Moments on mornings with maria with in this weeks edition of the weeks talkers. Are we close . Do we expect we will see a deal . Youre seeing businesses come back. This Unemployment Insurance is a really big issue for businesses right now. One of the key issues that was missing was sufficient funding for schools to reopen, both enough for testing and ppe. Maria President Trump set to grant kodak a 765 million loan under the defense production action. This is the beginning of american independence from our pharmaceutical dependence on foreign countries. Maria there you were every day at the u. N. Representing the United States, sitting next to, dealing with your colleagues from china, and you know that the intellectual property theft has been going on for decades. What the United States needs to do is we need to let them know were on to them. We need to actually follow through on the intellectual property measures that were in that trade deal that we had and hold them accountable. Maria give us the state of affairs in new york right now in terms of commercial real estate. Were seeing Companies Start to dip their toe back in the water. These, you know, heses that were signed, you know, reaffirm that. Maria youve got one campaign paying for dirt on another campaign, and youve got the amazing intelligence agencies of our government weaponized. Did president obama direct any of this . Thats not how it works. Thats not how our investigations work. We with hook for the Intelligence Community to bring forward the information, expect dossier, i would imagine, would be one piece of a much bigger picture. Maria also this week the Federal Reserve announced it is Holding Interest rates at zero or close to zero for the foreseeable future until 2024. While noting that the economy has picked up in recent weeks, chairman jay powell says hes seeing a rollback in growth. Joining me right now to talk about the week that was and look ahead is blackrocks global chief Investment Officer of fixed income, rick reider, overseeing 2. 3 until in asset funds trillion in asset funds and management. Thanks so much for youing us this weekend. Great to be here. Appreciate it. Maria and it was a big week. You had the Federal Reserve, a lot of earnings, let me get your take on what struck you this week in terms of giving up guidance about where were going. Federal reserve leaving rates where they are, as expected. Earnings news from a bunch of companies, big tech on fire, crushing estimates with their earnings. Yeah, theres a lot of Important News that came out this week. First of all, the fed. The feds not touching Interest Rates for a long time. Jay powell could not be more clear about that. Were going to be at zero for 34 years. By the way, people underestimate when you have things hike equities which are Long Duration assets, the way from the way you calculate the value of equities, when you keep rates at zero, its an explosive impact. So that was big. The other thing that the fed is doing and will continue to do, is they keep extending their programs and putting more liquidity in the system, and i think theyre going to grow the size of their Balance Sheet even bigger. The amount of cash sitting on the sidelines waiting to go into different markets is extraordinary. Anyway, those are big factors. The technology, the dynamics, you know, weve talked for years about what i call fast rivers of cash flow. The Technology Changing commerce, and you saw that play out with some of these tech earnings this week. Some of it moving faster because of the coronavirus in a virtual economy. But i actually think that get overstated. These are trends that are real and durable and have been played for a while and maybe accelerated a bit faster. And the last thing i would say, maria, its huge when you dissect these earnings. We like to look at how its impacting secondary and tertiary things, semiconductors or producers in technology and regional. And the things, one of the things that was incredible was the growth in china continues to be extremely strong. And you see that through all the earnings reports, which is pretty impressive x. Then in europe, some of the outlooks in europe were more optimistic than i would have thought they would have been about the near term. And actually in the u. S. While the growth in the economy has come back quite a bit, i think people underestimated that new yorks economy can grow, youre seeing it level off a little bit. Some of the companies have said, gosh, guy dance is harder because of where we are related to the coronavirus. Maria there are real ramifications for rates so low. Youre getting no return in so many areas of fixed income, and they say there is no alternative, so youve got to put your money in stocks. If were going to wait for rates at these levels, then should i believe that the market continues at high levels, rallying until 2024 . So, maria, theres two things that are really important. One is demographics. Talking about for years on your show the aging of the population, pension funds, insurance companies. When you press rates to zero, the demand for income is extraordinary. So we see that in fixed income where people are putting their money, places like credit, places like secured assets to get me some, you know, things hike mortgages. So that plays out. And the second is, as you said, there are no other alternatives. And, you know, if you take the earnings yield and the Free Cash Flow yield to the equity market, that is at 4. 55 . Rates are at zero, the Free Cash Flow yield of equities is up to 5, its interesting, as stocks go up, their holdings in their portfolios go higher, so theres an interesting dynamic. While valuationses are not bad on a historic basis, people actually, if you hook at the flows, people reduce equities and buy bonds. And its a really interesting dynamicking which, ultimately, you get some selling because people reduce so they dont have too much overweight to equities, but then, you know, money will keep coming in and drive i think equities have more upside e to go as a result of it. Maria and on the earnings that weve seen and this huge move into tech, you made a really good point in that these issues are real. Certainly, the covid19 disaster helped the Digital Economy penetrate even further, but getting i mean, you look at amazon, apple, all these companies benefiting so much. You didnt, you know, even netflix benefiting from the shutdown. You think this is long lasting . So, maria, i dont mean to be too extreme, but i think were going through one of the greatest Technology Revolutions of all times. People talk about some of the big names, but if you go to artificial intelligence, cloud, virtualization of the world, data assimilation, look at Companies Like a ups that is using data and logistics or a company like a walmart, the way company are utilizing data to bring their cost structure down, to improve their lo gist ices, we are in the nays shent stages. Apple, i think they gave the number 519 billion worth of application that is being utilized on their platform. So you think about all the bold, you know, how mobility working told, and i really think people are underestimating that maybe, you know, youre in not what is just the big parts of technology that maybe become more clear, but the secondary and tertiary things as you get more development off of that. I really think that the world of commerce is shifting in a pretty significant way. We talk about the earnings this week, look at the energy companies, talk about tesla and the move to electrification. You know, this is the ability to actually use different forms of energy, power, power storage. Its pretty were in a pretty interesting point in time. Maria great call and great to see you this weekend, rick. Thank you so much for joining us. Thanks, maria, for having me. Maria ill see you soon. Rick reider from blackrock. Dont go anywhere, nancy lazaro is up looks like they picked the wrong getaway driver. Theyre going to be paying for this for a long time. They will, but with accident forgiveness allstate wont raise your rates just because of an accident, even if its your fault. Cut sonny. Was that good . Line the desert never lies. Isnt that what i said . No you were talking about allstate and insurance. I just. When i. Lets try again. Everybody back to one. Accident forgiveness from allstate. Click or call for a quote today. 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But when you have the chase mobile app, your bank can be virtually any place. So, when you get a check. You can deposit it from here. And you can see your transactions and check your balance from here. You can detect suspicious activity on your account from here. And you can pay your friends back from here. So when someone asks you, wheres your bank . You can tell them heres my bank. Or heres my bank. Or, heres my bank. Because if you download and use the chase mobile app, your bank is virtually any place. So visit chase. Com mobile. Maria welcome back. The u. S. Economy saw its worst decline ever this past week as the gdp shrank nearly 33 in the second quarter. We were expecting a contraction, but 33 was obviously so sharp. While a rebound is expected in the second half, how will the recent virus spikes affect the recovery . Lets get into it with Cornerstone Macro cofounder, nancy lazar. Thank you for being with me this weekend. Nice to see you too. Maria im looking at your recent report where you say there is significant Downside Risk to the july payrolls. Give me your assessment of the gdp this week, and tell me why you are expecting Downside Risk in the upcoming jobs report. Well, the gdp report for the second quarter, thank goodness, was old news. Since then we have clearly see a rebound in Economic Activity, may, june data, industrial production, housing, capital good orders, etc. , were all very strong. That was pretty much discounted that the gdp was going to be devastatingly weak, obviously, in the second quarter. So youve seen the rebound in data. That said, in july it does look as if weve seen a soft patch particularly for the consumer. Why . Bell, you have this resurgence in covid cases, and as a result some states have closed back down or are slowing down the reopening. So theres new data that bls is now publishing, t called the Household Employment report where its actually a weekly tally of household limit. Just like the employment. And it was pretty weak in the month of july. Its actually down about 5 million. Now, that data are a little volatile, its a new data set, but after two months of really strong gains in employment, we probably are going to get a pause in the month of july for payroll employment. Were using something around zero, there are still signs that employment is okay. But looks like were going to have a little bit of a step back in employment in july. Maria so what are you expecting then for the second half of the year . Do you think that those good reports in may and june resurface again, that we see a little bit of a bounceback . Give me your assessment of the forty quarter and year Fourth Quarter and then year end. In july even though the consumer has taken a step back and the paw roll employment could basically stall out, other parts of the economy are actually still humming. Housing and Manufacturing Activity and technology are still in a v rebound. And so you have got an economy a little uneven in july, again, that pullback in the consumer, but still the strength that we saw in the market pmi, market pmi for july, the nahb index for july. So you have to have a lot of positive momentum for the Third Quarter where we think gdp will increase 20 or more at a quartertoquarter annual rate. And i do think theres upside e to our estimate of 20 . The consumer might have faded in july, but you had so much momentum from that may and june period. And then again you till have these still have these unfolding sharp rebounds in housing activity and also Manufacturing Activity. So even though they were down, Capital Spending and how they were all down in the second quarter, youre going to get strong rebounds into the Third Quarter. By the Fourth Quarter we have things slowing down a little bit more, 5 . In that we are anticipating potentially a shift down to some more normal growth trajectories. But again, 5 is still a very healthy number x. For 2021 i think 4 for 2021. Theres so much stimulus in the economy, and the way we count it, a combination of monitoring fiscal stimulus right now in the United States is about 44 of gdp. And my colleague andy is expecting another fiscal package from washington over the next week, over the next week or so. Thats going to approach 50 cumulatively. Well have had 50 stimulus to u. S. Economic activity. And so this is the beginning of a sustained expansion supported by, one, obviously, the monetary fiscal stimulus weve seen; two, what the fed has done and as rick was highlighting, youve seen a plunge in Corporate Bond yields, a plunge in Mortgage Rates whichll further tim late Capital Spending and housing. Maria when we come back, i want to get your take on longer term, beyond 2020 and 2021 and how technology is changing the makeup of the economy. Were talking with nancy e lazar, and well be right back with more of a longterm look at usaa is made for whats next were helping members catch up by spreading any missed usaa insurance payments over the next twelve months so they can keep more cash in your pockets for when it matters most find out more at usaa. Com in a highly capable lexus suv at the golden opportunity sales event. Lease the 2020 nx 300 for 339 a month for 36 months. Experience amazing at your lexus dealer. Instead of using aloe, or baby wipes, or powders. Try the cooling, soothing relief of preparation h. Because your derriere deserves expert care. Try new soothing relief. But what if you could stdo better than that . K. Like adapt. Discover. Deliver. In new ways. To new customers. What if you could come back stronger . Faster. Better. At comcast business, we want to help you not just bounce back. But bounce forward. Thats why were helping you stay ahead and adapt with a network you can count on, 24 7 support and Flexible Solutions that work wherever you are. Call or go online today. Introducing the new sleep number 360 smart bed. Now temperature balancing, so you can sleep better together. Can it help keep me asleep . Absolutely, it intelligently senses your movements and automatically adjusts to keep you both effortlessly comfortable. Can it help with snoring . Ive never heard snoring. Exactly. No problem. And done. Will it help me keep up with mom . Youve got this. So you can really promise better sleep . Not promise. Prove. And now, no interest until january 2023 on all smart beds. Only for a limited time. Maria welcome back. We are back with Cornerstone Macros cofounder nancy lazar. Nancy, we had really crushing numbers this week from big tech. It seems, as rick reider told us earlier in the show, big tech is actually benefiting in this shutdown. The Digital Economy further penetrates in our lives. Give us your take on technologys role in the growth story of the u. S. Economy economy and how that might change things longer term. Technology is so key to improving productivity. So rick was using some examples of saying ups or incorporating technology into their business. That makes their Profit Margins bigger. You can think of ups as kind of a dinosaur company, its been around a long time, but so Many Companies are incorporating more and more technology from transportation to manufacturers, obviously, to retailers, to finance. Right now technology and r d are about 47 of total u. S. Capital spending. And it has the single biggest impact of productivity. And productivity is kind of a boring term but, or boy, that is really what improves the quality of living for an economy in that it improves profitability and, importantly, it creates jobs. So we think this Technology Revolution thats going on that is not really connected to the economy, its obviously driving the stock market as we saw yesterday. Its also driving Economic Activity in that it is improving, it is improving profitability, and thats how you create jobs x. Thats why what we see for 2021 is this onhering theme coupled with our onshoring theme coupled with our Technology Creating this economy that i think currently appreciated. Boosting corporate profitability and, therefore, boosting the job market. Maria well, you make a good point about onshoring, because it seems like because of this shutdown, the Services Area of our economy has been shot. I mean, you dont have services with the foot traffic that we had just sick months ago, so thats e a problem for economic growth. Were going to need that Manufacturing Sector to get fired up. That doesnt happen overnight but, of course, thats the trump administrations priority, to bring some of those ooh supply chains back to america. Is that also playing into it . Is that what youre referring to . Oh, absolutely. Weve counted over a hundred companies that have announced either plans or moving back to the United States just since the beginning of the year, a hundred companies. The kodak announcement as far as also remaking themselves and producing more in the United States. This is the opportunity of the iceberg, and i love what you said, it does take time, but thats e what makes this technological innovation and onshoring theme so supportive of growth. You and i both remember the dot. Com bubble. It was something that could happen very, very quickly. I love something that takes time. It prevents it it from being a bubble quickly and, therefore, it can be a support for Economic Activity. Capital spending is the Ugly Duckling of economic data, and i dont just mean bringing plants back here. Again, all sorts of companies are reinvesting in their businesses, trying to improve their productivity. Its the Ugly Duckling because it creates a beautiful thing. Out creates jobs. Maria so in terms of the sector s that you think will lead are us in the coming years, obviously, technology is there. Any other sectors that are going to be the growth leadership . Housing is, has already seen a very sharp v rebound with Mortgage Rates as low as they are today. Thats going to continue to support it. In addition to the consumer went into this crisis with a very healthy Balance Sheet. They werent leveredded like they were the prior cycle, and theres a ton of pentup demand with these millenials now shifting into actually buying homes. Housing is another key part of the economy thats going to drive growth. We even like old economy Capital Spending. The construction sector is obviously going to be a part of this strength in cumulative Capital Spending. Maria nancy, its great to talk with you this weekend. Thanks so much. Thank you very much. Maria dont go anywhere, more wall street right after this. Tada did you know Liberty Mutual customizes your Car Insurance so you only pay for what you need . Given my unique lifestyle, thatd be perfect let me grab a pen and some paper. Know what . Im gonna switch now. Just need my desk. My chair. And my phone. Only pay for what you need. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Maria thatll do it for us this weekend. Thank you so much for joining me. We have a great show next weekend. Be sure to tune into fox business every friday night at 9 p. M. Eastern for another edition of wall street. We will dive into the july jobs numbers, find out if nancy was right on the money in terms of her expectations that we will see Downside Risk to the july payrolls. Join me next friday at this time to talk about it. Plus this weekend over on fox news, sunday morning futures on the fox news channel, my special guest secretary of state mike pompeo. Along with wisconsin senator ron johnson and georgia congressman doug collins. 10 a. M. Eastern live on sunday morning on fox news channel. Start smart every weekday on fox business, weekdays 69 a. M. Eastern for mornings with maria start your day with us every weekday. Thank you so much for joining lou radicals left persecution of Michael Flynn has taken yet another extraordinary and unprecedented twist. The full Dc Appellate Court today announced that they will reexamining the justice departments decision to drop prosecution of general flynn. The activist clintonappointed judge who has seen case for over 2 years and the asked to take unprecedented action reviewing the whole case. Judge