How dark they are, because in fact they dont have very many alternatives and not much time left to implement certain two or three scenarios with maximum benefit for themselves, and because ukraine has already announced that it is considering the possibility of stopping the transit of gas to its territory in general, well , this is actually the only condition for such a safe existence for the transnistrians. Quasielite, well, there is actually a year left , on the other hand, for the interest of moscow, this is, of course, first of all a story about the elections in moldova, about the re election of proeuropean forces, well, first of all, it is about the reelection of maisand, which her party is counting on , because it is also a problematic sector, because apart from her party, the action and solidarity that her will be nominated in the future as a candidate, well actually. There are no proeuropean alternatives , and these are also certain challenges for kishenev in this regard, that is why these are elements of destabilization aimed specifically at this story in order to discredit kishenevs maximum power, that it does not cope with reintegration, sabotages the negotiation process, does not cope with economic settlement , energy regulation, etc. , but here there is also an interesting element of gagauzia, because it is autonomy in the composition. Republic of moldova and separatism in the gagauz, in my opinion, even more dangerous, because it is a legal autonomy that enjoys the rights of autonomy, it has the right to solve certain issues locally, but it is all a whirlwind, it is all used not to, for example, develop the gagauz culture, culture, develop and nurture the gagauz language, but for and they use it in order to nurture russian peace, thats why and on legal grounds, in fact, thats why its even. More dangerous, well , to draw the line briefly, i think that for transnistria, well, for gagauzia , as such an appendage of separatism at the level of ideas, this somewhere around 20042005, when there should be elections on both sides and in ukraine, in fact, and in moldova there should be reelections, the proeuropean government, well, their methodology, on which the socalled is based. Dniester identity, about the blockade, about the unification of moldova with romania, well, and about the demonization of ukraine, there, well, that is, all this comes to life, well, and becomes real their policy, which, which they use for, including for relations with russia, that is, the arrival in moscow of the leader of the gaguruza, evgenia hutsol, is not a coincidence, but just such a systematic destabilization work. I think not, because even from the time of the transnistrian war, the gagauz quasimilitary forces and political organizations that were organized at that time always had some kind of cooperation with the transnistrian separatists, all of this was fueled by moscow, and all of this was also fueled by the level of some personal contacts, and here, for example, such an interesting moment that we noticed with colleagues at the socalled. Congress of transnistrian deputies was noticed representative of gagauzi, ivan burgudzhi. This is a very interesting historical figure, no understatement, because he, from the point of view of the gogaus, is their national hero, who stood at the origins of this republic, which lasted four years. From the point of view of moldovan law, this is , of course, a separatist character who still continues to participate in very dubious stories, like this one. Congress of transnistrian deputies, but borgudzhi was not only the founder of this movement, the National Movement of the gagauz, if i am not mistaken, he also assembled the gagauzian guard, that is, the military organizations of the gagauz region, which took part in military clashes with chisinau in 1994, so all these personal connections are simply the end of the ongoing story that began in the late 1980s and unfolded as much as possible in 1992, 1994 and escalated in 2004, and now its like this. Another twist in between political cycles. Ugh. Well, that is, we can assume that if moldova agreed to certain economic steps towards the unrecognized transnistria, there were certain economic ties between moldova and the socalled pmr all these years. That would be no appeal about an economic measure, protection in the direction of the Russian Federation could not be. On the other hand, lavrov, the minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, has a definition in his rhetoric. We can assume and roughly understand what the moldovan regime wants in the pmr, but what does the Russian Federation actually want from this story . And for the Russian Federation, on the one hand, it can also be a story about elections, in order to operationalize the moldovan map in a certain way in order to start, well, it has already started in principle with putins speech to the federal gatherings, but actually such an international. Geopolitical dimension that is part of the narrative about the unification of the postsoviet space, i think that this could be one of the assumptions, secondly, of course, the arsenal of weapons that is located on the territory of occupied transnistria i, many experts assess these opportunities for ukraine as such that could change the positions at the front in our favor, and because of and. And and because of the hunger for ammunition, and because there is a lot of ammunition for soviet weapons, for soviet artillery, which countries cannot do to supply, and this could help ukraine a lot and actually change the schedule on the battlefield of the battle we have, well, and another such another assumption this is, of course, the destabilization of the republic of moldova, as an ally of ukraine, it is also important for russia, because transit routes also pass through the territory of moldova, by the way, the territory of occupied transnistria , including transit routes, which also help ukraine a lot, so it is a complex story, and despite the fact that the republic of moldova in many respects does not play catchup his own political rhetoric, as it should be if we are talking about real solidarity between. Goodneighborly within the framework of goodneighborly relations between countries , sanctions, for example, and so on, but still , to turn moldova finally in the direction of prorussian influence, it would greatly help russia, because it would also isolate ukraine, because to create something similar that we we have on the border with poland, i think that if they received a positive effect from all their actions in transnistria, then this could also happen. And you can explain which ones the real capabilities of the russian army, which is located on the territory of the transnistrian moldavian republic, socalled, there is also a russian army there, it consists of russian citizens and local residents, but it exists there, what can it really do . Er , i think this is a risk that existed, exists and will exist for a long time within the framework of what we have with transnistria, because this is the contingent that we have on our borders , first of all, according to various estimates, is there up to. 2,000 troops, they are all controlled by russia without exception the federation, starting with the military ogrv, is the force in which the 14th army of the soviet union was reformed, which fought against moldova in 1992, then it is the peacekeeping force that was formed as a result of the peace treaty between khishnev and moscow, well and the socalled transnistrian army, which has the largest number in terms of numbers, but in. Still it is under the control of the Russian Federation, because according to various estimates of officials, both pocket and western intelligence, as well as journalistic research, in in principle, the power block, the mgb, the army, everything related to the socalled defense, this is all under moscows control without exception, as for their combat capability, well, its hard for me to say. Its hard to make such assessments about their fighting ability, to be honest, but it seems to me that armed people can do damage in any case, especially if they are scared, so on the border with ukraine, of course, it creates. Certain risks, and we already in april of last year, the year before last, after the start of a fullscale invasion, we have already seen a series of provocations, which were directed by the efforts of such a contingent, including who it is, it does not matter, but they can and have experience in such events, in conducting such events, in deploying provocations and against ukraine, and in certain information campaigns, and for. Events on the territory of ukraine, because the events in odesa on may 2 and 2 are infamous, provocateurs from transnistria were also involved, and the same 2004 that i mentioned, before Viktor Yanukovych came to power, was also there there were gatherings of provocateurs who were being considered the possibility of leading their people there on the territory of ukraine in the event that , in the event that, uh, the Constitutional Court would not recognize yanukovych, that is, all these things are accumulated there in the institutional memory, if you can say so, and if they cannot leave as armies, they can do a lot of damage in the format of such provocations. In fact, just the mechanics of the process is very interesting, how the Russian Federation will be able to support even, lets say , the group that may be active in the socalled pmr. It is clear that in the spring of 2000. On the 22nd year, they were making certain plans regarding her , this territory, and regarding us, using this territory. On the other hand, we understand that now the situation in this part of the map is generally more in our favor. In the end, we were able to get involved, get the support of our neighbors and partners in the black sea area. First, we are carrying out civilian shipping and securing it with the Defense Forces of ukraine, but. At the same time , we understand that this may lead to the unblocking of some of the precautions that we need at this point in order not to allow no army of the pmr in the odesa region, conditionally speaking, do you see such a threat, that is, the fact that we are actually trying to demine the black sea water area in this part and so on, isnt this russia, i think this is included in the Regional Security strategy, but still a little goes beyond the scope of the topic we are discussing, regarding separatism in transnistria, i can only share with you here my thoughts on the participation of foreign partners in this matter, for example, before drive of transnistria deputies there was a whole landing in teraspool very interesting meetings. For example, a representative of the state department, christopher smith, visited teraspoli , met with the leader of the teraspol regime , vadym krasnoselsky, then after the congress, the ambassador of Great Britain visited teraspol, before that there was also the extraordinary ambassador of ukraine, mr. Paun ragovey, that is, a whole series of historical meetings , and all these participants. Of these meetings, they talked about, for example, emphasizing the return to the 5 2 format in which, for example, sentences are passed, but such a nuance was added, it is very interesting that 1 1 would also suit everyone, that is , i think that the situation will develop in the direction of negotiations between teraspol and chisinau, somewhere there, maybe next to each other, excuse me, there will be a representative of the state department , mr. Smith and will quietly watch it. Process, and of course, teraspol wants guarantees, teraspol wants to preserve its capital, teraspol wants to withdraw money and continue safely, to ensure the existence of some relatives, that is, because the end of this story seems very close. Thank you thank you, ms. Mariana, mariana prysiazhniuk, journalist, graduate student of muharedi university, was on the air, we will now take a break for just a couple of minutes, but you should stay with us for a while. Hour of conversation, kanal espresso and ukrainian pen present the project own names from myrosl. Barchu a series of conversations with ukrainian and western intellectuals who analyze and comment on the most relevant social debates. What news will be analyzed by the guests of the project this week and actually who will be the guest of the studio, we will find out this sunday. Undoubtedly, the topics will be relevant, the guests special. Proper names with myroslava barchuk. Sunday 17 10 at espresso. I will continue. In the saturday Political ClubKhrystyna Yatskiv and vitaly portnikov, for the next hour mr. Vitaliy and i will talk about the most important events of this week, and i will probably start with two such extreme events and statements. On the one hand , putin traditionally addressed the federal assembly and once again threatened the west with nuclear weapons, promising that the sarmatian will be demonstrated in the near future. Nothing new here it would seem, but here at the other pole, among our westerners. I hear really completely new things, this is the assumption of the probability that a conditional soldier of nato may appear on the territory of our country in a confrontation with the Russian Federation, and here in our own lemonde french edition says that in this way the west is trying to raise rates, it is brave in this situation, i also believe that the west is trying to raise rates, by the way, according to the chronology, first there was this statement by the president. Such speeches are written, i i can absolutely answer you to say that throughout the night between macrons speech and putins statement, putins speechwriters were reworking the text of his speech, because, as you understand, in this speech, which was prepared for several months in a row, they are working on putins message. Moreover, they dont even happen every year now. So, this is serious work, a huge number of people sit down, give certificates, give numbers , then people write it all out, then, then, it means that they consult with various departments, coordinate with various ministers, and here, when everything is actually in the ointment, as they say when the chief just needs to go to the podium and read this brilliant text, it turns out that the. A new situation has appeared, to which one cannot help but react, and this whole text, it is big, ugh, plus there is a text that is distributed to the members of the federal assembly and the ministers who meet there, by the way, they always match, no, there is a larger text in terms of volume, which means that all this must be reworked, reprinted, because the text that is distributed, as a rule, even i do not know, can it is now distributed in electronic form, but i do not believe, because this to people. A large amount, because imagine how many members of the federation council, state duma deputies, members of the cabinet of ministers, every person who is invited there must receive a document, so its just like that , everything was a shambles, putin is probably there raged, ran around the office, said that this macron could not wait, but i think that macron also understood what he was doing, that it was not a simple statement afterwards. Meetings in the elysee palace, and this was a statement before putins meeting, and before putin would create a serious problem, because if we think about it, if we analyze all this, it is not just a rate hike, it is also a struggle for leadership, look at how real events are developing, a whole group of western leaders are gathering in kyiv , who are coming here for the second anniversary. And the main star of this whole story , italian Prime Minister george meleni, who at the same time leads the list of the right in the elections to the federal federal to the European Parliament to the European Parliament and she is at the same time presiding over the meetings of the group of seven now, will also invade, and she holds such a meeting in a virtual order so that the group of seven clearly said that it will continue to help ukraine, that russian assets will not be unblocked until the end of the war, all these are very important statements, the french president is not there, he is in the countryside. Exhibition, and the french side says this is what we wanted, we were ready both a day earlier and a day later, but for some reason she chose the exact day when he is at the agricultural exhibition, then the person returns from the agricultural exhibition and gathers other leaders in the elysee palace, well, some of them were at the meeting of the group of seven, yakola in scholz, ugh, some were not, of course, because they are not included in this group. And as if this is just another meeting in support of ukraine just in paris, and after this meeting macron makes a statement, after which no one remembers the meeting held in kyiv by george meleni. Moreover, giorgi melena herself is not at the meeting in paris. Ugh. There are no italian representatives there at all. As an experienced politician , she understands what macron is doing to her. Well, olaf scholz is forced to be there, and there, and there, and he doesnt like it there. This one, because maloney is the first person there, and macron is the first person there , and meanwhile the biggest aid comes from germany, and scholz cant stand it, he says, but you could at least send more weapons, by the way, i dont know, you know that before the meeting in the elysee palace, journalists asked macrons advisers, and why, of course, this meeting is not in berlin, you can explain to us, the french journalists themselves. Well, its true, france is helping ukraine very seriously, but germany more so, but the president macron is not only talking about the fact that there may be troops, he is talking about the fact that other countries should help germany more, ukraine more, he means germany as well, that is, in fact, we are talking about the fact that macron is. What he is the leader of the process, and indeed, if you are the leader of the process, you are simply obliged to raise the stakes, and how can you raise the stakes in this situation, such a statement, of course, you cant even imagine, christina, what emotional reaction it causes in the kremlin, because it has been in moscow since 2014 adheres to one important thesis, nato soldiers against ukraine will mean war. And by the way, they kept western countries from more active assistance to ukraine in 2014 and from more active participation in the process, because they clearly told them do what you want, but if there is even one nato soldier on the territory of ukraine, there will be a war. But the war started without any nato soldiers. Thats the trick. That is, they deceived them. Because western countries. Adhered to the idea that they, lets say, do not cross red lines, so that there was no war, they did not go over, but russia did go over, and now the question arises, why cant they go further, if russia is deceiving them in the gentlemens agreements that they made in principle then. Well, macron went further than other western leaders, this of course caused, i would say, a serious problem, but now many say that in fact macron wanted to create a situation of strategic uncertainty. Showed the division in the western world, maybe, but there is still a situation of strategic uncertainty, because you understand when the federal chancellor of germany says that not a single bundeswehr soldier will be on the territory of ukraine, this is his point of view as the federal chancellor of germany, when the secretary general of nato says that there will be no nato troops in ukraine, this is his point of view and that of the general, nato troops it doesnt happen, well, its the cree troops. These are the troops of the countries, and if the president of france says that it is possible, it means that the french troops can be, and that is enough, it does not require that everyone agrees. If the president of france says yes, the Prime Minister of estonia says yes, it is not, it is not excluded, and the minister of Foreign Affairs of lithuania says yes, we welcome this statement, then several western countries are already appearing that can to join their efforts, and for this they absolutely do not need him. Nato countries agreed with them, as was the case during all nato operations, if you remember there, when there was an operation against the milosevic regime, then some participated , and others did not participate, yes, well, they just said, well, you and us, this is an operation nato, we support it, but we dont take part, well, dont take and dont take, this kind of thing, so here, its very much a thing, i would say, conditionally reassuring for the russians that the split took place, no, what happened that the countries that have appeared are ready. For the participation of their military personnel not in the war, they all say with one voice, it is not a question of war, it is a question of the fact that we can help the armed forces of ukraine, that we can train them. That we can deal with demining, uh, thats what french Prime Minister gabriel athal used to say, but these are all combat tasks in any case, it is not, no, not a clash, but it is the execution of an army, and a direct function as an army, an army does not necessarily have to enter a conflict from another army, it can perform different tasks, and instructing servicemen of other armed forces is part of military work, demining is part of military work. Absolutely, well, when they say that, it means that they are not giving up on their ideas, then look, when macron made this statement, many people thought that it was just impromptu, uh, at the end of the meeting in the elysee palace, to give, so to speak, sharpness to the meeting itself, at which no concrete things were made public, if not decided, by the way, because this meeting, we also forget about it, it walked behind closed doors, and they specifically said that they will not comment on her in substance, they do not report on her real decisions, and it was a closed meeting without such a video link of the president of ukraine, by the way, there was no, he spoke via video link, right in front of them speech, and then they consulted among themselves, and when everyone says that moscow knows all about it, because the Prime Minister of slovakia, robert fite, was there, and what was there, the Prime Minister of slovakia has military enterprises work, which are now creating him. The economy in which he is interested in order to gain power, he will not close these enterprises with his own hands, so those who think so do not know him well, and so on, so there was a statement, there were comments that he just said a beautiful phrase, and then one confirmation after another began, French Foreign minister stephane sejoret spoke, Prime Minister gabriel atal macron spoke. Said that he made a calculated statement, that this is not impromptu, then he is going to meet with the leaders of the Political Parties of france, this is becoming part of the political activity on the eve of the elections in the European Parliament, you saw this controversy between gabriel athalie and Marine Le Pen in the National Assembly of france, well when he said listen, there are no french troops in ukraine, Russian Troops are already in france, they are yours troops, ms. Le pen, this is an unprecedentedly sharp statement, no one has ever said anything like that. And this also suggests to a certain extent that many have already decided that it is enough to engage in diplomatic equivocations when it comes to people who are essentially opposed to the National Security of their own koreas, uh, so that there is no such thing, and who are also supported by a huge the number of voters, you understand, that is, once again ukraine is now becoming an object, a catalyst, so in certain election processes, currently in all of europe, unfortunately, this is not happening, when we talk about elections. The processes of individual countries, then we will definitely mention poland, but i want to ask you a question, this is a possible split in the western world, scholz, macron, maloni, how will they share this pie, yes, relatively speaking, is it good for us or bad, this healthy competition of european leaders, countries, leaders to help us in any way, as much as possible, i think that competition is good. And then how can these people not compete . Scholz is one of the leaders of the european left, they are here gathered, i think, today with their campaign manifesto, they want to win the elections, they need additional votes in the European Parliament, they do not have many heads of government, and the main figures are the Prime Minister of spain, pedro sanchez, and the federal chancellor of germany, olaf scholz, because these are the largest countries of the european union, which are led by leftwing leaders, there are centrists, their leader is hemanu. Macron is actually a completely different political force, which is in the center of the spectrum, so to speak, and they too need to prove their importance, especially the situation when the farright and farleft always win in the elections to the European Parliament in france, there are rightwing radicals, and their part that supports ukraine, this camp is headed by george meledi, and it still needs to fight those rightwing radicals, because it. Two camps, that is, which support russia, and the representatives of this second camp, part of its coalition in italy, and they will fight with it in the elections to the European Parliament, they do not go there together, they go in different groups, which means that she needs to fight with the leftists, their own, who look at scholz with the centrists, their own from the democrats