Our time is up, well see in a week, stay with espresso, we have a lot of interesting things. The search for 16yearold danylo pyatnytsky, who disappeared at the end of last year under very mysterious circumstances, has been going on for the fourth month. In slovakia, where he lived and studied with september 2023, looking for a boy, his mother. It is even hard to imagine what a woman has experienced during these months of unknowns, in what state she is in, but mrs. Anastasia is doing Everything Possible to find her son or find out at least some information that can help in the search. I am appealing to all concerned citizens, if anyone. Can help in the search for my missing son pyatnytskyi danylo , born on august 24, 2006. Unfortunately, there is still no information. He disappeared on december 22, 2023. Danis mother told us what he liked studying at a university abroad. He called her and said that he was fine. However, on december 22, 2023, the connection with. Was lost and since then nothing is known about him, he did not say anything at all before his disappearance, at 12 oclock in the afternoon we talked with him, he says mom, i havent slept for a day almost, he says i want to sleep, i will sleep for a couple of hours and call you, i called him in the evening on the same day, his phone was already turned off. As soon as we received a message about the boys disappearance, we immediately contacted our colleagues. From the International Federation of missing children europe, who in turn posted information about danilo on their internet portal. A request was also immediately made to the police of slovakia. In addition, some slovak public organizations joined the search. Here, for example, is a photo about the search for a guy on the website of one of them. We are doing Everything Possible to find danya, but unfortunately there is no information about him at the moment. The boys mother also revealed some very suspicious details. Danylo studied at bratislava at the Comenius University at the faculty of management, and lived in a center for children and families in the village of bernolakovo, which is about an hours drive from bratislava. However, as it turned out, in the room where danya lived, after his disappearance, clothes and scattered things were found. I was informed that his foreign passport was torn up in his. Room, beat up everything he could, although this does not resemble my sons behavior at all, i dont even know what should have happened for him to behave like that. The boys mother and no idea where may be her son, does not understand at all how this could happen, but assumes that danya could not have contacted this company. Moreover, after his disappearance, it became known that since november he had not attended school, although he did not say anything to my mother about it, i dont know, we were already thinking, maybe in some company, he, i dont know, he has some friends, maybe there were very good ones, not very decent ones, because i talked to a girl who studied with him in zaporizhzhia, in our city, they graduated from the gymnasium, and she also went to this university, only she has a different department, a different faculty, and she told me that on the eve of his disappearance. On december 1, they met in the evening and he said some such ridiculous things, that is, that the slovak fsb or sbr is following him, that he has a bug on his phone, that is , she. Said , that he had some paranoid thoughts, some, some, he said such incoherent things that she, well, such a thing never happened to him, that is, we think, maybe there are some narcotic drugs with some company, he called yazat, so if you have at least some information about danilo pyatnytskyi, or if, perhaps, you live in slovakia, and you suddenly see danya, do you know something about him . Call 11630 immediately. This is the only european missing children hotline that works in 208 european countries. Therefore, if you are in europe and want to report information about a missing child, or god forbid, you yourself have a missing child, do not delay and call the single european missing children line 116 30 from your mobile phone. You will receive professional help and support. And stepbystep instructions on how to act in such a situation. There are 15 discounts on uroleisan in psarynsky, bam and oskad pharmacies. There are discounts on visas, 20 at travel pharmacies and savings. There are 15 discounts on linex forte capsules in travel pharmacies for you and savings. Exclusively on the air of our channel. Congratulations, friends, politklub is on the air on the espresso tv channel. The most relevant topics of the week russias war against ukraine, the war in the middle east, the crisis on. The border between ukraine and poland. Topics that resonate in our society. Drone attack on kyiv and other cities of ukraine, drone attacks on moscow and other russian cities. Analysis of the processes that change the country and each of us. The country should get the right to start negotiations on joining the eu. Vitaly portnikov and guests of the project we are bored because there is nothing to fight about. Lets make it up. Help understand the present and predict the future. For the world, a second Trump Presidency will be terrifying. A project for those who care and think. Political club. Every sunday at 20 10 at espresso. 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Today in the war and Weapons Program we will talk about weapons, but in a somewhat unusual dimension we will talk about the potential and capabilities of society, if it is about ukraine, or about the population, if it is about the enemy russia, as the main and extremely important component of war. It is not only about the amount of mobilization resources, but about what forces, motives, approaches, concepts are used by states to resist and. Play in the war, this is actually about the stability of our society against the russian horde, which goes to the front not only under coercion, but also for money, and sometimes for the desire that ukraine and you and i do not exist. So, about the enemy and our systems, and about whether civilization and democracy can give a decent rebuff to these authoritarian regimes, with their invented and triedandtested hybrid technologies for establishing new ones. World order, this is what we will talk about by our specialist experts in the war and Weapons Program. My name is serhii zgurets, i am the director of the information and Consulting Company defense express, which is currently working together with the spresso channel to highlight the most Current Trends in the field of security and defense. And now we are joined by oleksandr shulga, the head of the institute of conflict studies and analysis of russia, this is such an Informal Association of sociologists, analysts, researchers who study. Russia, mr. Oleksandr, i congratulate you, i am glad to see and hear, i congratulate you, i just want to update that now it is already formal, we are also organized as public organizations, well then i will say, and i will also then add that, conditionally speaking, you studied russia there not only theoretically, but you were a sniper, fought in the armed forces and saw what the enemy was doing on the battlefield , how it works, and thats probably it. Important experience to understand the enemy, and i would like to start our conversation with whether there are differences in assessments of the russian state before a largescale invasion and now after several years of war, what has changed in the enemy and what we did not take into account in the behavior, intentions, attitudes of the russian population in conditions of war . First of all, we did not study russia deeply and comprehensively before the beginning of the war of 14th year, and even more so , it was like this, well, it was a miscalculation of all , not only the powers that were changing, but also us and you, i mean scientists, experts, this we really lived in such, you know, ah,. In the world of illusion that we understand the russians, we basically lived in the same country, well, they can be superior, they can be so gullible, if in simple language, but they well, they do not pose a threat, all these statements are at the beginning even the division of the soviet union regarding the fact that you will answer to us for crimea there, crimea is generally ours and so on, we. Believed that there was nothing wrong with that, well, they would talk and it would not go any further, but even after 14 year, when crimea was already annexed, when part of the territory in donbas was annexed, we still did not resort to a comprehensive study of russia, and this is really us, this is our first very serious recalculation, on the other hand, the russians studied Ukrainian Society , studied up to and including the 13th year and after on the 14th, but the plus point is that , after all, they did not take into account, they did not understand Ukrainian Society, and it was a formal study, which actually constantly adjusted these conclusions about Ukrainian Society, its readiness to fight, and well, in fact , only what the superiors wanted to see reached the top, in fact, the conclusions were the exact opposite, they took our chaotic democratic principles as evil. Readiness to fight for their independence, that is, it is also a plus, they studied, we did not study and did not see threats, they studied, but they didnt want to see the real results. What concerns Russian Society now and what we have to understand with you and what we constantly prove to our western partners. The problem of the russianukrainian war and the problem of russia for ukraine and the world, it cannot be solved. Or on patrushev or on sobyanin, even, it will not bring anything fundamentally new, it will not make ukrainians and other neighbors of the Russian Federation feel completely safe, in the fact that russia is a predictable and nonaggressive country. Unfortunately, this will not happen. We with you actually returned to russia, as everyone knew it. Its existence in one form or another, as a threat, and accordingly, we, as Ukrainian Society and as a state, and our partners in the european union, and not only, must, well, must accept this, this train of the 90s, this raid, this unnatural situation that russia was in, it has finally passed and we will return, everything is back to normal, russia is a threat, mr. Oleksandr, i would like to assess one thing based on your experience, now the Russian Military and Political Leadership introduces a kind of new social contract, that is, i had the opportunity to see certain studies by the russians there, and they say that the essence of this new contract should be that the society or the population of the Russian Federation should perceive the war as an everyday thing, that it is a normal component and. In order to limit the impact of the war on the socalled demobilized population, that is, in fact , the population that does not want to sacrifice anything, but it should not be touched, the war must remain in such a direction that does not affect the population of the Russian Federation, and in this way it is possible to prepare the conditions for a longterm war of attrition without any particular risks for russia. Regime, i would like to ask you how effective such a concept is, how viable it is, whether we should perceive it as, well, this is such a new systemic risk, as in general this new social contract, although i do not completely agree that it such a social contract, how to treat it in these current realities, you have raised a very multidimensional question, it is really this main dilemma. Of the russian regime, that is, for its survival they have, they have to maintain this perpetual war, and they cant even go back to february 23rd, 24th, 22nd, but they have to stick to that social contract that they put in place themselves, starting back in the early 2000s , i. E. You dont get involved in politics, we support. You have such a nice standard of living, after the 14th year they also raised the rates, i mean the regime, i. E. They said we add a little bit of greatness to you, and you you also dont actually feel it, its after the annexation of crimea the beginning of the creeping occupation and the attempt to occupy donbas, but after the beginning of the fullscale invasion, they actually this. Social contract, which they themselves introduced and violated, that is, they, that is , the population does not get involved in politics, it keeps its part of the contract, but life deteriorates and does not life simply worsens, and this very population is sent to die, sent, forcibly mobilized and sent, well, in fact, to the trenches, and this is on the one hand, on the other. On the other hand, this population is needed, since the blitzkrig is not, did not work out, it is necessary to somehow motivate him, in addition to economic ones, we need some incentives, well , ideological, immaterial ones, and here is the dilemma, this is the socalled svo, for the war i really put people in prison, on the other hand, how will you ideologically motivate people to go to some svo, and we really. We see this in our research, we conduct research in russia on an ongoing basis, we naturally ask questions about the russians perception of the war and their understanding of the goals of this war, and here the russians really have such a dissonance, because we constantly see this dilemma of russian propaganda, the russian regime and the evolution of russian propaganda, and even the zpatriots, you know, the nuclear electorate, who are for putin and for. Victory, they are confused about why, well, this, it all started, as a rule, it boils down to, well, we stand against the west, the west, but here. This dilemma, that is, on the one hand it is the svo, on the other hand it is a peoples war, for the survival of russia, it really, we see, and the regime is trying to balance between material incentives, to participate in the war, and not by the sufficiency of only material incentives, but you mentioned research on the territory of the Russian Federation, you them, i consider them quite unique, because you are looking for. Such methods of obtaining information, data that other social services, in particular from ukraine cannot do this. You made data based on the results of the 22nd year, you had a plan to assess the history and state of Russian Society based on the results of the 23rd year, did you manage to do it based on the results of the 23rd year and what are the changes now, well, maybe there are such changes, well visible, about which we can say, well, first of all. What, what, where you started your question, regarding the new normality, the new routine, the war as a norm, the routinization of war, it really happened, and it really plays on the one hand the stability of the regime, because when we put at the end of 22 in the 19th year, they asked the russians, name what worries you first of all, it was the war, well, they were called their own, the war, it doesnt matter. It is true that 50 of the first elections were called war without thinking and half as often called economic problems, now during these one and a half years of our observations, the numbers are diametrically opposed, economic problems came to the fore, the request to putin, as the elected president , to solve the economic and financial problems of russians, the successful completion of the socalled. Called not in the first place, this is one of the top five problems , well, tasks for putin to solve it, and we see that the regime also understands this, they also have their research, of course, and they are now also trying to solve this issue , how, if on the one hand there are economic problems, there is a deterioration in the Financial Condition of russians, on the other hand there is a war. Can no longer be an excuse for these problems, how to explain to the russians what must be tolerated, and we see that another factor is being used, the factor of terrorist attacks, the factor of fear and the fact that the war is coming to your home, the steps of city hall are only one of first steps, for this month , this topic has had an impact on the Russian Media more than 250,000 times, that is. You and i, just a month has passed since the date of this terrorist attack, it was a topfive topic and a topfive term in of the russian people for these months, these weeks, only these serious floods and the complete incompetence, as always, of the russian authorities in their decision, it slightly balanced the discourse and what was discussed in the Russian Media. But nevertheless, we see something, practically every day, the russians reported that they exposed that group, this group was exposed, icons with explosives from european countries, which of course were filled in ukraine, today in volgograd, it seems that in volgograd, apparently, another 17yearold terrorist was exposed and so on and so forth, that is, now the russian regime is trying to. Find an answer to the fact that, on the one hand, war is routinized, war is the norm, but on the other hand, how then to explain why life is deteriorating, if everything plan, if we win, if the west is afraid of us, then why do we live so badly, and here they return to the years 992000, to the factor and map of terrorism. And mr. Oleksandr, then the question arises whether this whole story is connected with the internal. By tightening the nuts precisely because of the threat of domestic terrorism, does it somehow affect the mood of the russian elites, relatively speaking, if we are talking about such a category, that is, or the russian leaders of the clan leadership, is there a certain tension there, because linguistically speaking, it seems that last year you said that you should not hope for any there are changes or contradictions in the elites, now in what. Direction is this situation developing, because why am i asking, after prigozhins rebellion there was silence, here are reports from yesterday or the day before yesterday that they arrested one of the Deputy Defense ministers there. I think, and this is a sign of what, what trend, because its not for nothing, they probably took care of shoigus entourage, are there any nuances that we should know and take into account . Well, there are two important factors, or three, which still leave me pessimistic that this is some such significant split, first, we still have little information, we remember when this information appeared, you know, there is. Ah, pure information, there are connotations, its evaluation, yes, some kind of emotional coloring, but when information just appeared that this timur ivanov was detained as the minister of defense, it was pure information, that is, they were all insiders, i mean the russian propaganda media there, in general, the Russian Media, they did not understand how to present it, that is , they simply detained him until it was clear, he was being taken there and that, thats all, at the moment it is not yet clear in what. Way it will be promoted and so far even we see only assumptions from different sides, but there is no, you know, such a general line, this is the first, that is, we need more information, more understanding, which narratives will be chosen by the russian propaganda, the second is putin, so to speak was reelected, it is his prerogative to propose a new composition of the government and new, new heads of these. Departments, respectively, in principle, this can be presented as a personnel planned rotation and send shoigu to some state emergency service, their counterpart, somewhere else, and the third, very the position is important, that is, what exactly did this timur ivanov do, he was engaged in construction, the construction of all ages and in all countries was a very nice position, and this. Really, without exaggeration, billions of dollars, he was already engaged in, so to speak, restoration in the occupied territories, including well, mariupoli, not only the quartering of soldiers, these are billions of billions of dollars that are not actually accounted for, you can say, well, war, here the coefficients are increased, a state secret, so for now i would not call it a direct split of the elites and something very strong significant, we need more information, and again. Still, if we wanted to replace the shoigu, then in principle just the reason, that is , the reelection of putin and reformatting of the government, this is quite a legitimate, legitimate reason and a legitimate date for this, as far as business is concerned elites as far as close circle, we see that it actually, well, crystallized, it actually. Unchanging, they are trying to show the fresh blood of this apte alaudinov by bringing him to the ministry of defense and calling him that, well, it seems to be one of the alternatives to kadyrov ee regarding the new as the new leader chechens or a possible watcher from the federal center. But for now it is also too early to talk about it, we do not see a fundamental split yet, and it will be seriously affected by how putin can or cannot expand his plateau socalled stability after prigozhins rebellion and after his socalled reelection, because the fact that now there seems to be no very serious protest mood in Russian Society. Or some serious performances, or some excesses, this in no way means that there will not be tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, and the reason for this can be anything, again, due to the fact that the kremlin regime, putin cannot explain and cannot predict for society when all this will end, and why, if everything goes according to plan, why. The lives of russians deteriorate and why, for example, for example, there may be the next wave of mobilization, we again have to address this factor as well 74 of russians, this is generally across all generations, or if we take the generation of 1830 years old, that is , which will primarily develop, 84 among them, among this age category, against the second mass wave of partial mobilization