Maria good friday morning. Thanks very much for joining us i hope you are having a great friday morning it is friday, march 8, 8 00 a. M. On the east coast hot topic of the hour state of the union or Campaign Speech President Biden delivered third state of the union touching taxes crime abortion guns. The stadiuming stadiuming address sounded like a rally democrats interrupted several times to break out in chants of four more years biden tried to convince americans old age isnt a problem 81yearold had 80 exclamation points this his speech almost one for every year he has been alive. I know i may not look like it i have been around a while i have been told i am too old. How old we are, it is how old are ideas. Biden kicked off address talking ukraine january 6 abortion before the economy he bragged about it saying u. S. Economy is the envy of the world also called out snickers without addressing the fact people cant afford to feed families but did have time to talk about raising taxes. Does anybody really think tax code is fair do you really think the corporations need another two trilliondollar taxbreak i sure dont. A biden did go off script to jeer gop over not supporting his border bill to recognize tragic murder of laken riley killed, by an illegal immigrant. The bipartisan bill toughest set of Border Security reform weve ever seen. A you dont think so . Oh, you dont like that bill huh . Have that conservatives got together said it was good bill . I will be darned that is amazing. Lincoln riley innocent young woman killed by illegal, that is right. How many thousands of people being killed illegals. Today a lot of democrats are scolding hum for calling illegal migrant, illegal. Explain that democrats are complaining he called an illegal immigrant illegal . Yeah nancy pelosi said he shouldnt have used that word he should have said i am documented, other democrats come out to say you shouldnt call illegal migrant illegal they are undocumented they ti the term is racist. A thanks very much for being here hillary went through obvious things about the speech, how would you assess state of the union last night. If Democrat Party is were upset the president for using the word illegal, imagine if he would have used prong pronoun . Would be in trourp that was his focus on left lathering up left like a progressive pep rally if i closed my eyes in chamber i would have thought i was at Chicago Democrat Convention not state of the union this was opportunity for him to be president of all americans, address the real needs priorities of American People, and, by the way, not Vladimir Putin the vacation of ukraine it is invasion at the southern border by drug kortels this president surrendered to not a Climate Crisis a cost of living crisis if intention to speak to base that was bad strategy i think trump will do enough o to energize his base. He is bleeding from middle a disaster come november. Maria that is what i have been saying this morning this was more a Campaign Speech than anything else, i did not as a citizen of this great country did not walk away, understanding, what the true state of our union is, right . The true state of our union has to do with a wideopen border, migrant crime on rides, inflation that is eating up our salaries he didnt talk much up of about any of that. No, he didnt. He as 50year politician master political illusionist he couldnt suspend the reality that American People have suffered from under his lawlessness incompetence it was list of things i mentioned along with, the geopolitical disarray destabilization his weakened feckless foreign policies made world less safe not just streets of america or border but yeah he decided to open up with ukraine, as if that was the biggest threat, he really doubled down on his tax and spin policies, as if the American People believe at this point that more government is going to be a solution to our problems. They want Less Government less washington more freedom they want a new president. So somebody going to listen to them address real needs. Unfortunately it was laced with politics he leaned into the things that divide our polarize the country play with populous raising taxes on rich dividing divide and conquer rich versus poor white versus black homosexual, heterosexual, divide and conquer, drug, guns abortion to not connect dots to 40year high inflation we are all feeling. So that yeah. Again this is a president , that is obviously, disconnected, from everyone else in this country, suffering under his self indisasters, not concerned about dorito chips in the bag concerned about enough to pay mortgage doubled under him because of inflation Interest Rate hikes doubling down gasoline, no one is buying it again speaking to a very small bloc of people, on the religious left, and those are only people i think that walked away feeling better about our country. And it is a missed opportunity our country is divided, and were suffering struggling, he was driving wedges, trotting out the items on progressive pet project liz instead of a statesman leader at a time that is what this country needs. Talk about what you all can do about it he wants to raise taxes on corporations, and the highest are iners to Budget Committee released fiscal year 2025 budget rflgs promising to balance budget in 10 years reduce deficit the committee for responsible budget put out statement the budget includes important objectives at the same time the goal reaching a balanced budget in 10 years unrealistic counter productive. How do you respond. I think what is not just unproductive but not to have a budget at all last four years under democrat leadership didnt bother to pass a budget out of committee this is a fiscal framework to get this country back on fiscal footing to not just tamp down on inflation reining in spending but stave off a debt crisis, of the greatest economy in the world in america but National Security our childrens future we are providing leadership this president providing empty words state of the union we are taking action to revive fall state of the union it is fragile dire unsustainable, weve got a blueprint a path to put us on balance and beyond. And i think the American People again they want and need this kind of leadership, not more of the same, by the way, this whole notion of taxes, those taxes will be passed on even higher cost so if you think inflation is bad now wait until you tax our job creators, we lower taxes when our american job creators had highest business taxes until the free world higher than communist china. This is where biden wants to go we want to unleast prosperity we believe all boats rise on tide of prosperity opportunity. An important point we know when President Trump signed into law tax cuts economy shot up more Economic Growth because of more paying taxes, even though taxes were cut with you final word. Fiem word we didnt just see that we saw, the lowest poverty rates in recorded history lowest Unemployment Rates people have bigger paychecks more opportunity, that is the Free Enterprise Great American economy that is what people need. Thank you, well be right back. 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And if you want a successful business, all it takes is an idea, and now becomes the future where you grew a dream into a reality. The all new godaddy airo. Put your Business Online in minutes with the power of ai. Wall street didnt build america not gad guys didnt billed it the middle class built the country and you the mull class under my plan nobody earning less than 400,000 dollars will pay an additional penny in federal taxes they havent seen yet in fact it is during pandemic cut back millions working families cut Child Poverty in half the way to make tax code fair make Big Corporations today begin to pay their fair share in 2020, 55 of the Biggest Companies in the america paid made 40 billion dollars paid zero in federal income taxes Big Companies have to pay minimum 50 time to raise corporate minimum tax to at least 21 every Big Corporation finally begins to pay their fair share. There you have it more campaigning, from President Biden during his state of the Union Address last night, vowing to raise taxes what he is calling Big Companies, this is Corporate America in general latest tax plan raising corporate minimum tax to 21 for firms reporting more than one billion dollars in profits of joining me host of making money with Charles Payne author of unbreakable investor Charles Payne is here great to see you. Good morning. Maria i think interesting added big to this Big Companies Big Corporations as if they fight a small group of Companies Make a billion dollars in profits of billion dollars in profits of is not big, that is this is all companies he is raising corporate taxes going to pass that pass it on. How awkward to say bragg about things in the economy that is all happening on their low tax regime, right . You cant say this is amazing economy never been better, by the way, happening with low corporate taxes, right, those low corporate taxes may be why people getting hired maybe that is why job market pretty good low corporate taxes maintain pg corporations can take money do things use to invest in a. I. Maybe that is why the stock market is well, we can logically connect dots i think, everyone has feels like, really, like we all support our Small Businesses but any time you think for instance 1,000 billionaires arent doing this, that alternate minimum tax in late 1960s small article written about 200 families paid no taxes coping went crazy, passed alternative minimum tax, zillions americans paying alternative minimum tax these backfire we have trillion dollars of dollars proverbial drop in bucket deflecting blame blaming unquote Big Corporations that was triggered by excess fiscal spending this war on food for instance, so yesterday kroger released their earnings, so kroger largest pure supermarket play out there store sale if you take gasoline stations down 8 10 of a percent, increase associate wages averaginging average hourly wage dreefrs nearly 19 dollars, by the way, 25 dollars total compensation up 33 in the last five years you brought this up where do you make that up you have to raise prices how much have they raised prices, operating profits their profit margin from 2 to 3 that sounds greedy to me go shut kroger down . It is nuts. Are are you are making my point, because what i am talking about is the fact that he is saying i am going to raise taxes on Big Companies but that is completely misleading not just Big Companies, he wants to raise taxes on any Company Making a billion dollars in profits, face it a billion dollars in profit is a Midsized Company the annual profits of of kroger, 31 billion dollars in 2023. Is to General Electric 17 billion dollars, being mcdonalds 14 billion dollars, when you talk about one billion dollars you are talking about small business, talking about midsized business if you raise taxes on small, midsized business they are going to pass it on this is a Campaign Speech he used raising taxes on rich, that is what he leaned into thksz passes muster, with the populous, campaigning. It was all about deflection you and i talking about this not talking about the true source of this inflation, this modern monetary theory 1. 9 trillion dollars not talking about really dont want us to talk about it is a failed experiment but they love another bite at the apple do it over Big Government has to be funded we know that Big Government writing checks here and there the notion you can sort of tax avoid inflation folly we learned the hard way they are not going to stop people need to realize that i think most people want to say dont give me free checks let me allow me to make a lot of money earn myself keeps it. The problem he knows he has got to mention inflation, but also knows when he mentions inflation going to be quite obvious too many dollars chasing too few goods too many dollars all dollars he and democrats spent last three years six, seven trillion dollars borrowing and spending took us to 40year high inflation his next best idea is to just blame it on companies blame it on rich even though highest earnings already pay bulk of taxes in this country isnt it awkward that he has to say pay your fair share nothing his son did not hunter biden did not pay fair share how awkward. I was thinking the same thing my man i cant believe talking about people being greedy that would o even trip off the tongue. To your point he cant blame anyone else wont blame anyone else they with with believe wholeheartedly in this doesnt boil to economics i think what people need to understand it boils down to power theyve to wrap in it veneer, issue it boils down town limited power how you keep that power, listen, we cant brag about being envy of the world and keep complaining about a capitalist nation at the same time. Maria you said spoton last nights speech about him staying in Power Campaign didnt care with american citizens if he did would have mentioned the border first and inflation second, instead of ukraine. But he cares more about holding on to power grip on power you know you are with us rest of the hour jobs friday our february jobs report out in 8 minutes stay with us. Well be right back. Her uncles unhappy. Im sensing an underlying issue. Its tmobile. It started when we got him under a new plan. But then they unexpectedly unraveled their price lock guarantee. Which has made him, a bit. Unruly. You called yourself the uncarrier. You sing about price lock on those commercials. The price lock, the price lock. So, if you could change the price, change the name its not a lock, i know a lock. So how can we undo the damage . We could all unsubscribe and switch to xfinity. Their connection is unreal. And we could all unexperience this whole session. Okay, thats uncalled for. I am hearing comments on the brink, our economy is envy of the world 15 million new jobs just three years, unemployment. [cheers and applause] at 50 year lows, [cheers and applause] record 16 million americans starting Small Businesses instead sf importing foreign products we are creating american jobs, right here in america where they belong. President biden mentioning jobs in america last night during the state of the Union Address, take a look at fwuts this morning wait the february jobs report out in about two and a half minutes, economists expecting 200,000 there is market into jobs numbers down 111 on dow nasdaq down 3 the s p down a fraction, the expectations, 200,000 nonfarm payroll jobs expected added to economy in february Unemployment Rate expected to hold steady, 3. 7 get allhandsondeck joining me heerj foundation economist former trump economic adviser moore, navellier chief je. Officer Louis Navellier, julia pollak Charles Payne john lonski Cheryl Casone great to see everybody thank you for being here steve moore kick us off with your assessment of jobs what we might here in two minutes time with february jobs report. Well maria, great to be with you, just one stat based on what was said last night state of the union i just did numbers ready for this almost two out of every three jobs that biden was take credit for last night almost 65 of them were jobs that had been created by trump that had been shut down during covid so not that great a performance, jobs when you consider that most were comeback jobs. Maria yeah, there was a lot of misleading statements in that Campaign Speech last night for sure, i think you are spoton in terms of the jobs he keeps talking about it as if new, 15 million new jobs he created. We know how many went away because of covid julia, youre in a position to know what jobs options are how would you assess employment. On line job will postings down to precovid levels slightly lower ask jolts report, hires way more before pandemic, quit also very reliable indicators how much Economic Opportunity there there really is in this which i. Maria you are saying is not as much opportunity . What is the point there. The labor market slowed under weights of very high Interest Rates, many measures show cooler now than before pandemic, not hotter even there are some indicators like job options very, very high, those are not consistent with the other more measurable indicators. Looking at Piper Sandler report john lonski expecting 230,000 jobs created average Hourly Earnings to be up 2 10 of a percent. Average Hourly Earnings up 4 1 2 from a year ago in january. That year toyear growth rate has to approach 3 if were going to succeed bringing core inflation to 2 . Dow jones industrial average down 200 points going into this number, going to be crossing right now, Cheryl Cheryl you got the number. Cheryl came in 275,000. Only looking for 200,000 that is much hotter than expected we saw this again, are we saw this in january saw this in december seeing it again. The Unemployment Rate went up to 3. 9 . Higher 3. 9 the expectation was 3. 7 . 229, is revision, excuse me for january, karoline . Okay, i knew this was coming i wanted producers to give it to me right away we have revised january jobs report, down from 353,000 to 229,000. That is a massive, massive revision, i wanted that out i knew i had a feeling was coming we talked about it yesterday the markets are reacting, let me give you other pieces of the report now government jobs, 52,000 government jobs, added, labor force participation, 62. 5, that is in line with what we had, last month. Average Hourly Earnings, yearoveryear, 4. 3 . Pretty much in line looking for 4. 4. As far as other jobs private sector jobs, that also came in much hotter than expected that came in at 223,000. We were looking for 160,000, there. The average workweek 34. 3, that is in line. And, again, i gave you that number quick factory jobs a lot of factory jobs in this report we lost 4,000 factory jobs in this report market reacting i dont know if revision or hotter than expected numbers guys you know i will let you figure that out quick i do want to give you a sense what have the government specifically is saying as to where all of this came from, job gains occurred in healthcare, government, food services, drinking places, social assistance transportation you warehousing sending about a to you i am going through numbers. Maria are a reversal in stocks off the lows of the morning now down about 19 points nasdaq and s p positive up 31 on nasdaq s p up 10 1 2 as market continues the euphoria on the heels of this report. Louis navellier youve been expecting a chilling in the economy strong stock market your assessment here . Well obviously, manufacturing still in recession still shedding jobs contracted, 16 monthsward revision in january are not that surprising biggest month of seasonal jobs glad got it right for lack of better record the rise in employment clearly workforce is growing rides in employment big thing might put pressure on fed i think that is a good thing. Maria Charles Payne reaction. I would say the Market Reaction is probably to that Unemployment Rate, that is what thank you know, chair powell referred to Unemployment Rate, 3. 9 a big, big jump a lot of people thought would be 3. 7, 3. 6, again not enough people entering the labor force ordered for a quote unquote Strong Economy i think part is the jobs concentrated in what they call hightech these Hightech Industries arent necessarily best paying out there, of course, face value hard to take overall number face value to the point not just january you know revised this has been going on a long time ll making this a joke, but it does move policy, policy moves markets right now i think initial believe, belief is Unemployment Rate standing out most 3. 9 close to 4 fed starts to maybe consider a victory lap. Maria i think this is the really a good point john lonski how is its possible we get this substantial revision in january, when we got january numbers out last month i remember you questioning it, 353 jobs created in january not look oh, oops it wasnt 353 it was 229,000 how are we supposed to believe that number with all revisions. You are right on there my goodness a miss 14,000 jobs, ridiculous, why publish why not maybe the average instead of a an estimate for the latest available markets kind of crazy you cant have any confidence or trust in these numbers. I want to add one thing, seems as though government had a lot to do with jobs growth, in the month of february, we had 52,000 new government jobs, that is on high side for that category moreover another big gain employment in healthcare related Industries Healthcare jobs, for the most part nowadays perhaps supported by Government Spending on medicare and med aide. At the revised december, too 229 really come on, guys 290,000, initially read for december 333,000. Now december is 290,000 you know. Can i make a point, important point, this is something that weve been talking about month after month there are two surveys that are done that are released one is establishment, so if i am reading numbers correct we lost in the Household Survey i am looking on the fly that has been happening seeing a divergence. 187,000. What was it. 184,000. Yeah. So what is going on charles . Weve seen this over and over again. That one survey telling us one thing the other i think one of the reasons for that is Small Businesses arent hiring the pace they were because not captured in the establishment survey. Maria also expecting their taxes to go up so theyve got to get ready for that, but look. Charles, if youve got government, holding strings pulling strings , of course, a better showing than reality i am wondering if this is the case all year until election day in government creating all jobs, making numbers look so great government could also impact the price of oil, get gasoline down before the election, by putting more, pressure on saudis to pump more putting more, expectations of more oil on the market look. Should we buy all this going into election or just expect government heavy hand in all numbers. You go through Jurassic Park suspend this, they flood zones how much money this time to flood zones, 1. 9 trilliondollar bill that President Biden through, by the way, in state of the union speech he said he saved economy, that moment household, most impressive corporate Balance Sheets most impressive not economic freefall a chunk of money sent to States States held back a lot of money to put to work that is what were seeing when you see 52,000 jobs all this stuff is by design, maria all by design. Maria i i figured that out at this point you are right, yet this market is on fire, look at the issue market since ends of the year last year talking about doubledigit moving Louis Navellier i want your take you have been bullish on stocks i saw a stat nasdaq up 8 1 2 yeartodate s p up better than 8 yeartodate dow industrials up almost 3 yeartodate what are we learning about money market assets, hit a fresh record high in the last week to 6. 08 trillion dollars, now i am not talking about record money market assets at 6. 08 trillion dollars, that was the week to march 6, doesnt that mean there is a lot of powder pooeb put to work if six trillion in money market accounts . What do you think . Yeah plenty of crash to propel this market for a couple years actually. The real reason off to start earnings better than analysts expected so a lot of pause wroifshgs going on next two quarters easy year more strong earnings a leadership change also. The deflation in china hurting apple, tesla a most magnificient 7 money moving around now obviously, super my knowledgero nvidia market leaders super micro is not in, yet goes in have march 1 the weight loss drugs are very popular we have new leadership underway, big small cap rally too, a lot of stuff going on strong dollar does tend to impede multinationals fuel domestic small cap rally. Posture points thank you for that i want your take julia at zip recruiter i mentioned online job numbers lower what can you tell us the most important indicators you look at to give you health of the job market. Look how tight labor market is past year weve seen applications go up almost 30 that is a sign labor market is slackening what we see day in increase in Unemployment Rate. Where are the opportunities . Julia. A over past year, six months 75 , threequarters all jobs add in government healthcare Leisure Hospitality main drivers of growth government is running fiscal policy hot that is creating a lot of jobs, surprisingly not seeing those jobs in manufacturing, yet despite, the Enormous Growth in spending on manufacturing construction building factories across the country we havent seen that tumble into manufacturing jobs just yet. Maria we will watch that, charles your thoughts in terms of what more important indicators to look at to give you a better sense if we keep cometh revisions how are you going to understand, where true state of the economy is . Quite frank you are not i used a quote from, a couple months before Great Recession he said economists arent that great predicting this we believe next few quarters going to be good unemployment was 4. 3 , precede to do go over 10 so you know, really the focus is on how fed interprets this i think fed going to zero in on 3. 9 unemployment a big marker i think jay powell going to feel better right now betting many start to shift back to maybe earlier rate cuts not right now, about four maybe shift back to may be five. This market, fractionally moving now, you said it was really the employment rate Unemployment Rate rather that was. Remember north of 4 fed gets ready to take victory lap. 4 Unemployment Rate would be a positive your take john in terms of what most important from this report right now. Well, you know, if we have a tight labor market that is reflected in wage growth at 4. 3 yearoveryear wage stroeth is strong we have to remember some of this fast wage growth is byproduct of minimum wage ticks a lot of minimum wage ticks are squeezing smaller businesses i am thinking restaurants in particular i have a friend a neighborhood bar and grill telling me because of the minimum wage hike now paying dishwasher 1,000 dollars a week, 52,000 dollar a year job, just to wash dishes. Works hard but who would have thought that would be the case. Maria i think a really good point you are making i was at a schwartzman conference the other day interviewing chairman ceo of blackstone, who told me, blackstone, of course, is largest owner of commercial real estate in the world. And steve told me rent has stopped going up, rent is not an issue he knows for a mack he is largest commercial real estate owner said rent is not going up, about what is a problem for business right now is the cost of labor that is what were seeing once again in this report. Cheryl it is having, International Womens day why dont we talk about women, what are you seeing in terms of members. Cheryl good news ladies out there job market because the data right here Unemployment Rates for adult women teenagers, kind of stayed as it jobless rate adultmen whites blacks asians hispanics somewhat flat if you look at labor market market it is a Tech Industry were seeing predicted layoffs the Labor Department not only game in up to we chauld about this yesterday Challenger Gray christmas report we have seen layoffs in Corporate America private sector layoffs highest since february 2009, are when was that that was financial crisis i think that 4 Unemployment Rate charles mentioned is a key factor here weve been sitting under 4 for 25 straight months, if you hit 4 that could happen next month very easily, that would be the inflation story that would be fed story i have another Something Else i think market looking at right now because now the bets are increasing were getting a june rate like not a cut, thank you, sir. Yes, a cut, getting one in june, that is what the market wants all market wants right now it is more of a possibility now. Maria i agree i think we probably will get a cut in june i dont see a lot more cuts beyond that louis your take on that . Because, if the fed starts cutting Interest Rates in september, october, going into election going to be criticized for interfering in president ial election. They dont want to be in spotlight President Trump will drag them in the spotlight he is very critical, i think were getting update with do the plot the next fomc meeting a new survey see how many cuts they want a clearer picture but definitely cut by june, lets steve what else do you take i away from this report this morning . So i want to make three quick points number one, for the last 12 months, 10 of those 12 months ready for this 10 of those past 12 months had to revise numbers downward i dont know what is going on here we keep getting headlines of great jobs reports, right . Oh, we got it wrong, by the way, i am not you go accusing anybody of misbehavior but something is wrong the way doing these numbers on average you shouldnt see that kind of track, second of all, let me say one thing positive about thank you know where we are right now one thing that biden said last night that was true. It is true that United States today has strongest economy there is no question about it if you look has what is happening in europe, germany britain france, japan, china, not growing, so it is true that you know we are the way i like to put it maria we are the least rotten apple in the cart that is something that is important to cheer. Finally, maybe one of the most important points even with the good jobs report, that weve had, the average family maria, the people right in the middle, since joe biden came into office is 2,000 dollars poorer than they were in real terms than when Trump Left Office for the middle class this is not a good economy it is an economy made them struggling much more difficult for people to make ends meet and pay bills, let me one other quick point, when youve got, youve been in covering business for so many years maria, if you you have a business losing two trillion dollars a year, would that business be hiring workers . Have why in the hell hiring all Government Employees we should be massive reductions in Government Employment if doing anything sane in washington the fact keep hiring more and more government workers a if heing for the economy not a positive. Maria they will arrive it right after the election revisions, the elections is over were done with that you also have to look ahead to see some of the policies that joe biden talked about last night to get a sense what is ahead because, louis, john lonski i want you both to address this if we see taxes go hire, doesnt that put added strain on companies they are going to have to pay for that going to have to pull back somewhere else whether jobs or expenses. Of course. Should be set at rate make it taxes, we put more than in the bank banks buy treasurys you want to set taxes with velocity money maximized prosperity grows, i dont know what that rate is but not john lonski. Let not forget who owns corporations shareholders own corporations many people with 401 k plans, are you know they own these corporations indirectly they would suffer if corporations are taxed more heavily, also the workers might be seeing small wage hikes as a result of higher taxes. Maria yep cheryl were talking inflation next week cpi coming out ppi next week, that is, of course, going to be, one of the most important issues to watch for market, expectations there on cpi, what you are expecting to be your next important topic to zero in on. Cheryl i mean january the hl was 3. 1 yearoveryear, it is expected to tick down slightly, that is the expectation, the problem is, with inflation reports keep seeing over and over is that shelter component i am glad youve been pointing out what mr. Schwartzman said to you the other issue inflation report, Energy Prices as things continue to play out in the middle east, and especially with russian irran yorn oil hitting the market i think that that is going to be another story we are going to have to follow Energy Prices, and not that anybody wants to see that in Election Year if incumbent administration watching as Energy Prices i want to say quick, the government numbers, not just federal level we saw job increases in this report but also the local level, as well. And i think that is interesting, you know education, was another component government number but 52,000, the social services jobs, government money this is stimulus known this isnt true job growth i dont like that, that is just me. Maria yeah, it is not just you actually stimulus has been one of the main issues for the federal reserve, steve moore, a fed is trying to get inflation down but also faced with this tsunami of spending joe biden didnt acknowledge it he is right now trying to forgive more of Student Loan Debt make no mistake that is more stimulus leading further to inflation. Look there is no doubt about this, every economist knows that when we have that massive increase in spending bidens first couple years that was the match that lit the fire of the 9 inflation we had in 2022. I am looking at numbers im sorry i dont believe that weve weves leigted the head of dramaticallying op i think weve to be attentive Commodity Prices kp continued to rise i think premature to talk about, cutting rates right now, again i go back to this point yeah if you look at you know people, in silicon valley, and wall street so one doing pretty well but people at the dinner table in the main street america are poorer because remember prices are up about 19 , over the last three years, most americans havent gotten a 19 pay raise. Right part negative story of this economy, is the fact inflation is cutting into our salaries. We are spending much more than we thought would on food so julia talk to us about average earnings, average earnings in the report what are you seeing in general in terms of salaries out there where people are looking for a job . In real terms wages fell for 25 straight months growing since may, still quite a lot of catchup to do. What were seeing in new posted wages coming down quickly as labor market does slacken hopefully workers will continue to catchy up eventual come ahead not certain. You are saying wages fell 25 straight months . Yes when inflation spiked 2021, 2022 it was so much higher than wage growth that most workers saw their real wages decline. John lonski. I think still worth noting if i look at that average wage, that 4. 3 ier to year growth we saw for the month of february, still above latest rate of inflation, for january at least, the case for february, real wage growth is returning. But it will real wage growth, wage growth in general slow by enough to bring about a deceleration without which fed will not be cutting rates if you want to get fed rate cuts, you have to pay the price of a slower economy. There is no such thing as a free rate cut that is how i look at it i dont as with steve i dont see enough evidence out there where fed can afford to cut rates without risking a resurgence of price well, thats right. And, by the way, if the best solution to bringing inflation back down to 2 , you know what it is, maria . It is not to raise Interest Rates, its to cut Government Spending. I mean, the cancer in this economy right now is the runaway Government Spending which is not slowing down under, you know, here we are running 2 trillion deficits, and theyre adding to the budget again this year, maria. Maria yeah. Last night in his Campaign Speech, he made a call to republicans to get onboard with all the spending plans, again with, not acknowledging how we got to 40yearhigh inflation. It has been his and the democrats spending. Louie with, what about Election Years for the stock market . What do you see in past Election Years, what are you expecting in 2024 for stocks . Well, if history are repeats, well rally right up to the november if election. Thats the pattern. Especially e when you have a democratic president. Theyre going to promise us the sun, the moon, the stars, the sky and everything and anything, and that will lift both investor and consumer confidence. Is so we will rally right up to november, and then well elect somebody, we hope [laughter] and well figure it out after that. But Election Years are great for the stock mark. Maria well, so in other words, theyll just keep revising. Theyll promise the sun, the moon and the stars, and then theyll revise it after the election, i guess, cheryl. [laughter] oh, my gosh, maria. You know what . Forget the super bowl pool. Im starting for next month the revision pool. Maria yeah, good. And everybody jump in. [laughter] i will keep track of all the predictions of how much the revisions are going to be, was this is ridiculous. And im so glad steve brought that up. I mean, the revisions for december and january were astronomical. Maria yeah. Something is going on. Im no expert on the Labor Department, but i would like to have a conversation with somebody every to there about over there about these numbers. Maria steve, the other issue is when you look at the spend the strength of the consumer, sure is, everything looks good on paper, but but underneath the surface, youre seeing people use, you know, buy nowpay later strategies, dipping into credit cards, theyre not paying back on time. We had in that from the fdic yesterday, credit card balances are going on and on. So there are the some serious issues here around the consumer as well. And that thes because thats because their real wages arent, having been keeping pace with the real cost of buying things. Now, the numbers have gotten better in the last few months, but people are still underwater compared to where they were three years ago. I found out almost come kohl that joe biden is talking about comical that joe biden is talking about shrinkflation. You know what, maria . Thats just another sign of inflation. I mean, if you buy a bag of chips and there used to be 25 in there and now theres 18 in there, its just another way for these companies to confront the inflation that theyre facing. So that makes means the real inflations higher an the reported inflation its like if you go into a restaurant and they used to give you four chicken wings and now they only give you three, that just means youre paying more and youre getting less. Maria yeah x. This has become a really good with opportunity for joe biden to blame Corporate America, john lonski [laughter] exactly. Maria and blame it all on companies, that theyre taking advantage of consumers because they are forced to raise prices or offer less in the bag because of the output the the input costs that theyre facing. Exactly. Right, maria. Its never the fault of the federal government, its never the fault of bidenomics. [laughter] let me tell you one thing, you know, never before in the history of the United States have we had the budget deficit at 6 of gdp while at the same time we have an Unemployment Rate thats still less than 4 . This is a peacetime economiment were not fighting world war ii. Right. Right. This is insanity, to have the deficit so high relative to gdp while debt Government Debt is reaching never before seen levels both absolutely and relative to the overall economy. Maria all right. Great conversation, everybody. Lets check markets here where we do see a fractional move whereupon wards right now after a volatile performance after these numbers were released. Dow industrials up 6 points, nasdaq up 41, s p higher by 12. 5. Steve moore, louie, julia pollack, john lonski, Cheryl Casone. Dont forget, daylight savings time starts this weekend. Turn your clocks ahead one hour, spring forward, and ill see you tonight on maria bartiromos wall street. Varney company picks it up. Stu, take it away. Stuart good morning, everyone. Two big stories, the state of th
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