Transcripts For FBC Making 20240704

Im [inaudible]. I learned my lesson. Good afternoon, everyone. This is Charles Payne and this is making money. Breaking right now, okay on on the surface the market is meandering, tomorrow is a the important read on inflation. Make no mistake things are happening more and more wall street is buying in and ditching concerns that caused them to miss the rally in 2023. We have ed yardeni at the top of the show. And any anthony pomly lawn know, where does it go from here and more importantly is apple watching the move. Apple giving up on evs and Silicon Valley giving up companies that would make terrible ipes. A. I. Disrupting best laid plans out of. Breaking news. Senator Mitch Mcconnell giving up his role as leader. All that and so much more on making money. Never met a girl who makes me feel the way you do, youre all right charles listen, get ready bit temptation, one of those songs makes you want to switch into gear. If youre in fourth gear you go to fifth. If youre into fifth it doesnt matter. It is happening on wall street. More and more these firms are learning to love this rally. Yesterday we had barclays go up to 5300 but check this out, going back to december last year, ubs 4600. Theyre 5300. Barclays, 4300, theyre at 5300. Goldman sachs lifted theirs, rbc lifted theirs. Wall street getting excited about it. There is other folks. Those are tone deaf. They dont hear the temptations, theyre sticking their head in the sand and levels in december. With jpmorgan, still at 4200, ouch. Note just wall street. Everyone is getting excited about this market. Look at this turn here, the blue line that is cash, that is equity flows. Billions of dollars. In fact 75 billion pouring into this market just in the last few weeks. You see the correlation between that and eps growth. Maybe, maybe these folks are onto something. Of course heres the problem the same tide hasnt been lifting all the ships, right . With the market being as great as its been, coming into todays session only 70 of the s p 500 was changing hands above their 200day moving average. Look at this chart, it is even more telling. Only 54 are trading above their 200day moving average. Market alltime high, what the heck wouldnt it be higher, 90 are maybe more . Joining me yardeni, inc. President , ed yardeni. I read your note. I always look forward to it every time it comes out. Thank you. Charles i feel like youre getting extremely optimistic. You laid out several factors for being excited including this upturn in the atlanta fed. Today we got Fourth Quarter gdp, revised a little lower. Personal income was five billion less. Disposable, personal lending also less. Here is the thing a lot of folks are asking, they are looking at gdp, gdp went up 334 billion during the quarter. Debt went up 834 billion during the same time frame. Can we conclude what is in this Strong Economy is truly organic growth or is it being manufactured . I think it is some come on nation of the two. It is never one or the other when we look at the economy. There is always more than one story. You always have to you know, do a probability adjusted outlook. I think on a probability adjusted basis the economy is actually fundamentally quite strong. Its not all based on debt. Maybe guest debt is still very much of a problem. As you know Bank Loan Growth is really stopped moving higher because businesses have stopped building inventories. Theyre still what i would call a growth recession in the goods side of the economy but the Service Economy is doing really well. Housing was really doing pretty well until Mortgage Rate went right back up. So singlefamily Housing Starts are likely to be coming down. Still a combination what ive been calling rolling recessions and rolling recoveries. All in all it added up to economy growing, earnings are growing and stock market reflected that. Charles pick up on that now, earnings, mothers milk of rallies. Great chart you posted here. The weekly Forward Operating earnings, we could obviously see, the trend speaks for itself, no doubt about it. It does. Charles at what point though does the price get behind earnings . Sew earnings are making this big move here but so are stock price. Right. Charles where do you start to worry even with the great earnings the price getting ahead of itself for this market . Well i think we can look at the posterchild for this bull market which is nvidia. Nvidia has exponential increase in its stock price. So you would think the valuation multiple must be 100 or 200 or 300. Actually more like 35. The reason for that is because as the price level has gone up it has been because analysts have been raising their earnings expectations so i think a lot of what weve seen in the market has been justified by riding earnings expectations. There is a chance here, there is a risk here of a meltup it kind of feeds on itself. Stock price goes up. Analysts decide theyre too far behind the curve to raise their numbers. Like what some of strategists have been doing for the number for this year. Charles so amazing. How wall street has gotten behind itself. Before i let you go, the pce number, tomorrow, but it feels like, unlike maybe a four weeks ago, has the fed suddenly become irrelevant when it comes to this rally . Well i think the fed is always relevant because they always talk, i call them the federal open mouth committee. So were likely to have more speeches coming from the fed. I think they will respond to the pce, we told you so. We dont want to rush lowering Interest Rates and i think there is no rush to lower Interest Rates. Everybody is expecting 0. 4 on the pced. I dont think it will be worse than that. Might be a little better than that the markets are ready for a number, widely viewed as not being great. Charles ed, thank you very much. Always appreciate you and your work. Fantastic. Thank you. Charles my next guest says Economic Growth will slow but there will still be growth and no recession. Bring in ubs senior equity strategist, nadia lavelle. Ive been a fan a long time. Thank you. Welcome to the show. Thank you for having me. Great to have you. Im somewhat of a contrarian. I think the street is maybe getting a little bit too sanguine with respect to a soft landing. I have want to share with the audience. This is folks at bloomberg terminals are looking up soft landing. There is crazy. Im looking at this spike. I have never seen anything like it before. I think youre in the soft landing camp. In your mind what could derail the current outlook . I think it could derail it if Consumer Spend slows down. That is what is driving this economy. We saw increase in con chum and also a fad. There are expectations fed cuts this year. If the fed does not cut this year, rates remain higher for longer, that could have implications, put some pressures on some areas of the market, even further slow Consumer Spending. Those are things were watching but not in the cards. Were squarely in the soft landing camp. We think this economy will actually grow above trend this year. Were looking slightly over 2 gdp growth for this year. Charles it feels like were living in sort of a new paradigm. The fed aggressively hikes rates. Nothing really breaks, stocks, in fact it is interesting, i have a board up here with the stocks and returns, visavis unemployment. Historically the higher the unemployment, the higher the stock market, right . So unemployment, lets say six to 8 , were 15 . Five to 6 . We have unemployment under 4 , under 5 and the market is outperforming. All these things seem to be happening. Are the rules of investing being rewritten . I think, i wouldnt necessarily say theyre being rewritten. I think that youre getting confirmation in that because on data that things remain on solid footing. Also you have innovation thats happening, whether it be in a. I. , parts of health care surrounding diabetes or obesity. These have long term implication,. You have Earnings Growth starting to recover. At the end of day were looking for doubledigit Earnings Growth for this year. The momentum is within the market. The fundamentals are improving. I think that there are ingredients for this market to continue to grind higher. Charles i put up, on the screen, megatrends. We referred to technology, a. I. , drive up further, health care, particularly diabetes, miracle weight loss drugs. Industrials to pick up on Infrastructure Spending in the pipeline. Are these, are these areas, these niches, are they big enough though to have to kind of coattails to, you know, talking doubledigit Earnings Growth across the board. Youre talking a stronger, stronger than average growth, stronger than trend growth. These three trends are big enough to do that . Absolutely. I mean look at what the market did last year just on a. I. Alone. Were still in the very early innings of a. I. When we look at tech for this year, were looking for close to 20 eps growth. That is nearly double what the market is expected to produce. Then when you look at the longer tale of diabetes and obese tri, this could be a obesity, this could be 100 billiondollar market at the end of the decade. A. I. , this could be over 400 billiondollar market in just the next five years. We do think these megatrends are here to stay. They have staying power in terms of transforming this economy and we continue to advise our client maintain exposure and add to on pullback to build portfolios around these megatrends. Charles that is why i wanted you on the show. Great work, conviction, not blinking. Nadia, thank you very much, appreciate it. All right, folks, my next guest says that you should be expecting a stock market pullback but heres the thing, that would be a perfect opportunity to buy the dip. So buying the dip is a mantra i think well hear often today. Elizabeth evans will join us next to explain how you pull that off. Shes next. vo what does it mean to be rich . Maybe rich is less about reaching a magic number. And more about discovering magic. Rich is being able to keep your loved ones close. And also send them away. Rich is living life your way. And having someone who can help you get there. The key to being rich is knowing what counts. 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I want to bring in evans may wealth managing partner elizabeth evans. Elizabeth, we hear that a lot. The audience is watching, whats a pullback, 1 , is today enough . 2 , 5 . Do you have specific markers or areas where you say we pull back to this level, thats when you want to start to make your move . Good afternoon, charles. You know 5 pullback we see 95 of the time intrayear. A 10 pullback we see every 1. 8 . So i think there are a lot of indications that from a shortterm standpoint were due for a pullback. Hedge funds, leverage ratios are higher than they have been in recent history. Mutual fund cash positions have been absolutely slashed. I was shocked to see that cash represents 1. 7 of mutual fund positions. Thats, we havent seen levels like that since decent of 2021. Vix is indicating there is complacency in the market and the s p, whether youre looking at the market cap or the equal weight are really trading at rich valuations w that said, the medium to longterm setup is still good. I think if you have a handful of names you want to own, whether it is 5 , 10 , you use that volatility to your advantage. I do think over the medium to long term there are still more upside. Charles you speak of complacency. The vix is one area that used to reflect that. It is still under 14. Would that have to make the kind of move, would you need to see a move to 18, 19 . Back in the day 20 was sort of the mark that we looked at. The vix is just one indication. Charles right. I think that theres a, theres a lot of Different Things to look at but from an Investor Sentiment standpoint everyone is very bullish. I thought your price targets were so indicative of that. So i think that the economy is still strong. The labor market is, still very tight. Inflation is coming down despite some of the recent reports. So things move in the right direction. That is all very good for the economy and for the market. But from a shortterm standpoint were dual for a pullback. It is healthy for the market to digest some of those gains to move higher. Charles i have two minutes. I want to hit two things. Your note was really fascinating. Youre one of the two people talking about equal weight being overvalued to a degree. Trading 16 times. Normally 14. Right. Charles market cap, the s p we all quote. 20 times, normally 16. Does that mean we dont have to figure this out . Stick with the large cap names on this pullback . Well i think that, i think you have to be careful just picking a, you know, just megacap tech. I think that what weve seen this earnings season is, there was, there was a big part of the market was hoping for this broadening out. Weve seen a little bit of consolidation. Weve seen a little bit of broadening the last week 1 2 or so but i think megacap tech will continue to lead us in this rally. So i think you need that as a core component of your portfolio but were starting to sigh earnings matter again and not just equity markets trading based on where treasurys are. I think you need to be selective. Megacap tech is a portion of that. There is also some Great Companies that are not just tech companies. Charles with that in mind, you talked about earnings, two names you like, you like taiwan semi. In many respects, taiwan semi, that Earnings Report they had recently helped spark this whole semiconductor run and sales force. It is amazing because early last year there was talk of that company being in trouble, rick even making a change in the csuite. They turned it all around. They have been crushing it. The common denominator here they dominate their industry and theyre producing the earnings, right . Thats right. Taiwan semi, i love that company. Theyre making 60 of chips globally, 90 of the worlds most advanced chips. They just opened their First Factory this past weekend in japan. Theyre investing in their second. They will still continue to have higher Gross Profit Margins as compared to their competitors because they are the largest foundry. So they have economies of scale. Crm on the other hand as you mentioned benioff really righted the ship there, they cut cost, they expanded margins. They report after the close today. Were watching that very closely from a technical standpoint theyre trading right at their 52 high. If you see a beat on both the top and bottom line, importantly wall street will want to see what are expectations going forward. How much is a. I. And even stein going to contribute to the bottom line but to the extent there is a good report i think that could allow the stock to break through this resistance level and move on to set new highs. Charles benioff on wall street, they always love him. 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I. impressed ay i like it who wants to come see the future . get your Business Online in minutes with godaddy airo charles man, we got a lot of feedback on yesterdays segment about the disconnect between economists and main street. Kelly ogrady is back with even more details. Kelly. Reporter charles, yes, were back at it again. Yesterday we touched on this new Research Paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research and it is timed, the cost of money is part of the cost of living, new evidence on the Consumer Sentiment anomaly. It is causing quite the uproar, okay . I do want to highlight one of the authors of the report, you might recognize this name, it is larry summers. He has been really critical of recent monetary and fiscal policy including the 1. 9 trillion American Rescue act and i have to highlight one line from the reports abstract, charles, because it says it all. The cost of money is not currently included in traditional price index indicating there is a disconnect between the measured favored by economists and the effective born by consumers. What does that mean . The metrics economists are using dont account for how Interest Rates impact your budget. Let me show you real quick. Economists looking at pci. We have the pce out tomorrow. Saying all is well, we made strides on how fast prices are increasing. Regular folks, are getting money bills, theyre seeing their mortgage and car Loan Interest payments go through the roof. Look at the massive difference here in terms of how Interest Rates are increasing. This is headline cpi here. You see the big difference. Look at this, i also want to show you this chart, this is Interest Payments as a share of Consumer Spending. They have gone from a, level that we havent seen since the 1960s, look at this. Look how fast that is increasing. It is basically the blink of an eye. Of course you know, dont look now, Small Businesses theyre ready to raise their prices. This is the percent, this line here, this blue line is the percent that are planning to do so. Okay, Small Businesses theyre dealing with those increased rates i talked about, they may have to increase prices to alleviate that crunch. I will note, a Movement Like this, that usually leads inflation data. Finally the American Public is worried and it tends to have a sixth sense about these things long before they hit wall street spreadsheets. That explains that big miss in Consumer Sentiment yesterday. Fell for the first time in four months, right . You can see that hit there . Look, this is the pandemic. Were not moving in the right direction. So, charles, your pci, pce are important but may not tell the whole picture how consumers feel about the current budgets. Charles when they sit at the table, write out those checks, hard to get that in the data i think. Kelly, great stuff, thank you very much. Joining me now, monetary macro. Com cio, joseph wang. I always ask economists or wall street types if they have any relatives in the lower class or lower middle class, it seems to be a disconnect. Wall street guys, it is good, economy is strong. All my relatives, it is tough, im struggling, charles. Do you ever see that disconnect at all . Well, absolutely, charles. First of all, thank you for having me. I this is especially salient. I can talk from my experience at the fed. The fed as you know has to make decisions, they go gathers information. My sense the fed talks to people, talk to cios, treasurers, big investors, theyre talking to wealthy people, so they take their perspective more when they make decisions. That is similar to many economists speak as well. This is there huge selection where people who make decisions in Public Institutions and on wall street tend to not know very many middle class people. So you get a very skewed perspective how things are going. That impacts policy as well. Charles there should be mandatory trips to the local supermarket twice a month i think. Just mandatory. You have a great tweet, it is very compelling and i want to share the with the audience. Fiscal spending distributes income from those who spend less to those who spend more. Particularly strong when finance by debt and taxes. This suggests, continued strong growth and nominal gdp in supportive of credit. I dont know. Am i reading this right. It sounds like youre saying a former modern monetary theory is working and we should stick with it . Charles, as you know, a couple years lag we experimented with massive mmt, spending billions of money to millions of people. What people are not aware of we didnt really stop. We dont send overt checks. If you look at the fiscal deficit, it is 5 a year. And according to the cbo it will stay about 5 a year for the foreseeable future. Now the cbo is a Great Organization but they can only make projections based on current law. If the past is any guidance were going to be spending more and more money. So that 5 fiscal deficit is going to be an underestimation. So in a sense we are, federal government is going to spend tremendous amounts of money and pay for it by printing treasury securities n a sense it is very much like printing money and this completely changes the game when it comes to Economic Growth and when it comes to asset prices this strong nominal growth weve seen, how the economy seems to be so resilient even after the fed hikes rates i think a lot of it is due to this tremendous fiscal spending charles would you advocate to make that a permanent feature or would you be concerned that inflation would never really go away and you know, the better, what do we want . Do we want nominal growth at any cost because it seems that the longer we do this the bigger, the larger the reckoning is going to be. Absolutely, charles. So if you look across the world, lets say can argentina do Something Like this, can brazil do Something Like this . Absolutely not, if they were to have the tremendous deficits their bond market would freak out and their currency would be selling off significantly. It is kind of already happening in some cases. What americans the u. S. Different we built up so much credibility over the past 100 years as the worlds superpower even though we are not being fiscally wellmanaged there seems to be a lot of people who still you know, just piling into the bond market, piling into the dollar. Charles sure. Now these perceptions take a while to change but obviously it is not sustainable and that chair powell already noted a lot of people are ringing alarm bells on our fiscal situation. It is not sustainable. Charles like it takes a long time to build it up. Once you lose it would take a long time to regain it i think. Joe, thank you very much. Folks check out the fed guy on twitter. My next guest has crunched numbers. He looked at the cpi, pp it, suggests core pce would be. 4 of a percent. That would be the highest in four months but dont worry. Lets bring in fhn financial chief economist chris low. This number will be sort of a near term peak then . I think so. The biggest number in, last year and biggest number the year before was january. January is really hard to seasonally adjust. This year was harder still because the weather was awful. That means people couldnt get out to buy as many goods. They spent more on services. Services inflation is higher. It skews the number upward. I will worry if february and march look bad but im not going to worry about january. Charles talk about the Service Inflation or Service Prices being higher. Kelly just on the board showed a paper from the nber, very compelling. When someone every month, you get all your bills, you sit at the kitchen table, writing out checks, all of sudden couple of these checks are substantially higher than they were month or two earlier, the economists dont see or feel that pain. We ironically sort of like political polls, right . How do you feel about the economy . Its terrible. When they say that i see an army of economists come on and almost insult these people. Theyre too dumb to know that theyre sitting on this much money, theyre sitting on that much money. People, there is a big disconnect there . I think youre touching on two things that a really important. One is the point joe just brought up. That is fiscal spending was really strong last year. That money went primarily to wealthy people. It did not go to the poor. So if youre struggling to make ends meet youre using debt. If on the other hand youre well off, chances are youre getting a tax break for the new tesla you just bought or you are getting a tax break for that chip plant that youre building. That kind of thing means that the economy stays strong because wealthy are spending, which means prices dont come down. Charles right. And yeah, the fed, by the way, raising Interest Rates in order to make stuff more expensive because theyre trying to get people to stop spending. The working class, getting absolutely squeezed in the middle of this. Charles we had a table yesterday of the interest money that buff buffer, berkshire is making. Rivals his dividend money now. It is really absolutely amazing. He sits back, other folks like that, the idea is somehow derail, slow down the economy. I wonder if there is a better system. Overall youre feel being pretty good about the economy and overall market now . The economy is in gray great shape. There is no reason fundamentally is it will go down if the economy keeps growing. You see insiders are dumping stoke, insiders at nvidia, bezos selling stock, buffett sifting on pile of cash. Charles he has more money. Stop the market right now. We want to stop this thing right now. Cash hoards. Charles great stuff, chris. Been too long. Talk to you real soon. Thanks, charles. Charles all right, buddy. Big major breakerring news, Mitch Mcconnell is stepping down from his leadership role in the senate come november. Weve got the perfect guest to discuss this, senator tim scott is next. Were you worried the wedding would be too much . Nahhhh. inner monologue another Destination Wedding . . We just got back from her sisters in napa. Who gets married in napa . My daughter. Who gets married someplace more expensive . My other daughter. Cancun jamaica why cant they use my backyard with empower, we get all of our financial questions answered. So we dont have to worry. 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Your rewards. Charles folks, a Major Development out of washington, d. C. Senator Mitch Mcconnell will be stepping down as the senates republican leader come november which ends the longest run, one of the most powerful positions in washington, d. C. I want to bring in now South Carolina senator, tim scott. Senator scott, your colleague, senator mcconnell this will be my last term as republican leader in the senate. Im not going any where. Time for new leadership, new generation of leadership, i wonder if this confirm as time for a new way for the gop in general . No doubt, charles, we should thank senator mcconnell for his service. Number one. Number two he said something in his speech was very important, underappreciated talent knows when it is to leave. He says it is time for a shift in the Republican Party and leadership. That is good news in my perspective. Time for us to win back majority in the senate, win back the white house, win hold onto the house to do things we did from 2017 to 2020. Think about the things we accomplished when we had the majorities. We saw the greatest tax cut in the history of america. More than 24. 3 trillion. Those tax cuts expire next year. Charles right. So having a leader who is committed for the long haul is really important. Think about my opportunity zones. Think about the fact we brought unemployment rates for africanamericans, hispanics, asians, to lowest level ever. Think about funding for hbcus. We have to be focused on winning the majority. I thank senator mcconnell recognizing for us it is time to move on. Thats good news for the country because he has served well but it is good news for our future because he says it is time for new leadership as well. Charles you know what else i think it is time for, i think its happening, time for Political Parties to listen to the people, to the voters right . Amen. Charles we heard that in michigan yesterday. Look at the results from that primary. Absolutely phenomenal. There was a direct message about the party wanting to reembrace republican side, president trump, there was rebuke by a lot of democrats of joe biden there were seeing the grassroots have their voices heard, rather than the party dictating to them. I think that is a change we needed to see big time. I want to talk about something youre doing. Because you played such an amazing role. Tried to save lives so many ways. Hosting a roundtable. Entitled empowering main street. A roundtable discussion for expanding opportunities for mine another communities and financial services. Senator scott, tell us about it. The one thing we will conclude as we conclude black history month, the powerful impact of having a black future conversation. That conversation should focus on access to credit for small minority businesses and entrepreneurs. The one thing we know about america is that when the level, there is a level Playing Field allamericans do better so one of the ways we level the Playing Field is to have a conversation about Financial Literacy that leads to the path to success for businesses i was a Small Business owner. The one thing i can tell you, is understanding the quagmire pit of finding the credit you need, having access to cash, is incredibly important. That doesnt matter whether youre black, whether youre white, whether youre is had panic, asian or nativeamerican. What we do know however, the impediments the obstacles in the way can be removed if we are better educated how to find the source of funding that we need. Participation in the marketplace is absolutely essential. If we are going to understand that the American Dream is alive and well for all of americans, especially the ones living today in poverty like i did 50 years ago. Charles you know, senator scott, not only does it cover all ages, ranges, races and all, it covers both sides of the aisle. I actually had a progress difference yes. Charles progressive trying to change home own irship in this country. He his main job so not getting people to buy a house, it is learning how to balance a checkbook. Creating a budget. Create all the things first. So you create sort of a foundation so you can start a business. Eventually you can buy a house. You know, seems like everyone is sort of focused on lets get to the roots of these issues, rather than complaining. Yes. Charles lets get some solutions. Youre a Solutions Driven person. Youre so highly regarded. I appreciate your time, senator tim scott. Thank you, buddy. Charles apple, theyre chucking it in, the electric car thing, but generative a. I. . Yeah. Sauer a kuntz is an insider. She knows everything about technology, Silicon Valley. Amazing things are happening as our next guest. 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The farmers dog makes Weight Management easy with fresh food preportioned for your dogs needs. Its an idea whose time has come. The future is not just going to happen. You have to make it. And if you want a successful business, all it takes is an idea, and now becomes the future where you grew a dream into a reality. The all new godaddy airo. Put your Business Online in minutes with the power of ai. vo what does it mean to be rich . Maybe rich is less about reaching a magic number. And more about discovering magic. Rich is being able to keep your loved ones close. And also send them away. Rich is living life your way. And having someone who can help you get there. The key to being rich is knowing what counts. Charles all right, so big news, maybe not 100 unexpected, but in tech land and in this country, apple now bowing out of the ev space. I dont know, i dont think they ever truly wanted to be a part of it, but they had to play the game. Theyre going to shift their resources to a. I. I i want to bring in sarah kunst. Apple was playing catchup the whole time. The place to be is a. I. , the metaverse. I think they really understand they need to be focused there. What do you see happening from here . I think that its good that this revolving door that theyve had of leadership around the car product is finally kind of out the door. I think its hike arely were going to see they implieded that the resources would be shifted, the Human Resources would be shifted to a. I. The reality is they probably have hardware engineer ifs, car engineers who just arent going to make sense in the organization anymore and, you know, we saw this with meta last year. Once you start getting back to your core business, the market tend to love it. Charles yeah. Credit Mark Zuckerberg with that, right . The Autonomous Vehicle thing was big in the sense that youre going to collect a lot of data. Do you think theyre going to completely give up on that as well . I think that they wont give up on it. I mean, the reality is that apple has a device in a ton of cars. Every time i get in a car, my apple device is in that car with me, right . Its not that they cant collect data about where youre going, what youre doing and what youre listening to, its just they dont necessarily need to be a car a company to do that. Charles smart. This whole ev thing, lets face it, a disaster. Outside of tesla are, a disaster. The vc crowd may have pulled a fast one or two on the general public. Rivian with losing 46,000 per vehicle. Lucid losing 37. ,000 377,000. Lucid went public, heres tear investor deck. We think, okay, you know, 2022 well make about 2. 2 billion. It was 600 million. But you really want to talk about a crazy e number, they say last year we think well do about 9. 9 billion. They did 595 million. I mean, golly, does anyone is there anyone if down there double checking the math on these people . I think the market overall has seen a huge amount of slowdown. Ive a been long a fan of the fords and the gm ifs in the electric vehicle is game because i think theres something to be said for already knowing how to build cars, for already having dealerships and distribution channels. So i think for these smaller ev maker, theyve had a hard time getting people the want to buy their cars or know that their cars exist. Even in Silicon Valley i dont see lucid on the road that often, i dont see rivians. I see rivians more, but its not an everyday occurrence. Charles yeah. I think the problem was they were able to raise 4. 5 billion. A lot of people got rich on that change. On that thing. I saw an article, a lot of the startups are shutting down even though they have cash. Im reading that as good. I think its better than plodding them along and somehow foisting them on the American Public as a hot ipo. What do you think . Absolutely. If you are not going to be able to build with something, if youre not going to be able to hit a milestone, raise more money, get to eventual profitability, make some real revenue for your investors, then its better to return that money, wind down your company and go do something that youre good at. So i like it. Charles all right. And we like you. Been too long are, sarah, talk to you again soon. All right, folks, some news just as the show started, apparently some coinbase users are experiencing errors in buying and selling as well as seeing empty account balances. This is scary stuff. This stock has been on fire, but theyre investigating that right now. And, by the way, this comes as, of course, we were talking about apple giving up on these ev dreams. Everyone seems to be embracing nakamotos dream because everyone now buying bitcoin, and a lot of it has to do with these nine bitcoin etfsing, yesterday they broke a record, 2. 4 billion, and it looks its going to keep going on and on, with me now, Anthony Pompliano p. Ironically, you talked about this being the driver of the next leg up. You just told me because of these etfs i guess too much money chasing too few bitcoin. Yeah. I mean, look, what a were watching is a reflexive move in price. This is a classic thing thats happened in finance, retail got in before the institutions which is an important component. So right now theres about 570 million a day of net if new info to the etfs innow, and theres about 50 million being produced by the network. The price has got to go up to accommodate everyone. Charles weve got the table here, the nine etfs. Ibit really taking off bit bigtime. When the committees the fees, theyre trying to get market the fees are incredibly low. Today already weve had 6 billion of trading volume. Charles today. And what we have seen so far, again, if we had 50 million of net new inflows coming in, this was, like, the first day or first week of the launch sale, thats just people being excited and pentup demand. We are almost two months post launch, and were still the seeing 500 million a day. Weve got the halving coming up, so at the same time that all of a sudden the Global Financial world realized that bitcoin might be an asset they wanted to buy and theyre pouring billions of dollars into it, were about to see that network cut their daily production in half. And so naturally, you get a demand shock is, a supply shock, price has got to go up. Charles you said on your podcast that bitcoin, this big move were talking about now, is sounding the alarm on inflation. How closely do you think jay powells watching this, and what do you mean by that . If we go back to 20 to 2020, bitcoin was about 8,000 in the summer of bitcoin, and all of a sudden there were a couple of investors that said im buying bitcoin because i believe inflation is coming, and this will be the fastest force in the inflation bucket. They were correct. It went to 64,000. We got to 64,000, 800 increase, and inflation that had not hit yet. Markets are forward looking. Same thing in september of 2021, bitcoin started to go down because the fed started talking about bringing inflation down. Yes or, the e t f,s are a big deal, but were seeing some data that inflation may be stickier, may come back to some degree, so theres definitely a cohort of people buying bitcoin who want to be protected by the time the damage comes. Charles what about those who are saying because bitcoins going up, its an example of too much money sloshing around, just too much cash out there . If youve got cash, the single most responsible thing you can do at the moment is buy some bitcoin. Dont throw all your money anytime, but its a great way to hedge against the debasement of that a currency. Were watching that governments are now overleveraged in terms of debt, theyre going of to devalue their currencies. You can buy real estate, gold, bitcoin, but i think a lot of people are saying bitcoin is going to be the thing that i want to buy, and theres only 21 million of them. Theres not enough for every millionaire in the world to own. Charles 20 seconds. Bob bailey is saying the institutions still not 00 onboard. I dont know who he is [laughter] hes probably a nice guy, but i disagree. Charles if id had more time i apologize to bob. Im sure hes a fantastic guy. Charles institutions are onboard . Blackrock has 8 billion in their fund, and theyre out there telling people its a flight to quality. Charles bitcoin is a flight to quality. Of course. How are you going to protect yourself, right . If theyre going to devalue your currency and you need something to protect yourself from currency debasement, i think thats why larry fink is going to get institutions onboard. Charles my man. Congratbraces congratulations es, youve been spot on. You know someone else who is always spot on, liz claman. Liz pomps the man when it comes to bitcoin and, boy, has he been right. Fox market alert, th