Joining me right now is the chief economist for jpmorgan chase, michael faroli. Good to see you, michael. My pleasure. Maria let me get your take in terms of the broad economy, how do you see things . Right. So right now theres a lot of crosscurrents. We do think Second Quarter growth is a little softer than First Quarter growth. The hard data looks okay, right . That alone wouldnt call for a rate cut, but there are some worrying clouds on the horizon. We have seen particularly business surveys that have softened some, so there is some concern that the trade tensions may be contributing to a little bit of caution on the part of businesses particularly with respect to capital spending. Maria mike, do you think were going to see a china deal . I doubt it. [laughter] i mean, look, i think were all guessing here, of course. None of us can read the minds of either leaders of the country, but right now the headlines dont sound particularly encouraging. Some of the issues seem rather intractable particularly as they relate to changing chinese laws which may be one of the demands of u. S. Negotiators. So, again, hard to know, but were not the really hopeful. Our baseline here is that the status quo continues which is that the 25 tariffs on 250 billion of chinese goods remains intact. But i think there is a risk probably growing that we see the 25 rate also imposed on the remaining 300 and some billion dollars of chinese imports. Maria that would certainly be a bigger negative, i think, for markets if we were to see the president put that 25 on the remaining 325 billion in chinese imports. At the same time, it feels like the chinese economy is getting impacted more than the u. S. Economy. Talk to me about what metrics you look at to identify where we are in this expansion. Right. Is so i think thats right, that the chinese economy is getting hurt, and i think Global Growth generally is going to be a headwind for the u. S. Numbers out of europe also look quite disappointing recently. So the global backdrop is not supportive. What is supportive right now for the u. S. Is that the consumer looks to be, you know, still the locomotive of the expansion, and that has, you know, we see that in Consumer Sentiment remains near expansion highs. Job growth has generally been solid. There have been some hints that that may be slowing in terms of the latest employment numbers, the jobless claim numbers. Sends some worrying signs that so far the consumer has really been the locomotive. And so the concern here is that that business caution, if that translates into less hiring, then we cant count on the consumer being the locomotive. But so far i think things look still okay in spite of the headwinds from the Global Economy and from the trade uncertainty. Growth will be almost certainly slower this year than last year, the question is how much itll slow down. Were looking for something, you know, in the for the remainer of the year in the mid to high 1s in terms of gdp growth which is not, you know, again, last year we were doing 3 , so that would be a ten down. Maria michael, what are you telling client about this market . I feel like theres a sense on wall street that whether you like this president or not, you know hes focused on the stock market, and you know hes focused on the economy, so hes not going to allow those two things to go too far off track. Am i on track . I think thats right. There is the perception, i think correctly so, that the president does watch stocks and wont do something that is too damaging to stocks. I think there is a bit of a tricky issue here right now which is that the Interest Rate markets are pricing in a very aggressive fed easing which would suggest, in my opinion, that the fed would have to see something worrisome in the economy whereas stocks being near alltime highs dont seem to perceive that worry in the economy. Now, it could just be that the fed cuts aggressively, that helps growth and stocks are okay. But i think if the feds cutting aggressively, theres probably some underlying weakness that has some real momentum to it. So i think youre right in saying that the stock market has a backstop in both the president and the fed, but right now it feels like one of the two, Interest Rates or stocks, may be not sending the same message. So presumably, one of the two will be wrong, ultimately. Maria right. I presume youre not expecting the Federal Reserve to cut Interest Rates at its upcoming meeting. Yeah, thats right. For a few reasons, one is we havent seen the growth slowdown in the hard numbers yet. Its somewhat of a forecast. Second, we do have the g20 meeting the week after, so you could have, you know, there are potential good scenarios that could come out of that maria thats true. The fed may want to wait and see what happens with those meetings as well as what happens with the june data. And then if, you know, things are actually softening, theres a meeting in late july. So it would seem like waiting a few weeks to get some certainty around whats going on wouldnt be such a problem for the fed. And also they really havent been signaling, you know, that much concern about growth. Powell did say last week that theyre monitoring the situation and will act as needed, but, you know, theyre not really ringing the alarm bells. We think they probably hold next week but signal that theyre, you know, obviously really to act if things deteriorate. Maria great to have your insights, michael, thank you. Chief economy at jpmorgan. My interview with Larry Silverstein is up next. Stay with us. 18 years after the tragedy of 9 11, Larry Silverstein has helped bring downtown back from the brink. What were the Lessons Learned from that fateful day . Our lives changed, and changed totally. Maria goes oneonone with the real estate giant when wall street returns. That have made the rx crathe leading luxury suvogy of all time. Lease the 2019 rx 350 for 399 month for 36 months. Experience amazing at your lexus dealer. But some give their clients cookie cutter portfolios. Fisher investments tailors portfolios to your goals and needs. Some only call when they have something to sell. Fisher calls regularly so you stay informed. And while some advisors are happy to earn commissions whether you do well or not. Fisher investments fees are structured so we do better when you do better. Maybe thats why most of our clients come from other money managers. Fisher investments. Clearly better money management. Maria welcome back. In july of 2001, real estate executive Larry Silverstein completed the largest real estate transaction in the history of new york city, a 99year lease on the World Trade Center. Only six weeks after signing the lease, the towers were destroyed in the horrific events of 9 11. In the 17 years since the attack, silverstein has helped lead a resurgence in downtown developments, Building ThreeOffice Buildings on the world trade site with a fourth in development. I sat down with Larry Silverstein at 3 World Trade Center. I spoke to him about the challenges of rebuilding downtown after the terrorists attacked us. So were sitting here, and were overlooking the 9 11 memorial and the museum. That was where the north tower was, right . And thats where the south tower was. Correct, correct. Maria larry, take me back to 2001. It was july of 01 when you completed the largest real estate transaction in new york history. You signed a 99year lease on the 10. 6 million square feet World Trade Center for 3. 25 billion. And a couple of months later, we had the attack on us that changed our world forever. Yes, it did. It did. And so seeing these buildings come down was a tumultuous experience. The loss of life that resulted from it was horrendous. And we were all in a state of total shock. But not just here in new york, but a total shock around the globe. Maria across the world. Across the world, right . Maria yeah. So our lives changed and changed totally and forever. And so focused on security, focus on how not to build highrise Office Buildings, we learned so much by looking at what happened to those twin tower, what caused them to collapse. And as a result, weve designed a whole new era of structure in these highrise Office Buildings today that make them the safest buildings ever built in america. Maria thats really interesting. What were some of the things that were needed to put in there to make them even safer today . The use of hardened concrete, the use of 12,000pound concrete. Its the densest form of concrete you can utilize, you can pour. And what we did is designed into these buildings in their core, in the center 12,000pound concrete sheer walls that are 4 feet in thickness. Right . Theyre indestructible, because each floor was impregnated with 14,000 pounds of reinforcing bars in that 12,000pound concrete wall. I mean, impenetrable. That surrounds the core of each of these buildings, and the core houses the elevators, the life safety systems, the sprinklers, communication systems. Is what youve got today is a completely different design than what existed before 9 11. Maria we are now at the one year mark for 3 World Trade Center, the building that were in right now. Its got to feel good for you. It feels very satisfying. Im very proud. Maria tell me about the last year in terms of finding the tenants, you know, making sure to come as close to filled up as possible. You were somewhat surprised that you had such demand, right . I was surprised because theres a, theres no shortage of office space going up in manhattan today. But much to my surprise and delight is the fact that we had, we had or [inaudible] come along, looked at our trading floors, and i said five. They said, well have all five. Now to have an Advertising Company take five trading floors and several floors of office space, they are the anchor tenant for the building. Surprised me totally. Because the assumption we made is that a Financial Company would come and require the trading floors for whom we built and designed them. Not the case. So they came in, looked at it, took it all, and its a reflection of the fact that today technology has taken such an immensely Important Role in all of our lives. And so theyre dependent upon technology as are most Major Corporate users today. Most of the Office Buildings in new york, which are 80 years of age, 70 years of age, 60 years of age, trying to retrofit those buildings with technological requirements is almost impossible. Totally inconvenient and hugely costly. Is when you put those technological advances into these buildings, day one under construction, its a piece of cake. Maria thats incredible. So tell me about the technology and what leasers want today in an office space in terms of tech. They want every conceivable technological advance available to them. They want to be able to use it. And so probably just a question of time until the 5g Technology Takes over from where todays technology is. But it gives them access to so much, its surreal, in such a short period of time, its almost hard to conceive whats going to happen went when 5g comes long. Maria more of my oneonone interview with Larry Silverstein coming up. New york City Real Estate is the most sought after in the world, so whos putting big money in the big apple . The chinese have pulled back. The oligarchs seem to have vanished. More with marias oneonone with Larry Silverstein when uhoh, looks like someones still nervous about buying a new house. Is it that obvious . Yes it is. You know, maybe youd worry less if you got geico to help with your homeowners insurance. I didnt know geico could helps with homeowners insurance. Yep, theyve been doing it for years. What are you doing . Big steve . Thanks, man. There he is. Get to know geico and see how much you could save on homeowners and renters insurance. Heannouncer more details incoming involving volkswagen and the growing scandal. Dissatisfied customers filing complaints against the german auto maker. 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But the important thing is it worked, we got it done. Or almost done. Theres one building left to go. Thats tower two. But these buildings have held up, and its testimony to fact that if you build it, they will come, right . You build welllocated building, good quality design and priced reasonably, theyll come. Maria theres also been a resurgence of downtown. So youre not just seeing this area up and coming, but youre seeing the remaining areas around here, the nearby areas, because people see activity once again downtown new york. And as a result, you have a tripling of the residential population down here. I think weve built 8 or 9,000 hotel rooms down here. Maria broadly speaking, how do you see Real Estate Today . Was i know in the because i know in the boom days years ago you had the russians, the middle easterners the chinese putting big money into new york. Have the chinese pulled back given the fight with the u. S the chinese have pulled back. The oligarchs seem to have vanished. And so interestingly, if you look at the funds maria the sovereign wealth funds . The sovereign wealth funds with multiple trillions of dollars of money to invest in hard assets, real estate, anytime i get to speak to them, to heads of those funds, the principals, they always say i always can them, where do you want to put your money . They always say, united states, because its safe. They know its safe. They know we have a m of laws a system of laws, that real estates protected, their investments are protected. Then the next question is where in the united states. New york is their first request. Where in new york . Manhattan. [laughter] number one. Then they move to washington, they move to boston, they move to los angeles, other parts of the country. Maria so what are you seeing then . Theres all this conversation happening right now that a recession is on the horizon. Look at the inverted yield curve, the Federal Reserve just recently said, look, we stand ready to act to cut rates. Do you see recession on the horizon . Honestly, i dont. But then again, im a little bit of a optimist. I tend to look at things with rosecolored glasses. But as i also look around, i see much of america doing well. The economy, much of the economy is strong and doing well. Producing, i mean, look at the job market. The job market, its really nothing short of remarkable. In addition to which i think were on the precipice of doing some remarkable things in this country. Ultimately, there will be a solution for infrastructure. And when thats offered, they will produce billions of dollars, trillions of dollars in Infrastructure Development around the country. Theres nothing like infrastructure to stimulate the economy. Its always been the case, will be the case again. And, certainly are, the infrastructure in this country desperately needs doing. Maria what about the Federal Reserve . Do you think theyre going to cut rates this year . I dont think its going to be necessary, but if they do, id have no violent objection. [laughter] maria sure. Well, youve got to raise money, and you want to see low rates. Well, low rates are, obviously, very conducive to increased Business Activity on which were all dependent. Maria but tell me what overseeing in terms of the economic backdrop right now. I see an economic backdrop that is stable. I see it remaining where it is, i see the inexhorrible push for inexorable push for health care. I think thats going to increase with time which will benefit economic activity. I think manufacturing slowly but surely, i think youre going to see an increase in manufacturing in the united states. And i think the trade wars that are going on today, the issues with china and mexico and many of the allied countries, i think those will ultimately dissipate. Maria what to you worry about, the sort of red flags to say, okay, i think were seeing cracks in this economic boom because, you know, we are going on ten years of this economic expansion. The fact that were going on ten years, i dont think of itself is controlling. I think, you know, look around and whats, what i think is most troubling is the tendency e toward focusing on america. Globalization, i think, is enormously important for our future. Maria always has been. Its brought stability to world after the two world wars. Globalizations made all the difference in the world. So go away from that, i think, is not rational, not beneficial to anybodys best interests. So i think ultimately people are going to become cognizant of that reality and a new election will be coming to us in 2020, i think it will, it could result in significant changes in some of the policies that we see being implemented today. I think those changes could be very important for america. I mean, we are looking at, were looking at Climate Change that has enormously destructive impact on our lives. Thats got to be, thats got to be reflected in what we do for tomorrow. It will take major amounts of capital, but its going to be a necessity to do it. Maria do you feel like your tenants are this is something thats very important to them, they want to make sure that the buildings are retrofitted in a certain way to offset some of these things that youre talking about, including Climate Change . Well, Climate Change is enormously important, so what youve got is a constant focus on securing these buildings. Because flooding is a concern, but these buildings have been developed to point where theyre not subjected to flooding problems as they were in that last hurricane that hit new york. Maria our thanks to harry silverstein. Dont go anywhere, more wall street right after this. So chantix can help you quit slow turkey. Rkey. 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Coming up next weekend right here on the frame, danny meyer, my special guest, to talk about the empire that he has credited across created across the country. Also join sunday morning futures on the Fox News Channel this weekend at 10 a. M. Eastern. And i hope youll start smart every weekday on fox business, 69 a. M. Eastern for mornings with maria. All next week well be in cannes, france, live. Thatll do it for us this weekend. Have a great rest of the weekend, everybody. Again next time. Gerry hello and welcome to wall street journal at large. The race for the democratic president ial nomination kicks into high gear this month when the candidates well, most of them at any rate take a part in the first televised debates. Former Vice President joe biden continues to be the bookies and the pollsters favorites, but its early days, and theres plenty of reason to think this campaign is very much wide open. Now, according to a recent polling average from real clear politics, biden leads the field with 33 , 16 points ahead of bernie sanders. None of the other 20