Charles payne, this is making money. Breaking right now, everyones bullish, everyone loves jay powell all of sudden so what can go wrong . Weve got both sides of the story. Meanwhile tesla struggling to stay magnificent. Guess what . We got a special guest who visited their factory. She says this company is the future. Buy the dips. She will tell you why. Dont miss my takeaway on the Biden Administration war on corporate profits. I have the real story on inflation. The shocking economic consequences of crime in america. It was on the feds beige book yesterday. Were going to dive into that as well. All that and so much more on making money. Charles all right, so i realize we started talking about the rally baton that this latest wave the narrative centers on Artificial Intelligence and all the benefits a. I. Will bring forward, right . But make no mistake, folks, the rally baton is expected to make its way back to the Federal Reserve at some point and the assumption of greater accommodation, also known as easy money. Its not a coincidence over the last two days the market has roared on that notion as jay powell spoke both to the house and the senate, because he is really being cocky about pulling off a soft landing which everyone thought would be immaculate not too long ago. Essentially jay powell is laying it out, what i think he is laying out akin to playing horseshoes. For those unfamiliar to the game, believe me, i spoke too one ones in the meeting this morning only one knew about horseshoes. A ringer, when the shoe wraps around the spike, is worth three points. Leaner is worth two points and shoe within the spike, that is worth one point. Powell thinks right now he willow a ringer. It is not an easy sport or easy metaphor. Consider alan francis. He won 16 world championships. The New York Times called him the most mom cant athlete in any sport. That is how hard it is to pull this off. Last summer, the public, think about this, everyone loves jay powell now but last summer no one loved jay powell. No, this guy is the worst. So the notion he can pull this off, looks like everyone is starting to become a believer and it is not just main street, folks. Take a look at this. These are professional newsletter writers. This is the bullishness. This is rocketing high. At a level typically associated with the market coming down. These are the experts. They get paid a lot of money on their newsletters. Theyre extremely bullish. Retail sentiment investors, 51 bullish, that is extraordinarily high. I will say this, i know the wall street loves to the diss the Retail Investors they have been spot on last couple years more so than the pros. Everyone on the same page. That kind of makes us a little bit nervous. I want to say one thing about the Retail Investor and i want you to Pay Attention to this. We always wonder where is the buying going to come from . Three years ago, 3 trilliondollars in margin this is how much money they borrow to buy more stock. The more they borrow at some point you have to unwound that. After they unwound that, the market fell apart. Look where we are now. They are 300 billion below where they were. This is better ratio. Market debt to equity, there is room, a lot of room, if Retail Investors were to become crazy or irrationally exuberant and tap into that to take this market a whole lot higher. Here is the pot line, folks. Everyone loves jay, but will they still love him at the end of the year . Lets bring in Slatestone Wealth chief market strategist, kenny polcari. Kenny, my man, youve been skeptical what you call j. J. J. J. Charles everyone is buying into this. Once again the narrative goes to, he hinted, he didnt define it, he didnt put a time on it, he hinted the move would be to cut rates although he left the door wide epopen. Theyre jumping on the narrative we get one, not two, three rate cuts this year. That is illogical to me. He is not doing a bad job you about that is illogical. Charles youre still at no cuts . I think they shouldnt cut. If theyre data dependent, nothing in the data says were going off the edge we need to cut, we need to stimulate this economy. There is nothing that says that. Charles so then in this sort of environment, right, because the last time we spoke, because you were becoming a little bit antsy, looks like you were sitting on more cash than normal. I was. We put some of that to work. We still have a little bit higherrer cash than normal but i think the market is still going to pull back. I thought it was going to happen starting the other day. So many people are expecting to happen, the minute the market drops one or 2 they jump in. Charles buying the dip is working. To me the dip is five or 6 . Charles not half a percent. Not half a percent. Charles here is something, there was a lot of complaining the rally was narrow. Communication services down today. Right. Charles tech is up but a lot of other sectors are doing better so does this make you feel better there is broader participation . It does. The two sectors you notice are down today, they have been outperformers last year and again this year. I love to see the rest of this is broadening out. That money is actually moving out of some of these higher performing sectors into the broader economy, industrials, health care. Yesterday we saw utilities, the most boring sector in the group. Charles you read my mind. Utilities down here. I think this will be the number one performing sector of the week. I hear you. Charles if that happens, over the last five days it is. Right. Charles if that happens, does that mean also, even though the market is going up there is a element of anxiety about it there . There is an element of being cautious, right . Charles right. Because that is what utilities will do. Charles lets talk about what youre looking at. Two stocks you like. Two stocks in our portfolio. Apd, in our enhanced dividend portfolio and growth at reasonable price and caterpillar is in growth at reasonable price. This one is industrial play, clear industrial play. Look at the chart. It is beautiful. It is stairstep fashion, if you look at the chart. Adp, that got crushed in early february. Came out with earnings. There was a big gap down 40 points. It churned down where it fell to. Now made its way back up almost closing the gap but that is a great charles apd or adp. Air products. Charles this is the wrong symbol. Apd. Charles air products. I knew the one i wanted. Charles folks that is us. Dont look at that. Dont look at that. I want with caterpillar im at point say never sell. Imagine this the Global Economy is slow. Yeah. Charles China Business is slow and still at 52week high, maybe alltime high, right . I think it is all time. Look at that chart, absolutely beautiful to look at that chart. Charles downside risk. You held a little bit of cash. Putting something to work conservatively, solid names will be around forever. Is there a number on the downside we have to test before maybe you say now time to reignite, you know, to give get really more aggressive . More aggressive. Trendlines are the first thing that come out. You have to look at the 50. I think you have to the look at the intermediate trend line. That takes us down just about 10 . Right there is the line, anything up 10 is considered normal. Charles right. Once you go to 10 , get in correction phase. 20 you get in a bear phase. I dont think were going there. If we pull back seven or 8 that would be a huge buying opportunity. Charles it is interesting, i asked my office, we have to bring our stops wider. Well get volatile, to your point you could be down 7 in one day, up 20 for the week on some high beta names. Weve seen that. Charles my man, youre looking pretty good. Not as sharp as you. Charles when i take my next day off, kenny is filling in. Look at that. I had to get a red hanky to look good as you. Charles you look great. Nasdaq 100 continues to being probably one of the biggest beneficiaries from the a. I. Craze but i want you to look at something. You would not expect this. So if i told you that the nasdaq 100 which is crushing it, it is up here but the growth has crumbled, look at that growth. It is nonexistent, folks. It is really, really something we may should be looking at. That is euphoric moment. That stuff matters. Lets bring in Wealth Academy rob luna. Rob, at what point should we say take the money and run . I think were aways away from that, charles. You talk about all the things, bullish sentiment, but you point out lot of other things. Margin is nowhere it needs to be a lot of home equity people can tap into. There is no froth in the market. Volatility, loosen up the stops youre talking about. I think this market heads a lot higher. We have an election coming. Talking about lower taxes, less regulation, at the same time fed might be cutting. You have to be in this market right now. Charles that is so interesting about it, right . We talk about the market alltime highs. Talk about housing prices hanging in there. Most home prices are extremely high. Most people are positive on that. Then of course there is the notion the fed will cut in this environment. Were hearing people say earnings are, wages are doing well. So how can we have solid wages, record high stock market, record high home prices and the fed cutting . Somethings not right there . I mean its tough. I think to kennys point what the market was pricing in terms of cuts this year i dont think well see that. You might see one or two cuts. Look, if the market continues to be where it has been, if you take a look at this potential which i think is probable of a soft landing i dont think the market really needs that many cuts. We have a lot of innovation going on. If youre in the right sector, earnings can continue to grow, i dont think the market is as expensive as lot of people think. Charles do you agree though, that the higher we go, the more volatile we can become . If that is the case how are you handling that . If that is the case, that is always the case, charles. You have to understand where youre at as an investor. If youre trading you make a great point. You want to widen up those stops. I do like we talked about before. Were in a time like 1990, 2000, take a a longer term time horiz. Take nameses that are winners, Artificial Intelligence. When you can have threebaggers, fivebaggers in this environment, that only happens every 20 to 30 years. Charles now you tell me. I sold a couple of those last month. Look at a couple of your names. Taiwan semi fell off everyones radar. All of sudden they had one amazing earnings report. Not only ignited its stock but helped ignite the whole semiconductor run. If it wasnt called taiwan semi i think the stock would be up 50 more, charles. If it had a sexy name like nvidia. Nvidia, one of its largest customers, apple, amd. Theyre in the right place, the right time, if youre not in nvidia, looking for a cheaper play to get in that taiwan semi is cheaper way to play that. Charles crowdstrike got 3,000 upgrades. We dont need to go over that one. Im curious about ups. One thing bothers me. I feel like inconsistent execution . I like the valuation on this, charles. Ive been trading for this stock a long time. I think this is one of the stocks when you get it beat up like this, last year we saw volumes down, strike they were dealing with, the 4 1 2 yield, valuations where theyre at, stock is closer to 200 to 153. If you want to reduce volume at this time. This is a name to add to your list. Charles love it, Value Investing in the midst of all of that. Appreciate it, robert. Thanks, charles. Charles now my next guest has a message for the critics of tesla. You lost a lot of money shorting this stock a few years ago and you sold it short. Dont do it again. She just came from the megafactory and she has got a megastory to tell. Plans sy tengler. Right after this. vo what does it mean to be rich . Maybe rich is less about reaching a magic number. And more about discovering magic. Rich is being able to keep your loved ones close. And also send them away. Rich is living life your way. And having someone who can help you get there. The key to being rich is knowing what counts. 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Want to bring in laffer cio, ceo, chief investment officer, nancy tengler. Im a little bit jealous. How did you get invited there . The security guards wont even let me on the property . I tell you the, charles, the thing so cool is the culture there. People love working there and the attitude is really, i dont know, it is engaging and infectious. Charles you know what . It is so interesting you brought that up. I remember when nike first began you know. Tip Phillip Knight selling sneakers back of his car. Everyone that worked for him loved sports. Everyone on the same page. It means almost instant success. What about the notion everyone is counting tesla out all of a sudden . It always been historically been a great time to start accumulating shares. We initiated our position last january, we got lucky, bottom ticked it at 104. It took off. We added some in january in the low 180s. It is still not a large holding for us but it is a meaningful holding. The reason im so bullish the megafactory are the utility grade Battery Storage units. It is the Fastest Growing business in tesla and it is the most profitable. When you think about that, people are not valuing the Company Based on that. The total Addressable Market is 600 billion in the next couple of years and they are have about 15 market share but theyre the lowest cost provider by 30 . So the opportunity to me seems really big. Charles let me ask you about the broad market. Youve been in this market. You have never waivered even when the popular thing was to sort of say okay it is not going to work out. A lot of wall street firms every day find themselves catching up. There is no real conviction amongst a lot the experts. You on the other hand have been bullish throughout. Are you still bullish . I am. I think were due for a correction. That is always healthy for stocks. If you go book to my analogy of the 1990s, i think you take the 199495 playbook from the fed, fed chairman greenspan and you apply that here. So we may get a cut or two and stay higher for longer but stocks still can outperform. You saw the productivity numbers today, they were good. The unit labor costs were down. I think greenspan understood the power of productivity to really drive growth and not inflation. So i think that is where we are again. You know it will be choppy. There is no nearterm catalyst other than fed speak and data points, Economic Data points but i do think you want to be long this market for the next number of years. Charles of course, greenspan always talked about the productivity miracle. Many people hoping we get it, particularly with a. I. , another point you brought up but i want to switch gears a little bit. First and foremost, offer you congratulations on your new etf. Laffer tengler, tglr, folks, that is the symbol. Seeking longterm capital appreciation. Tell us about it. Yeah, so its our workhorse strategy. I have the majority of my assets invested in this. We dont own tesla obviously in this portfolio but we own our investment theme which is the old Economy Companies pivoting to digitization, generative a. I. And Cloud Computing. In addition to picks an shovel he was. Broadcom is holding. Weve done quite well with it. It is no nvidia, but i will take it. We own microsoft, we own lam research, we own oracle a Cloud Computing juggernaut. These companies not only pay a dividend but grow a dividend there are no electric utilities in this portfolio. Charles nancy, i have 30 seconds. Do you have a new edition of your book out now . I do. Called the womans guide to second investing, second edition. Much better than the first. Thank you for bringing it up almost on International Womens day. It is designed to showcase why women make Great Investors around also, case studies from things i have learned over the years. Not just from wealthy people and not so wealthy people but also in stocks. I think it really, if you read through it, male or female, it gives you the corerage to do it yourself because you can do it yourself as you have proven with your books. Charles i believe in that wholeheartedly, i believe, women, i hope it is not sexist to say have advantage because of their role in society and other things f youre afraid, grab nancys book. If youre not afraid, grab nancys book. Thanks a lot, see you soon. Folks time for some money mail. Yesterday our guest don luskin said capitalism is not greed. It is freedom to innovate. Hilary agrees, tweeting, excellent, excellent description of freemarket capitalism by don today on the show, nailed it. While mat noticed the shirt was buttoned up more than usual i think he is in fear mode. I agree. Walker saying love when charles is on. Great advice half of the time i take fashion notes on his suits. Did you see kennys suits today . My man is coming at me. We love sharing commentaries with you. I tweet during the commercial. Lets interact. Ben bernanke famously said economists are extremely bad at predicting turning points. What does that mean for the folks in charge . This is supposed to be predicting one or two things, soft landing or hard landing, no big deal. Here is a great deal, two of the very best economists on the street in studio next. Jorge has always put the ones he loves first. But when it comes to caring for his teeth hes let his own maintenance take a back seat. Well maybe its time to shift gears on that. Because aspen dental has the latest technology and equipment. With a staff that goes out of their way to provide exceptional care. Plus free exams and xrays for new patients without insurance and 20 off treatment plans. Making it easier to get started with quality care. Its one more way aspen dental is in your corner. Limu emu doug bell ringing customize and save with libberty bibberty. Liberty bushumal. 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I have to say he handled it well gave both sides a victory but kelly ogrady says he. Reporter he is judges on various different tricks by various constituents. For instance, lets take the stock market, that point of view, there is a reason wall street wants to be more like paul volcker here, nice, 9. 3 , versus arthur burns down at negative 5. 6 . Jerome powell is right about 4. 4 . The a least the right side of the screen to be on. There is how the fed is judged by its economist peers. There might be more sympathy, even though ben bernanke said economists are bad at predicting the future. Ironically, ben bernanke and his colleagues, offered this assessment on the economy. Our forecast is for positive, moderate growth going through the next four quarters. Economists are extremely bad predicting turning points and we dont pretend to be even better. He says this right here. Then comes the great recession, right . Employment skyrockets from 4 all the way up to 10 . That puts into perspective all of this talk of a soft landing. Perhaps the track record leaving something to be desired there. Now one of the hurdles for the fed, this rate tightening cycle has been the jobs market. It has continued to be really tight. Yesterdays jobs opening report was flat, largely in line with consensus. Job openings, kind of flat here, fell marginally, roughly 26,000. Hiring edged lower. Notable declines in warehousing, utilities. Quits though, that plunged, decreasing by 54,000. That is the lowest in 3 1 2 years, the quits rate. May be rather fair to say the grate resignation is over. That will also bode well for Wage Inflation as we go on. Couple other trends heading into tomorrows jobs report i want to highlight. Ism manufacturing employment that contracted to 45. 9. Thats the lowest reading that was seen since july of last year. Factory employment has continued to shrink. Manufacturers are reporting hiring freezes. Remember when biden said he would save democracy one factory jobe at a time . Were going down here. Ism Services Employment decreased from 48 from 50. 5. Any of these metrics under 50 indicates contraction. Adp saw the private sector add 140,000 job, slightly less than expected. Increase from january. Pay gains are trending lower. A little bit of a mixed bag there. Finally continuous job claims at 1. 9 million. That didnt increase much slightly, about 8,000. The time it is taking jobs to find a new job Still Holding steady. We know the fed hates taking victory laps in the past because this last mile of inflation is often sticky and bumpy road. Charles, tomorrow, it will be very pivotal to the powell pivot. Back to you. Thank you very much, kelly, joining me jpmorgan asset management, fixed income kelsey berro, along with rimac neil dutta. Let me begin with you, kelsey, the jolts number, quits grabbed the headlines. Great resignation is over. If you didnt tell, if you did you have to apologize. If you didnt, it is too late. What does that mean for the fed tomorrow . What do you think it potentially means for the jobs tomorrow . Right. So the reason i like to look at the quits rate, it is a good indication how much the Bargaining Power the employee has. You dont voluntarily quit your job unless you know another job is coming and that job probably has higher pay. Youre normally doing it as a negotiation tactic. As the quits rates are falling, tends to mean the Bargaining Power the employee has is starting to decline. There is lot of leading indicators in this cycle not worked well. Charles right. Absolutely fail us. One that worked well this cycle is the quits rate projecting, projecting inflation and projecting wages. And so for tomorrow, average Hourly Earnings you had a really hot print last month. I think that is probably going to reverse. Charles that was offset too by work week. Productivity number was revised. Unit labor costs up. 4, up. 6. There are a lot of signs suggesting that the time for higher wages to kelseys point is over, neil . Well i mean the productivity number was interesting because obviously compensation growth in that number, one of the things in economics you have different ways measuring the same concept. Charles right. The compensation per hour in the productivity number was quite strong in nominal terms. The reason unit labor costs were so low, productivity was so strong. If that continues you had a chart up on the screen looking at the employment cost index versus quits. If Employment Costs are running 3 1 2 and productivity is running about 1 1 2 , thats basically consistent with the feds longer run inflation goal because compensation over time should equal inflation and productivity. Charles we just had a guest on, nancy tengler, she thinks everyone is making comparisons to this a. I. Driven market where we are visavis the 1990s. She thinks were at 1994 where greenspan played a pivotal role. Of course he became the maestro. Just how much, start with you, neil, how much is this Market Influencing the fed . Because listen it is obviously part of the sort of the wealth effect and those sort of things. They have to be watching this . Well i think theyre watching it but i dont think theyre watching it in the way they were watching lets say in 2022 and 2023, right . Inflation is in a much better place. The fed is going to actively try to fight or push back against higher equity prices if inflation is running well above the target. That is not really the case right now. I dont know just because the stock market is going up, growth is coming in better, that they will necessarily be upset about it. The fed doesnt have a growth mandate. They dont have a stock market mandate. They have and inflation mandate. Inflation, january notwithstand something moving in the right direction. Charles consumers are spending a lot of money. Wages started to keep up with inflation recently but over the last couple years, inflation, in 2021 was down, you know, wages, 2022 down 4 . It is still a lot to catch up. Something is inspiring people, kelsey, to spend money to be quite frank they dont have . Right. You can see it in the Consumer Sentiment numbers that are still actually very depressed. There are some hurdles still to highpriced levels, even if the rate of inflation is coming down. Charles right. Ultimately if youre trying to understand what drives consumption the speed limit for consumption is ultimately going to be wage growth. As wage growth moderates, i think consumption is also going to moderate. If you look at it from a very high level view, you had q3 gdp, up 4. 9 . Q4 gdp, up 2. 4 . Q1 tracking 2 . Were seeing that moderation. With bums, with noise along the way but it is happening. Charles i dont have a lot of time. I want to squeeze this in. We have the state of the union tonight. I was looking at a chart recently of relationship of elections and action by the Federal Reserve. So you have five rate cuts. Of those five times, four times democrats won. The only time a democrat didnt win was reagan. You have five rate hikes, each time they hiked rates a republican won. Obviously you expect one or two hikes. I think everyone is on the same page, neil. What do you say, neil, well it is politically driven . Take that out to its logical conclusion. Lets say powell wanted to bail out the Biden Administration and not cut rates, even if the economy warranted that, right . Inflation was falling. So real rates would explode and you would be out of a job, right . I mean so it is sort of charles youre saying it is bunk . Taking the other way, lets say if they wanted to ease a lot to help biden, right . They did, aggressively cut when they probably dont need to, what would happen . The long end would go screaming. Interest rates would go up a lot and financial conditions would tighten. If they dont do what they need to do the markets will more or less do it for them. Charles kelsey, i give you the last word. I think when we look back at history youve seen that the fed has adjusted policy in election years and ultimately it is going to be driven by the Business Cycle. Whats going on with inflation, whats going on with the labor market. Charles there is still a Business Cycle . Im just joking. Still long bonds right . Yeah. It is a Good Environment for credit even if we get a few less rate cuts than people are expecting. Charles two of the best, neil, kelsey, appreciate it. Meanwhile, folks the Biden Administration will blame companies tonight, Corporate America for the inflation crisis but does the data suggest Something Else . I would love to hear your thoughts. Tweet me at cvpayne. I see if we can share some. I will be back with my thoughts after the break. 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The media joined with the white house to push shrinkflation as the author of Household Economic pain rather than the trillions 6 that the white house dumped on the economy after the pandemic emergency was over. There was no economic emergency at the time. It is good. From their perspective you can brag about nominal economic gains and ability to goose things like jobs numbers, from all the cash sent to states, really created a lot of jobs that made the difference. Really anyone who really understands or acknowledges inflation, understands that this free money thing has really been the death knell of what happened. It is an election season. From the New York Times they put this out, saying, you know, listen, that inflation, if the shrinkflation causes inflation so to speak. Of course they dont mention input for producers. Take a look at this. The blue is the normal price. This was up. It is dollar. Now dollar 50, up 50 . When you account how the shrink is really up more, it is not up dollar 50, it is up dollar 70. They did that in variety of categories, household cleaning good, snacks, candy, chewing gum. Coffee. Here is interesting thing that was from 1999 to last year. This the fewtures of coffee. In the same time frame coffee prices end up 22 , accounting for shrinkflation, the amount they had to pay went up 122 . You got to be kidding me. If anything they took a loss, they are taking a loss selling coffee. This is kind of thing you have to be on guard, folks much by the way there are three types of inflation. Covid gave us these two. Costpush inflation, rise due to supply disruption. We all know about the supply chain issues t was a problem. Demand pool inflation. Price increases from excessive demand. When you put trillions of dollars out there too much money chasing too few goods. Now were dealing with this one as well, builtin inflation. Inflation pressures persistent because of Wage Expectations but heres the problem. It is not organic. This is what it looks like. I will show you in real life when you artificial wage hikes. Kroger reported their earnings today. The stores that didnt sell few were down. 8 of. Here is the thing you have to look for. Increase of associate wages resulting in average hourly wages of 19, rate of nearly 25, with benefits factored in, 33 increase, 33 increase in the last five years. They got to move those prices on. They just cant keep paying people this kind of money and not raise the price of things. This is incredible. This is what we talk about. When you advocate for extraordinarily high minimum wages what youre really advocating for higher praises. You cant blame the food company for that. By the way, talk about being a great Corporate Citizen look what kroger is doing. Im sorry, this is the balance sheet. I want to show you some of the things theyre doing. This is what the president should be talking about. Good Corporate Citizen. They gave away 182 millionpounds of food, they gave this away, folks. Charity, 3. 2 billion for hunger relief. Theyre doing things for the climate. Theyre doing things to stop wasting food. This is the kind of company will be villainized tonight, villainized. It is all nuts to me. This is what we build on as a nation. Bottom line, President Biden is no fan of the profit motive, thats okay, but going to war with corporations is nuts. By the way jay powell sort of alluded to that today. I think the pricing mechanism is incredibly important for our economy. I think we need to give companies the freedom to do that as long as theyre not fixing prices or failing to disclose the nature of price changes to the public. All right. Folks, were going to continue with this, because this state of the union is huge. Well talk about these bad policies and now how theyre impacting main street. Ive got two of the very, very best observers, not of economics but of society to help us with that. Well be right back. F. Re the stock market is now down 23 . This is happening people. Where there are so few certainties. laughing look around you. You deserve to know. As we navigate a future unknown. Im glad i found stability amidst it all. Gold. Standing the test of time. J. P. Morgan Wealth Management knows its easy to get lost in investment research. Get help with j. P morgan personal advisors. Hey, david ready to get started . Work with advisors who create a plan with you, and help you find the right investments. So great getting to know you, lets take a look at your new investment plan. Ok, great this should have you moving in the right direction. Thanks jen. Get ongoing advice; and manage your investments in the chase mobile app. Things will go wrong for your customers. But your business can make it right, with watsonx assistant. Ai that can help resolve problems by understanding your customer requests with 90 percent accuracy. Lets create Customer Service in service of customers, with watsonx assistant. Ibm. Lets create. Charles joining mow now, Culture Founder and ceo lily, and you just did this amazing, exhaustive survey, 4. 6 million digital conversations, and this is what potential voters are thinking about . Thats right. So let me just explain it. Were disrupting the way we do research because its not a survey. Its what people say unsolicited, unbiased on the worldwide web. And for the first time ever, charles, crime and immigration is the top issue. Right there. Top issues are in green for different segments, and you get to see that the economy, it is number one for hispanics. But for everyone else, it is the number two issue. So definitely whats happening at the border and in the biggest cities in america are taking a toll. Charles its interesting, its crime and immigration together as a conversation . I thinks whats different this time around as well because we are seeing that immigration is no longer a border issue, but its an everycity issue with what were seeing with the gangs, with the pressures on the economy of the biggest urban epicenters of america. So there it is. So tonights state of the union better address some of that. Charles yeah. Will President Biden talk about the border . I dont know. I dont know. Economy and inflation, he will talk about this, but hes going to blame Corporate America, hes going to blame the corporate profits, hes going to blame shrinkflation, and i dont i just, you probably dont have anything specific on shrinkflation, but with inflation is something everyones worried about. Yeah, absolutely. Gallup has some Interesting Data out there. They say that americans in general see that 25 more expensive is everything that they buy right now, 25 more expensive. Charles right. So there is a pressure there that each if they dont understand the mechanics, we talk here in the economics, for the everyday american that is voting, theyre going to vote with their pocketbook and make that decision based on how much groceries cost. Charles youve got some more data, i think weve got some voting trends here . This is amazing. Candidate sentiment the last 24 hours with the super tuesday thing. Yeah. Once again our a. I. Powered analytic tool scraped the worldwide web, about 250,000 digital discussions in 24 hours. It is a tie, charles, its statistically a tie when 45 of the comments are positive towards President Trump and 44 for President Biden. Charles whats interesting is africanamericans, is that 57 negative for biden . That is no, its the other way around. Amongst awe all conversations amongst africanamericans about President Biden, almost 60 are positive. Charles okay the hispanic one is really wild. It is crazy. You look at that 45, the last time we saw a republican in the 40s was with george w. Bush. Charles do you know what accounts for this. What do you mean . Charles why cothese numbers if you told me these were the numbers before with the show, i would have said, no way. Its because of what is the top issue. For hispanics and it is jobs and the economy. If theres a hiring freeze in manufacturing, which a lot of latinos do have a high share in that category, or things are, expensive, and we have bigger households. The pressure if is harder. Charles right. So the economy definitely is driving a lot of that, and we just saw it. Crime and immigration, its affecting everyone, no longer just texas and border towns. Charles well see what happens. Fantastic would be. Thank you, charles. Charles speaking of crime, yesterday i went home and read the fed if minutes. What i like about the fed minutes is they put these things in called community perspectives. Not every segment has it, but new york does, and it really floored me. Look at a this, lots of concerns about crime and retail theft. This is the Federal Reserve, and they point out specifically on small businesses. And of course, yesterday the governor of new york called out the National Guard to help patrol new york city subways. I want to bring in walser Wealth Management president rebecca walser. Weve falk thed about this societal talked about this sort of societal thing, and its hard to get any Economic Data, weve seen recently stores are now saying in their earnings report, yeah, theyre ripping us off. They didnt want to sea anything say anything, but now theyre saying it. For the Federal Reserve to point it out, it is a problem. Charles, thats a statement. You know, i think the last numbers we had in 2021, it was 100 billion, but the problem has been exacerbated greatly in 2022 and 2023 and obviously now. To get, you know, the subway, National Guard here is saying something. Charles i think San Francisco passed some sort of initiative, you know, against crime. San francisco, and i guess its because these places, people are leaving. Theyre taking their money, theyre taking their skills, theyre taking their wherewithal and leaving in droves. When you dont have the rule of law, people dont know what is going to be criminal and prosecuted or not, and safety is obviously the number one concern for most people first above everything else. If were not safe, we deal with that first. Charles about a week ago a i think google bought a Nuclear Plant somewhere, okay . This a. I. Thing, a lot of energy. So yesterday linkedin was down. The day before that, facebook, instagram, threads. And were seeing more things like that. And it kind of reminds if me of that movie leave the world e behind. Weve talked about some of the things that could happen in this world particularly as were all plugged in these days, and youve been worried about this longer than most people. Well, yeah. Especially now because they are really drumming the drum beat of solar flare that would obviously potentially take down the entire lek electrical grid or rogue actor detonating a bomb in the atmosphere, soup is orer e everybody mt. If its a great movie in the sense that it does show you how reliant we are with on gps and technology, we dont have paper maps anymore, and if we lose our connection to the internet, we really are sitting ducks and helpless. Charles youve talked about owning gold. Its rocketing higher. Its been overshadowed by bitcoin, but its rocketing higher in part because of things like this, in part because of global 60 elections around the world, almost all of them being powered birdies satisfaction with governments. Yeah. Charles, people arent going to listen to what an administration says, theyre going to listen to their pocketbook and how they feel and if they can walk and use their citys mass transportation. If they cant, then somethings wrong. Charles so where are we . Youhelp manage you help manage money. I know its a juggling act, because youre focused first and foremost on safety. You want to keep your clients assets safe. I look back at the period of what i would call irrational exuberance, they usually are followed by some kind of bubble bursting. Unfortunately, we do see that asset values are overpriced with the real estate economy and other Global Factors macroeconomically, there is going to be a tough year ahead, unfortunately. Thats what i believe. [laughter] charles listen, you could write in so many things, unfortunately. It aint all pretty, but youre right. Thank you so much. Thank you, charles. Charles speaking of a market gone wild, were still rocking and rolling and looks like were going to motor into the closing bell. Of course, liz clamans going the hold your hand a liz i thought you were going to say it aint all pretty but liz is. Charles oh, man. Lets do it al