Instructed to maintain social distancing even as we gather to have some fun in the sun. One place where bathers are not welcome is new york city where mayor bill de blasio has threatened to pull people out of the water if they violate his no swimming rules. Just look at that. The new York Metro Area remains mostly in lockdown. Doesnt expect easing in the city apparently until the first half of june. Meanwhile, more and more pushback against the closures as the economic carnage mounts around the country. Some Business Owners fearful that their livelihoods are being destroyed are openly defying orders saying theyll risk fines and imprisonment rather than keep their stores shuttered any longer. And we now have Important Information from a number of states that have had several weeks of experience with loosened restrictions, and it does seem to suggest their plans are working. So were the draconian lockdowns actually even necessary . More on that in a moment. Also this week though we got encouraging news about a possible vaccine for the virus. Very preliminary results of a treatment by moderna showed those tested produced antibodies that may fend off the business, the ceo toll fox business mornings with maria if everything goes right, the vaccine might be ready fairly soon. It is possible assuming a best case scenario, and there are many risks that could derail us maria right. But toward the end of the year or early next year. Gerry thats, obviously, really good news, but it is still somewhere away, and efforts are being stepped up to further accelerate the process. The government is paying more than a billion dollars to astrazeneca in order to secure supplies of a vaccine that its working on. Later in the show ill be speaking with an Infectious Disease specialist about how soon we can realistically expect to have a vaccine. But well begin with someone who believes we may actually be okay even if we dont have a vaccine or treatments anytime soon. An oncologist who was chief of the Cancer Program of the World Health Organization is currently dean of the university of buckinghams medical school in the united kingdom. Doctor, thank you very much for joining us. Weve seen some evidence now, weve had the lockdowns have been relaxed in many states here in the United States, in many countries in europe as well. Were seeing, weve had a few weeks of that. Despite the fears of those who said it was too soon, that this virus would just immediately come back and wed all be forced into lockdown again, we havent seen a significant resurgence. Actually, it seems to be going quite well. Does that tell us anything important about the likely progress of this virus as we look forward . Absolutely. And its tremendous news for us all. Austria, czech republic, norway, denmark, the four first countries to come out of lockdown, now are the first on the 14th of thats the tuesday after easter holidays, and theres been no second surge, no increase in infection. Which is just tremendous news. And theres no doubt that people are getting together, the cafes and bars are beginning to open, the schools went back four weeks ago in austria primary schools, albeit, and nursery schools, but its really good news for us all. We can get out of this. Now, the vaccine, you heard there are competing vaccines out there. You heard from stephane its probably next year, and thats what it really is with other competitors, the astrazeneca collaboration. So im just hoping we can get out of this long before we need to vaccinate. Its not just getting the vaccine, youve got to get it to the people, logistics gerry is it even possible as we have seen with some flu viruses and ore viruses in the past that this thing could just actually burn itself out, as it were . It could just go away . Could you explain why that would be . So its like there are two partners, the host, thats us, and the parasite, thats the virus. Were dancing around each other. And its like an evolutionary dance. Weve gone into social distancing, weve got lockdown, people are petrified out there, theyre trying to avoid everybody else. So thats how weve behaved. The virus also seems to be changing its way of working. It seems to be weakening. If you look at all the curves, the infection rates going down, the hospitalizations righting down here in the u. K. , and the deaths are going down quite precipitously. And its as though the virus is adapting to us and wanting to sort of live with us for a long time. Like the sars virus has and like the mers virus. These coronaviruses have an evolutionary law of their own, so its a very interesting biological question as to whats really happening to this virus. Gerry weve also seen, it should be said is, most famously with the great influenza of 1918 that after the first wave of the virus, it did go away, and people thought they were spared, and then the second wave came back late in 1918, and it was actually more lethal than the first. Do we have any confidence here as to what may be going on . Im just an oncologist. I listen to these epidemiologists, and you get ten of them in a room, and you get ten different answers from the same data. Gerry yeah. [laughter] exactly. As in the financial sector. So what weve got to do is prepare for the worst, and lets assume, lets get Critical Care beds in the corridors ready, have a plan for it all, but lets hope for the best that its not going to happen. And so far, if we we take the oldest countries to go through it, the first countries to go through south korea, china it looks okay. Everyone is nervous, but it look okay. Okay . There were pockets, a guy goes clubbing on a saturday night in seoul in korea and causes about 40 cases because he was exuding the virus. Thats a oneoff, and you can sort that out by Contact Tracing and testing and identifying the contacts. So lets just hope that was a oneoff. It looks to be the case that theres not systematic second surge on the way at the moment. Gerry doctor, we were told initially that the whole point of these lockdowns was to flatten the curve. The real risk was that we would see a huge surge of cases, our Health Systems in the United States and in the u. K. Would be overwhelmed, so we had to reduce the Immediate Impact on the Health Systems. And once wed done that, the virus would play itself out. Now that seems they seem to have changed the goalpost a little bit, some people are talking about using these lockdowns to kill the virus completely. Does that make sense . Swedens nebraska had lockdown never had lockdown. Was it really necessary . Well know that by the end of the year. Take all the data thats been collected, the day of infection rate and, obviously, severity of lockdown. Here its been a very british affair, very gentle, not really legally imposed. Sort of a few people get arrested for sunbathing and thats about it. In latin America Military police states, you get if you leave your house, someone comes and gets unpleasant with you. Thats not been the case here. So all these comparisons will come out, but we need time to do them. Gerry weve got to take a quick break. See the prospect of people being arrested for sup bathing here in the United States this weekend. But when we come back, i want to talk to you further about whether the lockdowns have really been necessary, whether in some regards of health care they may actually be making things worse. Stay with us. The new house is amazing. So much character. Original crown molding, walk in closets. We do have a ratt problem. Round and round with love well find a way, just give it time. At least geico makes bundling our home and Car Insurance easy. It does help us save. Round and round with love well find a way, just give it time. Round and round what comes around, goes around. For bundling made easy, go to geico. Com there are times when our need to connect really matters. To keep customers and employees in the know. To keep business moving. Comcast business is prepared for times like these. Powered by the nations largest gigspeed network. To help give you the speed, reliability, and security you need. Tools to manage your business from any device, anywhere. And a team of experts here for you 24 7. Weve always believed in the power of working together. Thats why, when every connection counts. You can count on us. Gerry my guest is dr. Sikora. Doctor, you are a cancer superbist. One of the return specialist. One of the concerns i think a lot of people have about these lockdowns is weve already seen a significant drop in the number of people going to hospitals, going to doctors to be treated for diseases for conditions other than coronavirus. Theres been a huge drop in visits. Weve seen it in the United States and in the u. K. Too. How much risk is there that people are being so scared away that actually we may be making some of the medical conditions, the underlying medical conditions, we may be making the situation worse for them . So is as an oncologist, ive been really upset, and the reason ive got into understanding corona and being vocal about it is weve now got to make the shift away from corona which weve dealt with as a surge, into other diseases. And cancer is, perhaps, the biggest challenge now. In the month of april in the u. K. , wed expect 30,000 new cancer patients. If you hook at the biopsies all around the country that are referred to our registration system, there were less than 5,000. So its not that 25,000 people havent got cancer, its not that cancers taken easter off. Its simply theyve not been diagnosed. And well see what we call upward stage migration, stage i cancer will become stage iii. The longer it goes on, the worse the mortallingty and the suffering that were going to see from cancer. So weve got to move. Every Health Care System is being challenged, obviously. Different systems react in different ways. Having spent two years in the states, that has more capacity. You have much more capacity in health care than we do in the u. K. Because of the health service. Thats the nature of the business here. So we suffer unduly unless we can really make an effort to get rolling. Gerry sos it is not just, obviously, conditions like cancer, theres also the concern about the impact on mental health, obviously, the huge economic damage that weve seen, millions and millions of jobs lost here and around the world. We know from history that has significant impacts on peoples health. Is there a risk here that the cure may actually be worse than the disease . Absolutely. Lockdown is not without its fault from a psychological and psychiatric viewpoint. Unemployment will go up, selfesteem is absolutely vital to get out of this crisis. You know, people on lowpaid jobs, the hospitallingty industry, for example, all the staff there relatively low paid. Even the managers are relatively low pay. And many of them are going to be out of a job for some time unless we can kick start the whole thing and get back. Well never get back to where we were with travel and hotels and holidays quickly. Itll take a year or two. But we can get a semblance of normality. Its great to see the airlines all around the world, even in india i read today, beginning to start moving again. Weve is just got to get systems in place to allow people to do what they normally do safely. Gerry good. Thank you very much, indeed, dr. Sikora, thank you very much, indeed, for joining us. Just ahead, what are the chances well are have a vaccine by the end of the year . Well discuss that next. Its best we stay apart for a bit, but youre not alone. Were automatically refunding our customers a portion of their personal auto premiums. Learn more at libertymutual. Com covid19. [ piano playing ] why accept it frompt an incompyour allergy pills . E else. Flonase sensimist. Nothing stronger. Nothing gentler. Nothing lasts longer. Flonase sensimist. 24 hour nondrowsy allergy relief gerry whatever effect the lockdowns may be having, a major push is underway to find a vaccine for the coronavirus. On monday we learned that a phase one test by moderna showed real to promise, and the is ceo said the treatment might be ready by the end of this year. President trump said the same thing last friday in discussing operation warp speed noting. I want to see if we can do that very quickly. Were looking to get it by the end of the year, maybe sooner. How realistic is it . Can we find an effective vaccine thats . And what are the risks involved . Here to discuss that as well as treatments for those already infected is is dr. Peter hong, an Infectious Disease specialist at the university of californiasan francisco. Thank you very much, indeed, for joining us. Thanks for having me on. Gerry very promising are results we were told this week, very, sr. Small sample, a handful of people, i think, who developed the antibodies necessary in the way that youd hope from the vaccine. A what is the prospect that we can get this vaccine done very, very quickly . I think the most promising scenario we could have initial batch of vaccines ready by early 2021. But i think some people are also not waiting to, you know, feeling a little bit nervous about that promise. Because they worry that it may not be delivered. Gerry what are the practical considerations then . We have these trials that moderna reported, theyre doing more trials, obviously, now and over the summer. They say these trial may be done by the end of the summer. Why cant we get it even quicker than perhaps right at the end of the year . Because in phase one trials youre really looking at safety. Even though moderna reported on some levels of antibodies, and i think that side report of levels of antibodies made people a little more excited. Usually phase one is safety, then phase two and three, you know, you look at different populations, larger populations of people. I think the population that wasnt look ated at looked at was the vulnerable population that i think everyones worried about for covid19 which is those that are older. So older in the sense of more than 55. Gerry and we may see governments committing a huge amount of money to this. We may see an unusual collaboration, right, among pharmaceutical companies to develop this vaccine. We have to collaborate with big pharma because even though we can be there can be a lot of smart people working in labs to make the vaccine, you have to produce it, and you have to have a pipeline. And depending on the vaccine, you have to have a cold chain to try and transport the vaccine to the people who need it the most. Gerry in the meantime, of course, before we get this vaccine, there are still people getting sick. Thank initiation in smaller thankfully, in smaller numbers. What are the treatments available . Remdesivir seems to have shown some promise, how promising is that . So i think about treatment as the olympics, and theres no real gold medallest right now. The best that we have is silver, and thats remdesivir. I think a lot of people are excited about it. Its the best that we have right now. But the effect is modest. Theres no magic bullet, but part of that effect being modest is that we probably need more than just one treatment for very sick people meaning that we can treat and stun the virus with a virus stun gun, but we need to treat the inflammation as well o. Thats the next that phase in studies. Gerry President Trump became a patient himself this week when he revealed that hed been taking the high driving while intoxicated hydroxychloroquine, the drug that everybodys been talking about. Some people like the president have said it can be effective, some say it doesnt work. How effective is it . So for treatment there have been several studies that show there is no effect of hydroxychloroquine in treatment, in fact, it may have very serious side effects, particularly cardiac abnormalitieses, arrhythmias, increasing this thing the we call qt interval is. But for prophylaxis, we have some data, and thats what the president s taking it for. But we havent really been successful in treating a virus without an antiviral agent. Gerry and finally, professor, just very quickly, are we seeing Real Progress in treatment now compared to when we first saw this virus hit a few months ago . Yeah, so i still think were back to, you know, the business of repurposing old drugs, so teaching old drugs new tricks. It takes too long to make a de novo truck from scratch. Drug from scratch. You see various combinations. A Hong Kong Group has used a triple combination and showed some promise in early disease, so thats one alternative. Again, theyre antiviral, so we feel pretty decent about it. And finally, theres convalescent plasma which im personally excited about. When people recover from covid, we can use their antibodies to treat very sick people. Gerry professor, thank you very much, indeed. Sor bily we didnt have more time, but thank you for all the work youre doingful were all grateful to you. Thank you for joining us. Facts are stubborn things, and ill explain why thats especially true in the media at Fisher Investments, we do things differently and other Money Managers dont understand why. Because our way works great for us but not for your clients. Thats why were a fiduciary, obligated to put clients first. So, what do you provide . Cookie cutter portfolios . Nope. We tailor portfolios to our clients needs. But you do sell investments that earn you high commissions, right . We dont have those. So, whats in it for you . Our fees are structured so we do better when our clients do better. At Fisher Investments were clearly different. And people you can rely on. 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Only preservision areds2 contains the exact nutrient formula recommended by the National Eye Institute to help reduce the risk of moderate to advanced amd progression. Its how i see my life. Because its my vision. Preservision. Gerry for weeks now weve had to listen to a chorus of the usual media crowd telling us that the country needed to stay locked down to crush the coronavirus. No matter how much damage was being done to the economy and no matter the mounting evidence that the spread of the virus seems to have slowed a lot in the last month, the message was clear open up the economy too soon, they said, and watch the body count pile up. Now, of course, governors of republican states who began opening their economieses were derided as sciencedenying partisans. Georgia leads the race to become americas number one death destination, a headline in the Washington Post actually said. Now, while democratic of course, democratic governors kept their economies locked down, and they were heralded as great leaders, shepherding their flocks with wisdom and courage whiling, of course, conducting nightly chats with their relative on cnn. Georgia began lifting its restrictions on april 24th, and the daily average number of virus cases has halved. Average daily deaths dropped from 87 to about a third of that this week. In florida daily deaths peaked april 28th. Since then after the lockdown was lifted in much of the state, the daily average has also declined. Those gop governors werent taking risks with their citizens lives, they weighed carefully the science and the economics, and they decided that the risks of massive damage to the economy now outweighed the risks of further spread of the virus. Of course, the numbers could still change as we open up more, but one thing i think clear already, the real idealogues, the ones following their own agenda and not that of the evidence, are those people who control so much of our media narrative. Well, thats it for us this week. For the latest update, be sure to follow me on bitter, facebook and instagram twitter. Stuart varney will be hosting a virtual town hall with guests dave ramsey, ken coleman and chris hogan next thursday, and youre invited to send video questions to invested in you foxbusiness. Com. Ill be back next week right here on the wall street journal at large. Have a safe, safe, healthy and enjoyable memorial day weekend. Barrons roundtable sponsored by jack welcome to barrons round thame where we get behind the headlines and prepare you for the week ahead. Im jack otter. The three most important things investors should be thinking about right now. The markets are optimistic about development of a covid19 vaccine and efforts to reopen the economy, but there are still risks ahead. Small businesses are responsible for about half of employment in gross domestic product. The outlook for their revival coming out of the crisis, and the latest round of escalated tensions between the u. S. And china. What are the implications for the market . On the virtual