Mean by us secretary of state. And to me blinking is considering allowing ukraine to use American Veterans on russian territory. So down to the point we are discussing instructions about the, the fall into and spreading from ukraine to georgia and model the hello and welcome to, to the point on each of how do i sign in here in berlin. And today, my guess the gustavo price of the he is a senior policy fellow on military expert with the europe and council on foreign relations, e. C, f r. I stuffy off balkan bun. She is on a list for eastern europe. The gentleman council on foreign relations, d g, a, be joining us via skype from boss. So we have steady shows. She is, you made the boat to add the w a variable and welcome to you. All good stuff. Um the German Foreign minister was in ukraine recently. And she said that the situation has worse than drastically. Now we know she had planned to go to hockey if she could not because of psychiatry visits. How is the situation now in your plan has to be more than 2 years . Well, ukraine is other very difficult time into school, and it has been difficult to really be difficult. A part of that was the delay in 8, both from europe and us. Its mildly known that the us were late, but i was a european. Im a nation initiatives the relate. The problem is that the crane on forces had lost a lot of personal because of this delayed. Losing soldiers means losing skills, losing people that have experience losing people that have a noise and what theyre doing. Its very hard to retrain people to something um, so that is something that has damage their come with power quite considerably. The 2nd thing is that the russian army has compared to with the russian army. That housing waited in 2020 to grow and to roughly twice the size in terms of man, even more, but in terms of material big pro, twice the size, but on ukraine inside you have not even the losses replaced by wisdom equipment. The losses that of course, since 2022 are also you have a loss problem off. They fucked. Old solicit sense of equipment, you can find im a nation full particularly of car sip. So 1st, the armies funds or defense miss was by that effects old, a lot of ukraine in artillery tank forest mechanize vehicles where you dont get spare parts or you dont get, im a nation for it. And that has led to ukraines practical combat power. Decreasing and russian compet power increasing and russia now with these some offensive trying to make gains on that for you. Korean is clearly not in a good spot on a stuff yet, technically saelens q 5 yet um, as president ended on the 20th of me, but of course he would continue being the president because of motion law. Now his critique said that this is non constitutional. How of people looking at best and ukraine . I mean, its a fair question and if has been discussed about, especially last year, and i do the critique, most of it comes from russia, russian allies. It, there was also an idea launched by the us last year. But it was quickly dismissed as well, and the use pass no support and play and its not causing collections that im multiple reasons why elections would not be appropriate to the current time. First of all, your credit is not able to ensure a safe and fair and secure elections more than 20 percent of your current territories occupied at the moment. The 4 people cannot vote and the standard taurus it would be very difficult to ensure that people on them control lying. I able to vote due to increased it has as well increased security concerns. Then you credit has around 8000000. 00 references a all around the world, ensuring their presence and devoting stations would be as well, very complicated. And this is not just sticking with the night financial concerns. Where would the money come from uh, for elections incentives. It has made it very clear that the mind coming formula to the equipment and for continuing the work cannot be use to for elections. And additionally, a group of opposition positive so, so i agree that the elections would not be now appropriate because this would also mean electro competition. It would mean the sources, while all the efforts would cause should go for the war. And i have to say, i mean, theyre also constitutionally pen would need to change this constitution to hold elections. But at the same time also, it wouldnt be important. Its not to do go not to have elections at the moment. So we have precedence where the come to can continue the dissertation before before some sort of a piece comes in place. And the last november around its a percent of people in Ukraine Support to that the idea of way to improve their elections. So of course it is difficult, extremely difficult to hold elections at this point because of practical reasons. The or the reason i ask you this question is because since the beginning of the war, were talking about democracy versus an authoritative invitation. And now if someones continues to be the president without being elected again, would that not fuel, within a propaganda machine, as you said it in the beginning, also that the predict mostly comes from joshua. I mean, what, we will not fail for to the stuff. Again, that is whom you know, i think we should not look at what the russian propaganda is. Congress. And now we have the 2 mentors and why ukraine can know told elections. And also, i believe us as you work in partners, which is especially when your plan would not be right just at the moment due to the reasons i mentioned. And i mean, i think, sure what can be done this to dismiss this arguments between the state where we know how the president was elected in russell a racist and democratic concerns about your grade. I think it was, ive been taking the students, this is also, i dont know. What does it say about us and our democracy . I was a mind on none of the opposition parties, ones to run against the president who is commander in chief in the war situation. Because if you start to criticize the president and then also for you trained a lot of what looking at to try and going into the gulf coast, there are some of the things that after the war can be politicized. But now you would, you cant do cons. Have a really good debate about all this stuff. So in, so the old content, those old possible content, those, those politicians will think they might challenge to lead ski at a later point. No one wants that this will come off to the wall because now they, they would just lose out and, and do more harm to them in their country than andrew. And that the 1st, the train from all the situation was by you have and no position that wants to run their election against a, a sitting president me. I mean, in bella rows of course, they also say she wants to run a Fair Election against the sitting president of a. But this, this is totally different than ukraine, isnt as we should. We should also talk to the opposition and, and take them seriously on the right. Lets go to tell you quickly. Shes been waiting for us patiently. Time for your patients day. Now, ever since the beginning of the war now being concerns that ukraine would not be lost, country rev putting would try to have instruments. And there been talks about countries like mando by now dennis, just how one of the is a country like mazda above, which does not even share border with russia to fultons encroachment. So there been concerns much longer than since the beginning of rushes were on new brain. And thats because putting ensures that mold over worries about this kind of thing. You know, it has a piece of territory trans nature which is about 4000 square kilometers and about 400000 people, which has remained loyal to moscow since the soviet union crumbling. So for more than 30 years. And this is a tiny area. Um sometimes even asks for protection. Now remember when it says that he needs to protect russian speakers, this is the kind of language that we heard before. He and dated don boss in 2014 and to crimea. He said these kind of things again in 2022 before he went into ukraine. It sort of language, the people in the countries near to russia understand that this could signal that putting wants to go into this territory. He would absolutely love to create a land core door between russia and trends. Nice through it, because as you mentioned, he doesnt have a border with mold over. But this is something that the country has, has always lived with since that, since its re independence. And thats why the pro e u president. My assigned to it has very much strengthened ties with brussels. Now minova is neutral by constitution. So theres not a lot of talk about joining nato, of course. But she just this week signed a Defense Agreement with the European Union and, and she would also have done this earlier by laterally with friends. And this is going to help Security Cooperation with the European Union in areas like cyber security. Uh, uh, counter terrorism. Um, even border management. So this is something that most nobody has always known as vulnerable and its doing what its can in this, you know, very uh, very vulnerable, a neighborhood to, to strengthen itself to become more resilient. Thanks, jerry. Now, mazda of our does not share about it with joshua, but george, out of the country, has approved a contribution to farm agent law that has spot weeks of moscow this under the new law. So it was a psyche, organizations, and media that receive more than 20 percent of their revenues from abroad. Really be obliged to register as organizations subbing the interest off of form and follow people into please the are continuing to protest without rest. Even after the Georgian Parliament passed the controversial law, classifying certain organizations as foreign agents, opponents are calling the new regulation russian law. From now on, according to russian president n g os, an independent media must disclose their Financial Support from abroad the here today, petes as the basic one. Right . So its both research, one of the non government organizations, organization. And now the to day of the author of the law, i am calling urgent care. Im sending here the forwarding good debates about the law is revealing the division in georgia and society. Young people especially are afraid of pollutants growing influence. And that their country might turn away from the west. Well georgia that be the next day to fall back into rushes here in on the stuff youre vida, georgia of feel the need to bring in such an anti democratic though this to this very important question because everyone asks this to know. And in fact, george and jim didnt have to do it. They could have preserved the power without bringing in this law. And i would say that is really a fear coming from the leadership of the part of the day i losing the power at this law, whether its labeled the suppression law and very much inspired by russian legislation doesnt come on. Russian dumont, its really comes from the judge and the district from georgia. Dream in, in the attempt to preserve the power over the country and the fewest where the desk and the come in collections, georgia, judge and jim was not get the majority to add. However, i mean, i believe that the part to underestimate the judge and population and this is not so depressive resume, this is the come to full of people who want to preserve the democracy and people will be on the street. So i mean, i think it was really an under estimation from the, from the ruling 5 to they have been in power already for quite a long time. And this report has been declining of over the past years and talked in 3 months. Pacific does a very corrupt power to that, that trying to maintain the grief on the power and really sliding georgia in to look at the project and undemocratic vision. But that people are resilient and the content. And i think this was maybe i, its very hard to say which was the expectation from the judge and dream. And what was the motivation behind this because they could have, they have been getting the elections before. So i think that could have been of a tool supply to maintain the power. And to me this step is also shows that they at the to good to for, for less than to be on this to the georgia dream. I, i honestly, i mean, i see its more optimistic, but i really saying that to georgia and population a little bit stronger than this. Lets look at the effects of bossing this legislation. Well, its not just the process of getting the e. U has one that the adoption of the slogan handbook chances of joining the blog. Georgia has gone to the states, the state us at the moment. And then you also have us saying that the georgia will become an ad was read rather than a partner. How is the georgian government reacting to all of this . And you also have nato. I should point out. Also speaking out against this, and georgia has traditionally very much wanted to become a member of nato. So you really got all the major organizations um, plus the us putting pressure on, on uh the georgia dream basically, but it has seemed to backfire so far. You know, they havent back down on this. And in fact, theyre saying, well, look at all the undue influence that for and you know, for an asters want to put on georgia, this is why we need this rule. So it really hasnt worked so far. Of course the law has not been implemented yet. So that theres still time perhaps for these kind of levers to work, but at the moment they dont show any sign of backing down. At the same time you, you asked about about you membership and they have not also backed away from wanting to become a member of the European Union. So that may be where the pressure can still be applied. At the same time, the you is, is so angry about this, but its talking about rolling back some of the privileges that georgia has had, like visa, free travel, for example. And there are some countries that are saying there shouldnt be sanctions put on georgia. So this is really a long way from the joy where the country was, you know, introduced as a candidate and an e Foreign Ministers are going to talk about this next week. So security back 5 and talking about you know, you likes to be seen as this big family that has, that was opinions and it wants to include as many countries as possible. But by doing so isnt you weakening it . So now you have the examples of slovakia, you have the example of hungry ret, we realize that it did become counter productive. And now its not just georgia. E was also thinking about serbia, about montenegro, about a baby. What do you make of it . What was the thing is most enlargement. Uh, the or, or a large one for say the problem is you need to be tough on the democratic style, the freedom of press independence of the judiciary. Because if you let them slide on, not whats happened in hungary, then this opens off for this kind of clause, the author retiree and rule that then destroys a policy making a new uh and, and that is why, for example, on georgia of course, the was no strict, its not a, a just sort of issue of taste, but the problem is the georgia dream has been criticized for states capture for rolling back traditional reform for um, for nepotism uh, for hindering the fight against corruption over the past years. Um and, and basically now all these grievances break into the open monday when to try to call tale or criminalize, those organizations that still report on, on all these misdeeds. And that is, that is of course the issue where you can say no, if you, if youre going down that road um the, the, the door to the use coast. On the other hand, we see other countries that knock on the used doors that have made remarkable progress on this and that have reformed and do you see country side the you that have done all those they have like im 3 that actually have, you know, enacted was like this and kicked out of the influence positive influence from other countries. So george also sees that example and its critical to so the issue inside and outside is to be more principle list of our Democratic Values and, and basic freedoms. And that, that is irrespective of succession or not, but it is, it is a shame that our article 7 procedures are so cumbersome. And then now of course that hungary, fines allies to protect itself within to you. Um. But on the other end, if you, for example, look at you, crane and the progress of ukrainian reforms over the years, they rightfully knock on the door and say, look guys view, i mean the, all thats on democratic stands is much better than hungry itself. Why . Why shouldnt a so i would, i would separate the issue of enlargement. Um, uh, with that is it just in a very close to the environment has become part of transactional and hungry is trying to obtain deal, so no, no to block accessed. And then i also think its would be the same with georgia hungry is loved being very stronger for georgia in terms of the york session. And this can be used to know to offer now accessing talks for your credit and unload of as a bargain talking. And i think here its really important. What was that was how much of the previous to that you use to maintain. So its norm, some fellas and this very transactional environment thats relevant going on, all of the very poisoned offer. I mean, the hunger is one serbia and then it wont charge it in because of their damage, the deficits and they, theyre not the only ones the austrians also pushing for. So itd be a because survey on, on the, which would be a road block for the you to be strict on financial controls on fight against this by a nice on russian influence on corruption laws. The whole, the new prosecutor reserve is on financial tribes. That is a horace scenario for victor oil, but it also on the mines to kind of usually the policy making into the n o a practice lava. And they want to have a rescue against that and the see the georgia dream or what stage are or, and unreformed both in you are, are a kind of risk to service and allies to, to dilute onto corruption policies within you. And so, so, so again, yeah, its, it, it is about democratic standards and they should govern when we take in that him not right its, its a, its a long debate about whats happening into you. But lets come back to ukraine because got and cleared up is that put in maybe getting the upper hand and you came last, lead you to the rest in adequate support. Analysts say ukraine hasnt faced such a serial military challenge since the early days of the war. The situation has prompted a new plan that outlined specific steps for ukraines membership in nato as early as july 2028. The paper suggests that ukraine could become a member of the western military alliance by 2028 regardless of whether the war has ended or not. In the meantime, allied countries are called on to increase their aid to 0. 25 percent of their g. D. P. Error defense for western Ukrainian Border regions could also be managed from nato territory. And until the ukraine joins and 8 hope all types of conventional weapons could be supplied the stipulation that they not be used against targets and russia should be dropped. What are the chances of this new draft paper being implemented during the 28th . Isnt that too late . That was from a position of booker as 2008. Its much to late, but the problem is now the boys already there. Um, well looking at sweden and finland on how difficult task force i think it is a bit loose. If to propose exec dates for membership, because this is a negotiation process amongst the 32. 00 allied countries and that will be difficult with the respect of some countries on the other hand or you see a huge inconsistency in policy that especially looking back at the building is last year when youre trained, talked or once at a, at least, a political commitment to an invitation. If conditions arise then that those countries who are either formally or informally in favor of a negotiated settlement with russia do not support or are very hesitant on ukraines nature membership. Because if you have a kind of stall, made the agreement, we had these in the past and none of them work neither means one Norman School nor any other agreement. If you want to have the war really to end, that you need a security net for ukraine to a single to most goal, not any further. And thats would be natural membership. The most practical and the most actually effective would be natural membership. So here, the worst is all totally inconsistent. And of course this paper pokes into, into the political inconsistency. We have 2 minutes left dirty. Now we know that rush as military has become drills involving Tactical Nuclear weapons. Really, that have an effect on this decision on this proposal, rather of russia has, has nuclear tests, you know, nuclear exercises, we should say all the time. The important thing is that nato consistently says that they have not seen russia making a true change in its its military pastor when it comes to Nuclear Weapons. And that was, thats what would be the key for, for real concern about whether russia intended to use Nuclear Weapons put and has threatened it many times and has not made those moves that would indicate to the alliance. But it needed to really worry about a Russian Nuclear attack. Thank you. On a separate last question. Now youre clearly seeing here, there are 2 different strategies use um does this military method in ukraine theres a non military map of hybrid metros as theyre called in other countries. Georgia. Armando, which strategy according to you, is working better for everything. So when its not to competitors, and thats the issue about special all of the stuff that this comes together. And this is what we should to tear, which should not look on the military attacks by the hybrid to text, including in the yukon interest and then the candidates which are the same as a package that put in is having as a strategy together. Thats all the time we have. What do you think about dirt which strategy is working better to help with that . If youre watching us on youtube to let us know your thoughts, be reading your comments. Thanks for watching. The or the new will tell here be we are happy that we are back to the story. 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