In the food chain supply . My colleagues ben leveson, carlton english and jack howe. So the worst month in the markets since the great depression, april the best month in the market in 33 years. Can you explain the schizophrenia and explain to viewers why the market and the economy can seem to be going in different directions. This is kind of what the market does. Its forwardlooking. So its looking to deterrence and whats happening next. When the market was falling apart in march, nobody was saying, oh, look how great the data was in february that. s kind of whats happening now. In april we got this bad data, but we knew it was coming. And there was some good news this month. The number of coronavirus cases slowed. We have some states that are reopening, even possible treatment that might work meaning that people get sick, they can go and its not going to be as bad as it might have been. And this is all good news that the market was responding to. Hey, ben, i see plenty of good news, i see an awful lot of bad news still coming. Isnt it really all about the fed right now . We had a decade before the pandemic where we we learned when the fed tried to stimulate the economy, it often stimulates the stock market more. This time around its already bought junk bonds, i think it might start going around the country and buying old bicycles from garage sales by the time the summers over, what do you think . I think thats absolutely true. Without the fed doing what its going, you cant get that balance, and youre seeing some of that play out in the stocks that have been leading this market higher. The tech stocks, still amazon and still google, and its still facebook, and its still, and its these fang stocks have really just pushed the market higher, and theyre showing just why as they released earnings. Microsoft is winning everywhere. Facebook and alphabet showed that advertising isnt as bad as we thought. And amazon, its down on friday, but, you know, its because its not because theyre not bringing in a ton of revenue, its just because theyre spending a lot on safety. Theyve been leading the market higher, and thats gotten some people worried that these fang stocks are the only thing thats working, and it is something with we do have to worry about in the future. We want to see more stocks helping to lead this market higher. Jack thats a good point, ben. What indicators will you be looking for to suggest maybe the rest of the economy can catch up . Well, the first thing we have to watch is jobs, and i dont mean the payroll report thats going to come out next week. We want to watch jobless claims. Theyve been getting less bad ever week. Wed like to see that trend continue. The other thing i want to watch is consumer confidence. Its bad right now, but if you look inside the numbers, the outlook isnt too bad at all. So i think you need to see that outlook hold up. If that starts to suffer, maybe the consumer doesnt start spending again, and that can really prolong this down turn. Jon on the other hand, ben, i like hearing you Say Something positive, that the numbers dont look that bad, because viewers will remember that back in january before wed ever heard of covid19, you were warning a little bit about the economy. Carlton, i want you to talk about this weeks barrons cover story which is the outlook for that allimportant consumer in the economy. Exactly. As you know, the Consumer Sector represents about 70 of our gdp, and in march we saw that drop about 75. Remember 7. 5 . Right now we have 30 Million People who have filed for unemployment, and we know that theres always been a savings problem in this country. People have always had trouble, you know, 40 of people have had trouble putting together money in an emergency. We have to wonder how resilient that consumer is going to be. In other downturns we tend to focus on savings more after the financial crisis of 20082009, the savings rate was roughly 8 versus around 3 in the years before. So, you know, theres going to be this lag on how quickly consumers are going to be wanting to spend and shop. Jack sure. So, you know, ben talked about the tech stocks. All you have to do is look at a chart of the tech etf versus xrt which is consumers, retail, and the divergence there is extraordinary. You, however, have spotted a few consumer stocks that would do well. You were positive on chlorox and, sure enough, at the end of this week we saw great earnings from them. What are some other names that we think can hold up in the postcovid19 economy . Yeah. So the real focus for the consumer, i think, is going to be health, wellness and home. So the stocks we think are going to hold up well, healthy balance sheets, walmart, costco, lowes, you know, these companies that, you know, have the products that meet the consumer demand for right now. Jack i want to go to jack real quick. Freezers are selling out because people are stocking up on meat, but this question is will they have any meat to put in those freezers . Yeah, its an important question. We had more than 20 of pork capacity in the United States shut down at one point this past week. When i hear a thing like thatting i think about stocks a distant second. I think about pork chop night fist. The good news is that bank of america says not to expect outages at grocery stores. First of all, the white house has already gotten involved here, they want to keep these plants open. We saw some that had closed reopen. There is good supply in cold storage of meats that at one point would have been headed for restaurants, now those can be diverted to grocery stores. So theres no need for customer to run up there and hoard just in terms of stocks. Meatpackers like tyson or hormel, bank of america still likes tyson but more for longterm effects there. They could see higher selling prices, but they have higher costs for things like cleaning and keeping staff. Jack coming up, how the coronavirus is changing the industry the energy industry. Thats next. So i listen to audible almost any time that i can. Its my own thing that i can do for me. Since i dont have time to read, i mean i might as well listen. If i want to catch up on the news, or history, or learn whats going on in the world, i can download a book and listen to it. I listen to spanish lessons sometimes to and from work. Yea, it makes me want to be better. Audible reintroduced this whole world to me. It changes your perspective. It makes you a different person. See what listening to audible can do for you. Jack the Coronavirus Crisis combined with a price war to send oil prices plummeting. To find out whats ahead, im joined by former bp ceo and author of make, think, imagine if engineering the future of civilization, lord john browne. Thank you so much for joining us, lord browne. I want to talk to you first about this supply demand imbalance that is so massive right now. Obviously; one of the keys to getting that back in the alignment is to restart the economy. But otherwise what is the path toward getting supply and demand in line again . Well, the supply demand imbalance started before the tragedy hit us. There was a lot of strength in production which most of the big producers russia and in particular saudi arabia did not want to continue. And so they decided that they would begin to open the taps up. They prepared for that, and then suddenningly a collapse. So we had a big collapse in demand, 7 million barrels, and inventories are filling up very quickly to maximum level. So we need all these things to happen. We need supply to be are reduced, demand to go up and inventories to come down. Thats a tall order. Itll take a long time for that to happen. Jack obviously, the saudis and the russians want to make money by selling oil, but theres a lot more than that beneath the surface, a lot of geo politics going on. Would you be able to just briefly hit the key points of what those two nations are trying to achieve with us . Well, in sum, it is about the share of the market that they will be able to maintain for the long term. They have more oil in reserves than anybody else, and they want to make sure that they can produce it and market it. And they felt very threatened by everybody else coming in and producing more, not least the United States of becomeing the largest liquid producer in the entire world but also some other places in the world where oil was being found. So they figured out that, obviously, they were the lowest cost producers. They are very low cost, indeed. If they reduced the price, other people would stop production. That isnt always the case, of course. So that was very important. It is an expression of their power. After all, you dont have too many things to talk about. You have oil and gas when you are saudi arabia and the stability of the middle east. And for russia, obviously, a Nuclear Power but also in terms of trade globally, its oil and gas. These things are very important to those two nations. Jack theres another very longterm force thats going to weigh on prices here. Certainly youve got concern growing around the globe, especially in europe, about carbon footprint. As a globe were getting a little more efficient in our use of oil and, of course, the cost of solar and wind is is coming could be to the point where it starts to get competitive with carbon sources. How do you look at that affecting a longterm outlook for energy . Well, a little known fact is this, that over many years the amount of oil you put into a unit of gdp has come down by around 1. 5 a year. So we really have become very efficient, indeed. As we obviously have offset by an expansion of gdp in the world. But when that levels or comes down, then you should expecting Oil Consumption to come down. On top of that, there is this very big challenge of Climate Change and reducing the Carbon Emissions into the atmosphere. So that challenge will be with us, and its oil and gas contribute to that significantly. So i do think that challenge will be with us because people will still remember the impact of our natural phenomenon causing tragedy, covid19. We certainly wont like the impact of Climate Change. I think thats, will be in peoples minds. Jack i really appreciate your insights, lord john browne. Coming up, as the market reacts to the ups and downs of the Coronavirus Crisis, how should longterm investors position themselves for the future . The panel tackles that n n n n n staying connected your way is easier than ever. Youre just a tap away from personalized support on xfinity. Com. Get faster internet speeds with a click. Order xfi pods to your home in a snap. Or change your Xfinity Services with just a touch. All in one place. Youre only seconds away from all of that on xfinity. Com. Faster than a call. Easy as a tap. Now thats simple, easy, awesome. Jack how should longterm investors handle the wild swings in the market . Joining me now, daniel wiener. Thanks so much for joining us. You are a barrons top ranked end dependent adviser, and ive heard one of the fastest bicyclists in brooklyn. I dont know if thats true or not. If thats true or not. Im only faster than a few people. You, actually, are faster than i am. [laughter] jack i want to ask you what youre telling clients. Surely, you have prepared them for the fact that downturns do occur, but give us a sense of when they see their portfolio falling fast in march, what are you saying to them . Well, the first thing we said was, you know, these events like a pandemic are things you cant prepare for, but what we did prepare for was what we call the rainy day. So every one of our clients has money set aside for those rainy days. We said this is the rainy day. Go use some of that cash. Were not going to make huge changes to your portfolio to respond to this, but, in fact, you know, what we saw was that big drop in march, the big rebound coming out of march into april, so, you know, the clients are pretty happy. We also have shown them that bear markets last much shorter periods of time than bull markets, and bull markets go up a lot more than bear markets go down. And so the haas part is, you know, the stock market today is down about 9 for the year. Most years intraday intrayear on average stocks are down about 14 . So if you look at where the stock market is today, okay. Your normal year. Hey, dan, its jack howe. First of all, i hope you and jack otter are not wearing bicycle shorts right now underneath the camera. Lets keep it professional. I keep hearing from analysts that price to earnings ratios for the market are high right now, and that means you can still get decent longterm returns, but theyll be lower. I hear people say 56 annual total returns over the next decade. What do you say about that . Well, i say two things. Number one, p. E. Has never been a good indicator of what stocks are going to generate for you down the road. I mean, even vanguard did a huge study on all the different metrics that you can look at in the market, and p. E. , although it was the best of all the metrics they looked at, it had less than a 50 success rate in predicting returns. The second thing is p. E. Is price over earnings. Or where are people getting their earnings expectations from . Where are they getting their estimates . If you want to estimate 3 Earnings Growth and you want to add on the current 2 dividend yield on the s p, okay, i can give you a 5 return. But, you know, that where theyre getting their earningsings estimate for that p. E. Is beyond me. Jack and, dan, you think you can do better than that 5 with managers that will pick stocks rather than buy the index. Well, were huge believers in active management. I mean, i also understand that on average most managers will underperform their benchmarks. We dont go for the average manager [laughter] were looking for the best of the best, and the managers that we have invested with, a all of us at my company and all of our clients, are the best of the best. And so they do outperform. Pick an area of interest, wea great manager there. Its just that most people look at the averages and they say, oh, i cant do the research necessary to find those great managers. Jack can you name a couple funds you like . Sure. Well, first of all, you all have been doing a lot of writing in barrons recently about dividend stocks. Don kilbright, vanguards growth dividend fund, is an incredible manager. Hes outperformed the index. When you look at his longterm returns over bull and bear markets over a full market sign cycle, hes substantially outperformed, and hes doing it right now. I think, you know, down around with the market right now, but over a couple months, big deal. You will see him outperform over time. Another one, far more aggressive clients weve been investing in a very small Bailey Gifford fund, thats actually up 12 this year. They are invested in a lot of these fang stocks, but they have an incredible longterm record. I can keep going. Weve got a Great Health Care manager. Weve always had a big overweight to health care in our portfolios, and, you know, health cares down, what, 2 . For the year . You mentioned staying in health care, other sectors you like . Well, weve been, actually, its less of a sector and more were very interested in small and mid cap stocks overseas. One of our researchers, liz, did an incredible job for us looking into risk and return in small caps overseas. And what she discovered was, you know, youve got a universe, 4,000 companies in 40 countries. Unlike in the u. S. , the risk return on small caps, overseas small caps is much better than they are over here. 90 of these companies have profits 90 of these companies is have profited. Theyre really to doing quite well, and our managers are doing quite well with them. Jack thank you so much, daniel. I look forward to a year or two from now when those Blue Mountains are back and our returns are fantastic. Stay right there. Technologies advisor. Me too. Me too. And if youre a small business, were with you. Standing by you every step of the way. Bye bye. I used to worry about hair loss. But now im keeping my hair keeps helps it stay right there keeps hair loss away, for a dollar a day thank you, keeps get started for one dollar a day at keeps. Com. Jack so, jack, a couple years ago our company rolled out something called octa which seemed like another password i had to know, it was kind of annoying. Little did i know, it would prove quite useful. Yeah. You techsavvy smarty pants are very well aware of these company. Weve seen Companies Like moth that have done so well microsoft that have done so well, relatively in this pandemic, so i spoke to chiefs of these two companies, okta wants to be the place to access your Workplace Cloud apps. Both of these chiefs say its early days, and the new work from home economy is only accelerating the shift to these kind of cloud tools. Jack i have a feeling we will be relying on this sort of thing more and more. I do want to go get one actionable idea from both carlton and ben. Carlton, im going to start with you. If there is only one brand that every person in my family wears, its probably nike. Absolutely. And nike is the one that im taking a look at this week. It has a strong balance sheet. They figured out online or which is super important right now. And theyve learned lessons from china when it comes to reopening that they can apply to the u. S. And other regions. Yes, we have no sports, but looking at the pentup demand for sports. The views on the nfl draft and the last dance, people are going to be shopping for this brand on the other side of this crisis, i think. Jack theyve done a great job by creating demand. Ben, a very different kind of stock from you. Yeah. I like regeneron. This week its dropped about 9 , its working on some covid19 treatments but a number of other things, and i think it can get that same sort of aload that gilead had. So its looking quite interesting. Jack thanks a lot for. Thats love your insights. To read more, check out this weeks edition at barrons. Com and dont forget to follow us on twitter at barrons online. That is all for us, see you next week on from the fox studios in new york city, this is maria bart rows bart bartiromos wall street. Maria happy weekend, everybody, im maria bartiromo. Thanks for joining me this weekend. Coming up in just a few moments, weve got the president and ceo of the dallas federal reserve, robert kaplan, to talk about the central bank expanding efforts to help businesses and workers during the covid19 crisis and assessing the economy today. Were expecting we are in a recession right now. But first, u. S. Equities had their best month in decades in the month of april. However, the coronavirus pandemic continues to wreak havoc on the broader economy. U. S. U. S