not going to play each other during the regular season, so that may come down to a random draw. Uh And then, of course, the bubble is where we're focusing much of our attention. So let's go straight to the bubble in the Foray East. What you're seeing here, The teams that are highlighted in green, Those are teams that are projected in right now. Teams in red are projected out, and this is in order. Okay, So Wake Forest in Scotland, currently both three and 1750 winning percentages in their conferences. We project both of them. In that being said, Wake Forest has a really big game this week. So to Scotland, Um, and in fact, that Wake Forest Heritage game on Friday night could be an elimination game. The winner of that would likely get in. The loser would likely be left out. Um, so that's one that we're going to be keeping a very close island. Um, so we'll be watching that one, and then you can see here we have a big tie with 667 winning percentages, and there are too many teams with 667 winning percentages to get in Holly Springs is the team you see in red. But that's just because we have to have placeholders. Uh, they're just as likely to get in as any of these other teams here. Each team has about an 80% chance of getting in at the moment. Um, with the current situation, although this again will change. Although I can tell you Holly Springs is done playing conference games. Leesville Road is done playing conference games so these winning percentages are locked in. Heritage has to play Wake Forest. Um, if Heritage wins, there'll be three and 175 Oh, they'll move up hair. It just loses. They'll drop to 500 they will probably fall out of the playoffs. Um, Pine Forest had a big win last night against over hills to get to 667 so that puts them here. I believe Pine Forest is done playing, uh, at this point, let me I'm just going to double check that before I give out wrong information. But I think they are done. Yeah. So Pine Forest is done, so they're locked in at 0.667 So, really, the only teams that, uh, don't let me check Pine Crest. I have a hard time remembering all this off the top of my head. I know. That's hard to believe. Uh, let's see. Pine Crest has 71st on Friday night, So, uh, pine Crest can improve on its record, they will be favored to do so. Heritage can improve on its record. That's going to be a toss up with Forest, but everybody else is pretty much done here, so we'll have to watch and see how that transpires, which could also open the door for some of these teams. Here. Garner plays Apex friendship. Garner will be the underdog in that one, but a wind could put the Trojans into the playoffs. So we'll have to watch that, um, here as well. So that that's a look at the Foray East bubble. And you can see. Um, there's still a lot to be decided here. Let's move down to the four a. West. Um, I've gotten a lot of questions about the for a West today, and this one is also kind of interesting. You can see the 10.667 seems to be kind of the cut off line in in for a, um, you may or may not get in. If you're better than 667 you're likely to get in. If you're not, you're gonna be out. Um, so I actually think in the for a West This is your bubble here. Anything Hickory Ridge and up is the bubble anything Davian below, solidly out of playoffs. At this point, I think, um So, uh, let's take a look here East for South and West Forsyth are tied in their conference, both undefeated. They will not play each other, so that tie is going to have to be broken. Assuming it stands, they each have games on Friday night. But assuming that tie stands, that's going to be broken by a random draw. Um, and, uh, you know, it was for site is three. And oh, they'll they'll get in, uh, feast for site. I think there they'll be four. And if they win this week, they'll get in. Um, east for site has a game against Glen this week. You can see Glenn is tied with three other teams for the last spot in right now. Late northern quarter inch Hickory Ridge. Glenn is in a situation where they have to win to get in. I think West Forsyth is in a situation where West Forsyth has to win to get in at this point. Because if they lose, go to two and one, they're gonna drop to 667 And here's what we know about this, uh, northwest Gilford, Uh, is three and one, Uh, I believe they're done playing conference games. Now, if I'm not mistaken, um, let me see if I can. I was looking at this a little while ago. Uh, let's see, uh, Northwest Gilford's locked in. Yeah, they're They're in at 75 Green Hope is also 750.75 Right now they have a game against Jordan left. Great Hope will be the favorite to win that one, although they are coming off of a covid layoff. So maybe there's an opportunity there for an upset. Green hope. If they win, they would move up 2.800 with archery. Kelso. I don't see Northwest go for a green hope falling out at this point. Glenn again. 667 West first still 100 right now, but I'll also put them in 667 So that's two potential spots here where we can see things open up. But what you What you'll notice is Hickory Ridge and Porter Ridge, both 20.667 and they play each other this week. So one of those two teams is going to win and move up into the field. I think whoever wins, that will be, uh, we'll get in. Uh, late Norman place, North Mac. I think normal will be the favorite there. So assume they win. They will get in. That takes up the two spots. Uh, no spots left for anybody. That is 20.667 or below. So that's why the bubble looks that way here in the for a West real. Briefly, I'll just show you what we're looking at in terms of ties. Vance and Huff tied for first in their conference Easter Southwest for site tied for first in their conference, no other ties to speak of here. Uh, and really, the only team that I think is in any danger of missing out of those ties with the West for site. So, um, when and in the West Forsyth let's move on to the three. A east, And, uh, this one you'll notice if you were watching with us this weekend. Three East was one of the one of the, uh, or was the region that had the most to figure out. Uh, not so much anymore. We've figured out a lot of the, uh, a lot of the ties. In fact, there are no ties left for any of the automatic bids in the three East Lee County beat Triton last night to take, uh, that conference, Um, and then we also had pine forest. Um, beating. I'm sorry. That was 48 East. There was another game last night and three, and now I can't remember which one it was. I'll get to it eventually. I've been looking at too much of this stuff, so you can see no more ties left, though, in the automatic bids, there are some ties for the last spot in where you see Northwood down here. So let's go take a look at the bubble. Um, you can see Northern Guilford, currently right here. Um, at five. And one Eastern elements at four. In one. Um, and then, uh, Western elements, by the way, is at six. And, oh, those three teams, we're gonna have to watch them this week. Northern and Western elements play each other so we could have some. Um, interesting things happen in that league. Will have to keep an eye on that. You can see Terry Sanford at four and 1 800 winning percentage they are in right now. North would. This is where things get interesting. So if you're in, if you are 0.750 right now or better, uh, you've got to really pay attention this week because things are going to be, uh, difficult to pin down until after the season is over. So North would is three and one. Jacksonville is three and one Clayton, West Johnston play each other this week. They are both three and one. That will be an elimination game. The winner will have a shot to get in. The loser will be out, uh, and triteness three and one. Triton plays hard at Central this week. Hard in Central is two and two. There they will be out of the playoffs. Um, but they could play spoiler here for Triton. Uh, it's also possible that we get multiple teams that win and move up to 800 winning percentage and then we have a draw there. But there's a big logjam here and if you are any of those teams, you're pretty nervous this week because a lot of things have to happen, um, to get you into the playoffs, even if you win. So we'll be watching this very closely in the three East. In fact, I'm probably going to publish a column, hopefully, later today if I have time. Um, about this region in general, because this is, uh, this this is a tough one to really pin down. Um, let's take a look at three West real quick. Uh, still some ties to figure out here. In fact, we have some new ties in the three. A west that we have to figure out. Um, you see, Kings Mountain Crest tied for first statesman West Rome and tied for first Marvin Ridge and Charlotte Catholic tied for second in that conference, and I believe they play each other this week. Charlotte Catholic kind of dramatic win last night against Culbertson that lost last night would have, uh, put Charlotte Catholic out of the playoffs for good. Uh, and you can also see there's a tie here, um, for third place. That's North Henderson's conference, which, uh, they are tied with Nashville. Actually didn't put that on my spreadsheet, so let me do that real quick, so we know that actual is tied with North Henderson for third place. That's an automatic. Get out of that conference. Uh, and then we'll take a look at the bubble. This bubble is not quite as is daunting. I don't think, um, as some of the others, particularly the three East. But you can get an idea. Basically, that is your bubble. Um, and Asheville, since they are tied, but for at large purposes, that's the bubble right there. We'll be watching those teams to see what they do on Friday night. Those are the ones that have a chance to get in right now. Uh, in the to a east, the bubble is even smaller. Uh, I'll show you. There's lots of ties in the to 80 East right now, So we're gonna have to sort through these, um, to figure things out. Looks like I didn't clean some of these ties up, but you can see all of these teams tied for first in their conferences. A lot of these will get broken this week like Reidsville and barley, and the result is going to be the heavy favorite in that. But well, you know, we're going to wait until we see the results before we do anything with projections. So, uh, if you assume Bartley and she loses to reasonable, that's going to open the door for one of these two teams. Probably southwest on lower South Granville to move in. Uh, and, uh, Southwest Edge, Come another one will have to watch to see if if they hold on to that unbeaten record. Um, a lot of this is going to change this week. So you're going to want to stay with us on Friday night. Will be up all night Friday night, updating these playoff projections throughout the night. So, uh, make sure you download the high school t app will alert you when that information comes out. Basically, I think that this is your playoff bubble, and I I I almost ruled Wes Craven out. But I like to be kind of cautious before I do that, so we'll leave them in. But I think that's your bubble here in the to a east, Um in the to a west, you can see again multiple ties here that we still have to figure out this week. By the way, coaches and athletic directors, if you're watching if you guys have tiebreaker information ahead of time and you don't mind sharing that with me. I'd be very appreciative. We won't share it. We won't publish it until after everything's done, but it would help us tremendously with playoff projections. You can email me in stevens at wrl dot com. Um, let's look at the bubble in the to a West. Only one team is going to get an at large bid in the to a West Mount. Pleasant is currently unbeaten, and we have them in there, Um, as the at large bid that could potentially change. We will have to watch and see, but basically this is your bubble here. Um, for those teams, anybody who's tied for 1st, 750 or better would be your bubble in the to a west in the one a, uh, many fewer teams in the one a. So, um, in the one a east again still have some ties to break here. These will be broken this week, so we'll be watching those games closely and you can see the bubble. I think the I think this is pretty much set, although we can't technically rule out the one in three teams. Um, but, uh, I don't think you're going to see much change in the one in the East. You might see you know where people are, whether or not they get seated as first place teams or not that that might change. But outside of that, I don't think you're going to see much changing in terms of who gets in and who is left out in one day East in the two in the one a west again, lots of ties still to be broken here. Um, and we do have to figure out some of the bubble teams here in the one a West, because what you will see is basically all these teams have a chance to get in here. Uh, and we have a big log jam of 500 teams for the last few spots into the playoffs. So we'll have to watch that very closely, um, to see how these teams do this week and whether or not we have a bunch of draws that have to happen, um, for who gets into the playoffs in the one a West when it's all said and done. So that's a brief look at your playoff projections. The, uh, bubbles in each of the regions. I'm gonna look here and see. Um, what kind of questions we have. Uh, is there a reason they're putting Reidsville and Clinton in Northeast? I think that's northeastern on the same side. Uh, yes, that is a gauntlet. Um, so if you go back, you can go back and watch the Facebook live that I did on. I think that was Saturday night. I did one. Um, all my days are running together. It's up on high school, etc dot com. Right now you can go check it out. And I walked everybody through how the playoff process has done this year. There's also an explainer on the playoff projections page on high school AT T. But basically, what they've done is they have preassigned conferences to regions this year, so they will have, uh, mhm they Those conferences were all assigned to the east, and what they're doing is they're trying to, um, balance the number of teams that are in each region because there are so few playoff spots this year. We've cut the playoffs in half because of covid and reduction in seasons. and all that kind of stuff, so that that's why you're seeing that. And so, yes, that's all big, big gauntlet for those teams to run through. But it'll be fun to watch, at least for those of us who are fans, right? Um but that that's why that is you can get more detailed explanation on on high school. So you go back and watch the beginning of that video I did on Saturday. Um, and you'll see that there. Uh, let's see. Looking at Star Mount on the one a west bubble, Let's go see here. Um, Star Mount is 500. So star mounts in that 500. Um, you know, logjam. There's six teams here that are 500 for three spots in the playoffs. Now, I will say that this this could change a little bit. Um, there could be fewer spots. There could be more spots for 500. Teams will have to see how that plays out based on what happens in in other, um, regions. But you go here and look at the Mountain valley conference. Uh, let me scroll that up so you can see it. You can see Star Mount is gonna have to get an at large bid. They're not going to be eligible for an automatic bid out of the Mountain Valley. Um, I will pull up the Mountain Valley conference here again. Like I said, last time we were using MaxPreps data because that's what the NCHS a considers to be official. So if there are in, if there are things that are incorrect in in here, then are David on our plate, projections are going to be incorrect. So let's look at Star Mount. You can see their game Friday. Is that Ashe County? Ashe County six and oh, um, I would think that Ashe County is going to be the favorite in that one, which is going to drop Star Mount 23 and four, assuming that is indeed what happens that would not star mount out of the playoffs. Um, uh, I would imagine pretty solidly out of the playoffs at that point. Let's see here. That would put them at 0.428429 winning percentage, so that would put them below 500. Yeah, I think Star Mount has to win this week to get in based on what I'm seeing right now. Why is Holly Springs with the four? And to record not the playoff projection? That level is with the four and two record they play this week will have an impact. So let's answer the first part of the second part of that question first. No holly springs and level playing this week will not have an impact. Um, everything is being done by conference winning percentage right now, not overall winning percentage. They're in two different conferences, so that will not have an impact unless they are in a tie with each other for the last spot in or something like that. Um, then they could perhaps use that as a tie breaker head to head. So I guess I should say it won't have an impact, but in terms of winning percentage, it will not, uh, legal road in Holly Springs. So don't This is kind of confusing. Um, in fact, why don't I just pull this up on high school and t instead? Um, and show it to you here because this is a little bit cleaner than the spreadsheet that I'm showing you. So, um, this is a foray east. And what you're seeing on Zoom in a little bit closer. What you see here in the wild card bids. So what this means is Scotland or Wake Forest will get in first. Then it'll be Scotland or Wake Forest second. Then it will be Holly Springs or Heritage or Legal Road or Pine Forest or Pine Crest. Next, and then another one of those group and then another one from that group and then another one from that group. And then the last one from that group would be left out of the playoffs. They'd be the first team out. So we're not projecting that. That weasel is in and Holly Springs is out. They both have equal chances of getting in. It's just gonna be done by a random draw, and we can't project that. So, um, what we do is we say it's going to be this team or this team or this team or this team instead of saying it'll be this team because, um, you know, we've got a pretty good handle on the playoff projections, but not good enough that we can project random draws, uh, in for a what happens if Heritage loses to wake forest this week and has two losses. Um, so again, uh, spoke about this a little bit earlier? Um, I think based on what I see right now, I think that game, the Wake Forest Heritage Game on Friday night is an elimination game. I think the winner will get into the playoffs, and I think the loser will be out based on what we see at the moment. So I think that's gonna be be the case. Are they subdividing this year? If so, what? The projections for teams on the bubble change a lot. Yes, they are subdividing this year. No, it will not change anything on the bubble. Um, the way it's being done, um is the NCHs a is determining the 32 qualifiers from each classification. Uh, so there will be 32 483 a two A and one A, uh instead of 60 for, like, normal. And then once they have the 32 qualifiers, then they're going to take the school size of each of the 32 qualifiers, and they're going to split them in half. So the largest half of the 32 will go to the double a classification, the smallest half of the 32. We'll go to the small, a classification. So, uh, it won't impact the bubble at all. But yes, they will be subdivided. And the reason we're not subdividing right now on high school and T is because there are way too many potential changes in terms of who gets in and a lot of these ties that would have an impact on it. So what we're doing is we're just telling you who who we can project in, uh, and in what order and who's on the bubble, because again, there's no real certainty that we have that allows us to project things. Um, subdividing. I was hoping to do that this weekend and provide some context. It's just too messy right now. I'll look at it again today after we've updated least playoff projections and see if anything has changed. But, um, it's just it's really, really, really difficult to, uh, to try and pin that down at the moment. Um, hopefully on Friday night, we'll be able to do that for sure, but I'm going to take another look at it today and see if we can't at least provide some context around who might be big A and who might be double and who might be single. Act the two way west and close to ST Pisgah and Mount Pleasant. Need to win in order for Pyszka to get in. Let's see, uh, Mount Pleasant is let's see here, tied with West Stanley right now, uh, three and one for yes. Mount Pleasant needs to win, and Pisgah needs to win. Um, and you would all sit well if Pisco wins? Yeah. So Pyszka could still get an automatic bid because, um, there's a three way tie for first place, assuming the information on MAXPREPS is correct, Which, if it's not somebody feel free to correct me, and I will address it. But there's a three way tie for first place in the mountains. Six Hendersonville, Brevard Biscuit. Right now, um, so people could get an automatic bid to the playoffs. We'll have to see now in terms of, uh, at large bid. I believe you're correct that Mount Pleasant would need to win. That would make West Stanley three and one pistol we need to win. That would make them four and one. Uh and then I'm not sure who. Let's see, uh, coming into the mountains. Six conference real quick and see who plays who this week. So Pisco plays Brevard. Um, so, yes, they need to be Brevard. That would make Brevard three and two and drop them down physical before and one MT. Pleasant would be five. And Oh, and West san will be three in one. So you are correct. If all that happens based on what we have today, Pyszka should get it. So, um all right, well, that is all of the questions I have in here right now. I hope that helps. Everybody will continue to do these periodically this week. And I'll imagine we'll probably be doing one of these in the middle of the night on Friday night once we get projections done, um, and, uh, we will try and keep you updated. So again, there are games each night this week. I believe we will update the projections each time. Things may not change for your team every time, but we will try and provide updates regularly, so make sure you follow high school itty on Twitter. Follow me. Next season s H s H o t on Twitter and download the high school. It's the APP will send you alerts on the app every time we update the playoff projections so that you are up to date. And, of course, we'll have full coverage on Saturday of seating Saturday when the NCHS A releases the official brackets, which is what we're all waiting for. So thanks for joining us here on high school OT. We'll be back later this week to do this again. Have you? Afternoon, everybody?