Panda, subprime mortgages, george w. Bush and todays bond market have in common . I will give you a few seconds. Let me know when you have an answer. Kung fu panda, subprime mortgages, george w. Bush, todays bond market. We are out of time. Actually, three of those four items i just mentioned occurred in summer of 2008. The last one is occurring right now. The bond market is doing something we have not seen since 2,008. The yield on on the 10 year note is back to what it was 15 summers ago when kung fu panda was number one movie in this country, george w. Bush was president of this country, and subprime mortgages were roiling the markets, the economy went beyond this country, the good old days. Maybe not. We all know how that worked out. For certain financial meltdown. Flash to today and made the melt up, talking about Interest Rates climbing as we speak about not showing any signs of petering out anytime soon, north of the 4. 3 the tenure rate is still climbing, so is the 30year and so are Mortgage Rates, close to 7. 5 more than 7 . It wants to go to 8 . Hard to compare because pushing up Interest Rates now is a booming economy, not a collapsing one, no financial shockers we can see yet but thats the thing about history, my game show contestant friends, hard to judge it when you are in the middle of it. When you are in the middle of something, not on labor on the rates are going higher but so far the markets are melting. So what the kung fu is going on here . Why dont we get to it right now . I admit it. I always wanted to be a game show host. Welcome, everybody. Glad to have you on neil cavuto and where were you 15 years ago this very day . I know i was covering the mortgage crisis that was turning into a market crisis that was causing new prices triggering a Global Political crisis and it was far from over. It all seems ancient in retrospect save the sober interestrate reminder today. Should we worry now . I think i was talking to peter back then and years before. Good to have you. It is interesting. 2,008, i am wondering do we get all the other stuff associated with 2008 . I love the history lesson. Amazing to go over the different moving parts that made up the mortgage crisis and what is going on with treasuries. It feels like maybe that could be what the future portends here but it doesnt feel that way from whats going on in the market. I think we cannot judge what happened back then. So much has changed. Im a Firm Believer that the markets and the whole financial environment and landscape has changed so radically that there is no way for us to judge what is happening now relative to whats going on with treasuries. The market reminds me of what is going on, the economy and markets, trade in concert, sometimes some level of diversions. The market is showing us we are having a spectacular year after a devastating year. I know in the last four or five days or three or four weeks, we see a fallback. It is a fast and furious rally the last 8 months that have been spectacular, the tech sector specifically but the market overall, the fact that now do we immediately lunge back to 20078 and Start Talking about the doomsday scenarios . Ashley kung fu panda was acute movie weve got to put in perspective. Interest rates are backing up for all the right reasons so far they reflect the resilience of the economy and the consumer, that is keeping not only stores crowded and busy, walmart latest case of that today but planes and vacation destinations. That is the backdrop for this. How do you put that in perspective for the markets . It is interesting. It is fascinating because companies are being given a chance, the Retail Market obviously has a lot of challenges and a lot of these Companies Still coming out of covid and coming into 2,023 have a lot of challenges globally and whatnot. They are given the chance to reevaluate themselves in the world like walmart. A completely new facelift and think about it, walmart dipped into the food business for a while, redoing the whole general overview, who would have thought walmart would be trading where it is today and being such a vibrant company in so many sectors, thats the amazing part. We are seeing companies diversify. Public companies within their sector completely diversified in so many different industries, that is they are being forced to pivot, reevaluating their position in the marketplace and doing a good job of it. Lauren 1 might be history does not repeat itself but sometimes it can rhyme, the rhyme with 2,008, you mention those examples, not quite in sync with that, knock on whatever but there were a lot of younger investors, do they seek you out for advice, what do you tell them about now the concern for banks, the Technology Stops have gone up too far too fast, what do you tell them about the latest trends . At this point it is important to note what happened during covered, the incredible democratization of the trading and Investment Community of 40 million plus new traders globally coming into the marketplace and it is never too late to invest in the market. I try to come out with a strong message for young people who invest in stocks as we are the biggest consumer generation. Im a little older, not as old as i look sometimes but i think we have a generation that is a massive consumer generation but so important for them, think about 20yearold now whose eyes are on the stock market, not wasting as much money on stocks and starting to put money to work investing in their future. Thats a great message to be bringing out. Weve spoken about it before. A massive generation of the 18 to 30yearold who are starting to invest in the stock market. All eyes are on what goes on here at the nyse and they are investing in their future and that is a great thing. That is going to override the other challenges we are seeing and it because 40 Million People getting into the market, new generation of investors with a new eye on this market, should be an exciting time, not to say we wont have headwinds and challenges but thats a great message we need to talk about. Neil you are a great message deliver. You talked about getting involved in the markets. I told my kids, your mother and i are keeping everything, youre getting nothing so start investing. It is great seeing you, thank you very much. Always a pleasure. Neil weve got the executive Vice President and principal of berkshire hathaway, good read and another market we look at a lot which is the real estate market. You are facing if you think about it and environment of higher Interest Rates presumably for all the right reasons but you worry about the impact that is going to have, because you have people out there, maybe we are at a housing bottom, maybe that is it and we are up from here even in the face of those higher rates. What do you think . I think this. If you talk about the money people get for the sector, as an example, Interest Rates have gone up three times in the last 18 months and demand is just still there with real estate, people want to buy houses. This is not like it was in 20078 where prospective investors in the market, these are people buying places to live. I will say this. This is just my opinion but a different read on the Interest Rate implication on the marketplace is this. How about this . 42 of people own their houses outright. 58 that is left, if you look at the median value of what that property is worth, they owe about half of that on it. This movement in rates right now may not be having the impact, the narrative the media wants to spin on it. 40 of people buying houses, guess who they are, not millennials, boomers. Lauren 20 very true to that. If you look where we were 15 years ago so many people as the meltdown ensued, really picked up steam in fall of 2008, they were upside down, they owed more than their homes were worth and that psychologically affects you and fed this recession where people were afraid by anything if they could buy anything so theres nothing like this but the flipside is theres a lot of those homeowners today who dont want to stay right now. Its not the right time and they move into something more expensive so its a draw here. Heres what i think. Only two places you will get inventory. Placed number one, mr. Buffett showed us the other day he put 800 million into the builders, he is super. On the builders and we will get inventory from them putting houses up and putting inventory in the marketplace. Is the second one, this one is a hard to swallow pill and you may look at me with one eye, eyebrow raised up, how about this . How about we get rid of Capital Gains taxes for two years, take investors who own properties and ask them guess what, sell your property, put it back in the marketplace, get inventory or we wont give you Capital Gains at all. That would be another way that we could bring more Housing Inventory into the space, and because of that, allow people to start buying houses again. Neil i assume you didnt have a drink at lunch but that would be wonderful if it comes to that but we will see how that sorts out but great ideas, great catching up with you. An interesting read. That could hold a lot of potential supply. Gordon chang is with us, senior fellow of the coming collapse of china. We are talking about all these variables for the markets, china. Whatever you think of china, too militaristic, too in your face, are in a world of economic heard and as china goes as an economic engine for the world, that could be a problem for the world. What do you think of that . Going back to your discussion with peter tuckman, china right now is having its 2,008. In 2,008, it decided it was not going to allow the market to wash over beijing so decided it was going to embark on the biggest Stimulus Program in history. Now the economy is exhausted and they dont know what to do. People talk about paralysis but it is also a part the technocrats in beijing understand theres nothing they can do to make the situation better. So on your second point about china being an engine of Global Growth, china is not an engine of Global Growth, predatory and kernel practices taking growth from other countries, the engine of Global Growth is us because we are buying the goods and services of other countries so china will have its problems, they will be panicked because people dont understand china and its role in the Global Economy but we will be okay, the chinese will not. Neil if china is not sharing economic numbers with us like they used to, not that they were always trustworthy, you were the first i was talking too many years ago who didnt trust them, like john lovett, the s l character, exaggerated everything but rather than doing that they are not acknowledging that youth unemployment is running north of 23 , those are depression type numbers. Yes, its even worse because in june beijing admitted to 21. 3 or the youth cohort, 16 to 24 but when you add in the 16 Million People who have been discouraged to take themselves out of the workplace we are talking about a 45. 5 unemployment rate. That comes from a peking University Professor when looking at the march numbers is probably worse now so you have a whole generation in china right now that is basically opted out. You have the full time children. This is really serious, and by the way, they are leaving china and what we are seeing across the southern border are a lot of Young Chinese who have given up on their society all together. Neil glad i have you because as a former Real Estate Developer friend of mine who also monitors big transactions in the new york metropolitan area and elsewhere, fewer and fewer chinese buyers, i dont know what that means so i will ask you what does that mean . I think it means theres less and less chinese wealth, the other thing that it means is beijing has been tightening up on cash outflows. It used to be, they had very strict currency rules and china, currency is not convertible, all sorts of capital controls. People were getting money out anyway but as the flow started to increase, my sense of it is that beijing tightened those outbound rules because they remember what happened in 2015 which was almost a neardeath crisis for the economy. They dont want to go through that again so i think you are finding that a lot of chinese cant get their money out, but also, a lot of wealthy chinese have lost big sums over the last couple years. Neil even if you are just mirroring the Chinese Market you are underwater, thank you very much. Gordon chang on those developed. The georgia da had this investigation for the better part of 2 and a half years, she wants to rush a trial gate, get one going as soon as march 4th. What do you think donald trump has said about this. Cover your ears. You cant buy great conversations or moments that matter, but you can invest in them. At t. Rowe price our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine. T. Rowe price, invest with confidence. I did have hearing aids from another company. I was just frustrated. I almost gave up. With miracle ear its all about service. Theyre personable. Theyre friendly. Im very happy with them. We provide you with a free lifetime of aftercare. Meaning free checkups, cleanings, and adjustments. I see someone new. Someone happy. Its really made a difference. Call miracle ear at 1800miracle and schedule your free, no obligation hearing evaluation today. Wow, you get to watch all your favorite stuff. Its to die for. And its all right here. Streaming was never this easy, you know. This is the way. You really went all out didnt you . Um, its called commitment. Could you turn down the volume . Here, you can try. Get way more into what your into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network. Adam six days from the big debate on fox. We are learning the tim scott is making curious moves placing a milliondollar ad in New Hampshire and iowa, dont how quickly those ads materialize. Hes surging. More on that in a second. Of the read on this and where things stand right now and everything donald trump related and whether he goes to the debate and whether he can avoid starting a trial regarding the georgia issues as soon as next march. Lets go to the National Politics reporter, and former clinton advisor and pollster, julia, what do we know on the march 4th trial date, the District Attorney wants . There is no way that could happen, right . It is inconceivable that someone who has been working for 21 2 years on a case can rush it that quickly at least the trump folks are going to say too much too fast. What happens . A lot of legal experts have said it is too much too fast and cant conceive of how this could happen that quickly. One notable thing about that date is i believe supertuesday is the day after or the day before, within a few days of that trial date. That begs the question of how does donald trump juggle appearing for all these Court Appearances while at the same time being on the campaign trail and focusing on his president ial campaign. It is going to be a logistical factor in how he moves forward and it could be logistically challenging, weve seen him turn these indictments and arraignments into campaign spectacles in his favor but when it comes to the logistics it is a challenge. Stuart neil i have a feeling i could be wrong, im not a lawyer but i cant see any of these four, cases coming to trial before the election. They are a post election phenomena and . What do you think . I will agree with you. Im not a practicing lawyer either. Theres going to be an endless amount of motions, when they have 19 or 18, 19 different defendants in georgia, that means 19 times motions about this trial. It seems unlikely. Stuart 19 sets of lawyers, you said it right there. It seems unlikely and it does seem this is timed to interfere with the ability for him to run his election but this will be a major factor here. The first debate is in a few days, this is the first time Republican Voters are going to see the alternatives and make a judgment between trump and one or more of the alternative candidates running. It is the beginning of this thing. Stuart julie are right about that. This has been batting around a lot here and everywhere, Donald Trumps not to go to the debate next week, he leads by a country mile, indeed he does but i am wondering what is the fallout from that . How do you play that out . A lot of it depends on what donald trump decides to do instead of going to the debate. In 2016, right before the Iowa Caucuses he decided to skip debate and hold his own event. He could try to do some sort of counterprogramming with the event. In terms of how to fix the debate stage with the rest of the field, with someone like ron the santos, i dont think it impact him because we dont have donald trump attacking him but ron desantis is going to be target number one in this campaign, hes going to be target number one from everyone else on the debate stage because you have this other tier of candidates, ozempic team, tim scott, nikki haley, mike pence, trying to get into that second place spot so they can turn their attention on trump but with desantis in the way they will want to knock him so hes number one on the stage. Adam about that, he needs a comeback kid moment like bill clinton did, when he was given up for dead politically speaking, he did well enough in New Hampshire, he played second when he was off and running. And Hillary Clinton would support it, then he came back. Is there that in the offing . Very different case i grant you with the Governor Desantis that he has been given up and tossed aside, doesnt have a chance now. Sorry. Let me ask you because we lost our connection. That moment for desantis. His allies are hoping this will be a comeback moment. Ron desantis has always lagged in name id compared to donald trump. Donald trump is the former president. Ron desantis has a lot of National Attention but is still the governor of the state of florida. His supporters say this could be an audience of 20 million plus voters. He could have a really good moment that could lead to a bump in the polls to get more attention. The problem with that which a lot of critics say, hes had this much, these many issues so far including a new campaign manager, two rounds of playoffs, a lot of negative headlines, that that is happening so early, a bad omen for what is to come, two schools of thought here but desantis allies viewing the first debate as sort of opening day of the primary season. Adam in q for that. We had some problems. In the meantime be careful of those polls at this juncture, the 2016 race, jeb bushs race to lose the republican nomination, donald trump was not given a chance. That was then. Be careful about making prognostications now, at least attempting. We have the latest on that and the latest out of maui, sobering numbers to share with you. Im so glad we did this. Im so glad we did this. Im so glad we did this. Im so glad we did this. Im so. Glad we did this. [kid plays drums] life is for living. Lets partner for all of it. Im so glad we did this. 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A lot more people on the floor searching for our loved ones. It is a massive effort. Adam the home you are renting was destroyed, i take it. Where do you live now . What are you doing now . The home i was renting was one of the first that caught fire by the bypass. Neil at least she had a place to go to and wants to make sure others have places to go to. All of this as the maui fire is already the deadliest in us history. 111 known dead, a thousand still missing. Robert ray with the latest. Reporter good afternoon to you, the sun is just up here and it has been over a week since these fires and theres an active search on the ground. Look at this video of cadaver dogs and fema moving through the Historic Town looking for the remains of any sort of life. They are not going to find that. They are looking specifically for bones, to be as graphic as i can, some form of dna they can identify. Hundreds of people are unaccounted for at this point in that town which is block after block destruction. I go through and saw with my own eyes and could tell you there is nothing left at all, the charred remains of a town of 12,000 people on the west side of maui and as we saw people jumping into the Pacific Ocean to save their lives, 111 people are confirmed dead unfortunately. Weve been speaking to a lot of people on the ground over the last week. I spoke to one gentleman who runs the Hawaiian Cultural Center which is now gone, burned to the ground. Hes trying to figure out his path forward and help residents. Also spoke to fema, individual on the ground who describes what he is thinking. Never seen anything like this ever. Absolute worst that after i have ever seen. We can ease the pain. Reporter so much pain and a lot of questions out there right now. How did this fire start . Was there a proper alert . As i have been describing, the search for more humans continues as those dogs on the ground and President Biden expected to survey whether he does it from the ground or from the air. Unclear at this point. It is still an active natural disaster, the deadliest wildfire in 100 years. Neil 1000 still missing. Theres a lot still missing and still missing, the number has not changed. It is a high number and alarming, i have to think based on the experience being on the ground, and they are not checked in. And in the middle of the ground, there were 60 people, and we are going to see more of that. We heard from officials we were going to see this death count go up. As we stated, there are literally nearly a thousand people unaccounted for. On the ground in hawaii. Adam you covered so many tragedies. Thank you very much. R erc tax d so you can improve your business however you see fit. Rosie used part of her refund to build an outdoor patio. Clink dr. Marshall used part of his refund to give his practice a facelift. Emily used part of her refund to buy. I run a wax museum. Let Innovation Refunds help you get started on your erc tax refund. Stop waiting. Go to innovationrefunds. Com you really got the brows. Pano ai chooses tmobile for business for 5g solutions. Because tmobile helps pano ai innovate, so they can stop the spread of wildfires. Nows the time to see what americas largest 5g network can do for your business. With a majority of my patience with sensitivity, i see irritated gums and weak enamel. Sensodyne sensitivity gum enamel relieves sensitivity, helps restore gum health, and rehardens enamel. Im a big advocate of recommending things that i know work. Neil you wonder how this affects the price of the goods you get in stores. Target and walmart coming out with great sales figures with good guidance with 20 increase in theft incidents that have resulted, balanced threats, businesses of all sizes facing the same problem. Grady trimble has the latest. Reporter we got the target info from a turning scholarly are in the week saying get one hundred 20 in the first five months of this year compared to the same time last year. This is a problem weve been talking about for years, the numbers were already elevated last year. Targets ceo says these problems, theft and shoplifting getting more dangerous for the employees on the front lines having to deal with it. And may in terms of the total losses the target is expecting, and half 1 billion just this year because of shoplifting and organized retail crime. Walmart reported earnings, they are seeing an increase in theft but not to the same degree in specific cities and they think those jurisdictions need to do more to crack down on organized retail crime. Here in the nations capital, one city councilmember wants mayor Muriel Bowser to call in the National Guard to get a handle on crime. So far, she has resisted even as businesses struggle. Enough is enough. Those who live here know that we are clearly in a war zone. I will say it again. We are clearly in a war zone. Reporter one giant supermarket in dc says it is on the brink of closing after losing half 1 million in product because of theft in that one supermarket location alone. We have invested in a host of measures to mitigate the effort at this store and across many stores. We need the help and partnership of the community and local officials to combat the theft and violence that continues to escalate. In los angeles, you see the video of 50 people ransacking a nordstrom location. The mayor and Los Angeles PoliceDepartment Holding a press conference in this topic of organized retail crime as they speak. What we are learning from that press conference is that they are establishing a task force and the soul job would be to investigate organized retail crime. Thats what the problem has become in that city and cities across the country at businesses large and small. Neil you might have noticed out of los angeles, store workers were involved in the prime deal, the effects going on because in many cases, trying to protect the store and customers at the store. Our next guest wants to stop that. Michael fitzpatrick is a new york states and women, if you try to intervene you dont lose your job. That is the gist of it but explain to me what you are trying to do. Great to be with you. I filed the bill to prevent determination, in the theft of merchandise, the establishment in which they work. I was moved to file the bill after reading a story in the New York Post about a young lady who prevented a theft. She lost her job. No one should lose their job. Neil this is about protecting that employee and workers around them. That is legitimate concern. I have had an experience, love the target, and as im entering the store, fully loaded cart overloaded with boxes underneath, teaming with merchandise as i approached, started running faster out the door and i heard a security person call get security, get security, the guy ran by me and i instinctively turned around, chased the guy down, told him to let it go, told me to mind my own business, very deep voice, with both hands on the handlebar, said let it go. He ran away, brought the cart back in and security person was nice and she said we are for bitton to chase after him and i said that is unfortunate. I said it is funny we are talking about this. Not two hours ago, had a conversation with Legal Counsel to grab the bill to protect retail workers who do step in and do the right thing. People cant make their own assessments, if its a situation they dont want to get involved in they are not compelled to do so, it would be a breach of policy but if someone does this, it should not be a black mark on their record. They did the right thing, prevented a theft, no one should lose their job because of that. Neil i am glad you are okay after your own incident. Thank you very much. In the meantime, brian will tell you whats coming up on the big money show. Brian hawaiian electric, Utility Company in the hot seat over the tragic blaze in maui seem to know its powerlines made sparks but maybe it is too focused on going green to do anything about it. We will talk to a survivor and Business Owner about what hes seeing on the ground. Somebody would ask her something and she would just walk right past them. She didnt know they were talking to her. I just could not hear. I was hesitant to get the hearing aids because of my short hair. But nobody even sees them. 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The stock is under pressure right now, that might have something more to do with whats happening in the real estate front and whats happening on the Interest Rate front that could block people from going to stores like wal mart and target some of these others, but the guidance that walmart gave was enough to make people think you know theyre doing okay. My next door there does that very well. Winter cells all is the book. Jason del rey is 80 chronicles, walmart and amazon and the battle they had. Its a very fun and intriguing read on this , jason. Good to have you great to be here. First of all walmart kind of firing at all cylinders now, but there was a time in your book and looking back where it looked like that might not be the case. Um what happened . Yes so this is one of the greatest cases of the innovators dilemma where theyre Super Centers were firing on all cylinders. But then this Little Company in seattle named Amazon Online retailing came onto the scene and they couldnt quite figure it out or invest heavily enough to slow amazon down. You know what . You were brilliantly gone. Im not blowing smoke, but i enjoy your writing. Ah and i can remember this was a criticism of amazon in the early days. They dont make money to stock his flying high. They dont make any money. And yet they were building out this huge infrastructure that would allow them to be the cash cows behemoth they are, whereas with walmart it was, yeah, we want to go online and do that, but we dont want to be, you know, digging in deep like amazon losing money, year after year. Do you think that was a bad move . You know, i think it was partly the expectations that were already built into warm to wall streets expectations from walmart and wall street puts pressure on you, right . We want to see you making money when youre right. Absolutely and so one of the most brilliant things jeff bezos did was from day one as a Public Company said, were thinking long term , you may not see profit short term. You may not like it, but eventually were going to expand. Were going to generate free cash flow, and he and the cfl. So at the time at amazon woman named joy covid they they nailed that. And walmart. You know, they had to think more short term, you know, im fascinated by how you got into the personalities, particularly kicking off the book doesnt that just phases you were at an event, i guess. And you asked him. What was he going to be wearing or whatever, but it came back. They were offended by it. Or even he had bristled at it and the people around him, but they came back to what you were getting at, right . Yeah, thats right. So amazon was just starting to get into making their own clothing lines. And so i knew i had maybe a minute or two with jeff before he went on stage and asked him if he was wearing any any amazon brands, and i think i startled him. He asked me if he was on the red carpet, but he regrouped. Regrouped he came back. He talked about Melding Technology with human stylist to maybe come out with a service that amazon leader did , which was, you know their own type of personal style. And what a major exactly similar to stitch fix it, i guess because im intrigued with him is one of the worlds certainly one of the worlds richest men. You talked about his gut you talked about. Not all of the ideas would pan out, referring to him, but many did and industry shattering away as he and his deputies have done it with bookselling Cloud Computing with amazon web services, video streaming prime video voice assistants, alexa grocery delivery and amazon. You know, i can remember molded to remember a lot of those expansive ventures. He was ripped a new one, but people who were not fit to judge what did you make of that . Yeah and you know, we in the media, or, you know, skeptics often and some of them have worked out, but you know, some of them have it and so, but he always believed and i think he had a leadership around him for very long time that believed as well. They were on the same page often. Now weve seen that change in the last couple of years. Hes stepping aside as ceo talk about trying to push him back in. Yeah i listen. He looks very comfortable on his 500 million yacht. Um so i dont know about that. And i think andy jassy, the current ceo there for a long time. I think hell put his mark on the company. But its been a tough Inflection Point year with the layoffs. And morales. Not great inside that company, so i think the next 6 to 12 months will be very important to see what this Company Looks like. Under a new leader, you know, youve got a good sense early on and looking at this stage covering this beat for what a decade decade, right . Um that one or the other was going to survive. Both are thriving, presumably for the time being. You see that continuing i think walmart finally figured out how to use their Super Centers for online retailing. This pickup business is huge. I think their Delivery Business you know, is getting their business grew in this latest period. 25 thats right , and now we see them chasing some of the prophet engines of amazon, especially the advertising business, one that is generating now 40 billion a year for amazon, much smaller at walmart, but theyre trying to imitate them. In some ways. You know what we havent seen yet fully, is them trying to sort of lead in a new way . Thats walmart in the digital realm. But do you wonder that someone else is leading in a new way that someone else is doing the stitch thing or someone elses its getting into areas that these guys dont see. I mean, there are a couple of best top ranked shopping apps, based out of china xi in is one. Thats a clothing app, right . Ooh is another and i question how sustainable those Business Models are. But both companies are paying a lot of attention and then tiktok is another company where commerce is part of what they wanted their oh, thats what jason del rey, thank you. Winner cells, all amazon, walmart and the battle for a while. Its it is a fast and a fund rate will more to this. You cant buy great conversations or moments that matter, but you can invest in them price. Our strategic investing approach can help you build the future. You imagine t. Rowe price invest with confidence projects means new project managers you need to hire. Indeed, indeed you do. 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