Transcripts For DW To 20240703

Which has blocked the gaza strip. And mobilized a record 300000. 00 for service. Why were israels wanted military and Intelligence Services caught off guard. What movie attack mean for an already precarious region . Our topic today. How much the terror against israel . How will it change the middle east, the, and welcome to to the point. Its a pleasure to introduce our guest starting with guido stein backs, who is a terrorism expert at the German Institute for international and Security Affairs s w p. Its also a pleasure to welcome daniel dylan, tom. Uh, she is a Senior News Editor on the Foreign Affairs desk at the german daily defense sheil neighbors on. This is a colleague here at dw. Shes a commentator and editor for, for us and has also worked for media in her home country is around and its a pleasure to welcome joining us virtually ofa lets asthma. And she is an independent author and a musician who is equally at home and in germany and in israel, and she joins us via skype. And also if i, if i may, id like to start with you, you are in israel at the moment. Tell us how people are reacting to this worst attack in 50 years. Is real, had been driven by divisions and recent months. Is that now has that receded or well, the people are more preoccupied ways and overcoming the every daily challenges we have to help those with being evacuated from guys are, those are being evaluated now im from the northern borders. I would say the logic questions like the question of um, social unity about politics. These are questions that well have to wait until the war is over. Thank you. And and shawnee, one of the striking things about the images that weve been seeing. Images of terrified young concert goers of blood, sneered homes and villages, very close to the border. Is the fact that people seem to have felt so safe. Theyre so close to gaza. It seems that that very high tech, very expensive wall, was viewed as an impenetrable barrier. Correct . That was one of israels, of pillows of defense when it was looking into that region. The assumption was 1st that there will be, had notice in the sense of intelligence. And that this barrier, which was, as you said, very expensive and very technologically events will secure the border. And the failure of these 2 is still something that is we have so many israels, or a glass grappling with still and its gonna stay there for a long time. Were going to figure this out and we will come back to that question shortly. But you dont let me ask you about the comparisons that were hearing more and more now between how im us and, and the, the incredible suffering that it reached in its attack and isis. Are those comparisons justified . And what do they tell us . Well, both organizations come from totally different uh, ideological backgrounds. And until recently, i would always have argue that how mazda is a lot more pragmatic and the Muslim Brotherhood tradition of the nice as was. But if we take a look at the violence that has been perpetrated over there, its a primarily reminds me of the of the is it a genocide in iraq and this, this quest for and, and the late pending elation, not only of these rarely, spite of jews this is, i think something new and thats quite comparable. Twice that. So i think when dealing with the organization, we should perhaps not think as much of the, of, of how most of, for my tons, but draw the finding an organization that is a lot closer, twice its been we previously for. I dont know what will have been the driver for her mouse to perpetrate this attack. Now, at this moment in time, what do we know about from us is here . Well, there is some speculation over that. One of the most plausible explanations is that the sponsors off from us, were interested in stopping the roof, prussia mall between those roll and saudi arabia, which would have been really a serious blow to remain in strategy in the region. But i think we can take this completely for granted. At least the United States say they have no indication that iran directly ordered this attack. But we can be sure it couldnt have happened without, during an approval. And as for homeless, they always have an interest in dealing faithful blows. Tails will also, melinda, if you can quickly, after that, we know this wasnt the making for many months over year already and the saudi american ties that have been exposed. This just happened recently. So theres something deeper that connecting more to what it was saying about the way, how much is good heading, ideologically, what were seeing as, as the hatred running deep and, and how it channels the actions of this organization. And over all of this is taking place in the region that was already a tinderbox. What potential reverberations where we use the most as well honestly speaking, as im talking to you from the northern pablo visa next to k file and as why was driving around in my hometown here in northern israel, seeing all the tang single, the military, were looking towards north to the living east bold. If we ask ourselves, how will this is but ill react how we get on react. It is i must, did meet his and hes ready again, leaving now and being in northern israel. Very reassuring to see the strong u. S. American response ending a, as a carrier here today, region to send a message dont as President Biden said, dont back off, and us a foreign minister also traveling to the region as well. Lets take a closer look at the homeless attack and its potential reverberations in the region, a homeless and as long as terrorist groups fired more than 2000 rockets, it israel on october 7th alone. It broke through the barrier around the gaza strip, using explosives and bulldozers. According to his really reports, some 1500 militants breached these really military block heater cause i into is rarely territory and killed more than 1200 people on the street and in their homes. Including young people attending a music festival, about 150 people, including women and children, have been taken hostage. They are running head of state i a total of coming a praise the attack while rejecting accusations. But it had been orchestrated by the millers team. But some analysts say that a large scale attack of this nature would have not been possible without support from t ron regime. And no one has repeatedly threatened to destroy its perceived arch enemy israel. For years, the regime has aided the militant as long as group. Im us, providing money, weapons and training, you know, and has also threatened israel with the help of hezbollah. Its ally, militia, and 11 and widely considered a terrorist organization. Hezbollah immediately expressed solidarity with a mazda by firing rockets that these really border in israel defeat from us by military means data. Id like to put that question to you, but coupled with some of the language that is rarely leaders are using, theyre talking about eliminating how mosse, when they describe their intentions. Garza is a dense urban area. Some us fighters are surrounded by civilians. So what is a campaign of illumination . Look like when we dont know exactly what, what these rarely walton will be a. But according to what, luckily to say we, we will have to expect a ground offensive to the who gaza strip. And i think that these rarely military, uh, is, is capable of off uh, of destroying the structures of the most in the god, because of st. Many how most fighters will die. Perhaps most of them many as rarely soldiers will die of many civilians where die no matter how careful days rarely military proceeds. And i dont think there is, there is any alternative. If. If the government, if theres really government really wants, wants to go to all the, all the guys and cities daniel, the use for and policy chief and a number of other leaders as well. Have warned that is real as it embarks on a military campaign. Must respect International Law avoid harming civilians. Is that Wishful Thinking . Its will be hard to do that. But if you take International Law quite literally International Law does recognize the fact that civilian casualties happen in wars. International law says that warring parties need to take every measure they can in order to protect civilians. But what is sure is that we will see a lot of civilian casualties. And we will also see media and policy campaigning from the from us side. And also in many are up states that wilk, hughes is roll off, needlessly slaughtering promise to begins. This will be part of the political fight around this company. You recently wrote that making peace with him us. Its impossible out of the question. So i know its early days, but what does that mean . How does this end . Well, i think making peace with some us is um, but at least close to impossible because of its funding. Thats the fundamental list, religious ideology. And also because its not up to from us, allowed to make peace. It is all so an instrument of uranium foreign policy. I think if we want to settle the conflict around a moss for good, then it would need a grand supplement in the middle east that would somehow at least limit the confrontation with iran from israel, but also from many arab states. This is part of the context, at least for the want, and well come back to that point, but its shiny. Let me ask you about the hosted situation. How mouse has some 150 is really hostages, including old and young people. Children, mothers, it has threatened to murder them. If is real attacks in the gaza strip indiscriminately without warning. Do you think that will deter the, is really authorities . Well, especially they said, want, all the statements weve been hearing from is really officials, is that theyre going to fight her mazda as if they dont know hostages only maybe in specific cases, when they know on of specific a place where theyre being, how they might, it might the tourism um its a, its a, its a terrible position that, that, that it puts these really leadership and you cannot that they dont control guys or they dont know whats happening in the underground level of the tunnels and gaza. And where these people are hitting, theyre not even sure how many of them are theyre held by how much. And how much is very purposely hiding that to use that. I wouldnt put the pass them to use the hosted, theres in any way possible. And that israel is always, its always a touchy subject of digital, and this has specifically the greater the outcry from the public will be the harder which will be for these related to ship to take to ignore this topic. Over in the past, israel has participated in hostage exchanges. In fact, the current head of from us in gaza was a member of a mass group that was swapped for one is really present our name. Me give that she charlotte. Um, do you think any kind of negotiations would be going on now . Is there any way to try to effect such a swap at this time or whether attempted negotiations, the cutoff . Yeah, egypt actually as one reads via germany as well. We have a different dimension. Now as youre right dimension it actually towards one person was exchanged to around 1000. 00 and palistine in prison. Theyre using these ro we have now around 150. 00 is riley, a prisoners or a is really a victim c thinking there. Um, in regards to street, young babies all the old people and they must say it is a challenge. Talking is a journalist, it is a challenge to talk about the things to talk about the human sufferings of these people. Actually to also talk about the human suffering of this either population in gods in a, in a remote manner. Maybe the cause is eating these real. And it is rather rather difficult. And i asked myself, in order to avoid from the destruction that awaits now the gods the street from in these really offensive, i think that it is the role maybe over the arabic world. It is definitely the role of the philistine india spread to sound a clear voice that whatever from us has done and made it actually is not the thing that is being done on behalf of the policy and people it is not the thing that has been gone for the palestinian struggle for, for independence. And thats might be the perspective that might give it way to relieve it guys and relieve is right from us and avoid civilian casualties on both sides as much as possible. Are you hearing voices like that . For example, from members . Of the top which is usually viewed as the moderate palestinian representative. As there are 2 answers to this question. The arabic silence, especially the silence of the palace steaming or falling me off on me and the assignments of the kind of scene and gas pro is painful in our years, especially those of us where things struggling side along side. It was the philistines for palestinian estates was about with these rail, we see a new role of jewish arabic, n, g holes. We see voices, we hear voices of solidarity. And regarding these a, these attacks with the voices, we hear voices. The said he says nothing to do is to put his name is rob, the lease has nothing to do. And with the wheezy slowing, but again, the silence of the policy in india spread the silence of the policy. And in a far as he is painful, we also need to get the model most of the, those muslim victims among the israelis in still being bombarded. There are many muslim era is really sharing destiny in face with israel, his shoulder to shoulder up data of those Palestinian Civilians in gaza. Israel has called on them to leave, undoubtedly as its considering a ground offensive. But where are they supposed to go . Egypt for one has refused to set up safe corridors for refugees to leave because the strip was the there is an area in the gaza strip where they could possibly go in the southeast. And i think that this, that these really military would do, would be ready to respect the safety of uh, of any persons in, in the area. But quite in general, there simply wont be enough space for dozens, cousins to leave. If egypt does not let them into the country, and it seems as if the egypt will not do that again, if, if it is there a tax, no matter whether they the all human ontarian car doors inside or outside of kaiser menu, civilians will die. Daniel, can you say a word about, again, how you see the further progress and in the gaza . Lets say israel does conduct this campaign to eliminate from us. What does it have to do after that we occupied gaza . It has been profoundly reluctant to do so. It left more than 20 years ago and has, has attempted to contain rather than to occupy. Will that change . Well, i think it might change. And actually when you talk to members of deals really military and to some politicians behind closed doors, they will tell you that maybe it was really a mistake to move out of fargo and 2005. And that it has been evidence that you cant control this place from the outside that you can prevent it from becoming a time boom, that explodes in regular intervals. So i think this is definitely not out of the question, but i think we also have to keep in mind that there are also problems doing in the west bank. And this could be another problem that is little has to deal with either politically or security wise, maybe even within the course of this conflict. So let me ask um, im gonna switch focus a bit and come back to how this could have happened and shiny. If i look at the headlines in israel, i see headlines like nothing yahoo is recklessness. Has brought war upon israel. Thats a quote from heart of thats the left leaning is really newspaper. Despite the mood of National Unity or at least solid garrity would you say that this is provoking criticism and is the back of as much a political one as a military one . Well i, everybody feel something is off right, left strong support. It was nothing. You know, everybody understand. This is an unprecedented failure. This is an unprecedented shock and trauma. And there are attempts mostly from above, from politicians to put paul to politics aside. But the rage is such that these voices cannot be taken for too long, and there is no doubt thats and you always been the Prime Minister for over. I mean, for 16 years, almost other than a short interval. Last year, he is appointed many of the heads of the security and defense apparatus. He is been complaining to be mr. Defense. This his claims for fame and failing. And this point is going to be, somethings gonna be very hard for him to dodge. So i think also if we want to stay away from civic, go look into politics. This is the role of leadership taking responsibility. There is rarely people, many of them feel they have been left without anyone taking responsibility defend for themselves during that attack and ending the days before they are still following with a quick need that is there and various response from the government. And so we have a has to go, hadnt had we have to sit together, get, are you with us . Leaders are saying that egypt actually warned israel about 3 days before the attack. That Something Like this might be coming. And it seems that from us and part through this information managed to low the is really Security Service says into a false sense of security. So how was that possible, and what does it tell us about the vaunted military unintelligence power . Like im, im not that sure that the, the intended intelligence failure is as big as it is being depicted right now, simply because how mazda is a very professional, very secretive, heidi, highly ideological organization. It is capable of hiding some things, especially because that is rarely, as were expecting a similar attack, not from the gaza strip, but from the north for 4 months already. So im not that sure that, and youll always have to expect that your Intelligence Services dont get prior information about operations. They are not perfect. Its a very, very hard job that has been extremely successful for decades. But things like that happened. And that is why the, on such a board or you need the military. But the military wasnt that, theoretically it should be one division. Lets say about 2025820000 soldiers. They were not there. So thats the failure of the military leadership. And of the Political Leadership, and i agree, some months off the after this war has ended, i believe no time yahoo and some others will have to leave those on the net on yahoo has now gone into a unity government with the centrist Opposition Leader benny guns too, hows a great deal of military experience, but the extreme right wing members of Netanyahus Coalition remain in the government as i understand it. So what if anything will change, or i would as long as these to rephrase, requesting illegal, meet nathaniel was forced into a government of National Unity and we, we had to wait for 5 days for the government to the National Unity to be formed. We had to wave with 284789 hours between the farmington. Yeah. Who is actually usually he jumped in front of every camera before he talked to the east rodney, people explaining what is going on. Actually, the only active Political Leadership that we have seen in east round in the past few days came from us president joe biden. It didnt all come from the history and the leadership. I need to follow up and walk. You know, steinberg just said the military was not there. Where was it . The question is where it was, you know, these are questions that will be discussed after the war is over. But we know that the threatening military and this, you know, reflects upon your question about the right wing the right extremist thing. These really government has created many provocations in the west bank through the set 3rd movement in the east read the army was forced to take care of those provocation. So we ask ourselves, where was the military, what is the role of the political a, of the Political Leadership in israel, in allowing this horrible attack tools to happen and, and im sorry to say, hoping to get us diabetes right in the, in the a will not survive, at least for this blog, the stay for the jewish people since 1945. But and these really put these really politics. It seems 1011 months. Anything else with rational . So we will have and well have to wait and see that. So id like to briefly, you know, i, the failure is in, in is, is in the macro, were not into the details of what happened to the intelligence. The failure is the short sightedness. The failure is the air against the failure is the lack of prospect. But that to me, always not, you know, has given or not given to the region to the past. And for many years this is where the failure is. Let me come back to another dimension that was covered briefly in our report that we saw earlier. And that is iran or ongoing support for her mouse and for his bola, daniel, you have called his bullet iran sharpest sword. So 2 quick questions. If i may, what do we know about it runs involvement in the attack itself. Whether there was explicit for knowledge and intentionality, and secondly, what do we think about whether his bullets well jump into the fray . Well, as for a juan and its involvement, as i said, its inconceivable that this would have happened with out wrong knowing and approving it. There has been reports from lab and on that there was a meeting between uranian from us and his will. Leaders on monday before the attack. This is not a confirmed report, so we should treat it with caution. But it is possible, but iran was closely involved at least and then as an observer and that as for. Yep. So you want to take place now as for his bullet as well as mainly so strong because it has a huge arsenal of miss ons. Not all of them are really advanced miss signs, although there are some guided precision besides among them. But the sheer number of missiles could cause a huge problem for is willingness our defense, which as we know is probably the most advanced in the world. I dont think thats his beloved once to enter with a fight at the moment. There is a tit for tax at the north, but this could escalate and it is already escalating. You know, our title asks whether this will change the middle east. Could we see this turned into a regional intern even an international conflagration . Its plausible scenario if hes bala intervenes, if is his paula caesar, caesar itself forced into a confrontation with israel. Of that is that is as an scenario, and thats the very reason why we have seen the movement of the american across the carrier towards the eastern mediterranean. I hope that we will see a relatively short floor in gaza. But im not quite sure that that this will be, will be the reality in the coming weeks. Im afraid well have to leave it there. Thank you very much to all of you for being with us today. Thanks to our viewers for turning and see you soon. The shift your guides to life and attention to explore the latest online trend, navigate your way through the digital jungle. Global perspective. Will be youll guide and show you whats possible. You decide what really message to you i to tell me no funds d, w. They know all weaknesses in security. Illnesses and profit from them will be a bit like rice that they are experimenting and how much Companies Like google know about most intimate secrets. And where do we draw the line may to measure in 15 minutes. On the double you interest the Global Economy report, folio dw business be on heres a closer look at the project. Our mission to analyze the flight for market dominance. 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The best to speed up your news and these that are top stories is very john true. So scattered out what they call the localized streets inside. Got that strip over the last day of the ministry for infantry and thanks shown us entered gods i to locate it all, controls the story, weapons and thoughts for hostages. The raids did not appeal to signal unexpected down defense of