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Protests allegations that africanamericans are i routinely treated brutally by the police is full of exaggeration. There are, of course, bad cops, and theres no doubt that Police Training tactics and behavior can be improved and should be. Whats more, few would disagree that the conditions of africanamericans in this country remains a deep problem. Inequality in income, welfare and opportunity remain significant. But the people organizing these protests want much more than simply to address that. They know, for example, that democrats have controlled almost all the major cities in this country where these inequalities are at their worst, and theyve done nothing about it for years. What these demonstrators want, in fact, is nothing less than a reordering of American Life and society. Black lives matter and their supporters in the Democratic Party want to abolish or dramatically scale back police forces. They also want to rewrite american history, emphasizing instead of the universal values of freedom and opportunity that the countrys imparticipatedded to the rest of the world imparts, the idea that its been about repression, colonialism and imperialism. We saw this week, for example, the toppling of chews of christopher columbus, no clearer statement that this movement a is about much more. It is, in fact, about abolishing the past, starting again and all the villains, supposed villains of the past, all this places this years president ial election in a really dramatic new light. Its likely to be a contest between those who believe the country is fundamentally a good, virtuous one, always in need of reform, of course, but those and those on the other side who think its irredeemable. They want to start again with an america near zero. Its truly a pivotal moment. Meanwhile, the issues many of us thought would dominate the election, the coronavirus and the economy, continue to ramble along on uncertain paths. While much of the u. S. Has now reopened and activity picking up strongly, the outlook remains unclear. Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin told a senate panel he believes more federal help is necessary. He said congress will have to add a to the 3 trillion the governments already spent on coronavirus stimulus. I definitely think we are going to need another Bipartisan Legislation to put more money into the economy. Gerry wall street continues to focus on the coronavirus with stocks sinking this week on concerns about rising cases and a possible second wave while pushing higher when indications were that the economy could bounce back from the long lockdown. So where is, in fact, the u. S. Economy heading . And what more needs to be done . Joining me now to discuss all this and much more is kevin hassett, second call of duty at the white house. Kevin, thank you very much for joining us. Kevin, a week ago we were all sell bright. We had very good employment celebrating. The economy seemed to to be rebounding, but this week the worry seems to be back. The chairman of the Federal Reserve on wednesday signaled that he thought the economy was going to remain weak for some time with unemployment very high at the end of this year, into next year. Markets reacted negatively to that. Where are we . Are we seeing a quick recovery, a slow recovery or maybe no recovery at all . Well, definitely were in a recovery mode. Ievery realtime item that i look at in terms of credit card spending, the percentages of businesses that are open, even like the employment report from last week, everything shows that the recovery has begun, that weve troughed and that i think that the debate amongst economists is going to be how fast it and where do we end up when the really fast part is done. And i think that we just had, honest to goodness, i thought the Unemployment Rate was going to be about 20 , it came in at 13. I thought we might lose as many as 8 or 9 million jobs, in fact, we gained 2. 5 million on the payroll side. Were at this moment that nobodys ever seen. Weve had the biggest negative shock and then the biggest positive stimulus ever, and theres no economic model thats ever been useful for something thats got to model things that are 20 standard deviations away from anything weve seen. The one thing ive got to say though is within the white house, within the oval office when weve been talking to president about the bad numbers that are about to come out and so on, the one person who was sort of right about the jobs report was President Trump. You know, no, you guys, kevin, youre being too negative. It turned out to be right. I think we need to be humble gerry the fed thinks unemployment will still be at 9 . We started the year at 35 p fed thinks were 3. 5 . The fed thinks were going to finish at 9. Do you think thats right . No, i dont. If were at 13 right now, and june has got to be better than may a because the economy is ramping up so rapidly in so many places around the country. We absolutely are going to have to be below that by the end of the year. So whats going to happen is youre going to see Second Quarter gdp still around 30 or 40 at an annual rate, and then youre going to see Third Quarter thats maybe going to be a number thats positive that much. And then after that, you know, because when you go up after a big decline, right, equal and opposite doesnt apply. You need a bigger increase from a smaller number. The question is where do we end up at the end of the year, and i think what our policies have done, the idea of our policies has been to keep workers at businesses, to give people a bridge to the other side. And its clear that that worked. In fact, i would have to say that if there were a democrat in the white house right now and if somebody had pulled off a jobs report like we saw last friday, everybody would be calling the Economic Policy of the last few months the most successful policy experiment in history. Were not seeing that, but i believe thats what the history books will say. Gerry i agree with you. When, again, when do you think the economys going to be back onto the track, back to the kind of normal that we had before this virus struck in march . You know, there are pockets we get realtime credit card data, and there are pockets in the country where right now, right now as we speak that the credit card spending is above where it was last year at this time. And so there are places that are getting going again. And then there are places that are not. And really if you try to explain, well, like why are the places not getting going, its not necessarily covidrelated. You know, a really striking example, for example, is vermont is one of the most closed states in the country, and vermont has the fewest cases per 100,000 people of any state. You could ask yours why is vermont closed . Its clearly a political answer, a place thats going to vote for social isist Bernie Sanders is happy to shut down its economy, and the businesses are suffering. That theme is something you see across the map. There are a lot of i blue states that are closed, red states are open, the red statements, some of them are above where they were a year ago, and as we move forward, will the blue states start to turn on to . If they dont, then there is a a limit to how far we can get the economy going. Gerry do you think we all slightly overreacted . New york city is still basically shut down. Most of these big, a lot of these big states shut down. Do you think we overreacted . You know, i think that each governor and each mayor has to make an assessment of whats going on on the ground there. If you look at new york city, for example, theres a really interesting study at the bureau of Economic Research that shows quite tragically that the disease was spreading in the subways, and so exactly what you do in new york city if you cant ride the subway, im not so sure. I wouldnt want to criticize any one person, but what i can say is that the places that are opening up now for the most part are doing so safely because theyre adhering to the guidelines that the white house put out. And so there isnt a connection, so there are some hot spots right now, arizona, South Carolina come to mind, and we can talk about why theyre the ones that really stick out in the data right now, but the places that are seeing cases increase are not necessarily the places where Economic Activity is advancing the most rapidly. So there are some outbreaks, but we can control them. Gerry weve got to take a quick break, and as you mentioned places like arizona and texas possibly seeing a quick spike, that may not be, that may not continue. Kevin, stay with us, coming right up i want to talk about whether we need, whether the economy needs more stimulus. Stay with us. [shouting] [clapping and shouting] [cymbals clanging] [knocking] room for seven. And much, much more. 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Thats good news, isnt it . You know, i think that there were some interpretations of what chairman powell said that were negative because it suggested a negative outlook. I think that as an economist, you know, i think that probably the risk right now to the outlook from Central Banks all around the world would be they get too optimistic too soon. And so i think that what chairman powells trying to do reassure markets that they understand that this is the biggest negative shock that weve seen in the postwar history of the global economy, and that theyve got a lot of work to do as we do here at the white house as well. Gerry do you think its youve seen many economies over the years, do you think its really a good thing for the central bank to commit to basically free money for the next two years at least . I think that Forward Guidance is one of the tools in the tool kit for the central bank, and i wouldnt want to criticize chairman powell. But i think, you know, the truth is that were going to have a really, really strong second half and that, you know, if you look at private sector forecasts or government forecasts, everybodys looking for next year to be one of the best years on record since world war ii. And so i think that the idea that theyre going to be at zero for a good long time is true, certainly i would expect that through the end of the year, and i bet if next year stronger than expected, he would change that story. But right now understanding theyre 100 committed to recovery, its a good thing for him to signal that. Gerry democrats have passed another stimulus bill through the house, republicans and the white house have opposed it so far. Do you think we need, the economy needs another stimulus right now . Yeah, i think that absolutely 100 there will be another stimulus bill of some sort. The question is what shape will it take. You know, there are things that the white house believes very, very strongly really need to happen in order to make sure that we not only get back to operating, but take off. We have a liftoff. And one of those, for example, would be Liability Protection so that if i have a restaurant and somebody feels like they might have got covid at my restaurant, that they cant sue me and bankrupt me. There are a lot of things we think need to happen, but we also believe the situation on the ground is evolving so rapidly that it would be foolhardy to have another stimulus especially the size of the house bill precisely now. So imagine whatever you thought we might need in terms of stimulus when you thought that the jobs number was going to be 10 million probably changed when you saw it was 2. 5 million. We need to collect data, assess the situation on the ground and have a targeted bill. But we will definitely support some bill, and thats what secretary mnuchin said on your clip. Gerry want to put a number on what you think may be right . Maybe a trillion . Trillion is a number that Mitch Mcconnell stated, and President Trump hasnt yet picked a number, and i think in part because hes very datadriven guy, and he wants to see what the numbers say we need come july. Bealso need to look and see what happened with the money that we spent. What have they been doing with that money . Were studying that so when we come to july, we have knowledge about what the situation on the ground looks like, and we can design policies that are targeted. So as an example, the travel industry is certainly not going to be booming in july. The state economy thats really doing the worst right now is hawaii where there are barely any cases, but nobody can travel to hawaii. Its basically a travelbased economy. And i think the president has stated in that he thinks were going to have to have some targeted help for travel and leisure industry because thats the hard hit, and its going to be the slowest to come back. Other pockets like that might emerge in july that we see that might require some targeted policies, and were studying it. Gerry lets take one more quick break, and then i want to talk more about what else the administration might be thinking of doing to aid the economy. Stay with us. Stay with us. Were here for a reason. And its bigger than selling cars. Were here to build for the people who build and shape this country. Who work hard. Who do right by others. Who never give in. Theres always some new challenge trying to take us out. To shake our resolve. And if youre out there fighting through it, we know 260,000 people who have your back. I come face to face with a lot of behinds. So i know theres a big need for gasx maximum strength. It works fast. Relieving pressure, bloating, and discomfort before you know it. So no one needs to know youve got gas. Gasx so no one needs to know youve got gas. You say that customers maklets talk data. S. Only Xfinity Mobile lets you switch up your wireless data whenever. I accept 5g everybodys talking about it. How do i get it . Everyone gets 5g with our new data options at no extra cost. Thats good. Next item corner offices for everyone. Just have to make more corners in this building. Chad . Your wireless your rules. Only with Xfinity Mobile. Now thats simple easy awesome. Switch and save up to 400 a year on your wireless bill. Plus get 200 off a new Samsung Galaxy s20 ultra. Gerry im back with white house senior economic adviser kevin hassett. One of the features of the first big stimulus are were directed to households. 1200 check with the president s name sent to justin about everybody in the country. Just about everybody in the country. That in the cards again . Certainly, all options are on the table, and as i said when we see a what the situation on the ground looks like in july, then the president will make the judgment of what he supports. I think hes already stated that he likes a payroll tax holiday on the individual side. I think that there is an argument for doing it that way a because you both give people money so their paychecks are larger, but also lower their marginal tax rate to you give them an incentive to get back to work and to work more if theyre at work. I think supply siders would probably favor a payroll tack cut over just a check, but the check is not going to be a major discouragement for getting back to work unlike the Unemployment Insurance benefit which is an extra of 00 a week 600 a week and a bigger share than 50 percent of americans make more not working right now because of that. That is a big work disincentive, and its something were looking at closely. Gerry some people are talking about the possibility of a back to work incentive, actually quite the opposite. Instead of paying people to stay home, paying people to get back to work. Is that something that might be in the package . Its something were studying carefully. When somebody goes back to work, they might have a lot of costs associated with that. Theyve got to, you know, find childcare and so on. And if were, say, on the hook to pay Unemployment Insurance benefits for another 20 weeks, if you give someone an incentive to get back to work sooner, you could actually save the tack payers money and help the taxpayers money and help person get back to work. Gerry the democrats want to help the states, you talked about the travel industry, other sectors that have been particularly challenged. What other particularly targeted measures could we see . Well, i think in terms of targeted measures, the other big picture thing that the president s already talked about is we really do need to think about the security aspect of reshoring our supply chains. Is so right now were extremely dependent on pharmaceuticals from china, for example, and i think the president thinks that we need to consider policies that would help encourage firms to move more of their supply chain back home. Gerry and finally, just a final quick question, you mentioned china. Obviously, weve been having, the administrations imposed tariffs on china. How is the world economy, do you think, going to deal with the new environment that we have, much more emphasis on domestic supply chains . How much of an effect is that going to have an global . Right. Well, i think one thing that were seeing is that a lot of countries are concerned about the thing that we just mentioned and are taking steps to reshore their activity. I think that probably whats going to happen is that itll increase Global Growth because people will be making lots of domestic investment, but itll be bad for china. And i think that dont forget there were a lot of fixed costs. The chinese economy has developed rapidly, and, you know, a factory that you moved there 15 years ago might not actually be Cost Effective now because wages have gone up so much in china. So i think that the reshoring probably something that naturally would have happened anyway, but its going to accelerate. And in terms of canadian gdp, u. S. U. S. Gkp, european, its probably going to be a necessary positive over the next five years. Gerry kevin hassett, thank you so much. Stay well and have a great week. Straight ahead, americas at a very dangerous moment in its history, and ill explain at Fisher Investments, we do things differently and other Money Managers dont understand why. Because our way works great for us but not for your clients. Thats why were a fiduciary, obligated to put clients first. So, what do you provide . Cookie cutter portfolios . Nope. We tailor portfolios to our clients needs. But you do sell investments that earn you high commissions, right . We dont have those. So, whats in it for you . Our fees are structured so we do better when our clients do better. At Fisher Investments were clearly different. Gerry this week we got a strong taste of a chilling feature of modern American Life. As protests continue to engulf much of the country, politicians and some police chiefs, celebrities, corporate chief executives, leading athletes and other public figures all rushed to publicly express their loyalty to the black lives matter movement. Taking a knee, posting solemn pledges on social media, even literally begging for forgiveness for their apparent white privilege. If you chose not to give your fullthroated support to this campaign, bad things happened. You were denounced, dehe create hissed. Drew brees was shamed and forced to apologize for saying he wouldnt disrespect the american flag. Several newspaper and magazine editors lost their jobs for the crime of not aligning themselves completely with the prevailing orthodoxy. A professor in california was suspended because he refused to cancel final exam for students whod asked him to. This crushing of dissent or alternative ideas went even further. Home box Office Actually removed the film gone with the wind from its streams service. Tv streaming service. There was even a campaign, believe it or not, to ban paw patrol, a kids cartoon series about pets that help solve crime. We cant possibly let our childrens minds be poisoned by the idea that there are any decent, cuddly police out there. Were in the grip of a modern tyranny right now in this country that recalls nothing so much as mao she e tongues cultural revolution in china. Just as then, students are being asked to denounce chair teach, children, their parentings. This is a truly dangerous moment, and it requires courage. People who are uneasy at this attorney of events are afraid. If they dont stand up, the purge will go on, and the harder it will become to stop it. Thats it for us this week. Be sure to follow me on twitter, facebook and instagram, and ill be back next week with more indepth interviews right here on the wall street journal at large. Thank you very much for joining us. Jack welcome to barrons roundtable where we get behind the headlines and prepare you for the week ahead. Im jack otter. We begin with what we think are the three most important thing investors should be thinking about right now. Stocks stumbled on reports of a rise in covid19 hospitalizations. Whats changed, what hasnt and what to expect next. Its been a tough year so far for dividend investors as struggling Companies Cut or eliminate payouts. Which companies can still deliver. And the state of housing, whats changed for buyers and sellers since the pandemic began. On the

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