Transcripts For FBC Cavuto Coast To Coast 20240714

Ive been saying this openly. And they have lowered too slow. He took 25. Some people were hoping for 50. He did 25. Im not thrilled with the fed, despite that we have an incredible economy and no inflation. Chairman powells job is safe . Yeah it is safe. Sure, why not . You paused . I dont pause. He has a job, im disappointed in it. Im very disappointed in him. Neil the job is safe because the president cant fire him. Once appointed unless serious malfeasance or crime he is there, he is there for another couple years. Of course the president is free not to reappoint him. That is assuming the president is still in office to decide that. Former Treasury Department economist under president bush 43 David Beckworth with us. Obviously he is not satisfied with the quarterpoint move. He wanted more. We got data today to indicate maybe the fed was wise to make the quarter point and add to that the caveat it is watching other developments. What do you think of the data and confluence and . We saw one fed member, james bullard, actually calling for a 50 basis point cut. Neil i saw that. There is some folks that did want more and i think we can read into the statement and the. Plots carefully, well see that there is probably another rate hike coming. There is a lot of talk about a divided fomc but i think the who actually vote will more likely to cut next time. Neil you know there is this also, the Federal Reserve has been very busy in the markets. Its almost like quantitative easing. I dont want to get too wonky here, but they are doing some interesting things on the side. What do you make of that . Well theyre responding to increased temporary, increase in demand for liquidity. Neil right. Yeah, and so the fed has been shrinking its Balance Sheet as you know and they stopped. And there is this kind of perfect storm of events coming together that increases demand for cash. Treasury was getting payments. It was issuing debt. It dried up a lot of reserves in the Banking System at the very time many firms needed it. So the fed is doing now what it actually did before 2008. The fed would do temporary repurchase agreements, terri injections to calm markets down. It is not entirely new. I wouldnt call it purebred quantitative easing. Somewhere in between. Neil david, when you step back and look at the fact that there were three dissenters on the quarterpoint cut, you were right to point out bullard of st. Louis he want ad bigger cut, a halfpoint cut but it is not unusual for decisions on the part of the Federal Reserve to have some dissenters but people are reading into this one it is an extremely divided fed. Can you help me with that . Historically how does this fed stand with overs you have covered in the past . The reason this is called a divided decision because 10 of the 17 potential voting members indicate they want rates to stay where they are or think that rates should have been kept higher. That is a big number out of 17. So people are looking at that, saying this is a divided fomc as i mentioned earlier the people who vote, are much smaller voting group. Only 10 vote in that group. At least half, potentially seven of them indicated on the dot plot they will vote for a rate cut if things curly continue to look like they are. I think were reading too much into the dot plot but historically there have been other dissents before. This is not unusual. This is a unique time of the year and things are coming to a head. There is transition from tightening last year to easing this year. So i think we should be careful reading too much into what happened. Neil i think youre absolutely right. David beckworth. Thank you. Neil the 10 who decided on this including three david alluded to to opted not to go that route and one to cut more, the other two not cut at all, there are 10 rotating voting members in the federal open market committee. You heard that referred to as the fomc seven voted for the three. Including the chairman. Three did not. Trade talks are underway in washington, d. C. Remember the trade talks and lack of progress on them, questions raised for the economy the reason why the Federal Reserve cut rates an additional quarter point, second time in three months. Edward lawrence at the white house, how these talks are going. Edward . Reporter neil, the talks are going on right now as we speak here. These are deputy level talks. Well get a sense of the progress that can be made as these talks go forward this week with a greater trade deal. This will also set up a meeting with the two heads of the trade teams in early october. Commerce secretary wilbur ross said this morning he believes the u. S. Needs to see something from the chinese this week to have progress. Listen. Well if they arent prepared to give on anything were not going to get anywhere. Right, right. Remember what we need is correct the big imbalances, not just the current trade deficit, but structural imbalances impediments to market access, disrespect for intellectual property, forced Technology Transfers so it is more complicated than just buying a few more soybeans. Reporter now the chinese are calling these preliminary talks. Today trade sources say the atmosphere changed for the chinese when President Donald Trump decided to delay tariff increases 15 days to october 15th. Those sources, those chinese trade sources say that the talks this week, they would like to have them center around how they could get to a winwin out of this deal. The chinese did buy more soybeans from the u. S. So we asked the agriculture secretary, sonny perdue, if this means possibly another round for help from farmers is coming up . This is what he said. Listen. We cant say that obviously everyone would rather have trade. I would rather have a big trade announcement coming, prices recover there wouldnt be a need for one but obviously the president is prepared if it is necessary he will not let china bully him into a quick deal in order to resolve that. Reporter that could be another aid package there for farmers, leaving the door open there. Huawei is not expected to come up in these talks this week because the chinese according to chinese sources say these are just preliminary talks. That is a bigger talk for a bigger discussion another day. Neil. Neil thank you my friend. Edward lawrence at the white house. Global growth is set to slow to the weakest pace in over a decade. To Fidelity Investments global macro director eric timber, and may flower managing partner larry glazer. This comes from the oecd, organization for Economic Cooperation and development a good mix of countries of all stripes increasingly concerned what happens with the Global Economy if the two strongest economies keep fighting with each other. So your impression of what theyre saying a slowdown is coming . Well they are just describing what has already been happening. The Global Economy has been slowing well over a year. The u. S. Was bucking that trend for a while because of fiscal stimulus and tax cuts, deregulation, et cetera, but the u. S. Has now joined the rest of the world. It is a interesting dichotomy. U. S. Consumers are very, very strong. Full employment, ten years into an expansion but when you look at the industrial manufacturing side, kind of more linked to the Global Economy, clearly there is issues. Europe is barely growing. 2 gdp growth. Germany is in contraction. China is having a severe growth recession as well and so these are the crosscurrents that, you know, the fed is trying to navigate just yesterday and so its a very tricky environment. And the big question is, we know the economy is slowing, globally and in the u. S. The question is, will it continue and at what point will we see some sort of bottoming in activity and that is of course what everyone is trying to figure out right now. Neil what im trying to figure out, larry glazer, why do we want to imitate europe, why we want lower rates at all, why we want to go in the direction of zero rates but right now were about the only hopping economy on the planet . I think you make a great point, neil. Clearly the storm clouds are forming on the horizon and theyre starting in europe and migrating over here. It is not just one cloud. Most u. S. Investors are very focused on chinese trade. There is brexit, european slowdown, all the other issues that seem to be migrating here. Because of that the adults in the room in the United States are becoming increasingly concerned. Oecd, calling the u. S. And Global Economy fragile uncertain and fed cutting rates and u. S. Cfos increasingly the majority of which are seeing recession next six to 12 months. The only person that seems on live just to that oblivious to this is the u. S. Consumer. With the help of fed, low rates, global stimulus, with china infrastructure, with some good policies out of washington clearing up uncertainty maybe we can push this off a little bit and dodge this bullet but were definitely getting mixed messages coming out of washington, cfos. It will start to affect the behavior of investors. It is clearly affecting corporate behavior as you see buybacks, microsoft, target. That is money not going into plants and equipment. Not going into hiring. It is going into buybacks. That is actually a negative for the economy as a whole. Neil the president has been critical of the Federal Reserve that this latest move represents no guts, no vision. He previously said fed governors and direct president s are boneheads. This is obviously going to continue right through the election year. Any fallout from any of this . I dont think there is any fallout per se. As larry mentioned it is kind of a luxury problem that we are growing fast enough we dont have to lower rates to zero. I mean we are you know, at full employment 10 years into an expansion. Inflation is running around 2. Growth is running two and change. Socalled neutral rate which is a rate that is a theoretical construct, that is considered to be around two, 2 1 2. For the fed to go to 1 3 4 as it did yesterday is already modest easing move but for them to go to zero or Something Like that, careful what you wish for because that would probably mean we would be in real dire straits in terms of the economy. So i think the fed is being prudent here. Maybe they should have been a little more willing to ease down the line. I think also given the liquidity issues as your previous guests mentioned in the repo market, the fed probably needs to start expanding its Balance Sheet again in the coming months. The repo market has become way too small relative to the overall bond market. We didnt really feel that when the Balance Sheet was expanding. Now that it is contracting, were starting to see liquidity spikes happen as we saw in recent days. I think the fed will be doing more. It wants to see a clear and present danger. Unfortunately, historically, once you see that. It can often be too late. Neil i agree with you. Every time that i hear the fed is involved, market doing that sort of stuff i get a little nervous. Three days running they have been doing it. Well watch it closely. Gentlemen, thank you very much. For one thing president ial candidate tulsi is to say weve been friends of saudi arabians, but quite another to say theyre a bigger threat than iran is. Really . After this. Memory support brand. You can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. Prevagen. Healthier brain. Better life. Have you lost weight . Of course i have ever since i started renting from national. Because national lets me lose the wait at the counter. And choose any car in the aisle. And i dont wait when i return, thanks to drop go. At national, i can lose the wait. And keep it off. Looking good, patrick. I know. vo go national. Go like a pro. Everyone has something to say. But in a world full of talking, shouldnt somebody be listening . So. Lets talk. We are edward jones. With one Financial Advisor per office, were built for hearing whats important to you. One to one. Edward jones. Its time for investing to feel individual. Here, hello starts with hi mple. How can i help . A data plan for everyone. Everyone . Everyone. Lets send to everyone [ camera clicking ] wifi up there . Ahhh. Sure, why not . Howd he get out . a camera might figure it out. That was easy glad i could help. At xfinity, were here to make life simple. Easy. Awesome. So come ask, shop, discover at your xfinity store today. Neil iran foreign minister is already threatening allout war if there is a military strike against his country but president ial candidate Tulsi Gabbard is suggesting that real worry is saudi arabia, not iran. They are continuing to spend billions of dollars every year propagating this extremist, wahhabi ideology that is fueling the growth of terrorist groups like al qaeda and isis and others around the world. They are directly supporting those who pose a threat to our country and to the United States. That threat, that we need to defeat. Neil is that threat greater than iran . Yes. It is. Neil so a president Tulsi Gabbard would see saudi arabia as a bigger threat to our country than iran . What would i like to see is saudi arabia ending their support for al qaeda, terrorist groups like al qaeda. Neil that is not what i asked. That is not what i asked. Youre turning my words around. Youre turning my words around. Neil i want to be very clear. You have, you have, higher opinion of iran than you do saudi arabia . No, not at all what im saying. Neil then explain. What im saying im focused how we best keep the American People safe. How we can make sure that we are, that we have our National Security intact. Neil and saudis are a bigger threat, the saudis are a bigger threat to that safety than iran . The saudis are sporting very terrorist group that attacked us on 9 11 and continues to pose a threat to the American People today. Neil so if the president were to take action against iran with or without saudi intelligence or help, that would be a bad move in your eyes . That would be a very bad move. It would not serve the interests of the United States. Neil were hooking up with the wrong guys . Former Navy Seal Team six commander dave sears what do you think of that. No. Iran is definitely a bigger threat than saudi arabia. Saudi arabia is no saint. I dont think there are any saints in the middle east. So youre definitely getting into the mud with, you know, getting dirty. That said iran openly supports hezbollah. They openly support hamas. They openly support shia militias that kill u. S. Soldiers. They openly support different, al qaeda. We know that they harbored and helped al qaeda as well. They openly call for the destruction and complete obliteration of a nation and a country and its people, israel. They have attempted assassinations here in the United States. They have done things overseas in Southeast Asia with different assassination attempts. Iran is certainly at the top of the list of the maligned players in the world, way ahead of saudi arabia. Neil could i maybe get your interpretation of some of these mixed messages were getting out of washington on these attacks on iran . The pentegon is declining to say whether iran was behind those attacks. As you know secretary of state mike pompeo had said it is unequivocal at least to him that they were. What do you make of this . I dont see all the evidence. From what i can see it does look like it was iran or from what saudi arabia wants us to see it looks like it was iran. The missiles look like, they dont have the range to come from yemen. Looks like they have videos of drones coming from the north. Yemen is to the south where the houthis are. All evidence points to iran. If it is acts of war if it is iran an act of war against the saudi arabia. I believe this is problem for saudi arabia to deal with, not the United States. Neil having said that dave, it was so easy if it was indeed iran to have done this, without a single soldier, a series of drones, almost topple a kingdom . Got that close, certainly with the Oil Facilities they couldnt help themselves. We couldnt help them help themselves. What did you think of it all . Absolutely. Im not that familiar with saudi arabias Defense System and what they have set up neil they clearly werent ready for this. Easy to be a monday morning quarterback but they were clearly not ready for a drone attack. Because it is largely pointed south. Theyre trying to protect rocket attacks from yemen and houthis there. If you have majority of equipment pointed south, youre not looking at iran then you will be open. I think they learned their lesson. That said as well, you have the problem with drones and Ballistic Missiles you can send them en masse. They can come under radar. Things are not designed against them. It is problematic. They need different defense looks to mitigate it. Neil the pentagon is also saying right now they dont have any announcements on changes in troop levels in the region. I think theyre talking about the region. Does that surprise you at all . No. I wouldnt. What is going to happen, they should lay out to the president all the possible options. They need to consider if we do a, then the possibilities of b, c, d, and e exist. If we do b this could happen. They need to walk through the second, third order consequences of any actions this could likely be, if it is iran, they may want us to bait into attack against them, gain sympathy from the world. We should take the opportunity here is the proof iran did it. Leave iran entirely. Get the National Community condemn iran. Let this backfire on them. Neil you would heighten the restrictions or trade sanctions, leave it at that for the timebeing . For the timebeing. There is also other covert things you can do that are below the radar i would look at. There are different cyber things. There are different pieces that would be below the radar, and not as visible i would also be looking at. Neil dave sears, thank you very much, my friend. Good having. You thanks, neil. Neil we were talking about all the crosscurrent. Dow is up 67 points. 10 of the 11 s p 500 sectors are to the upside. The only one anomaly down is i stress nominally is oil. Of stocks dow 30, 10 are in negative territory, ones are up, up enough to offset the ones that are down. Meanwhile amazon Ceo Jeff Bezos is sending a message to the president saying he is going to go ahead to make a Climate Change pledge whether the president wants to or not. After this. A Money Market Fund when you open a new account. Just another reminder of the value youll find at fidelity. Open an account today. Imagine a world where nothing gets in the way of doing great work. Where an American Icon uses the latest hr tools to stay true to the family recipe. Where a music studio spends less time on hr and payroll, and more time crafting that perfect sound. Where the nations Biggest Party store can staff up quickly as soon as its time for fun. This is the world of adp. Hr, talent, time, benefits and payroll. Designed for people. Why accept it frompt an incompyour allergy pills . E else. Flonase sensimist. Nothing stronger. Nothing gentler. Nothing lasts longer. Flonase sensimist. 24 hour nondrowsy allergy relief Neil Facebook Ceo Mark Zuckerberg is certainly making the round in washington, d. C. Meeting with lawmakers. Bipartisan effort for the lawmakers, democrats, republicans interested in reining in facebook and taking zuckerberg on his author last year to police an regulate his company. To democratic virginia senator mark warner who organized at least one of those meetings. Good to see you. Thanks, neil. Neil how did it go . I think it went pretty well. Ive sown zuckerberg for a long time. Facebook is aware of whole legislative ideas that i have. I wanted to him to hear from variety of senators. Some who have active positions. Some who have not been active in this field. Across the group that we were with last night. There were concerns about content issues. There were concerns about, privacy issues. There were concerns voiced about libra libra, the new Cryptocurrency Facebook is advocating. They realize failure to have federal legislation in this space will hurt them and the whole platform industry in the long run because as individual countries move on privacy was the way europe does or uk and individual states like california has, all were doing is raising the floor. Neil so do you think facebook has gotten too big for its britches . I think i think there has never been Companies Like facebook and google, of such size and power without any kind of regulatory oversight. I think ftc 5 billiondollar fine they gave to facebook, while not largest fine ever, equivalent to a slap on the wrist because it was tiny percentage of revenue they made in a single quarter. Im not yet with some of my friends who want to go straight to breakup. I am concerned. These are global companies. I dont want to transfer leadership to Chinese Companies but i do think we need a lot more transparency. We need to have privacy rights protected. We need increased competition, data portability and inneroperability. And one of the things we did talk to zuckerberg last night, there is a real debate about identity validation or authentication. Were concerned about some horrible, awful things posted on these platforms. If you had to put your real name or real identity, to own those comments that would be one tool to cut back on some of that activity. Neil senator, if you dont mind my switching gears a little bit. Sure. Neil were getting mixed reads out of the Administration Whether iran was behind the attacks in saudi arabia. Secretary of state mike pompeo yesterday said they were. The president seemed to move in that direction today. From the defense department, no such conclusions yet. Do you think from the intelligence you have seen, i know you cant reveal everything, that iran was line this . Neil, i heard your earlier guest, who i thought was very, very thoughtful. I think what were seeing now some of the implications of a president sometimes tweets before he has all the facts and i think it is appropriate that the Intelligence Community is taking its time to nail down this case. I do believe that the houthis didnt have the capability to launch this type of an attack. Does that therefore mean it was iran . Lets let the Intelligence Community finish its work but were going into this with all of the worlds leaders coming to new york next week for the u. N. General assembly. In a traditional case, if this had been president bush, president obama, president clinton, we could have gone to the world when we had this evidence, the rest of the world would accept this evidence. I think we would have united front if iran took this action. Now it feels like it is us and saudi arabia. As your earlier guest mentioned this may have been an act of war against saudi arabia. But it was not an act of war against the United States. And again i dont think the president helped his position or our countrys position when he was saying he was going to wait to hear from the kingdom of saudi arabia before he decided what we should do. We ought to be acting on our Foreign Policy for americas interest, not to protect saudi oil. Neil i think he was stipulating whether the iranians were behind it whether we have the wherewithal to see that. Tipping from the saudis. What do you make of that . I will not use the terminology. One of the things we continue to see from the saudis is that we sell them some of our best equipment but their ability to use that equipment in an effective way to protection their own country, for that matter they have been so inept of their conflict with the houthis, it is real challenges, really, really challenging. Neil okay. There has been other attacks against saudi facilities. They should have had better defense and better prepared. Clearly right, they were not ready for this one. Senator, always good speaking with you. Thank you for taking the time. Thank you, neil. Neil back to a Political Development were following closely. A push for medicare for all. What about the people that have private Health Insurance, theyre okay with that . Apparently a lot of these front running candidates on the democratic side are not. Was ahead of its time. Still, we never stopped making it stronger. Faster. Smarter. Because to be the best, is to never ever stop making it better. 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Tell your doctor if you are allergic to fish or shellfish, have liver problems or other medical conditions and about any medications you take, especially those that may affect blood clotting. 2. 3 of patients reported joint pain. Ask your doctor about vascepa. Prescription power. Proven to work. Today we are announcing, the climate pledge. The climate pledge is to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement 10 years early. Amazon becomes the first signatory. Neil but prime customers get it 15 years early. No, kidding. That was amazons ceo announcing corporate wide climate pledge to meet socalled goals of the paris accord this is the one President Trump walked away from here, that it disproportionately put the burden on the United States to address issues far bigger in places like china and india. Campus reform editorinchief abbott phillips, blake rutherford. Cabot, this came out of the blue. I disagree with the approach this country has officially taken. I think, it is good corporate policy to do what im doing, what do you make of that. Not totally out of blue which have 1000 employees in amazon up in seattle would walk out in pros of it amazons Climate Policy. In their words not doing enough. Neil i didnt even know amazon had a Climate Policy one way or the other though . Yeah. Some of the employees are upset the way they were working with fossil fuels. They would still be working with fossil fuels. This is what the future looks like. This will be the first of many announcements like we see from Companies Like amazon of the first off it is good press. Obviously if you get a lot of free earned media there. Also it comes down to, if you think Climate Change is a problem, what better way to combat it free individuals, private enterprise, people innovating from the free market coming out to helping push back against it. So i do think this is better solution than forced Government Intervention and again kudos to amazon putting their money where their mouth is, saying they think this is a problem, implementing steps to help fix it. Neil i wonder what the steps might be, blake . They ship a lot of goods all over the world. A lot of those are gas, fuel guzzling vehicles planes, jets, cargo, otherwise. They have to make good on that, right . Certainly they do. I think amazon wanted to be the first mover here. I think you will see, and they have foreshadowed a little bit, greater investment in electric in terms of vehicle footprint. Youre right, there is not a lot of specialities in the pledge or amazons plan. Well learn more in weeks and months ahead. I want to go back to a point cabot made, you can certainly have both. This is very smart corporate policy from amazon. Theyre leading the way here. I still think though the United States needs to lead the way on the world stage. I think pulling out of the Paris Climate Accord was a mistake. I think well see that reverse if administrations changed. But i also think well see corporations following amazons lead here, in whatever way makes sense for them to address their carbon footprints. Neil gentlemen, if i can just switch topics here a little bit. There is a new fox poll shows Bernie Sanders support is rising. His signature policy is resonating includes this idea of medicare for all. Elizabeth warren has a separate version of that. Theyre kind of similar in that they would disband private Health Insurance as we know it, move everyone to this model. Cabot what do you think . Well, i think Bernie Sanders biggest contribution to the race will end up being shifting to open window. Three, four years ago a lot policies embraced on stage were considered extreme. Now theyre normal. There is ceiling for Bernie Sanders. We see him gaining steam in the polling. As long as Elizabeth Warren is in the race, he will find so many of his voters are far Left Progressive people. When it comes to medicare for all, the rise, how quickly risen in popularity. Part of it is message. People said you support medicare for all or youre not compassionate. If you dont support medicare for all, that you support thousands of people dying in the streets. They dont know what the alternative. They are willing to embrace medicare for all kicking tens of millions of people off plans they like. We all know there is a problem. But they cant ignore the problem neil they lost the house ignoring this issue, youre right about that. Blake, there are a lot of people, democrats included who have their own private plans, they might not all be tickled with them but they like them. Right. Neil im wondering there is risk, a general election with Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders are running that is going to come back to bite them, what do you think . I agree with you, neil. I think being for the elimination of private Health Insurance is not a Winning Strategy in a general election. I do think Bernie Sanders has already hit his ceiling. I think that Elizabeth Warren has some, has more manueverrability if she were to get the nomination, look, right now, joe biden is in the lead and joe biden is not for medicare for all. He is for a public option. We remember how polarizing the public option was during the debate over the Affordable Care act. Now a lot of people, not just democrats, a lot of, a lot of people in the country are for some form of a public option. Youve seen senator biden, i mean Vice President biden excuse me embrace that idea. You have seen mayor Pete Buttigieg embrace that idea yesterday. Medicare for all if you want it. Otherwise your private insurance stays in place and Affordable Care act continues to be improved. That is more after strategy in the general election but you have to get through the primary. Neil medicare for all who want it, that might be a important distinction. Blake, final word. I always appreciate both you guys. Thank you very, very much. Tomorrow you can get your hot little hands on them. Im talking about the new iphone. All of this as huawei launches an attack on apple and promises some phones that have features that these apple new phones do not. After this. 48 bales. All before lunch, which we caught last saturday. We earn our scars. We wear our work ethic. We work until the works done. And when it is, a few hours of shuteye to rest up for tomorrow, the day well finally get something done. neil i think it is tomorrow you can get your hot little hands on that, the new iphone 11. It is due out tomorrow. Orders, advance orders started last week but people can get them i believe in new york where they will open up the new apple store at the Worlds Largest off of fifth avenue. They are expecting lines for people to grab this puppy. Now is it worth all of the hype youve been hearing especially on a day were learning huawei is taking another step into 5g with mate 30 smartphones unveiled today. I have no idea what that means but apparently russ does. One of the smart evident people i know in this business and he speaks english even an idiot like me an cad. Good to see you my friend. Good to see you. Neil he has one of the hot little phones. What do you think . The big difference the three cameras in the back, that is the biggest jump here. Apple knows at this point where phones differentiate themselves in the camera. You can say, hey, that is better picture im taking. That is neil no one what does it sound like anymore, right . Harder to differentiate this has better processer. Battery is specifically better, three hours, four more hours per day which is serious jump. I think that is where theyre really differentiating this year. Really going at these Companies Like samsung and huawei, are pushing camera as differentiate or. Neil galaxy samsung always had spear year camera. Are you guys saying this is i am not a professor. I can do instagram. Professors at this point there are moments you dont need a full size, sure if you want to take a photo from million miles away, close up you dont need a fullon dsr. Neil get out of here. It is great. Neil let me get your read what huawei is saying oh, they dont have 5g. Were saying we do. But 5g isnt around right now. That is the whole point. Apple could jam 5g into the phones but wouldnt make a difference because we dont have towers. Neil wouldnt you want it ready for that . It will not be ready until very earliest next years model. Neil really . You would the not be able to take advantage of it, if these phones had them today, it wouldnt make a difference. Neil how do you think it is going to do then . It was supposed to be a placeholder for whatever comes out next year . I think it will do well. As you said, i dont think this is a huge, huge revamp for apple. This is the third model using this general basic design. So i think theyre positioned to, as you said a place old holder of a pro line, appeals to people hey i want a highend thing. These phone wars where people are picking sides, it which comes down to which ecosystem are you comfortable with . Do you like apple doing with a more controlled walled system, they are like selected apps or prefer wide open what youre getting with an Android Phone . Neil you can with other phone makers. Apple is very proprietary. They dont like to share. They make a lot of money. Neil what would be the price of the most expensive model of the 11 . The 11 pro max starts at 1100. Neil starts at 1100 . Starts at. As you increase Storage Capacity it goes up a little higher than that its steep. Here is what im going to say. The 11 which they launch tomorrow as well, the nonpro which comes at 700, the guts of that thing, it doesnt have as good after camera but the guts of it are effectively the same. It has the same processor. The same internals. So if youre to the going to obsess about the camera, you would be fine with the 11 at 700 which is a pretty good deal all things considered. Neil are people freaking out what is it called, the word for it three cameras, circles . People are afraid of holes. I dont remember the term, what youre referring to . Neil yeah. Are you, can you hold it up. There are certain people when they see holes for some reason there is like a phobia attached to that. Neil right. Is that what is going on . Doesnt bother me. I take photos. Neil weird things happen. I start liking cnbc. Im kidding. Youre the best my friend. He could explain that. I understand that. I try. Neil are there going to be long lines . It is apple. Always long lines. No question. Neil market very, very well. Thank you my friend, very, very much. That is an Interesting Development on the camera. Another Interesting Development about israel, the election was essentially a draw. Prime minister netanyahu is reaching out to the guy that got a few more votes than he is talking about a coalition government. Benjamin netanyahu wants to lead the coalition government. The other guy does not. Well have more after this. Im not really a, i thought wall street guy. Ns. Whats the hesitation . Eh, it just feels too complicated, you know . Well sure, at first, but jj can help you with that. Jj, will you break it down for this gentleman . Hey, ian. You know, at Td Ameritrade, we can walk you through your options trades step by step until youre comfortable. I could be up for that. Thats taking options trading from wall st. To main st. Hey guys, wanna play some pool . Eh, im not really a pool guy. Whats the hesitation . Its just complicated. 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Oh, weve got your back. So, you can really promise better sleep . Not promise. Prove. And now save up to 500 on select sleep number 360 smart beds. Only for a limited time. Neil republicans looking to enhance the socalled squad, divide the democrats, cut up the opposition. Charlie gasparino. What is going on . This is rumor mill of republican operatives and congressional operatives how the republicans are going to try to win in 2020. One way they are going to do it, clearly donald trump sees mileage on this new kavanaugh book that is a lot of stuff he can bring up and attack the reporters and New York Times and associate them with the Democratic Left of the party, that hates certain people, hates, wants to put your male children in jail. That is essentially from what i hear youre looking at, framing that issue. This issue is different. This is issue i hear republican operatives are talking about, some sort of a superpac that is being bandied about, to raise money, this is a superpac run by a wealthy business individual, just speculation were hearing. I havent been able to nail this down, but my source is congressman, just so you know, i wont say who it is. Neil i bet i can get you to say it. Maybe offcamara and off mic. Neil were offcamara now. You remember that connie chung, newt gingrich, you can whisper in my ear. He called her a but in any event theyre raising money to enhance, enhance the profile of the squad, to make them the face of the democratic party, not to attack them, to make them the face. So trump can turn around look, you want to vote for joe biden or Elizabeth Warren, these are the folks youre actually voting for, the most radical leftwing congresspeople there are. Neil whether you like or dislike that approach, the Democratic Candidates are parroting a lot of their positions. They are. But they are so antiisrael and so radical on some other issues that, you know, republicans believe if they can enhance their profile and attach whoever they got to them, they can make some, they can make some hay out of it. Neil switch gears to at t and directv. I want to say this you know, because we broke the story. I want to say that the wall street journal, the editor there who went to my wedding, matt murray, reporters, probably good reporters but they couldnt wear my jockstrap as a reporter or hold it is is the term. Neil where are we going . Here is the thing. They wont cite us breaking the story two days ago but it was my producer, Lydia Moynihan who beat the hell out of the wall street journal and at least i know theyre mad that 14 years ago i left them in the dust, that i went to work other places including here but get over it give lydia, you took her story neil you know there are corporate im saying you took her story. Give her credit. Neil what is the story, bottom line . Bankers, by the way, there is no deal. Bankers are inundating at t and randall stephenson, ceo with proposals to sell directv. It comes on heels neil lose subscribers. Losing subscribers. Elliot management neil i read the journal story. Im kidding. I broke it on your are you feeling okay . I broke it here. Neil i dont know how much more you can destroy your career. It is not my career. Im saying give the kid a break. She beat matt. She beat you. Just give her credit neil we all breathe the same air. Listen when they break stories, wall street journal does this, we say it. Right . Dont we . Neil well, i dont know. Headlines, wall street journal every day. Neil okay. [inaudible] a lot more after this. Stay with us. When you open a new account. Just another reminder of the value youll find at fidelity. Open an account today. Of the value youll find at fidelity. Im working to make each day a little sweeter. Adp simplifies hr, benefits, and payroll for magnolia bakery, so employees like sarah can achieve what theyre working for. Have you lost weight . Of course i have ever since i started renting from national. Because national lets me lose the wait at the counter. And choose any car in the aisle. And i dont wait when i return, thanks to drop go. At national, i can lose the wait. And keep it off. Looking good, patrick. I know. vo go national. Go like a pro. But when i started seeing things, i didnt know what was happening. So i kept it in. He started believing things that werent true. I knew something was wrong. But i didnt say a word. During the course of their disease around 50 of people with parkinsons may experience hallucinations or delusions. But now, doctors are prescribing nuplazid. The only fda approved medicine. Proven to significantly reduce hallucinations and delusions related to parkinsons. Dont take nuplazid if you are allergic to its ingredients. Nuplazid can increase the risk of death in elderly people with dementiarelated psychosis and is not for treating symptoms unrelated to parkinsons disease. Nuplazid can cause changes in heart rhythm and should not be taken if you have certain abnormal heart rhythms or take other drugs that are known to cause changes in heart rhythm. Tell your doctor about any changes in medicines youre taking. The most common side effects are swelling of the arms and legs and confusion. We spoke up and it made all the difference. Ask your parkinsons specialist about nuplazid. Neil all right. We got microsoft hitting new highs, could climb even higher, and vocal support for this new Mexico Canadian trade deal. So far, no votes are coming and that worries folks who have been paying attention to what is happening with the china deal, but paying little attention to one that would have a more immediate impact. Meanwhile, we are focusing on whats going on in israel and Benjamin Netanyahu making an offer to the guy who technically got more votes, maybe they can cobble together a coalition government. Heres the thing. Netanyahu wants to be the guy heading it. The guy who beat him is saying just the opposite. Well see how that goes. Prime minister trudeau of canada, another picture surfaced. You see how that goes. Were on top of that. I dont think he knows how to play the game very well. Theyve raised too fast. Ive been saying this openly. And theyve lowered too slow. And he took 25, some people were hoping for 50. He took 25. So im not thrilled with the fed but despite that, we have an incredible economy and we dont have inflation. Chairman powells job is safe . Its safe. Yeah. Its safe. I mean, sure. Why not . Hes got a job. Im disappointed in him. Im very disappointed. The economy is booming, why do we need a bigger cut than a quarter point . I think, look, we certainly welcomed a 25 basis points cut but what the president has been calling for is a level Playing Field with our trading partners and competitors. Neil i dont know how the Vice President comes up with it. What the president meant to say. Welcome back. The president not happy with the feds latest quarter point move, one that might be telegraphing no immediate followup moves for the time being. The president says thats not a good idea as the europeans are able to work their very very weakened currencies the a trade advantage that we do not enjoy. Those economies arent exactly firing on all cylinders. Lets bring in our panel right now. Karen kerrigan, mike murphy and camela chain. Hes not letting go. No cuts, no glory, no sense, et cetera. But he moves on. He moves on. But if you remember, back early this year, when the president first came out and said the fed was talking about raising rates, the president came out and said no, the exact opposite, they should be cutting rates. At the time we all kind of looked at each other like what is he saying, where is this coming from. Now when you look, lets give the president credit on that. Neil absolutely. Even the fed has acknowledged they overdid it. They overdid it. Now they are correcting it. I think the president will stick with his rhetoric of trying to keep his foot on the pedal or on the fed, if you will, but they are going to be data dependent. If the market if the data calls for another rate cut, we will get it. If it doesnt, were good where we are. Neil i dont know how close you follow some of these feds funds futures contracts. I bore myself even talking about it. Thats not the first time. But the expectation of immediate cuts has been reduced to under 50 . How do we interpret that . The market is just saying maybe the fed, take the fed at its word this is it for awhile . I think so. I think we have to take the fed chairmans word, period, in terms of neil to mikes point, the fed did admit botching it. And the fact they are going to be data dependent, they will have a wait and see attitude about the evolving risk picture. Neil is there a risk easing too much . You know, yeah. There may be. But i think theres just too many variables right now. Obviously whats happening on the trade front, are we going to be getting a deal or not with china, whats going to happen with usmca. Some of the geopolitical tensions and things that we see happening around the world, how thats going to impact, continue to Impact Global growth and Business Investment. But you know, i think this wait and see attitude, if you look at the housing numbers, if you look at the manufacturing numbers, that sort of supports the fed sort of wait and see data dependent view, i think. Look, we can have a trade deal right away. Business investment might turn around very very quickly. But again, its sort of the wait and see. Thats kind of the thing, if they botched it in the past and a lot of people see and agree that they did, then they pretty much or the chairman at least was saying yesterday they really dont, to karens point, know whats going on now. Neil they know its affecting cfos, ceos thats true. I should say they dont know whats going to happen next. A lot of that is dependent, to me at least, a lot of that is dependent on trade policy which is jay powell said over and over to make us understand they dont control that which we get. But there could be some sort of change or china deal, whatever the case may be. That does change their outlook. You know, saying we are dependent on data, we dont know what will happen next [ speaking simultaneously ] you bring up the fed funds futures contract, i think you can take that and throw it out the window. Neil which is why i mentioned it. Its really, for sure neil looking how volatile that is, too. We dont have to say dot plot as much. What we are pricing in nine months from now, its not going to work out that way. A lot of things could happen that could change the feds stance. Lets wait until we get that happening. Neil we dont have time to wait, young man. I want to bring mark hamrick into this, bankrate senior economic analyst. Mark, what do you make of this backandforth between the president and the Federal Reserve . Obviously no love lost there. The president was asked whether you are going to keep the guy and all. The president cant fire him, i guess, unless he does a crime or theres malfeasance there. He has to deal with it, right . Well, i think Jerome Powell is going to continue to do the job that he thinks he needs to do, as do the other members of the Federal Reserve board and the fomc. Neil thats a divided board, isnt it . It is. Yeah. Neil including one who wanted a bigger cut. I think we have gone from divided america to divided fomc. We had five people who thought rates are now too low based on the dot plot. So to your earlier point about trying to price in what happens from here, i do think that its entirely dependent on such things as u. S. china negotiations. By the way, we have a hard brexit thats right over the hood of the car here which although its been widely predicted and we know if its going to be like the y2k bug and nothing significant happens or not, but there are plenty of risks that remain very much right in front of us. Neil im wondering, given the strength of the economy, given the housing, housing starts, existing home sales, mortgage refinancing, you could make the argument this is a big mistake what were doing. What, in terms of cutting rates . Neil yes. You know, well have to see. I think it was sort of baked in, you know, cable a couple of wee. Neil but the markets are leading the fed. They are. I guess it goes to show you how difficult their job has become in terms of looking at all these different factors and you know, when you look at if we get a china if usmca passes, if we get neil its looking doubtful . I think usmca im not going to make any definite predictions but usmca is looking pretty good in terms of what we are hearing on the hill, what we are seeing on the hill. Theres pressure on a lot of those members of congress, house members who just won, who want to bring home victory for their farmers, for their tech community, for their Small Businesses, and i think this is one thing that the House Democrats will give to the president as a victory but look, the evolving risk picture as Jerome Powell says, well have to see what happens on china as well but i think we are all going to get a deal on that. So that could help Business Investment which could help drive growth but then you get into the 2020 election and where is the Business Community and ceos going to be on that in terms of their view, the outlook neil a lot of them are hunkering down for something. The ceos. Yeah. We are also trying to figure out how that community and consumers will respond to whatever happens on policy. Sometimes its not as predictable as we think. Its taken housing awhile to show the numbers that we saw today on existing home sales. They are actually expected to be down. It was a surprise that they went up. T there have been questions for weeks and weeks hey, if rates are so low, why arent more people buying a house. Now maybe they are. So the response has become more predictable on that front, then it will be a little easier to put policy in play. I think a lot of people would have thought the consumer would have slowed down but a lot of retailers, a lot of companies have not been able to pass along, you know, the tariffs, so prices have stayed low, consumers have stayed humaninhu. Its been difficult to predict things. Neil do you buy that, mark, when you hear ceos and the cfos are concerned about these headwinds, trade headwinds, the very headwinds that fed chairman Jerome Powell alluded to in justifying the courts we did see and that its affecting their expansion plans, cap spending, hiring, and you know, average consumers hear that, say boy, my boss is hunkering down, maybe i should be hunkering down. You see any sense of that or chance of that . I think theres a pretty good chance if i go down on the street now and ask people what their personal reaction is to the Business Roundtable ceo survey, they will ask me to keep moving down the sidewalk. Neil i was doing just that yesterday. It was annoying. Youre right. But having said that, obviously it differs sector to sector. At the end of the day, what ceos need to do is deploy capital based on the demand theyre seeing and the outlook for demand. They dont want to get ahead of that. They dont want to get behind that because thats lost opportunity. The reality is the Global Environment has worsened and we do have these headwinds that are directly correlated to the u. S. china situation. Those are real things. But having said that, if you are apple and unveiling a new iphone and you think people want to buy it, youre not going to scale back simply because that is a risk. Neil i just wonder the fallout here. If people get a sense that a slowdown is coming, and we havent, you know, the business cycle, they will pounce on anything, right . If we dont see any evidence of it, to connells earlier point, im wondering how that plays for the president. In other words, is he setting this up as if something goes afoul here, dont say i didnt warn you and mention the fact this bonehead at the Federal Reserve, to quote the president , screwed it up . Yeah. Yes, i think from what you say, if the economy goes bad and if its hurting the general public in their pocketbook, if they dont have money to spend, the president will take the fall for that. He can try to blame it but people will look at the person in charge, at the president. That will affect him negatively in the election. I think when you look now, we have been hearing people talk about recession for the last six months. And i have come on here and said a recession will come at some point but i dont see anything out there right now that tells me recession is coming. If you look at fed exs numbers, fed ex has been impacted by a lot of the trade war with china. But there are so many companies, Venture Capital investors see so many u. S. Focused companies that are expanding rapidly that are doing great. The economy right now neil very good point. Is doing very well. Even look at retail. Some retailers are doing great. Some arent doing great. Thats what we want in the market. There will be winners and losers. Neil to that point, final question on this, this notion that, and i think the president raised it i think last week, where a lot of companies will seize on the trade war as an excuse for a bad quarter or, you know, slowing revenue, much like retailers used to do and blame the rain or the weather for a bad quarter but never crediting the sun if it was a good quarter. Is that going to happen here . Do you have to look at these numbers and guidance reports were getting with a grain of salt . What do you think . Trust but verify. Some caution is absolutely advised, as you say, when you get concern about whether expressed by a retailer, you are wondering well, we all have to go outside. But when we see the ism manufacturing number move into contraction territory, thats real. All those indicators were negative. Neil all right. Thank you very much. Final word on the subject. Also, getting some news, more hawkish comments coming out of the iranians. Dont even think about targeting them. A warning now that its allout war if we do. After this. Experience the style, craftsmanship, and technology that have made the rx the leading luxury suv of all time. Lease the 2019 rx 350 for 399 a month for 36 months. Experience amazing at your lexus dealer. Neil all right. Weve still got that power struggle going on in israel. Benny gantz declaring victory. The center right party that says that Benjamin Netanyahus time has come and gone. Fox news on the latest back and forth on all of this from jerusalem. Trey, whats going on now . Reporter after extremely tight elections, israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to the numbers we have now, will lose two seats, be two seats down from his main opponent, benny gantz of the blue and white party. These two candidates actually met today for the first time in months at a ceremony marking the anniversary of former Prime Minister peress death. In between them was israeli president rivlin, who will give one candidate the nod, likely next week, to Start Building a government. Until then, both gantz and netanyahu will continue meeting with smaller parties to ask for support. Netanyahu, who is facing charges of corruption and bribery, could face jail time if he is not elected Prime Minister and able to pass an immunity law. The urgency was seen today as he called for a unity government with his main rival, something he campaigned against doing. Meanwhile, if gantz gets the support of former defense minister lieberman, who will control eight Israeli Knesset seats, he will increase his chance to become Prime Minister. Translator i want to set a liberal unity government headed by me, a government that will manifest the will of the people and fulfill promises to the public. Reporter to give you a sense of the pressure netanyahu is facing here in israel, he has canceled his annual trip to the u. N. General assembly in new york next week as he tries to look for new ways to outmaneuver his main opponent, benny gantz. Neil thank you, my friend, very much. Meanwhile, mixed messages from the pentagon as to who was behind these attacks on saudi arabia. You might recall the secretary of state mike pompeo said all signs point to iran. The pentagon not so sure. Those mixed reads, these are the people advising the president how to respond as well. Hudson Institute Senior fellow rebecca heinrich. What do you make of the defense and state department on different pages here . Well, secretary of defense esper is the new secretary of defense and i think we are seeing him defer a lot of questions to the state department to take the lead on this. But as soon as you come out and attribute and blame, then you need to respond in some way. I dont think that the government is clear about how we want to respond, which of our allies and partners are going to be with the United States if we do pursue a particular response. Thats why you are seeing a little bit of a dance and backandforth. At some point once they come to the conclusion this is the path we want to take, they have to be on the same page with one united voice and explain how they know that it was the iranians in some greater detail that we can actually get a coalition to go in and take care of the problem. Neil you talk about a coalition. The president has argued as recently as last week saying whatever we do, im sorry, this week, that its got to be proportionate. In other words, if they take out saudi oil fields, maybe we entertain the same with iran. I think that was the gist of what he said. Obviously that would boomerang on the western world. Hes got to be careful. How do you think this all goes down . Yeah. I do think that on this particular this particular response, the saudis do have to take the lead. This was their oil, this was their country, their soil, so we cant get out ahead of what the saudis are willing to do. The saudis seem to be a little bit uncertain about taking the diplomatic lead, being the ones, the real face of the military response, but again, this is their hterritory, their soverein nation. A major theme of the Trump Administration has been these are sovereign nations, so sovereign nations have to defend themselves. This is why we sold the sachudi so much military weaponry so they can provide defense of themselves. Then the u. S. Government, obviously we do have some interest in the Global Energy market but as we become more energy independent, it isnt a direct line to what is clearly american interests, its more of a jagged line which is why we need to have a spoupporting rol not being out front, and letting the saudis take the lead. Neil rebeki have my panel with. We always talk about black swan developments, something out of the blue that changes the tenor of the market. Is this that . I dont think so. A lot of times with black swans, they happen because we dont see them coming. So with whats happening right now, i think right now its contained so lets leave it there. Could it mushroom into Something Else . Yes. Could it mushroom to allout war . It could. But if its just as it is right now, then no. Doesnt that play into how the response should be put together . If you are, if you are responding in a proportional way as the president suggested, what does iran do after that . Because youre not necessarily dealing with a rational actor. What if you respond in a proportional way, then supposedly its 11 on the scorecard but that doesnt mean iran leaves it there. You could make the situation worse. Right . Thats right. Thats why i think the military planners are looking at secondary effects and what happens and what are we prepared to help the saudis defend against, if it is the saudis that are taking the lead. I would think if you are the saudi government, you are thinking about proportionality, you are thinking about attacking again the equivalent for the iranians their mechanism, their Oil Refineries or Something Like that which were already sanctioning so much, which is why they are lashing out to try to gain leverage so the United States drops sanctions before we come to the negotiating table which this president has said he isnt going to do. The other response i would say is supposedly i have heard rumors that we were watching the iranians prepare to launch this attack which is why a piece of the evidence we know that it was them. If thats the case, we can help the saudis target whatever weapons they used to launch, whether its groundbased cruise missiles or uavs, if we saw them before they launched them, we know how to reach out and destroy those. That could be another proportional response. Neil you wouldnt be hitting oil, you would be hitting drones in that case, right . Drones or if they were cruise missiles, which is another important point to know that the amount of damage that these cruise missiles if they were cruise missiles and uavs caused to these vulnerable Oil Refineries, americans and our allies need to make sure we deploy the right groundbased and missile Defense Systems, air Defense Systems, and that they have 360 degree radar so that we can see whats coming and be able to provide some level of protection whenever they have such enormous strategic impact if these cruise missiles can target them. Neil that might avoid the oil shakeup. Thank you very, very much. I appreciate it, as always. We are getting some more details on this American Airlines mechanic tampering with a plane before takeoff. Apparently he has some isis videos and stuff like that. After this. We trust usaa more than any other company out there. They give us excellent customer service, every time. Our 18 year old was in an accident. Usaa took care of her car rental, and getting her car towed. All i had to take care of was making sure that my daughter was ok. If i met another veteran, and they were with another insurance company, i would tell them, you need to join usaa because they have better rates, and better service. Were the gomez family. Were the rivera family. Were the kirby family, and we are usaa members for life. Get your Auto Insurance quote today. Neil all right. That didnt take long. Nike has dropped Antonio Brown amid Sexual Assault allegations. I guess not a shock. What do you make of this . Its always interesting when we cover these types of stories in the past about how Companies Make decisions about who to stick with and who not to as a professional athlete or celebrity or whatever the case may be. You know, to be overly cynical about it, i would doubt as good a player Antonio Brown is a terrific football player, i would doubt even in his best days that Antonio Brown is selling a lot of sneakers, selling a lot of apparel for nike in the same way that other troubled athletes, obviously different types of trouble in the past. Tiger woods and others. Neil different case. Better for the business, in other words. Easier decision for them . I think so. Neil do you buy that . I do. It seems like they do take a stand on certain cases and not so much a stand in other cases. You know, its their business. They have the right to do it how they choose. But he has a lot of issues that seem to continually pop up. But i dont know that anythings been proven yet or any real charges neil patriots are still with him. He wins games or helps win games. If you help win games, you will be forgiven in sports. To nikes point of view, again, i dont know the analysis of what they do but i doubt hes selling a lot of apparel directly. The way hes helping the patriots. Knowing coach belichick, if there was something proven that he did wrong, he wouldnt be on the team. Neil interesting. All right. We will follow that, obviously. Meanwhile, investigators now believe this American Airlines mechanic, remember the guy who was allegedly sabotaging the plane . Apparently he might have had ties to isis. Phil keating has more from miami. Reporter until yesterday, this case never involved any allegation of a terrorismrelated motive, yet u. S. Prosecutors are now suggesting that, laying out their evidence in court yesterday and the result, bond denied. The American Airlines mechanic accused of sabotaging a commercial airliner with 150 passengers on board, had a detention hearing yesterday in the federal magistrate ordered abdul alani to remain behind bars, saying she has evidence to suggest he could be sympathetic to terrorists. In court, prosecutors revealed that fbi agents found isis videos on his phone showing graphic killings and that he forwarded one video to somebody with the urging for allah to take revenge against all nonmuslims. According to a coworker, alani told him his brother was in iraq and a member of isis. He flew to baghdad in march to visit which the fbi says he lied about. In july, the miami to nassau flight turned back before taking off after an error light with the Navigation System appeared in the cockpit. According to the pilot, without a functioning Navigation System it would have resulted in a crash. Defense attorneys say that is not true, as a second Navigation System still worked and the government is simply blowing this case out of proportion. His family flew into miami for yesterdays bond meeting, saying nothing to the media. The 60yearold was born in iraq and is a naturalized u. S. Citizen. He is charged with one count of willfully damaging, destroying or disabling an aircraft. He admits he sabotaged the plane. Did it again yesterday in court, telling investigators he was upset with stalled contract negotiations between his union and american, and he thought if he could force the plane back to fix the mechanical problem he would be the mechanic getting more work, thus more overtime, which in fact, did happen. If convicted, he faces a maximum prison sentence of 20 years. He will be back downtown miami in u. S. Courthouse for his arraignment. He will have to enter a plea of guilty or not guilty, and we will be there. Neil thank you, my friend. Phil keating on the latest developments here. Meantime, if you want to get strikers to start solving the gm worker outage, you could just take away their Health Benefits and force the issue. They just did that. After this. Limu emu doug and now for their service to the community, we present limu emu doug with this key to the city. [ applause ] its an honor to tell you that Liberty Mutual customizes your Car Insurance so you only pay for what you need. And now we need to get back to work. [ applause and band playing ] only pay for what you need. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Frstill, we never stoppedss wmaking it stronger. E. Faster. Smarter. Because to be the best, is to never ever stop making it better. The 2020 cclass family. Lease the c 300 sedan for just 429 a month at your local mercedesbenz dealer. Mercedesbenz. The best or nothing. Audreys on it. Eating right . On it staying active . On it. 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Do not take jardiance if you are on dialysis or have severe kidney problems. Taking jardiance with a sulfonylurea or insulin may cause low blood sugar. Lower a1c and lower risk of a fatal heart attack . On it. With jardiance. Ask your doctor about jardiance. The type 2 diabetes pill thats on it. Learn more at jardiance. Com neil all right. This gm strike now reaching day four. Gm is reportedly, reportedly because this has been disputed in some counts, dropping health care for those striking workers. Grady trimble is in detroit with the latest. Grady . Reporter yeah, we will get to that but first, we are starting to see the ripple effects of this strike. Navistar international, that Company Makes trucks, commercial trucks for general motors, we are hearing reportedly that they are going to have to stop production of those trucks in the coming days if this strike continues. The problem is, according to reports, theyre not getting the parts they need to make those trucks. Now, separately, this whole ordeal is becoming more and more political. Senator Amy Klobuchar is the latest of the president ial candidates to stop by. She brought doughnuts and coffee to the strikers and told them shes standing with them while talks continue. In those talks, we are told a main Sticking Point has been gms production in mexico. While gm points out it has more than three times the number of employees here in the states as it does in mexico, it does make many popular models here that americans then buy. When i asked the senator about that, she took the opportunity to take a swipe at the president. Part of this is the president claims he was going to be this master deal maker and be able to open more plants, not have them close. That hasnt happened. The bigger issue today is how these companies are going to pay these workers. Thats why theyre striking. Thats about their benefits and then its about their health care and that is about their wages. Thats what this is about today. Reporter as you mentioned, gm stopped paying for health care for striking workers. We are told now that means the union has to pick up the tab, further draining its emergency strike fund and causing confusion and concern among the employees. Neil . Neil grady, thank you very, very much. Mike murphy, what do you think of this, playing hardball here . They are. Both sides will dig in but eventually a deal will get done. Gm needs the workers to go to work and make their cars and the workers need their paycheck to earn a living. It will get done. Both sides will give a little bit and a deal will get done. Right now, i think you feel for the workers and you feel for their needs and their needs have to get met, so if more manufacturing comes back into the u. S. , if thats ultimately what its about, a lot of times with unions theres different pieces, different bargaining things you are bargaining for. If its about jobs coming back to the u. S. , i support it. Neil you think about it, karen, you are an expert on this, lot of Small Businesses are attached to this in one way, shape or form. What hits these workers hits them. If it goes on much further. It hits gm, it hits navistar, all these companies. They have small suppliers who are impacted by all this. It seems like theres enough pressure on everyone now between the unions, gm and everyone else as mike said to get a deal. I think a deal will get done. Neil the health care thing. That is hardball. That definitely is. Now with the union, if they have to pick up this tab, obviously its another incentive for everyone to get back to the table and get a deal done. Big picture, though, we talked about this the last few days, it is not as big a story as it was 20 years ago. In 1998, the numbers showed that the gm strike shaved Something Like half a point off the gdp. Whereas gm is a much smaller company, fewer workers now. So not that its not a big story, its something we need to watch but from a macro perspective, its certainly a smaller story than it was then. Neil know what i wonder about . I get that, you know, it isnt what it would have been and has in the past been, but i am curious about whether its true, the attack line that the workers, the strikers, are using that they have not been able to share in the profits of gm since it was rescued. I thought they were sharing, just they werent getting as much as they thought, and now as the companys fortunes turn south, now they want whatever, im not here to take sides, im wondering if that hurts their argument now. I dont think it does. These are mostly Blue Collar Workers that are looking for a bigger slice of the pie. Its not neil they do get a percentage of profit sharing, right . They argue its too low. They want more. They want to go back to the table. They negotiate a contract, and the contract is signed, now they are looking to renegotiate. I tend to, again, i was mentioning off camera, my father was part of the sandhogs union. I support from that standpoint but a lot of times, Everyone Wants more but sometimes theres not enough more to go around. If its fair neil would they have been wiser doing this even a couple years ago . So its a very large union, they go out there and want to renegotiate. Im more from the stance of if you feel you are not getting paid enough in your job, you can go find a better paying job elsewhere, if thats what you want. A lot of times its not necessarily the Parent Company or the big corporations job to meet your demands. If it doesnt work for you, in this country you can work elsewhere. You talk about economic timing. I wonder if the political timing is more on their side. I was struck by what grady reported with Amy Klobuchar and all these Democratic Candidates for president coming out, showing their face and obviously traditionally over the years, been big supporters of the unions. But so on these issues that we are talking about is this president , right . In many ways it reminds me of the trade discussions we have that who is more against gm moving to mexico and all the rest than President Trump. So you could argue that both sides of the aisle politically, at least on many of the issues, seem to be on the side of the workers. I dont know how if at all that will affect the dynamic but it is interesting. Neil guys, thank you very much. We will watch this very closely. We are getting differing reports as to all strikers, whether their Health Insurance is being taken away. Theres a separate report i believe in the detroit news that has some. Bottom line, they are playing hardball. Meanwhile, microsoft boosting its dividend, in and out of being a trillion Dollar Company following the likes of apple. Thats giving the stock a major boost. It was helping the dow a lot more. There are some other issues at play here. After this. At fidelity, we believe your money should always be working harder. Thats why your cash automatically goes into a Money Market Fund when you open a new account. Just another reminder of the value youll find at fidelity. Open an account today. Of the value youll find at fidelity. Im working to treat every car like i treat mine. Adp helps airtech automotive streamline payroll and hr, so welby torres can achieve what hes working for. Have you lost weight . Of course i have ever since i started renting from national. Because national lets me lose the wait at the counter. And choose any car in the aisle. And i dont wait when i return, thanks to drop go. At national, i can lose the wait. And keep it off. Looking good, patrick. I know. vo go national. Go like a pro. Neil all right. We know what took the wind out of the markets sails, Donald Trumps key adviser on china, michael pillsbury, saying the president is ready to escalate the trade war if a deal is not agreed to soon. Apparently that would include upping the tariff ante, if you will. Gerri willis, two words, not good, right . Gerri not good at all. We have lost about 60 points. We went briefly negative during the break here. We are back in positive territory. I can tell you what traders are talking to me about is a headline in the china global times that the chinese are not as anxious for a deal as the white house thought they were. So when that came out, and it came out on one of the Wire Services specifically for traders, those stocks started going down and everybody started talking about this headline. This is something that always moves the market. Let me get you to microsoft, hitting an alltime high today after the Company Announced it plans to buy back as much as 40 billion in stock and raise its dividend 11 , maintaining its record of sharing its cash forward with shareholders. Shares popping, making microsoft the biggest publicly traded company with a market cap of , 1,075,000. The company will raise dividend five cents a share to 11 above the prior quarters payout. This marks the third time a buyback plan has been authorized this big. Meanwhile, airbnb looking to ipo they ca next year. The company is yet to file a public registration statement. We do know it plans to come to market sometime in 2020. Many expect the company to come to market as a direct listing. We have seen that before. Notably, airbnb has said its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortiization making it very unusual down here. Neil apologize for the confusion on that graphic. It made it look like the dividend was going up from five cents to 51 cents a share. Represents about a 10 increase. I want to be very clear. That would have been a big number to go from 5 to 51 but its not. Just calm down. You are doing well. Just maybe not nearly as well as that graphic intimated. More after this. At comcast, we didnt build the nations largest gigspeed network just to make businesses run faster. We built it to help them go beyond. Because beyond risk. Welcome to the neighborhood, guys. There is reward. Beyond work and life. Who else could he be . There is the moment. Beyond technology. There is human ingenuity. Every day, comcast business is helping businesses go beyond the expected, to do the extraordinary. Take your business beyond. Neil all right. It took some of the steam out of the market here. We are getting more details in about whether these chinese talks look promising or they dont. A lot of comments to the press. Back with Connell Mcshane on that. You are learning some new developments. Gerri alluded to this. Two guys have an inside track supposedly, investors think they do, thats why you get reaction to what pillsbury says and also neil hes like a trade negotiator. Yeah, and also, you know, is close to the president , the administration, is on the inside on these talks. The editor in chief of the global times now has become this huge market mover, everything the guy tweets, and it was 20 minutes ago neil supposed to represent the views of china. A mouthpiece for the government there. The last part of this tweet is what got people. He said that officials in the u. S. Easily misread chinas good will, they think it shows weakness. He says china doesnt like talking tough before negotiations but this is the part, he says, and i quote, i know chinas not anxious to reach a deal as the u. S. Side thought. Thats what people look at. They say well, okay, maybe they dont want to cut a deal or quote unquote, give in on these issues, some sort of interim or shortterm deal, things that have been talked about the last few weeks. Neil so as if we needed any more reminders that trade dictates the mood of these markets. It does. I think for people at home watching your show, they need to realize that these 80 point or 100 point or 300 point swings in the market are being driven by algorithmic trading. They are programs that react, buy or sell based on words. If you are managing your own portfolio at home, dont try to trade based on twitter headlines, because you are going to end up losing. I think the Bigger Picture here is that a deal hopefully will get done, some sort of a trade deal and if it doesnt, i think, you know, the u. S. Economy is doing well, the stock market is 1 off alltime highs so you know, if we have to continue down this road, i guess we can do it. Neil what do you think, karen . Well, i think the emotional reaction of the marketplace responding to a lot of noise right now. Neil its uncanny. Its like this abusive relationship we have with an issue. I know. I know. You know, i just think, you know, its going to continue. Who has the upper hand in these trade negotiations, right . Neil who does . I still think the u. S. Does have the upper hand in terms of our, you know, sort of the state of our economy right now, and i do think there will be a deal that will be done. Who knows why the chinese may be doing this and our friend, you know, leading up to the anniversary there in china neil october 1. So but i think neil this is going on as the negotiators, subnegotiators are yapping, right . They are in washington now. Mike would probably know more about this, i wonder whether the market continues to underestimate, sometimes we talk about the nodeal brexit, if the market continues to kind of assume theres a deal to be made and doesnt give enough credence to the idea that no deal by the 2020 election is a real possibility. Obviously people think thats possible but i dont know if the percentage is high still. A lot of times the market will talk about things like y2k and brexit and these big Upcoming Events that really are driving the market movement. I think ultimately, the market is driven by corporate earnings and profits by u. S. Corporations, and as long as those continue to hold steady or increase, i think were good where we are. Neil until this is a worry. Is it for you a worry . I think its companyspecific when you get to that point because fed ex no longer delivers for amazon. You walk down the street, you see amazon boxes everywhere and fed ex isnt handling that anymore. They may need the u. S. china or China Business more than certain other companies. I think ultimately, if you talk about the s p 500, there are plenty of those 500 companies that are doing great right now. Neil what do you think . Well, you know, again, it all goes back to Business Investment. We did have that drop in Business Investment for the first time in three years last quarter, and if you continue to have this uncertainty, it is going to negatively impact neil but is it as big as its been portrayed to be . It depends. Its sectorspecific. Its business perspective. But i do think, you know, just the overall competence of the business sector and how they drive Business Investment is just very important, trade is a driver of that in terms of access to the markets and trade in general. That brings up a really interesting point about fed ex, right, because thats one of many examples about how the world is different now, and sometimes you talked about this earlier, how these historical norms or comparisons we want to use to say whats going to happen next may not apply, whereas fed ex has always been a leading indicator of world trade, global trade, that maybe because of its companyspecific issues neil it scares people to believe in things that disproportionately impact some of the transports that it makes people think oh, my gosh. Yeah, i know everyone doesnt want to go down the road and say its different this time, but you know, in some cases it really is different this time because the world changes. Amazon wasnt there when we made these comparisons in the past. I dont know. Full disclosure, we bought fed ex yesterday on the selloff that came to the stock. But you dont get a lot of guarantees in this business. I will give you one. If we do get a trade deal, the market will have something we will have Something Else to talk about, another concern for the market. Neil if the president were to up the ante and say theyre doing this, im going to do this, then its a selffulfilling prophesy. It is. Im saying go the other route. If we get an agreement there will be Something Else out there. Neil right. Youre right. You are still bullish. Nothing has changed on that front. Until something changes, im bullish. Neil thats not answering my question. Nothing has changed. Headlines changing but right now i think the u. S. Economy is what im focused on. Its doing well. Neil you like the overall macro picture . Yeah. I do. I like main street. We deal with entrepreneurs and Small Business owners. Their confidence is still very very high. And their financials look very good. Their biggest problem continues to be the labor market and finding the people that they need to expand their businesses. Neil unthinkable nice problem to have. All right. Final word on this subject. I want to thank karen, connell, mike. Great job, all. We are still keeping an eye on this. The markets are algorithmically reassessing that and saying what are we all worried about. After this. Imagine traveling hasslefree with your golf clubs. Now you can, with shipsticks. Com no more lugging your clubs through the airport or risk having your clubs lost or damaged by the airlines. With just a few clicks or a phone call, well pick up and deliver your clubs ontime, guaranteed, for as low as 39. 99. Shipsticks. Com saves you time and money. Make it simple. Make it ship sticks. Shipsticks. Com saves you time and money. [upbeat action music] pilot were going to be on the tarmac for another 45 minutes or so. Neil all right. Not as much of a worry, the dow down 33 point. Were getting constructive talk what the chinese delegation plans to do when it is here. Including visiting some farms that could be good. Charles, good to see. Thank you, neil. Im charles payne. This is making money. More evidence that the economy remains on fire. The weakest link, manufacturing and housing appears to be turning the corner. We have the experts here to break down investing once we cleared those milestones because new highs usually beget new highs. The showdown countdown is on. We have congressman matt gaetz if congress will do what it can to keep the government open. Maybe some want it closed t would be open only two month. Trump versus california again. What the president is doing to stop the statero