Maybe that the cut in Interest Rates come up. I said today he must make it clear that the next fed move is unambiguous. I think wall street wants it to be a rate cut. All that and so much more on making money. Deputy trade talks with china are underway as we speak. Clearing way for higher level discussions on thursday. This amid disarray between the two sides. U. S. Blacklisting 28 more companies and Companies Finding them in vise grip over the negative hong kong protests. Head of white house trade and manufacturing director, Peter Navarro. Peter, wall street sees, we have so much good will building up. China buying soybeans. Paypal makes a big acquisition. Both sides making nice. This morning or overnight were hit with levy of new tariffs or blacklisting in this case on companies over human rights violations. Does this suggest that human rights and maybe even hong kong will now be a pivotal part of negotiations . Good afternoon, charles. By the way, lets be bullish for the next ten minutes. Charles make us bullish, peter, make us bullish. We do have the opportunity this week to sit down with the chinese side to see if we can come up with a big deal that will address what i have called the seven deadly structural sins. You know what they are. So lets be bullish. With respect to the action taken yesterday by President Trump, that is totally unrelated to the trade negotiations. It was an initiative that came out of the department of commerce led by secretary ross, with the coordination of the state department and it addresses, charles, what the state department is called one of the worst human rights abuses that weve seen in the last century. Basically you have a couple Million People in concentration camps so charles let me jump in here. That is separate matter with the trade negotiations. Charles may be separate with respect to the administration. Certainly the timing is curious. I dont know that china will consider it a sensitive issue considering how sensitive they are to any claims of human rights abuses in their country or hong kong . That is up to the chinese to charles but you guys knew that. You know they will feel this way, peter. Listen, by the way, i dont have a problem with it, i really dont. Sure. Charles i know President Trump believes in maximum pressure. He is not working by anyones playbook. This is confounding the experts. Im cool with that, at least the administration knew this would put more pressure on china. Are you guys okay with this. This action is unrelated to the trade talks. What this administration has done on a number of fronts throughout the course of this administration is to just move things through process. That was done and ready to go this week and it was announced. I think it is an important statement but it is not part of these trade talks. Simple as that. Charles yesterday President Trump said my inclination is to get a big deal. Weve come this far. By saying that though, the way i interpreted it peter, we could get a smaller, mini deal. This is something i know not necessarily what President Trump wants. Feels like he is more receptive to it. Am i reading that right . I think youre reading that wrong. I think the president was clear and has been clear, he wants a big deal. The deal is with the seven structural issues. Remember, charles, the pivotal event in these negotiations was the day we had 150 page agreement based on the seven deadly structures. Charles right. And theyre worth going over briefly. Charles we dont have enough time, peter. So heres the point. Heres the point. These are the kinds of structural issues that the president wants addressed. I think he has been Crystal Clear he wants a big deal. Of course he is willing to listen. That is what the president does but he has been very Crystal Clear that a big deal with the structural issues is very important to the American People. Remember he is standing up for the American People. Charles im with you on that. Were in the same side with respect to that but what were trying to figure out here and were trying to handicap considering the dow was off over 300 point on this anxiety what we might see on friday. Before i let you go is there a chance that the october 15 and december 15th tariffs in the queue could be pushed back next year . Here is my advice, charles. People are trying to make money on the short term movements and imperfect information. The lighthizer rule we work out things behind closed doors. Navarro rule is anything that comes out of press is charles we have you on my friend. Youre not anonymous source. Give me something. Im working with the president sounds like he wants to get there. He is more ready to get there. Of course he wants a deal but not any different from the days back to maralago. He wants a great deal for the American People and he has been look, this is a man of steely resolve on this issue. He is standing up to china. You know, look, investors need to relax for a couple days and see what happens. Charles all right. Rather than get fidget at this to trade around the margins. Charles answer one of my questions they might relax a little bit more, peter. A little bit more. Remember the lighthizer rule we dont in public. Weve done this movie before. Charles is there a chance the terrorist could be pushed out. I think they could be. Well see. Another 72 hours. You answered your own question. Charles thanks, buddy, i will see you soon. Take care. Charles china will not be broadcasting any nba games, including contests played there, after nba commissioner adam silver refused to condemn houston rocket as general manager daryl moreys tweet on hong kong. Take a listen. I understand there are consequences of that exercise of in essence his freedom of speech and you know, we will have to live with those consequences. We are not apologizing for darryl exercising his freedom of expression. Charles everyone is wondering, can the nba find a way out of this mess without hurting their interests in china also while protecting their employees free speech rights beyond americas border. Joining me former nba player al harrington. He also played in china. Thanks for having me. Charles the commissioner seems wishywashy. The initiative reaction he had to remove the tweet. Houston owner had to apologize. As someone played in the United States and China Understanding economics of this, versus our pride as a country, right . We believe in coming to the aid of people who are unoppression. Thats right. Charles how do you feel about this. Im supportive of daryl morey as well. That makes our country special. We have the freedom of speech. I think that in that moment for him he didnt think of the backlash, right. I dont think any of us would. That is not a natural response. He thought he was doing it right for good of people in general and its a real tough situation he is in. Charles its a real tough situation. I saw a video coach kerr, hemming and hawing, he has a strong opinion on politics in this country, thinks like that. The players in the league, theyre in pretty awkward position. They rushed hardin out yesterday to make a statement. It is just, handled in such a hamfisted way. Where do you think ultimately goes because china is not going to bend on this . I think time heals all wounds, right . I think china is very definitely sensitive because of all the stuff going on with trump and stuff like that, what is unique about sports, sports bring people together. Over time i think the Chinese People will realize that the general manager definitely made a mistake. He was speaking that is how we are in america. We speak and let you know how we feel about certain things but over time they will realize we as nba players love the fan base. We know how important the fan base is to our league and obviously their leagues moving forward. I think over time, you know, everybody, it will blow over. Charles i get what youre saying, sports for a long time was aye political, right . It was relief. You could sit inside after sports stadium, could be republican sitting next to a republican or democrat. No one wore their issues all they wore to the game was jerseys of their favorite players but recently lebron james has been critical of not just President Trump but trump voters. We had curry, steph curry has been pretty dismissive. Are these guys pushing the envelope too much . Because that is half the country sometimes that theyre dissing i say to myself. Maybe there is only nba but i think a dangerous act to do. I dont think so. Once again that makes america unique. We condition speak out our political views, you agree or you dont. Just at the end of the day how you feel about certain things and certain people. Charles youre comfortable with athletes, professional athletes talking about things outside of sports . Im not saying just dribble the ball, im saying these are your consumers, these are people come to the game, they would like to enjoy it without the filter if the guy didnt say i was dumb who i think i voted for. I dont think fans look at that. I dont think a trump supporter that comes to see lebron play, he doesnt think about lebron tweeting. He is helping his team to compete to win championships. Charles before i let you go, you said time heals all wounds . They are dragging, cant go on the internet find Houston Rockets anywhere. You cant google that anywhere in china, right . They have really gone hard right away. Kneejerk reaction wipe it all out . They have to continue to apologize. There are definitely concessions they can make towards the Chinese Government, towards their leagues and stuff like that, that they eventually come back to the table. Charles remind the audience. You played a long time in the nba and china. You know better than most. Great to see you, al. Great stuff. Nba controversy shows a tight grip china has over businesses in the United States. Where do Business Owners go from here . Well discuss that. Were following this market, trade tensions are out there. Later fed chair Jerome Powell will take q a from room full of economists who dont think there will be any additional rate cuts. Theyre sure to ask him about this. His answer could mean everything for where we end up, which by the way could be up. 2,000 fence posts. 900 acres. 48 bales. All before lunch, which we caught last saturday. We earn our scars. We wear our work ethic. We work until the works done. And when it is, a few hours of shuteye to rest up for tomorrow, the day well finally get something done. theayou listen toally advyour clients goal ofen. Sending her daughter to the music school of her dreams. And you help her turn it into reality. Principal. We can help you plan for that. Start today at principal. Com. Charles trade tensions once again weighing on the stock market. With the United States blacklisting Chinese Tech Companies ahead of the latest round of trade talks. The imf warned that the Global Economy is quote, in a synchronized slowdown. Joining me, jack ablin. Start with issues one at a time. Just had Peter Navarro on, suggesting that blacklisting of Chinese Tech Companies had nothing to do with trade talks. Will not be stucked into negotiations, nor will hong kong. Timing made wall street uncomfortable this morning. Absolutely. The incation was perhaps the trade talks are not going well if u. S. Negotiators are now piling on, something that we havent seen. We have not seen capital constraints in my recollection of a, you know, of a trading partner. Charles that said how important we get a scenario on friday where either the trade, october 15, december 15th tariffs are pushed back, or there is a mini deal, versus nothing . In other words we may meet again but everything is still on track . What are the different reactions . I mean i think that the market is expecting some kind of a victory, even a minor one will push forward. Keep in mind, trump needs a win. Certainly he is embattled here at home with impeachment hearings. The movie made in Northern Syria didnt set well with fellow republicans. He needs a win. Even a pyric victory with china. We would like to see some incremental progress made there. Charles a few minutes jay powell will face questions from Top Economists in corporate america. They are on record saying no more rate cuts this year. I think well definitely hear whether or not that will happen. He will not be able to be ambiguous about it i dont think today, jack. What does wall street want to hear from jay powell particularly after the ppi number . Ppi was lowest reading weve seen in four years. Certainly not encouraging. Small Business Sentiment is off. Ceo Business Sentiment is down. Market puts 75 chance of a rate cut next month. Anything less than that will be disappointment. Not to say a rate cut is a panacea here but i think that is something at least investors need to munch on. Charles credibility is something that has weighed on this market for sure. Your thoughts, 30 seconds. Earnings coming up. Wall street anticipates a down quarter. They always felt this way. The Second Quarter was a lot better than anticipated. 3. 6 negative yearoveryear. We had something similar to that last quarter. Between the beats and lifts, my guess is we should come in flat. Investors will turn their attention to earnings next week and management outlook. Well see how that goes. Charles jack, thank you very much, always appreciate it. Thank you, charles. Charles controversy surrounding the nba handling of the Houston Rockets gm hong kong tweet, it highlights a tight grip china has over u. S. Businesses, what im calling a faust at deal havg businesses in china. The question is, where do we go from here and how long can businesses look the other way . Well be right back. Announcer fidelity is redefining value with zero account fees for brokerage accounts. And zero minimums to open an account. At fidelity those zeros really add up. Maybe ill win saved by zero charles the nba isnt only American Organization feeling the heat as they try to walk the line between supporting democracy in hong kong but not angering china, at least the government in the process. Is it time for the corporations to look at human rights over profits . Really is it time for them to stand up to a big bad bully of china . Heritage foundation spokesperson. Genevieve wood. Youre one of my favorite guests this is one of my favorite topics. I think large american businesses have sold their soul. You know what . It is coming back to haunt them, what do you think . Youre absolutely right. It is time for america to ask questions of these businesses. The nba is the National BassBasketball Association not international Basketball Association. They seem to worry about defending rights of american Citizens Free speech. He spoke as an american citizen yet theyre not very concerned about his free speech rights. They want to shut those down to the please the chinese. Charles, i dont think i have to tell you how hypocritical this is. You look at the nba, whether players have spoken out on political issues, whether the North Carolina debate over the bathrooms, but the nba and players also talked about concerns about racism. They talked about how they were concerned about socalled muslim ban, that the president put into place. That is not what i think it was, but what they called it. Yeah, you go over to china, one of the regions in china where the nba set up a training center, it is one of the most oppressive regimes against muslims. It is one of those areas where they take the children of muslim parent, put them in orphanages, basically put muslim parents in rethinking camps concentration camps what most of us would call it. A lot of oppression going on there. The nba doesnt seem to care about that or talk about it, because the money covers all that up. Charles where do we go from here . It is not just the nba. Thats right. Charles American Companies make big profits in the country and quote, unquote reinvestment in china and set up major structure. Some seem to be willing to give up intellectual property. They know it is being stolen in order to have access to the market . Charles, im thankful when businesses and the free market goes into very oppressive places like china and starts exposing what the Chinese Government is and start showing the people there what freedom can look like. That can be a good thing, unless youre willing to give up Everything Else just to stay in those places. Unfortunately with the nba and other companies you mentioned, they seem to be willing to give up the good things, that they could be doing in those countries, truly advertising freedom and bringing freedom into those markets. Theyre willing to give that up just to get more money back at home. I think americans, i think were on to it, i think we should hold these companies and these sports franchises, we should hold them accountable. Charles i think we are. This is a new dawn. Genevieve, great having a conversation with you. Thank you, charles. Charles were moments away from Jerome Powells speech amid a mark set selloff that improved a lot. Im talking about the potential after deflationary death spiral before its too late. Well be right back. To the outside world, you look good, but you dont feel good. With polycythemia vera, pv, symptoms can change so slowly over time you might not notice. But new or changing symptoms can mean your pv is changing. Lets change the way we see pv. You track and discuss blood counts with your doctor. But its just as vital to discuss changing symptoms as well. Take notice and take action. Discuss counts and symptoms with your doctor. Visit takeactionpv. Com charles Federal Reserve chairman, jerome, jay powell is about to speak on economy and monetary policy. At the National Association of business economics. Their annual meeting. Well keep a close eye what he has to say especially today after the Producer Price index came in with a number i think higher risk of a deflationary death spiral which would be the worst thank that could happen to our country. Breaking down what we may hear from jay powell today is our very own edward lawrence. Reporter charles, big news coming out of the speech were about to hear from chairman Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve says now is the time to start growing the Balance Sheet organically. The Federal Reserve chairman said the Balance Sheet would happen eventually. Now is the time to start doing that. The reason for that the Federal Reserve chairman says overnight issues with the short term market, keeping federal funds rate in the range of federal funds rate is the issue, when three weeks ago the new york Federal Reserve had to infuse cash into the market. Powell thinks a larger Balance Sheet will help solidify up that market and not have that problem going forward. Now the Federal Reserve chairman says they will act as appropriate to the job growth. Saying job growth as well as strong job market. He says to keep inflation prices stable. Now on inflation, the fed chairman says they are getting close to near the 2 target range but still under the target range. He says he does see the inflation range firming up, the inflation firming up is his words in this economy. He does, doesnt really tip his hand on if he supports another rate cut or not. Some of the fomc members saying inflation there is a reason there should be another rate cut to bring things back in line with the rest of the world. Powell doesnt tip his hand. He makes it clear there are headwinds to the economy. One he specifically mentions here. Talks about a global slow down as big issue for u. S. Economy. Brexit would be second one of that. Trait uncertainty is going forward. Concerned how that will affect the u. S. Economy. He says policies from the Federal Reserve are not on a preset course. He does say that the Federal Reserve will monitor all incoming data coming in and then make decisions based on that data. So again not really an indication if he supports or doesnt support a rate cut but certain things there that would support one if it goes into that direction. Charles . Charles ed lawrence thank you very much. We heard before not only from nabe but the imf. I want to bring this up with jason rotman and courtney dough ming guess, a group im not affiliated with. The dow is down 154. What do you think is causing that, the idea that fed is not on a preset course . They will let the Balance Sheet grow organically, that jay powell saying that is not qe or some other things here . I think what were seeing we have had news come out not necessarily where we want to see it, last week the manufacturing data or ppi numbers, that were definitely softer than people were expecting. Initially got a kneejerk reaction markets being down. They were down 300 points. People saying more likely cutting Interest Rates and boost up the economy, which is a good thing for the stock market. Well see buying pressure for that. Charles i want to remind everyone, well take the q a session, which will be everything, not just for todays session but could influence the market for a long time to come. Jason, the fed will buy securities. Growing the Balance Sheet organically. He is not calling this qe. This is one of the things wall street wants to see, dovetailing what courtney wants to see. At least seems more Interest Rate cuts as well . Yeah. You know it is interesting. On one hand powell is very strongly espousing the idea that the fed should remain independent from politics and, you know, the fed should never, you know, kowtow to the current administration, whatever. At the same time frankly that is exactly what theyre doing. If powell is really put his money where his mouth is there is no Interest Rate cut this month. And, powell doesnt add to the Balance Sheet. So it is interesting that dynamic. Number two, i think market obviously at the end of the day from a stock price standpoint, when the fed is dovish, stock market rallies. That is like abcs, the gravity of the market. The market is happy with what powell is saying. Anytime you get a slightly dovish fed and fed saying the economy is currently strong. That is a recipe for a little buying. Although this could be a deadcat bounce. Charles well find out more in the q a segment, courtney. I think we need to look out for, nabe, National Association for business economists. They represent the largest corporations. 60 of them see no rate cuts. They will put it directly to jay powell. He will have less room to be ambiguous what they will going to do. He uses term data dependent. You talked about the soft data. Curious about the idea that he kept close to 2 inflation when we had deflationary read on Producer Prices . I see the ppi numbers coming out is much more indicative of that. Businesses are nervous to deploy cash right now, because of uncertainty of trade wars. I dont think necessarily something we needs to hone in as much. Maybe trade wars are starting to affect how businesses are forwardlooking. Charles the irony there prices were supposed to go up with trade wars, right . Yeah. Charles protectionism and tariffs are supposed to send prices higher. Some of these key commodities, steel, lumber, whatever have been in their own deflationary death spiral. Jason, you say if the fed would stick without any political influence probably wouldnt cutrate but what about the soft patch were seeing . Like a quarterback, you dont throw where the receiver is, you throw where the receiver is going. In this case, would the fed be preventative, taking actions before it is too late . Well you know, heres the thing. The stock market is just a couple percent from the highest levels that it has ever been. You know the market is at its highest of all time, notwithstanding a trade war. It is really, let me just distill it, charles, this literally right now is a oneonone heavy weight boxes championship between Jerome Powell and donald trump. I feel like Donald Trumps instinct is that he is actually playing powell. If powell cuts 50 basis points, trade war is off. Donald trump is going to strike a deal with china. This is a deeper level what is happening right now. So i think well see 25 basis point cut. Otherwise powell knows that the market would go down 10, 15 over the next six months. I think he will cut for that reason alone. Charles i got to tell you, courtney, no president has been this open and vocal, no other president had twitter either but not just the president. Wall street wants to see this. Wall street has a history of bullying the Federal Reserve. Ask janet yellen. After a decade with no Interest Rates hikes, she raised 25 basis points the market fell completely apart. They sent her a message. Guess what . She got it loud and clear. There is a lot of messages for powell, including fact he doesnt want to see as Federal Reserve chairman see a recession on his watch. I have to agree with that. A couple months ago when they were cutting rates there is really not a lot of reason for them to. The data was not there to support it. They were cutting rates and maybe it was because of the pressure theyre getting but there is some data that could support them to do it. I see that more of a reason they may. Charles courtney, jason, thank you very much. Appreciate it. Were watching markets very closely. Look at this, we made a 75point move since the statement. Wait until the questions. By the way up next well talk about Elizabeth Warren because she is a rocket ship and that is pushing joe biden even further to the left now. He is releasing a new Higher Education plan. I got to tell you what, the former vp says he has done a lot but i dont know if he is ready to completely wipe out student loans. Has he gone left far enough . Well discuss that when we come back. Obvious. Sometimes, they just drop in. Cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. We enable you to reach Global Markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. Cme group how the world advances. Ive been through two tours of duty, and luckily, i came home with my health. But what almost ended up taking me down. Was a stroke. I thought i was invincible. But its really humbling to face an enemy you dont see coming. Fortunately, life line screening showed me i was at risk. Life line screening is the easy and affordable way to make you aware of undetected Health Problems before they hurt you. After all, 4 out of 5 people who have a stroke, their first symptom is a stroke we use Ultrasound Technology to literally look inside your arteries for plaque that builds up as you age and increases your risk for stroke and heart disease. If youre over 40, call to schedule an appointment for for five painless screenings that go beyond annual checkups. And if you call us today, youll only pay 149 an over 50 savings. When i came in, they thanked me for my service. I said thank you for yours. Life line screening. The power of prevention. Call now to learn more. Charles joe biden, the socalled moderate candidate being forced to move even further left as Elizabeth Warren nips at his heels. The two are tied in overal averages on polls. Warren is topping biden in many more of the recent polls. The former frontrunner offering a new plan, Free Community college, technical college, forgiving some federal College Loans to the tune of 750 billion. Join us now as we bring in fox news contributors Leslie Marshall and deroy murdoch. Leslie, moving further and further left. Soon he will be giving everything away. Why doesnt he cut to the chase, listen im down well give it all away for free. He is not going to do that. Charles i dont know. This is not, not like a revelation in politics. Every four years when we have a general election, if republicans are in a field you start saying things that are similar, you see working for somebody, especially starting to kick your butt in the polls and on the left democrats do it as well. It is common for democrats to pull left in a primary and come back to the center in a general election that has been historical. Republicans do the same, go far to the right to appease evangelicals in a prior marry and move back to the center in a general election. Charles deroy, if democrats react way she is saying, they will feel disingenuous because i dont think Elizabeth Warren will govern different than way she is campaigning. If she comes to the center she will still be on the left. Trying to change the context from hunter, burisma, i cant blame him for that. It helps him hang on to support he has got, than slipping away even further. I disagree 100 . Im at table for some of this. I will tell you why. One, whenever he goes after trump for trying to attack him and investigate him and his son, his poll numbers go up and he has checks written. He tripled the amount of money that he had coming into his campaign. Charles more recent numbers he reported were a major disappointment. He was way behind warren and buttigieg. The reason he is doing this. Not to go to the left. It is not a distraction about ukraine and any investigation. It is actually do charles you dont think that surety hadding him at all . You dont think people say why the heck was your son getting 50 grand a month . I think it might hurt him with some voters in a general election. I think that people in the primary, for the most part have made up their minds. If youre and warren voter or bernie voter, more likely to be a Elizabeth Warren voter or joe biden. One more thing, one more thing which is the, the idea of, Elizabeth Warren has been so successful, she has run the best campaign out of the democrat so far, the way she has done it, she has been specific with policies she put forth. That is what i think joe biden is emulating, not distracting. That is the bottom line here. It feels like before you would say, biden means a moderate, warren and sanders means far left. Now it seems like whoever wins this nomination will be a far left candidate, at least on paper, and that is something i think a lot of people are worried about. I think choices will be between the far left and the left. There never was anything moderate about joe biden in comparison to people like warren and sanders. Back to the scandal, one question i have, where is the hunt for hunter biden . Anytime a big scandal with kavanaugh and anthony weiner, see the driveways clogged with cameras and microphones. No one is doing a steakout in front of his house. I have a piece on fox news. Com. Where is the media. Because maybe he is not a nominee for the Supreme Court around he is not running for president. They dont care about him. You, Bernie Madoff was not running for anything. That guy could not leave his apartment without having 50 cameras in his face. Charles check out the piece on foxnews. Com. We appreciate it. Leslie, thank you very much. Appreciate it. Pilot union slapping boeing with a 100 milliondollar lawsuit as the 737 max, continues to hit stags. Well have de snags. Well have details for that right after the break. Charles stocks are paring their losses as we await Jerome Powell to take questions in denver. Liz claman is here with what is coming up in the next hour. Liz, we have pretty good momentum the other way going into your hour. He said it is not qe, meaning quantitative easing, right, charles . But the markets heard that it is quantitative easing, ming stimulative bond buying. Right now the dow was down 338. Now down 67. We will watch every minute in the final hour of trade. Fed chair Jerome Powell has been skeptical of certain developments in the world of cryptocurrency. Guess what . Today weve got the ceo of ripple. Now ripple of course is a network that is superfast, digital networks. It has got its own crypto coin, xrp. Brad garr linkhouse i had a chance to speak with him a few hours ago with the Economic Club of new york, wait until you hear what he says how far ahead china is. China finished prototype of the china coin. You want crypto coin, this could be a problem for the u. S. Dollar at some point. Brad is saying you have to get on this, fed, u. S. Government. Well have that exclusively at the top of the hour. Charles that is a huge get. Thank you, liz. Tune into the claman countdown 3 00 p. M. On fox business. Boeing turned positive, after the wall street journal reporting that friction between the u. S. And european regulators could delay the 737 maxs return to service. Christina part has more. Reporter you had this wall street journal report saying that european officials and regulators. Charles kristina, i have to break in. Im sorry, were going to jay powell in the q a session. Longstanding interest for me to support those agencies. Im curious if you could lend your support to those agencies as well . I would be delighted to. Our work depends, really heavily, pardon me, heavily on getting timely and accurate data. And also on being able to anticipate structure in the economy. It is ever evolving economy. It is not just as simple as counting things. When were trying to assess how strong the market or gdp is that a challenging for policymakers to do a better job for the public. I can hardly say too strongly how we support the activity. Would i like to support my colleagues in the industrial, in the Industrial Production group who work behind the scenes for a century now, and also all of the other terrific economists at the fed. Im sure people appreciate they work very hard to serve the public all the time. Would i like to call that out. So in terms of being a pilot, way up in your jet plane, it is very nice to have good indicators about what in fact youre flying through. Im going to, ask a more general question, i got the opportunity to go up to the Rocky MountainsNational Park this weekend and one of the things that the forestry world has learned is that, if you go and you fight every fire that starts in a forest one day you get a fire that, it comes out of control. They have learned that preburns are actually a really powerful way of controlling big, systemic risk. Im curious where more than a decade into an expansion, as you mentioned, the Unemployment Rate is at a half century low. Do you think there is any sort of fuel building up in the forest of the Financial System . Well let start by saying that you had a more fun weekend than i did. [laughter] let me take that question another way, then i will come back to your question. If you look through the long expansions, one in the 90s and current ones, there have been periods where the economy slows and kind of gathers itself and moves forward again. That was 95, 98, those two episodes and that was 15, 16, a little bit of a slowdown earlier in the midteens in this expansion. So that is a natural, clearly that is a natural, part of these very long expansions that weve been having really for the last 40 years. It seems to be a healthy thing. We clearly things are slowing a bit. Growth is slowing closer to potential. Job growth is slowing as well. It may just be gathering itself. There is no reason why the expansion cant continue. So but in terms of the dry tinder question, you know, we monitor, monitor Financial Stability conditions very carefully now all the time. We have a division. And that is responsible for that. Four briefings a year, regular quarterly briefings for the board, fomc, on going monitoring. We published a framework so everybody could see what were looking at, hold us accountable, the precrisis system, financial crisis happens. Call in the s. W. A. T. Team and try to stop it. So this is a much more forwardlooking thing. So we look at you know, we look at leverage in the Banking System. Leverage in the nonFinancial System, asset prices and stability of funding principally in the Banking System but not exclusively. If we look across all of those today, i would say that the vulnerabilities for the Financial System are moderate over all to say no not low, not high, particularly in areas were monitoring. Asset prices are high and particularly corporate debt. In nonfinancial borrowing you have household and businesses. Households are in good shape. Businesses are borrowing a lot. Something were monitoring carefully. Again vulnerabilities are moderate overall. Great. So when you first became chair, you were seeing, you were spotted numerous times carrying Paul Volckers book under your arm and im curious what lessons did you learn from paul volcker and what, what lessons are you taking through your chairmanship . Yeah. I, you know, ive known paul volcker since i was assistant secretary in the treasury in 1982 or 1 and of course at that time he had just left, relatively recently left the fed. I was frightened of even meeting him. So intimidated by this global figure and he couldnt have been nicer and more interested in you know, helping me an supporting me and he kind of, we kept up and so he was really, he was, it was a great person to know. And i have read all, i read numerous accounts of his life but this book, if you havent read it, i think sums it up really well. I dont think there has been a Greater Public servant in our broad area in our lifetimes. I mean he really just did exactly what he thought was the right thing all the time, he let the chips he was famously booed at a washington bullets basketball game when he had rates very high, and they were then called the bullets. So hes a great man, im still in touch with him. I actually thought i should buy, you know, 500 copies of this book and just hand them out at the fed. I didnt do that, but its a book i strongly recommend and, you know, we can all hope to live up to some part of who he is. Great. Is so one of the things that the fed has been doing over the past year is a Strategic Review of its policy framework. Just recently we had a brookings conference discussing inflation and inflation targeting and a reevaluation of perhaps the framework there. Im curious how that research and review is evolving and your thoughts there. So i think its evolving very well. This was something i really wanted to do as part of my time as chair, and a number of Central Banks around the world have done these external reviews in one form or another. I thought it would just be a good idea, a good time and a good idea for us to do it. And when rich arrived there were only three of us on the board at that time. We were just having a hard time, you know, getting through the day. But rich took this on at the very beginning and has been a great leader for this. Were looking at our framework, our tools and our communications. We began with a series of fed listens events at all 12 reserve bankings. I think the last one im attending the last one tomorrow in kansas city. I think weve done 14 of those. And they are, theyre very different. Lots of them are live streamed, and were hearing from the people we serve mainly. So its people who work, work and live in low and moderate income communities. Its labor unions, small businesses. And really what a maximum employment and price stability and growth mean to them. And i have to say, if youve listened to one of these things and sit through it, its quite striking. Its, it really does i think it sheds a different kind of light than we might ordinarily get just from all the economics that we study. So we take all that up, and were going through a series of board meetings which were looking at, things like makeup strategies for inflation and our toolkit and how we communicate. And were going through those things one by win. I think one by one. I think were making great progress, and i think the exercise zits is a big win and a big gain for transparency and process. But i also, im hopeful and i believe well be able to come out with some innovations which will put us in a better place to serve the public. And im also happy to see other Central Banks around the world are kind of picking up on the idea and doing it. Great, great. So you mentioned the toolkit, and certainly the toolkit over the last decade has expanded quite considerably for not just the fed, but other Central Banks. And as you consider the prospect of if we do see a full business cycle, what tools in that toolkit are you interested in using again . And then what tools do you not have in that toolkit that you hope to have . As this audience will know well, the tools that we did use in the last financial crisis, obvious, were rates, the federal funds rate, which we cut close to zero, effectively to zero. And then we also used fairly aggressively Forward Guidance indicating to the market and this was at a time when the market was predicting liftoff and rate increases that were higher than the committee thought were appropriate. Committed through semicommitments to hold rates low for a long time. So that worked. And also large scale asset purchases of longer term securities which are a way of lowering longterm Interest Rates to support economic growth. So i guess we need to stop