Earnings season boost from cisco which is at the top of the i blue chips as you can see, up 3. 5 . Shares hitting a 52 week high after cisco reported a top and bottom line beat after the bell yesterday due to its enormous market share as well as future a. I. Opportunities at the company. Investors responding, up 3. 5. Walmart also smashing earnings expectations, raising its fullyear forecast as well. The retailing giant saying that bargainhunting customers buying more grocery staples as Household Budgets remain under pressure which, of course, helped boost sales for the big box retailer. As you can see though, currently trading down 2 . Despite tight budgets, analysts pointing to resilient demand in the u. S. As one of the reasons why the 10year yield is soaring to 10month highs right now. As you can see, up 4. 309 . Investors still have concerns that hot demand could keep inflation and, therefore Interest Rates, higher for longer. Of a lot of people talking about that. Plus, initial jobless claims certainly support those worries. Coming in close to expectations and clearly showing a tight labor market thats barely easing. Its kind of defining the economic textbooks. Well get into that. What does this all mean for the fed, and what should investors be wary of . Lets get to our floor show traders. Prosper Trading Academy ceo scott bauer coming live from the cboe, and u. S. Banks a set Management Group cio eric freeman. Gentlemen, thank you both for being here. Scott, let me begin with you. You call this a controlled defensive approach right now. There are those that say this is healthy after all the gains we saw, weve seen a bit of a rocky august but nothing to panic about, right . Ashley, thats exactly what it is, at least at this point. And, yes, it is healthy for the markets. The reason im calling it kind of a controlled move is because even though were seeing volatility increase across the board, were not seeing the near term volatility in the vix or even in the spx which is right behind me. Were not seeing that near term volatility spike up or move higher than where it is a few months out there now. Is so theres no panic right now for investors or even the institutions to be running to get protection right this moment. So, yes, overall volatility is still up, and it should be. I mean, it was way too low where we were a month or two ago. But its not, its not at panic mode whatsoever. However, i will note that over the last few weeks or so we have seen a decided shift in the putcall ratio. So the amount of puts that are being traded versus the amount of calls that are being traded skew towards the put side. We have seen that over the last, you know, two, three weeks or so. Ashley yeah. Which goes9 with the sentiment that weve been seeing almost daily. Eric, let me ask you, want to ask about treasuries. I was looking up treasuries, the 1year, give you 5. 3 . The 2year, 4. 9 . What about shortterm treasuries are they a may . Yeah, ashley. As they say, when that plate of cookies or biscuits is passed around, make sure you take some, and this is one of those cases where we think investors should be involved in that. [laughter] whether its 6month or 12month or, you know, 24, 36month if type of instruments, theres a lot of hinges you can do in things you can do in shortterm fixed income. Given where Interest Rates are, youre right to point them out, that youre out at a technical level where we as investors really think about how compelling treasuries are versus stocks. Stock not just dividendpaying stocks, but also growth stocks. Our overall take theres plenty of things to do in this environment. We actually would be spreading out some of your exposure in that 6, 12, 24month type of treasury yields but also look at something, underloved parts. Of the equity markets. Energy, same thing with infrastructure, and then finally midcap equities tends to be something that most investors just dont own enough of. They tend to own large cap stocks or small cap stocks, mid caps tend to be an area where we think theres some opportunity. So those are all spots that wed be looking at in the current environment right now. Ashley very good. Scott, let me can ask you about a those big cap tech stocks. Obviously, they dont do well in high Interest Rate environment. Theyre below their 50day moving average. Is there a point with this where you say, you know what . Thats actually a good deal and you jump in, or is there more downward momentum to go in these big tech names . So, you know, the moving average is 50day, 100day, 2300day, those 200day, those are technical daters over a certain period of time, but the fact that we are seeing many of the big cap tech stock, the overall market, the spx, the dow even, russell, nasdaq below their 50day moving averages is a bit concerning. Now, if, you know, if i have been out of the market or even short it, would i start to cover, would i start to take some new positions . I would but slowly. Because what eric alluded to, youre getting, you know, a on 5 on money for a year. Thats pretty darn good. I think that, as a he said, youve got to dip your hand into the cookie jar, but i think that works both in the bond market, in fixed income and also in the stock market as well. So i wouldnt be loading up here, but i do think that, you know, this is an opportunity to pick at it a little bit. Ashley very good. Eric, i wanted to ask you about the fed. What did you make of the minutes from the july meeting . I found it all a little confusing. They seem a little divided. What did you make of it . It was almost like thats essay that you write where you just keep saying the same thing over and over again, but youre hopefully going to win on word count. [laughter] i think the ultimate view we have is its a very, very high bar for the fed to either raise Interest Rates or cut Interest Rates. Theyre in that spot right now where they can buy some time and really think about a higher for longer strategy. So i think you saw was a little more lets call it discord internally. The fed has been very, very consistent in terms of voters. If you look at places like the u. K. , its actually been quite different. Youve had a number of folks that vote on the fed equivalent saying some thing we should raise rates, some think we should cut rates. Bottom line, we think the bar is very high for the fed to do anything besides basically buy more time to see if inflation comes down. There is a huge difference between inflation at 3, 3. 5 and inflation at 2 . This time last year we were talking inflation of, like, 9 , so weve made some progress, but this last mile will be really, really critical. The fed probably stays higher for longer versus raising rates or, again, i think the bulls are really hoping theyll cut rates. We dont think thats going to happen anytime soon. Ashley well, there is that concern, and were hitting session lows as we speak, the dow off 242. Scott, we know, basically, that a very tight labor market appears to be underpinning the economy. But i was looking at the data points. Weve seen a solid increase in retail sales in july, a surge in singlefamily Home Building, economists raising their growth estimates for the Third Quarter. All of this, of course, raising the risk that the fed will indeed be raising rates again. You could argue the economy is heating up in some ways, not cooling down, which is very counteri intuitive to what the fed has been doing. But that said, its a very long question, does the fed raise rates again . Is it forced to do that . Well, youre absolutely right, ashley,s it is counterintuitive which makes the whole picture very, very puzzling for not just us and our viewers, but for the fed as well. Ashley yeah. So, yes, i do think they will raise rates one more time but, again, as eric alluded to, they are in that sweet spot where they can buy some time right now. But if this data keeps consistently being on the hot side or even just that the economy is really looking Pretty Healthy, then theyre going to have to raise rates again. Ashley i think youre right, and thats what more people are believing. Eric, you mentioned energy earlier, and im interested in that. I havent talk about the struggling economy in china, the data points and even the chinese apparently cant hide them. Theyre obviously struggling which could hurt global demand. Talk about a soft recession here next year. It seems that energy, oil in particular, would not be a particular good spot to go because of the lack of global demand. What do you say . Yeah, i think, ashley, theres probably some upside risk of demand. I think, number one, china is going to be in a position where they have to try a variety of stimulus measures to try to get their economy back on track, and that could include things like raising i should say, you know, lowering Interest Rates. But ultimately, china is trying to get more people to buy stuff. And if they cant, theyre going to have to buy stuff themselves. So things like further industrial buildout toes, while it seems like its unnecessary in china, that may be what they resort to. Theres the possibility of some more energy demand. The other thing too is supply is not a light switch that comes on and off. There are a lot of constraints on companies that have been forced on them by shareholders. So there used to be almost this pavlovian response where oil prices would go up, and youd see people out drilling. Drill count has been very, very flat over the past6 36 months despite oil prices edging higher. We think theres probably some upside risk to demand but also more constrained supply which leaves us a little more bullish than perhaps if markets are factoring in right now. Ashley very quickly, scott, with regard to china, i never seem to worry about them because i always think beijing will do whatever it takes to get back on track. They dont really have anyone to answer to. Do you agree . I dont know, ashley, because, you know, you look to the reports coming out, and they seem to be different week by week. Ashley yeah. I dont know what we can really hang our hat on, what we can really believe in. You know, it was just a few weeks ago that the demand side of things were ramping up, and now all of a sudden we see its not there. So i think that any market that were looking to follow whats going on on china, thats going to be a very difficult one and a dangerous one because i just dont think we can trust the data. Ashley yeah. I think youre exactly right. Out of time but great discussion, gentlemen. Eric, scott, thank you very much for joining us on this thursday. We do appreciate it. Thanks so much. Ashley thank you. Now to this story our pleasure new york city is the latest to ban tiktok on governmentowned devices. A report on why the big apple is joining the growing list of cities and states worried about the chineseowned app getting access to u. S. Data. Thats coming up next. As we head to the break, the closing bell will be sounding in about, what, 48 minutes from now. The dow off 283 points. The claman countdown coming right back. Im so glad we did this. Im so glad we did this. Im so glad we did this. Im so glad we did this. Im so. Glad we did this. [kid plays drums] life is for living. Lets partner for all of it. Im so glad we did this. Edward jones ah, these bills are crazy. She has no idea shes sitting on a goldmine. Well she doesnt know that if she owns a Life Insurance policy of 100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. Even a term policy. Even a term policy . Even a term policy find out if youre sitting on a goldmine. Call Coventry Direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect. Com. Goli, taste your goals. Ashley new york city is banning tiktok from cityowned devices and requiring agencies to remove the app within the next 30 days. The scrutiny over the controversial app heating up across the country. Joining me now with the very latest on this is madison alworth. Madison. Reporter hey, ashley. So new york city has decided thatting having the chinaconnected app on its government phones is just too dangers. No more tiktok on mayor adams cell phone, also no more tiktoks from the mayor from new yorks park and rec nor sanitation. That last one definitely a loss, a very funny account with very duringty humor and not in the way that you think. Do you ever just wake up in the morning and think to yourself why, how come and how dare you . Reporter in 30 days no more trash talk because that is when this ban goes into effect. City hall saying in part, quote nycs cyber congressman determined that the tiktok application posed a Security Threat to the citys Technical Networks and directed its removal from cityowned devices. New york city now joins the evergrowing list of cities and states worried about china getting its hands on americans data with 37 states already implementing some level of ban or transition. Restriction. But despite the pushback at the federal, state and local level, the chineseowned app is expanding its offerings. Tiktok is looking to become a central part of americans Shopping Experience by investing heavily in ecommerce or with tiktok shop. Users can shop directly through the videos that they watch, a potentially lucrative revenue stream for the app that is already gaining traction with app users. When it comes to federal legislation, there is a bill supported by a Bipartisan Group of senators that would block tiktok from exporting it data to china. It stops short of a federal ban. And i showed you that map. A lot of these bans have been focused on just government devices, but in minnesota they recently passed a bill in montana, they recently passed a bill that bars tiktok across the state. Unsurprisingly, its being challenged by big tiktok, so we will see what happens there. Ashley . Ashley the story goes on. Madison, thank you very much. The very latest on tiktok. Nonprofit insurer blue shield of california making a Seismic Shift when it comes to its pharmacy benefit manager. Well is that report next. The closing bell coming up in about, what, 42 minutes from now, and we can see the selloff continues. The dow down nearly 300 points. Were coming right back. The biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. It still does. What can you do with spy . You cant buy great conversations or moments that matter, but you can invest in them. At t. Rowe price our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine. T. Rowe price, invest with confidence. phone typing message sound message sound shut it down blackpink in your area shut it down whatwhatwhatwhat . Im saving with liberty mutual, mom. They customize your Car Insurance so you only pay for what you need. You could save 700 dollars just by switching. Ooooh, let me put a reminder on my phone. On the top of the pile oh. Only pay for what you need. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. upbeat music awww. Awww. Awww. Nope. Constant Contact delivers the Marketing Tools your Small Business needs to keep up, excel, and grow. Constant contact. Helping the small stand tall. Ashley fox business alert for you, taking a look at the markets, we are down on the dow now about 300 points, down nearly 1 . S p, same story is, down almost 1 . The nasdaq down 157 points, down about 11. 22 . The eloff 1. 2 . Meanwhile, while theres growing uncertainty, we talked about it, surrounding chinas economy, chinese stocks making a bit of a comeback. Shares of alibaba up 1. 33 as informsering are hoping investors are hoping for more stimulus measures. Chinese media reporting the ccp indicated there will be policies in place to strengthen the economy. Tencent and nio also higher today as you can sea see. In fact, tencent up 6 . On the other side of the coin, wolfspeed shares, take a look at these, they are down 17, almost 18 after the company said it expects a much weaker outlook than analysts predicted. The Semiconductor Company expecting First Quarter sales between 220240 million, slightly lower than the 235. 5 million estimate and also expecting to lose between 6075 cents per share, much more than the 20 cents estimates. Stock down more than 17. 5 . And then theres this story, cvs stock is taking a hit today after blue shield of california said it plans to stop using most cvs Health Pharmacy benefit the Management Services and instead work with others including amazon and mark cubans drug firm in a bid to reduce drug costs for its Insurance Plan members. Not doing much for the stock, shares of amazon just down close to 1 . Well, while people head to amazon for discounted prescriptions, theyre also hoping to get some discounted school supplies. Why not . Retail giant walmart attributing revenue gains in the quarter ending in july partially because of early back to school shopping. And as schools start to reopen, yeah, there could be some sticker shock. Lydia hu breaks it down for us. Good afternoon, lydia. What should parents expect . Reporter to spend a lot of money this year, especially if you have got kids in Elementary School through high school. Those families will on average spend 890 this year on back to school items. Thats a new record from the national e a tail federation retail federation, 25 higher than what was expected last year. All in, the total is expected to hit an unprecedented 41. 5 billion. Last year the total was 36. 9 billion. The higher spending here, ashley, is driven by an increased demand for electronics and higher prices. Government data shows that prices are up for girls clothing and Boys Clothing and stationaryer in stationery as well. And other data from an ecommerce company, pattern, they show prices for a lot of back to school goods many of them right here, theyre all common things; index cards, notebooks, composition books, folders, even mechanical pencils, ashley. Theyre up in price. For example, pattern says mechanical pencils, 16 more expensive this year than last year, folders 13 higher. You mentioned walmart a moment ago. The cfo, john david rainy, talked about strong back to school sales just this morning on the Earnings Call. He credited in part their low are prices. He said, quote, we partnered with suppliers to quitize rollbacks and offer select seasonal baskets of goods at the same prices as last year, essentially removing the impact of inflation. Customer response has been strong. Were taking a similar inflationfighting approach to back to school. So theyre actually seeing success in part because of their low prices that are competitive, and its clear from in that people are hunting for those bargains and, in fact, the National Retail federation says 45 of shoppers are looking for that discount. Theyre going to the discount stores. Thats higher than 40 of shoppers during last year in back to school season. Ashley, back to you. Ashley wow. Gotta find those bargains. Thank you very much, lydia. Great stuff, very informative. Its expepsive, as we know, to be a parent. All right, all of those back to school deliveries arriving in cardboard boxes at the parents homes, but data suggests that box demand is softening, so could that be a harbinger for a recession . Were going to ask the ceo of Republic Services next. Closing bell ringing in about 32 minutes. The dow off 263 points. Well be back. If. Ive spent centuries evolving with the world. Thats the nature of being the economy. Observing investors choose assets to balance risk and reward. With one element securing portfolios, time after time. Gold. Agile and liquid. A proven protector. An everevolving enabler of bold decisions. An asset more relevant than ever before. Gold. Your strategic advantage. [ applause ] the day you get your clearchoice dental implants changes your struggle with missing teeth forever. It changes how you eat, how you feel, and how you enjoy life. It changes your smile and how others smile at you. Clearchoice Network Doctors have changed over 100,000 lives with dental implants, and they can change yours, too. Because a clearchoice day changes every day. Schedule a free consultation. I have type 2 diabetes, but i manage it well. Jardiance its a little pill with a big story to tell. I take oncedaily jardiance, at each days staaart. As time went on it was easy to seee. Im lowering my a1c. Jardiance works 24 7 in your body to flush out some sugar and for adults with type 2 diabetes and known heart disease, jardiance can lower the risk of cardiovascular death, too. Jardiance may cause serious side effects including ketoacidosis that may be fatal, dehydration, that can lead to sudden worsening of kidney function, and genital yeast or urinary tract infections. A rare, lifethreatening bacterial infection in the skin of the perineum could occur. Stop taking jardiance and call your doctor right away if you have symptoms of this infection, ketoacidosis, or an allergic reaction, and dont take it if youre on dialysis. Taking jardiance with a sulfonylurea or insulin may cause low blood sugar. Jardiance is really swell, the little pill with a big story to tell. Meet the team. Behind the team. The coach. The manager. And the snack dad. All using chase to keep up with their finances. The coach helps save goals here, because she saved for soccer camp there. Anddd check this out. The manager deposited a check. Magic. And the snack dad . Hes getting paid back. Orange slicesss. Because this team all has chase. Smart bankers. Convenient tools. One bank with the power of both. Chase. Make more of whats yours. Ashley can those cardboard boxes translate to cold, hard cash . Good question. According to the census bureau, Second QuarterOnline Retail sales rose 2. 1 quarter over quarter while year e over year sales were up 7. 5 . With more goods circumstance hate aring to consumers doorsteps, well, it makes sense theres going to be an abundance of rub rubbish, and theres someone to collect it for a price. Now to Environmental Management company Republic Services, the ceo, john vander ark, joins uhuh us now in a fox business exclusive. John, great to see you. Let me begin with this question hows business . Business is strong. We just came off a really strong quarter, were growing the top line, the bottom line even faster, and obviously theres some ins and outs on the economy, but on balance were seeing still a pretty strong economy. Ashley you know, have you seen a surge in recycle bls . We talk about online shopping, but you look anywhere, theres cardboard boxes everywhere next to the garbage cans for recycling. Have you seen a huge surge in recyclables . Yeah, the recycling market is strong. Weve seen, obviously, prices, ups and downses, but in terms of demand, we know customers want to are recycle, so the amount of material we collect continues to get diverted a away from the garbage and into recycling which we think is great. If we can take manager out of the landfill, which is a cost for us, and repurpose it into something where we create additional value, thats good for our business and circularity as a well. Ashley yeah. The Packaging Corporation says sales of cardboard boxes fell nearly 10 year other year in the last quarter, which is interesting. Some say that could be a possible indication of a recession. Are you seeing any signals like that . Well, i think the box market particularly got a little dislocated with the inventory and Retail Supply chain. So some of those warehouses were filled with things that the consumer might not have wanted to, and when theyre not ordering new things, not producing new boxes, we think thats more of a temporary phenomenon, and thatll get cleared out. And in terms of the overall, we see strength. Theres some pockets of weakness in terms of commercial and residential construction, automotive has been a little slower, but on the industrial side of our business, very, very strong. Ashley youve raised your fullyear outlook, talking of your earnings which were very good, is there any specific reason behind that . What are you seeing . Yeah. Were seeing strength in our traditional recycling and solid waste business, but were also seeing strength in our Environmental Solutions business. Thats a business where we handle more technical waste streams, and were just seeing a lot of command for customers who want integrated offering. We have a Single Source to handle all those needs, and thats created a lot of additional demand and, therefore the, good for our top and bottom line. Ashley you, you have Dumpster Rental business as well, which is interesting. We know that the Housing Market is struggling, and i wonder whether that has any passon effect to you. Hows the Dumpster Rental business going . Yeah. Were down volume wise, were down about 3 yearoveryear, and we forecasted that because we saw the commercial and residential starts start to slow down in the second a half of last year. Ashley yeah. But pricing is up on that business, and theres some encouraging signs in terms of Construction Companies adding, Home BuildingCompanies Adding jobs. And so we think thats more of, you know, a 69 month slowdown here and we should see a pickup certainly in the second half of next year. Ashley almost any Business Owner we talk to, ceo, they always a talk about the tight labor market. Have you experienced any of that . We certainly did last year. We kind of got up into the mid teens for turnover, which is high for us. Were down over 450 basis points yearoveryear, and so excited to see our team staff that allows us to service our customers, and were seeing that show up in employee engagement, our Customer Satisfaction scores are improving, our loyaltys improving and, ultimately, thats good for our p and l. Were not all the way back to where wed like to be, wed like to get it down another 100200 basis points, but were in a very different spot than we were a year ago. Ashley very good. Talking to some of your workers with the Teamsters Union, the teamsters just did a deal with ups and fedex, i believe. How are your relations with the Teamsters Union . Yeah. Listen, we are proemployee so whether our employees are represent or not represent, we want to be the place where the best people come to work, and about a third of our work force on the front line is unionized. We go through those negotiations and certainly bargain fairly with the union and, you know, feel like were in a really good spot in all parts of our labor including those that are organized. Ashley how much has automation changed the business or even looking to the future with all sorts of talk about Artificial Intelligence . Is that going to be a big part of your future . Yeah. Automation has certainly changed the game if you look over the course of a couple decades. You remember the time when there were two people in the back of a truck collecting garbage recycle, and now most of our routes are automated, and so we have a single operate whos not operator whos not getting out of the truck so much and thats good for certainly the employee can and their work environment. It also makes us more efficient. Were starting to see other things in terms of a. I. Like scanning what we tip into the truck and making sure that recycling stream is clean and if people are contaminating that stream, we can actually look at that and let them know, and the cleaner we can make the stream, the better off we do with recycling. Ashley very good. Well, or well leave it right there. Jon vanned iser ark, ceo, Republic ServicesJon Vander Ark thank you very much for joining us today. Have a great afternoon. Ashley and you too, sir. Coming up next, well have a check on the health of Small Businesses in america with the ceo of Jpmorgan ChaseBusiness Banking. The closing bell ringing in just about 200 minutes from now 20 minutes now with the dow off 286 points. Well if well be right back. New projects means new project managers. You need to hire. I need indeed. Indeed you do. When you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. Visit indeed. Com hire and get started today. This isnt just freight. These arent just shipments. Theyre promises. Promises of all shapes and sizes. Each, with a time and a place theyve been promised to be. A promise is everything to old dominion, because it means everything to you. Let Innovation Refunds help with your erc tax refund so you can improve your business however you see fit. Rosie used part of her refund to build an outdoor patio. Clink dr. Marshall used part of his refund to give his practice a facelift. Emily used part of her refund to buy. I run a wax museum. Let Innovation Refunds help you get started on your erc tax refund. Stop waiting. Go to innovationrefunds. Com you really got the brows. Wow, you get to watch all your favorite stuff. Its to die for. And its all right here. Streaming was never this easy, you know. This is the way. You really went all out didnt you . Um, its called commitment. Could you turn down the volume . Here, you can try. Get way more into what your into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network. So, youve got the power of xfinity at home. Now take it outside with Xfinity Mobile. Like speed . Its the Fastest Mobile Service around. With the best price for two lines of unlimited. Only 30 bucks a line per month. Thats hundreds in savings a year when you wave bye to the other guys. No wonder Xfinity Mobile is one of the Fastest Growing mobile services. You really shouldnt walk out the front door without it. Switch today at xfinitymobile. Com ashley major Big Box Stores trying to grapple with increased retail theft. Target thes ceo saying the retailer is facing an up unacceptable amount of organized crime that is affecting that stores bottom line. Lets go live to Grady Trimble in washington now. Grady, its not just the Big Department stores, right, that are taking a hit from this rise in retail crime. Reporter youre right, ash, its the mom and pop stores too. One Restaurant Owner here in d. C. Tells us theyve been robbed five times just this year. They are chasing shootings and drivebyes and, you know, real victim crimes and breakins, unfortunately, on low of on the totem poll of pole of things they can really address. Theyre underfunded and, to be honest, a lot of the police feel very handcuffed themselves. They cant do the policing they used to do. Reporter as for those bigger chains, targets ceo said on its Earnings Call this week that theft is up 120 in the first 5 months of this year compared to last. Back in may he said that the company is expected to take a half a billion dollar hit this year alone because of organized retail crime. Walmart, which reported earnings this week, says this morning, i should say, says its also dealing with an uptick in theft though not to the same level as target is. In los angeles youve probably seen this video of a mob, about 30 people ransacking a nordstrom, taking off with more than 300,000 worth of clothes and shoes and otter items. The and other items. The danger to employees is worth noting as well. Targets ceo brought it upped today, and in this cases police say the crooks used bear pray on a security guard. Today l. A. Mayors, Law Enforcement officials and the District Attorneys Office announced theyre creating a task force of investors working 24 7 to tackle organized retail crime. Literally people are talking about packing up and leaving. We dont want you to leave. This is one of the greatest places on this earth. We dont want people to lose their jobs because shops are closing up because of these type of crimes. Thats how serious we are all taking this. Here in d. C. A giant supermarket is on the brink of closing after losing half a Million Dollars in product because of theft at a single lower case. The supermarket says local officials need to do more to combat theft. Today d. C. s mayor and the Police Department held a press conference, and they say that one thing theyre going to do to try to crack down on crime in the district is to strictly enforce a curfew for kids in certain areas of the district. So well see if that is any source of improvement, ash, because this is a real problem not just here, but across the country. Ashley and it yeah, youre absolutely right, grady. Its crazy video too, to watch anyway, and then you introduce bear spray, its just insane. Grady trimble, thank you very much. Gives us an idea of the problems that businesses are facing. And you know what . Small businesses are also coping with labor shortages. According to the u. S. Chamber of commerces Small Business weekly forecast released monday, 23 of Small Business owners say labor quality is their top concern with 2 is saying 21 saying inflation. According to Jpmorgan Chases latest banking survey, labor shortages and supply chain problems are actually improving. So what are Small Businesses facing in america right now . Its never easy. Lets bring in Jpmorgan ChaseBusiness Banking ceo ben walter in a fox business exclusive. Ben, great to see you. We talked lets pick up where fraidy trimble left off Grady Trimble left off, with crime. Small businesses, you know, we look at the Big Department stores that get hit by these retail crime mobs, but its Small Businesses being affected too, right . Absolutely. First of all, thank you for having me, ashley, its great to be here. Whatever affects big business affects Small Business. Thats true just like anything, you know, whatever affects the society at large affects Small Businesses. Its certainlied had an impact, though its been a bit different. Most of the organized crime rings have targeted bigger business because thats where the large amount of merchandise is. We do hear Small Businesses in certain locations struggling with crime and, obviously, you know what makes this country great is the rule of law, and thats important, and its important for business, for the rule of law to be enforced. Equally though,ish say, when we survey Small Businesses while crime is always a concern, it doesnt rise to the top three. I think its isolated to a few specific areas where it tends to be more intense, but overall its not in the top three. Ashley so top three would be what, inflation, staffing . What else . The top three would be inflation, staffing and supply chain issues. Those have been in the top three for the last six months. But its worth noting that particularly while inflation concerns persist and still about a third of Small Business owners are concerned about inflation, that is down slightly from where we were. The two that have really come down are supply chain and particularly staffing. For the first time in our survey in over six months, both of those are below 20 in terms of the rate of concern among Small Business owners. We havent seen that in the past few months. You do hear stories about the labor market softening, so you would expect to see some of that come through, and the question is how fast that happens. The ability to hire and to hire more quality is really important for Small Business owners, so i take that as an a encouraging sign. Obviously, well have to see how much the labor market continues to slow. Ashley i wanted to talk about the consumer. I mean, this is the key thing here. We know theyre feeling pinched. Theyre starting to pull back a little bit. Theyre looking for all the bargains. Whats that done for the psyche of Small Business owners . Are they pulling back on spending themselves in anticipation the that consumers will be holding back a little bit more . They are pulling back a bit, and where its really manifesting is in temples of the price increases in terms of the price increases theyre able to put through. They do see some pressure on profitability, and the reason they see that is because their wholesale prices continue to go up, but their ability to put those price increases through to consumers has become somewhat constrainedded. Thats normal for this part of the cycle, you know, in some sense thats part of what the fed is trying to accomplish by raising rates and slowing down the economy to protect it from overheating. Thats why you do see inflation starting to come down a bit, but were at that part of the cycle where, you know, it gets challenging because Small Businesses are up against their ability to put through price increases that does have an impact on profitability and their ability to invest. We do see somewhat of a pinch. However, twothirds of Business Owners still say their business is thriving, and thats still Pretty Healthy for this point in the cycle, so i think theres reason for cautious optimism. Ashley thats good. We talk a lot about a. I. Technology. Its starting to work it way into all facets of life, and im sure for Small Businesses as well. As it evolve ises, could Small Businesses find it useful, could it save money . I mean, how are they taking it onboard, do you think . Yeah, incredibly 40 of Small Business owners say they plan to implement some kind of a. I. Driven technology in the coming year. Thats a pretty high number for Small Businesses. Ashley a yeah. A lot of these tools are available more broadly, cloud native applications are terrific. Chatgpts just one of them, theres a number of tools people are using. I was with a a Security Company yesterday whos using a. I. Driven tools to help it monitor safety and security at a number of locations where it provides security services. So i see applications that can be apply across the board and, yes, indeed, it will help them constrain their costs, increase productivity, and itll help them compete in the marketplace. Ashley terrific stuff. How are Small Businesses doing this year, ben, compared to last year . Is it a pullback this year . You know, whats the comparison . So if you look overall, the Lance Armstrong larger end of larger end of Small Businesses are still relatively flush with cash, they still see ample profitability. At the smaller end, there is more of a pinch. We have seen balances decline at the smaller e end relative to this time last year. They always feel the pinch first, so in some sense thats normal for this point in the cycle. But like i said, twothirds still say theyre thriving and about a half say they exr businr despite spite all the pressures out there. Theres a never ending cycle of Creative Destruction thats part of what makes this economy the most dynamic in the world, so its encouraging to still see that. Business formation remains at an alltime high. It spiked after the pandemic. It came down a little bit after the initial surge, but then its come back up. And for the last three months, we have seen Small Business formation that not only exceeds where we were a a year ago, but still where we were in 2019 before the pandemic. People are still feeling optimistic enough to start businesses and take. We lost ashley websters shot. Im lid hue filling in on came man countdown. Well take a quick break. Well be right back after this. Closing bell rings in six minutes time. On this thursday, there are no bulls in sight, dow, s p, nasdaq all in the red. On pace for their Third Straight day of losses. Stocks down more than 2 for the week with the dow on pace for the second down week in the last three. Okay. Now this. The 30 year treasury yield hovering around 4. 4 which is a 12year high. The yield tracking similar gains which we are seeing on the 10year which is already at a multiyear high. What is the bond market telling us about the economy . Centerra management cio, director of Research Gene goldman joins us now. Gene goldman, thanks for being with us on the claman countdown. Thank you so much. Were talking about a lot of news that is coming out this week, and one of the thing were track sergeant federal minutes that were released. One thing interesting were learning from the minutes was the lack to hike the Interest Rate again, nearly you unanimous decision, wondering what your take on that was, if youre surprised by that, what that tell but the potential for another Interest Rate hike . So, great, great question. For me were a little surprised. You think the fed raised rates unanimously in the last meeting. June cpi two weeks earlier came out well below expectation. The minutes came out yesterday and gave some great insight what the fed was thinking. I call it the three cs, cautious, confusion and commitment. Cautious because the fed said inflation is a little high well probably keep raising rates. Confusion, the fed said inflation is high but rates are suggesting that rates should be a little lower. Commitment, the fed said were committed to watching data which the fed should be doing. This is really freaked out the market the commitment to the data. In last month, Second Quarter gdp above expectations, retail sales blew through expectations. Third quarter gdp looks pretty good. Consumer price index is above expectations this is why the market is freaking a out a bit, rates moving higher. Lack of demand and also the fact that the fed indicated longer, higher for longer perspective. This is all pushing upward pressure on yields for the near term. You ticked off a lot of things were watching, seems things that seem to end kate the economy is growing. Retail sales are out, they seem to be booming this week. How many rate hikes do you think the fed is eyeballing right now . The fed doesnt want to sip their hat, we at cetera think is the fed is dong, they will pause for the rest of the year. They will be remain higher longer than expected. As inflation comes down real yields are still who high. This will act like an anchor on the economy. The fed realizes this. Why higher for longer . Think about this, inflation is still above the feds target, Services Inflation is still pretty high but the most important point jay powell is a huge history fan of the fed mistakes in the past and he always quotes in histationand ss volcker from the late 70s, early 80s. Volcker raised rates, cut rates and raised rates dramatically. Powell wants to avoid that scenario. We think well be higher for longer. At this point in the markets, what do you have your eye own as we round out the Investment Opportunities here as we round out the Third Quarter . What youre looking at. Were overweight value versus growth. Were overwatt small cap because small cap valuations are underweight. Were underweight nonu. S. Because we think there are opportunities down the road. One area scarce us, high yield bonds. Bonds are narrow spread. Youre not getting confirmation for the risk. Relative to commercial real estate these two yields relative to treasurys trade vest, very closely. Youre seeing high yield spreads are flat. Commercial real estate measured by cmbs spreads have surged dramatically. Were worried about that. Were worried about high yield bonds. We love industrials, we love health care and financials. Financials seem like a surprise. Financials valuations are more attractive. You have potential m a activity. You have the fact that easier comparisons yearoveryear relative to Capital Markets like fewer ipos last year, fewer debt issuance last year. This is good for yearoveryear comparisons. An interesting point there, gene. We just heard from Jpmorgan ChaseSmall Business ceo even Small Businesses are feeling optimistic. More of them starting to bring their businesses online. A good sign there is confidence in the strength of the economy there. Gene goldman, thank you so much for joining us. [closing bell rings] that is all for the claman countdown today. Were watching the closing of the market. The dow looks like it will close around just less than 1 . We will see you here. Larry hello, folks, welcome to kudlow, im larry kudlow. Said down for an