Gain ground. How is the gentleman me on the west . Just fox, the hello, and welcome to to the point im. You shall have us on here in berlin, and today my guest. New to me in juno, ben hodges, hes pharma, commanding general United States army europe, announced german off globe. Spec, future security and Defense Council f. S. The seat. Next on the bottom movie, have mazda and lemmings Senior Editor off the ball in bass newspaper, their dog and speaker. And usually ive been to ankle. She is associate professor at god as in khaki, national university, ukraine. And with the things that go to the center for east europe in and International Studies or used in funded is a very long bathroom to you. Us, you didnt have stopped with do you know, ukraine is facing shortage of both weapons and soldiers. How long tend to really sustain . Yeah, actually its a huge problem because for example, i have a nephew in military forces, so few clean and theyre almost on the 0 bought a lot. And then they complain in that the, even the unit needs a lot from a nation now. So its a huge problem. And the other problem that for example, the eastern area. So if you play like harv, give my home see to, in my home region. And so my region under the constant shalon and that, thats and there are a lot of civilians who died and the who need to be recreated. So its a huge challenge for your queen and not only military bottle. So for, lets say a few shows for a tenant ship, increa many teddy on weight is as well. So this constant shelling and the lack of munition, they lack real kids. They lack air Defense Systems. What does that mean for they have more on it over there. Yeah, its also a great problem because people are overdue about 2 years being in the, in the model field. So now Ukrainian Parliament is working on, on the new legislation to mobilize more people and the kind of assessment that we need, the 500000 more. And the, the model of not only inside the army bought the, the level of, of social profusion is also decreasing. Now, so a lot of the sort of ways show him that if so, less tries to official lets to asked him zalesky himself and people really gets entire, to even volunteers, even those ones, battlefields, and those core leaving on the, the cost of all over the war been from a Military Point of view, what do you thing hold long and the soldiers really whole depositions . Well, i think its important to step back from the map a little bit. And, and keep in mind that after 10 years of war for the russia having every advantage, they still only control about 18 percent of ukraine. The Russian Air Force has failed. Its 2 most important task, which is to gain total control the air and also to enter dic, the logistics bringing ammunition from poland into crime. They havent destroyed a single train or convoy. One 3rd of the black sea fleet is now under water and theyre having to pull back from surface stobel. The russian oil and Gas Infrastructure is being hammered every week. Um, almost 10 percent of it has already been hit. The sanctions are having effect on russian rail. They cant get lubricants and spare parts so. So its, its too simple to just focus on have dave or trenches in not folk and not think about the broader strategic picture of where we are. We know from history, the oars, a test of will ukrainian soldiers have far superior will to russian soldiers. There is no russian that wants to be there. The test, the real test now is logistics and who can win this industrial competition . Can it ukraine in the west or the russians . I think we will eventually witness. You seemed really optimistic, but what you can really needs right now are also funds and the 60000000. 00 funds that us as not realizing, do you think that the congress were minus to release it finally . So this is embarrassing to me that the United States is failing on a critical task here, especially when most of the congress, including most republicans, actually support ukraine. Most americans support ukraine. So this is being held up for domestic reasons by mr. Trump and ukrainians, or are paying the price for it. I have to say that my president , whos doing a good job otherwise has got to do a better job of explaining to americans why this matters to us. Go to the american people. So they didnt, they put pressure on their congress when say why, why are we helping ukraine . So, america still discussing germany, meanwhile, has said another 500000000 utilize too little too late. So its a good question. I mean, if, if it comes to, to total sums, germany is the 2nd biggest contributor for the ukraine and military and civilian assistance as well. So you can argue with the, with the, with the amount of money that is given in relation to, to your, uh, to the people you have or to the budget you have so that its of the middle ground, Something Like price 12. 00 and something i would not say its too little too late, that they are supporting the ukraine. Not to the extent in some sometimes wishes, but the but you have to see that there. Theres a new business to tragic tactics from the ukranian army. This is a protecting the infrastructure of the, of, of russia in russia itself, a rough injuries and things like that. So i think should be supported in doing that because this detracts the attention from the russians to many, many different places. They can concentrate that the ad defends and Defense Systems and one place. So i think this is so this is something to have to watch very carefully stand with limited resources. I ton, the Ukrainian Army is primarily focused on defending their positions against the russian forces. This is becoming increasingly challenging as the odd stuck up against them. Lets take a quick look at what the situation is like on the ground. Ukrainian soldiers in the donuts region are using ground. A multiple Rocket Launcher from the soviet era. Smaller slid or the room on it was there are few grenades, but not enough of them. Beautiful. Not as much as at the beginning when we could really fire and stop the enemy. No more. No, no support in the east. Things are looking bad for ukraine on several fronts. Me, a hockey civilians are building more defenses to prevent russians from breaking through. Russia is also heavy bombarding the south, at least 20 people were killed in a recent attack in odessa. These imperial emissions will continue to watch, like the way a lot to be and will not stop with fronts in germany. Its better to still continue craven later on a global scale. Unimportant globe of them. But ukraine isnt just slow now. Munitions. Its low on soldiers and the ones who have been fighting for 2 years are exhausted. Do you ukrainian troops still have a chance . Been your thoughts . Do they have a chance . Well, that was the most depressing uh, doom or narrative. Ive heard and i dont think it accurately portrays whats going on. Of course are building trenches outside of our that we should been happening years ago. Of course are doing this. Of course, soldiers are tired. Clearly ukraine has got to fix the personnel system there. There are probably 2000000 ukranian women and men that are military age. So the government, not the army, the government has to do the job of changing the necessary law, but also convince women and man that if you come into Ukrainian Armed forces, we will not send you to the meat grinder and we will only put you in the right uniform, youll get training and then youll be put in a unit so that you can do rotation. Theyve got to do that. But the, you know, theres, theres another side in this war. There are no russians that want to be there. And when we talk about app div go mean people talk about of div code like it was stolen, grid of disc is as far in the east as you can possibly be in ukraine. So theyre the and the russians after a month. Mean that happened during new security current. So a month ago, they finally took a difficult to losing 40000. 00 soldiers and theyve only advanced one or 2 kilometers from there. So the russian, i dont think, have the ability to exploit whatever success they are having. Lets bring in some data that now it actually amount of this to produce 3000000 units of opportunity i, munitions annually. While the entire need to alliance can only produce 1200000. 00, thats less than half of what restaurants producing. So despite all of the sanctions and everything, how is it that us yet a student able to maintain this . Yeah, so its a great question. Um, obviously there are holes in the sanctions. I mean, there are things that are still getting through from india, china to north korea, obviously of. So thats, thats a part of it. But you know, war is not a math problem. Its not like they made very 3 times this. What matters is what capability you have, where you need it. And if germany and so like a taurus is equal to hundreds of artillery rounds and, and with the precision or the us, a tech comes to 300 kilometers and track comes. Every single russian headquarters, artillery piece, logistics site in russian occupied ukraine. Every one of them could be hit. Thats. Thats more important than how many causes of our clear grounds they have. Its the precisions would make such a difference. Were you going to to us in a bit . Your pin commission has triples transferring profits generated by frozen Russian Central Bank us. Thats true you cream and drums and has said, and i called it is going to be an unprecedented violation of International Law. So how is it i feel really going to respond if that was to happen . Well, actually, i, i, its so what popular mind the russian politician and diplomats, and about the violation of International Law, a can try to do the fighters, the countries territories, torturing people. And coming to the right, so yeah, it is, it is a form that is actively advocated by ukrainian, the government, but thats but it as well because we hear some assess which will frozen. But the, the, the point that the, this money us to up the rate is by the counselors who for the visa and money and ukraine needs not only the supplies so far. Im a nation that is a huge demand of a now they reconstruction because we have like co 5000000. No for internally displaced people. There are people more than 2000000 of them lost the ability to leave and the in the, the community is so we need to repair residential areas. We need to do pay a interest of auction the its a huge demand. The road bank assess language goes, which was released out like on. So i brought it 2 months ago. It was more than 453000000000. So the return needed to pay, youre going to put it in context here. Were talking about 2. 00 to 3000000000. 00 euros per year, which is nothing at the bottom of the course. But the, from the point of view of your plan facility will re, to kind of develop this a plan from utah pen commission. And the, as you put in there are now is a future movement to of, to develop all the plans and projects for the construction. So its Community Based reconstruction is reconstruction of Building Back better. And now people even would say more or less safe for a region. So the develop then how to, you know, increase the capacity to give issue many, to it. And responsive pressure still will be attack and then its will up back again and again. So its on this, and actually i will attack again, im mazda of German Defense minister bodies custodians. He recently emphasized that the rest has to be prepared for any situations you said. Now we saw last week that would intrepid, that, that need to weapons. And he said weapons are there to be used. So is the last really preparing for the last at the moment . Its at least it seems they have prepared for it. Uh, there was a report in the New York Times back to, i think it was in the, in the ultimate, in the fall of 22. When they really expected that the russians would use a Nuclear Weapons in ukraine. And they said the, the, the biggest problem by the crime in and they said they, the likability would be above 50 percent. So what strikes me in this report is that the answer would not have been nuclear, but conventional. This is something that the russians read with the here for the with a lot of attention because it helps them the own calculation at the, even though they might use atomic weapons, the west might not answer accordingly. So so yes and no booting is using the, the atomic threat as a, as a way to, to, to point to european countries, especially the germans because they are most afraid of them. Um, but if youre, if youre focused on the like ability, then you can just raise the white flag and so we give up on the, on the other hand, if you ignore the likability that might lead to, to dangerous dynamics that, that you dont want to want to have so this is always, if you fight a soup and Nuclear Superpower thats, thats the dilemma youre in. So, how do you think the rest would respond . Because you said white flag. Now im talking about about the story is i have his go to and he says, nobody really knows whether or rand russia will attack anybody in europe. So what we have to learn as allies in europe is to be prepared for any threat, especially for the threats which comes from pollutants associated any of these are extremely strong words that we feel strong words and that i would say it makes a difference. For example, if youre a member of nato not. So nato has to be prepared for any kind of threats against a native country because its a, its in, its in the lines. Um, does that include every other country in that region . I would say no, because nato is in the tech of nato is, is article fights every other country has to. It has to, has to come to help in any kind of threat is what do you think about threats . I mean, what can happen . Just sure. In principle, yes, but what does it mean to practice i, i can see that all defense minister saying that moving on from defense minister, lets 1st take a quick look at whats really happening in germany. So johnson to all of charles had promised a sizing vendor, a turning point, a historical shift in the countries of foreign and Security Policy in order to deal with russia. Under charles, germany has indeed become the 2nd largest donor of veterans and munitions to ukraine, right off to the United States. But has charles really managed to keep his promise leaders from his own body, the s p d. All suggesting otherwise . Or is it a sneak on that side . Is it time that we not only talk about how to wage war, but also about how to reasonable and ended lay time on, sped talk all the end. He kind of the suggestions made by the top says s p. D. Policy has triggered strong reactions and caused the green policy for administer babble to shake her head. Shes referring to the you and report on russian will crimes and ukraine good uses. But i believe the anyone who reads this report will not bring up freezing the conflicts. Again. This report reads like an absolute horace story. This basically an absolute says what then comes criticism from within the s p d defense minute step. His story is agrees with his publish colleague. If i were to freeze of the conflict, whatever form it would take, would mean it only helps preteen in the end, well put in have a chance to shop together with french president my call and publish Prime Minister task. He has empathetically pledge to supply ukraine with more weapons. How determined is germany to support ukraine . How do you see that buttons on freezing the war really mean that putting gets to keep order when he was occupied so far . Exactly what it means and bad luck for the millions of ukrainians that are in the occupied territory, the thousands of ukrainian children that have already been kidnapped and deported. We already know what happens in ukrainian villages when the red army shows up. So bad luck for them, i guess its sounding to me that a senior german political official would say Something Like this, which i think is strategically illiterate. Now the problem is the United States and the German Government have got to make it clear that we want ukraine to when im proud the United States in germany, the top 2 in terms of dollar or euro value. But thats, thats not the metric that matters. What matters is, have we do weird what our objective is and how much progress have we made towards that objective is, is not a, its not a test of who gives the most. If that was the case, then estonia and lithuania would probably be right at the very top because of the percentage of g d p. Its about giving whats needed to win. And that clarity, i think, is whats really missing. But whats us winning mean that the russians will just pull out from any kind of occupied territory and say we give up police or i dont know if if they do it that way, thatd be great. But the ukrainians have to inject them back to the 1991 border thats thats present. Jalencia said that everybody recognizes thats the southern border. So the chinese are watching to see are we serious when we talk about sovereignty, human rights, respect for International Law . Because if we fail here, were frankly, its much easier to support ukraine, then it will be adding the endo pacific region. Then i think the chinese may make a terrible miscalculation the way the russians did. It doesnt freeze, mean that we, that the, uh, how long would you fight for this, for this kind of and that, that they, that the russians were pulled out of every kind of occupied territory. Fries means we postpone the end result and, and talk about the stop of the war. Postpone every kind of questions. Absolutely, the west can never give out the silver entity of shelf ukraine. Everything like this. But try to find a supplement. Lets say we may natal guarantees for the rest of your crane, but to have and will settle all the other questions related to point. So we wasted 8 years with minutes process. So i dont know. I mean, this sounds me like the most nic didnt learn anything. Minutes was not from the minutes process. Yeah, i know, but minutes was not for, for nato guarantee. Security guarantees for you. Okay. Okay. Would so use and so jeremy would be willing to actually thats no question. Im just trying trying to argue what do what fries might mean if you see it from the positive side. Well, lets say it reminds us. Yeah. That we already to try it to produce the conflict then to of, to crania was a good by 10 years ago. Its to day when it was kind of, uh, a next by arrest consideration legally. So the origin of last was lead a wedding week and your money actually increase its consumption alpha gas from russia to fault seems 2014. And of course, the kind of for rio and attempts to please the conflict. And during this time, russia just to begin its following, develop the uh, blo, how to a tech auditor thoughtful for your brain. So its really wary, challenging to believe that the russia will hold to the eyes, you know, the points that could be reached. Julian on negotiation, i dont believe these. Youre also talking at the time the leaders of you are meeting in brussels for to day summit. Do you think anything concrete with come out of that . Especially because it was just a few days back where leaders of the volume i try and make each other. Yeah, i, i would say that the i a final for the european union, myself and the i call today to the utilization to ukraine and continue putting in school his students and a little dentist. That is, but we do understand that you will be on union is note about defense and the these kind of inc assistance. So it would be nicer or it would be more clear for you creating an see for nathan members will be more, lets say a. So lets see for a in the a government is to ukraine. That is why we could discuss whether the shelby any guarantees and the how to, for those, these conflict without any promises and, and commitments from the maita member est its, itll be no point to talk about the pros and cons if i think i see here different uh, both specters, also from ben and mazda, and when the leaders of the volume are triangle they met. Although they tried before unity one could see the difference is that as well, do you think that unity is really going to work there because of my current and charles are on completely Different Things inside them they, they face very different a product in the old country different dynamics in principle, i would say um, okay, so ill just dont say we need troops on the route. That would mccall suggested that might be a solution. But, but im not quite sure if even mccaul thinks about that and realistic towards so front is now the only atomic power in europe since the Great Britain pulled out. So it has a certain kind of leverage that can have. So it kind of poll with the arguments, but i dont think they, um, the differences between mccaul and, and shoulds, the, the go to the core of the problem. They both agree to support the ukraine fronts could do better, i think, and supporting the shots can do better as in other terms. But, but in principle they are, they are in one vote. But you did start with domestic politics. So does that mean that for both france and germany domestic policy is actually shaping international and Security Policy at the moment to us arctic sound . Yes, i mean, and in germany the optical illusion, if, if it is the red green and the a Yellow Coalition has very, very different interest in this kind of thing. So a chance that has to look for it for its own government and housing, somebody. So domestic policy shaping international policy. Thats all the time we have. Unfortunately, i know it does really quick or if you are watching us on youtube, do let us know your thoughts. What do you king tell me um the west shouldnt be doing thanks for your time. Goodbye. The answer is the conflicts own. With tim sebastian. As the warning ukraine grind on the neighboring voltage states watch anxiously from the ringside seats, pressing the west to increase a secure, and make sure russia dozens with i guess this week is lastly as 5 minutes to kristy on. This kind of these clear nature as to optics can conflict in 30 minutes on the w to the points strong opinions, clear position, international perspective. The situation in ukraine is going dire as soldiers struggling to maintain that. Meanwhile, germany is discussing the possibility of freezing the warm sun to the point we off to skin ground. How would tell me on the west response to the point in 90 minutes on d w. The people in trucks inject, when trying to see the city center. This is a video and audio production by d w. I hope that you will tune in the this is the, to the news line from the and then you need is cool for an immediate pause in the fighting in gaza at assignments. And russels latest, on the 27th Member States them on the unconditional bernice of all hostages and israel, not to launch a ground defensive in the southern city. And also the, our secretary of state definitely blinking, says negotiates is on making Good Progress towards the ceasefire of the folks in egypt. Lincoln says hes confident that a deal between israel and thomas as possible. I think the gaps between the 2 on narrowing the