Transcripts For DW To 20240703

A record 300000. 00 for service. Why were israels wanted military and Intelligence Services caught off guard. What will be attacked me in for an already precarious region. Our topic today. How much terror against israel . How will it change the middle east, the, and welcome to to the point. Its a pleasure to introduce our guest starting with guido stein back, who is a terrorism expert at the German Institute for international and Security Affairs s w p. Its also a pleasure to welcome daniel dylan, tom. Uh, she is a Senior News Editor on the Foreign Affairs desk at the german daily defense sheil neighbors on. This is a colleague here at dw. Shes a commentator and editor for us and has also worked for media in her home country as well as its a pleasure to welcome joining us virtually ofa lets asthma and she is an independent author and a musician who is equally at home and in germany and in israel and she joins us via skype. And also if i, if i may, id like to start with you. You are in israel at the moment. Tell us how people are reacting to this worst attack in 50 years. Is real, had been driven by divisions in recent months, is that now has that receded as well. The people are more preoccupied ways and overcoming the every daily challenges we have to help those with being evacuated from guys, those are being evaluated. Now im from the northern borders, i would say the logic questions like the question of um, social unity, about politics. These are questions that well have to wait until the war is over. Thank you. And, and shawnee, one of the striking things about the images that weve been seeing. Images of terrified young concert goers of blood, sneered homes and villages very close to the border. Is the fact that people seem to have felt so safe. Theyre so close to gaza. It seems that that very high tech, very expensive wall, was viewed as an impenetrable barrier. Correct . That was one of his rows of pillars of defense. When he was looking into that region, the assumption was 1st that there will be, had noticed in the sense of intelligence. And that this barrier, which was, as you said, very expensive and very technologically advance will secure the border. And the failure of these 2 is still something that is real, so many israels, or a glass grappling with still and its gonna stay there for a long time. Were going to figure this out and we will come back to that question shortly, but you dont let me ask you about the comparisons that were hearing more and more now between how im us and, and the, the incredible suffering that it reached in its attack. And isis are those comparisons justified . And what do they tell us . Well, both organizations come from totally different uh, ideological backgrounds. And until recently, i would always have argued that how mazda is a lot more pragmatic and the Muslim Brotherhood tradition of the nice as was. But if we take a look at the violence that has been perpetrated over there, it says primarily reminds me of the of the u e z genocide in iraq and this this quest for an annually. Elation, not only of these rarely, spite of jewels. This is, i think something new and thats quite comparable. Twice its so i think when dealing with the organization, we should perhaps not think as much of the of, of how most of, for my tons, but rather fighting in the organization that is a lot closer, twice as than we previously thought. Dont know. What will have been the driver for him boss to perpetrate this attack . Now, at this moment in time, what do we know about from us is here . Well, there is some speculation over that. One of the most plausible explanations is that the sponsors off from us. Were interested in stopping the roof prussia mall between those role and saudi arabia, which would have been really a serious blow to remain in strategy in the region. But i think we can take this completely for granted. At least the United States say they have no indication that iran directly to the order of this attack, but we can be sure it couldnt have happened with out during an approval. And as for homeless they always have an interest in dealing faithful blows tail. So, oh, so linda is a can quickly, after that, we know this wasnt the making for many months over year already. And the saudi american ties that have been exposed. This just happened recently. So theres something deeper that connecting more to what it was saying about. Were almost as good heading, ideologically, what were seeing as, as the hatred running deep and, and how it channels the actions of this organization. And over all of this is taking place in the region that was already a tinderbox. What potential reverberations where we use the most as well honestly speaking, as im talking to you from the northern paul to visa next to k file and is why was driving around in my hometown here in northern israel, seeing all the tang single, the military where looking towards north to the liberties bold. If we ask ourselves, how will this is well, i react how we get on react. It is i must, did meet his and hes ready again leaving now and being in northern israel, very reassuring to see the strong u. S. American response sending a have a carrier here today, region to send a message dont as President Biden said, dont back off, and us foreign minister also traveling to the region as well. Lets take a closer look at the homeless attack and its potential reverberations in the region or how much and as long as terrorist groups fired more than 2000 rockets of israel on october 7th alone. It broke through the barrier around the gaza strip, using explosives and bulldozers. According to his really reports, some 1500 militants breach these really military block heater cause i into is rarely territory and killed more than 1200 people on the street and in their homes. Including young people attending a music festival, about 150 people, including women and children, have been taken hostage. They are running head of state ayatollah come in a praise the attack, while rejecting accusations that had been orchestrated by the miller regime. But some analysts say that a large scale attack of this nature would have not been possible without support from t. Ron no one has repeatedly threatened to destroy its perceived arch enemy israel. For years the regime has aided the militant as long as group. Im us, providing money, weapons and training it all. And his also threatened israel with the help of hezbollah. Its ally, militia, and 11 and widely considered a terrorist organization. Hezbollah immediately expressed solidarity with moss by firing rockets that the is really bored or israel defeat from us by military means data. Id like to put that question to you, but coupled with some of the language that is rarely leaders are using, theyre talking about eliminating how mosse, when they describe their intentions. Garza is a dense urban area. So most fighters are surrounded by civilians. So what is a campaign of illumination . Look like when we dont know exactly what, what these rarely walton will be a. But according to what, luckily to say we, we will have to expect a ground offensive food, who gaza strip. And i think that these really minutes the is, is capable of off of destroying the structures of the most in the product because of st. Many how most fighters will die. Perhaps most of them many is rarely soldiers will die. Of many civilians where die no matter how careful these rarely military proceeds. And i dont think there is, there is any alternative if. If the government, if theres really government really wants once to go to all the, all the guys in cities, daniel, the use for and policy chief and a number of other leaders as well. Have warned that is real as it embarks on a military campaign. Most respect, International Law avoid harming civilians. Is that Wishful Thinking . It will be hard to do that, but if you take International Law quite literally International Law does recognize the fact that civilian casualties happen in wars. International law says that warring parties need to take every measure they can in order to protect civilians. But what is sure is that we will see a lot of civilian casualties. And we will also see media and policy campaigning from the from us side. And also in many are up states that will accuse is roll off, needlessly, slaughtering promise tippins. This will be part of the political fight around this company. You recently wrote that making peace with him us. Its impossible out of the question. So i know its early days, but what does that mean . How does this end . Well, i think making peace with from us is um, at least close to impossible because off its funding, thats the fundamental list, religious audiology. And also because its not up to how much low to make peace is all so an instrument of uranium foreign policy. I think if we want to settle the conflict around from us for good, then it would need a grand supplement in the middle east that would somehow at least limit the confrontation with iran from israel, but also from many arab states. This is part of the context, at least for the want, and well come back to that point, but its shiny. Let me ask you about the hosted situation. How mouse has some 150 is really hostages, including old and young people. Children, mothers, it has threatened to murder them. If is real attacks in the gaza strip indiscriminately without warning. Do you think that will deter the, is really authorities, especially they said want um, all the statements weve been hearing from is really officials is that theyre going to fight homeless as if they dont know. Hostages only may be in specific cases when they know on of specific a place where theyre being, how they might, because my detour them. Um, its a, its a, its a terrible position to that, that it puts these really leadership in. You cannot that they dont control guys or they dont know whats happening in the underground level of the tunnels and gaza and where these people are hitting. Theyre not even sure how many of them are theyre held by how much. And how much is very purposely hiding that a to use that i wouldnt put the pass them to use the cost of theirs in any way possible. And that israel is always, its always a touchy subject as well. And this has specifically um, the greater the alkali from the public will be the harder which will be for these related to ship to take to, nor this topic. Over in the past, israel has participated in hostage exchanges. In fact, the current header from us in gaza was a member of a mass group that was swapped for one is really present our name. Me give that shot. Charlotte. Um, do you think any kind of negotiations would be going on now . Is there any way to try to effect such a swap at this time whether attempted negotiations, the cutoff via egypt, actually as one reads via germany as well. We have a different dimension. Now as your right dimension, get actually towards one person was exchange to around 1016. 00 and prisoners in each row. We have now around 150. 00 is riley, a prisoners or a is ready victim. So you thinking the in the guys of street, young babies, all the old people and they must say it is a challenge. Talking is a journalist, it is a challenge to talk about the things to talk about the human sufferings of these people. Actually to also talk about the human suffering of this either population in gods in a, in a remote manner. Maybe the cause is eating these real. And it is rather rather difficult. And i asked myself in order to avoid from the destruction that awaits. Now the guys in the street from in these riley offensive, i think that it is the role maybe over the arabic world. It is definitely the role of the philistine india spread through sound. A clear voice that whatever from us has done and made it actually is not the thing that is being done on behalf of different assuming people it is not this thing that has been gone for the palestinian struggle for, for independence. And thats might be give the perspective that might give it way to relieve it guys and relieve is right from us and avoid civilian casualties on both sides as much as possible. Are you hearing voices like that . For example, from members of photography, which is usually viewed as the moderate palestinian representative. Are there to answers to this question . The arabic silence especially to silence of the palace. Do you mean a follow me . Ill follow me and the science of the kind of thing and gas pro is painful in our years, especially those of us who have been struggling side alongside with the philistines, for palestinian and states was about to leave in israel, we see a new role of the jewish arabic entry hose, we see voices, we hear voices of solidarity. And regarding these a, these attacks with the voices, we hear voices a say. The says nothing to do is to put a scene, is dr. Lease has nothing to do. And with the wheezy sloan, but again, the silence of dependency in india spread the silence of the policy in, in a far t is painful. We also need to keep in mind most of the, those muslim victims among the israelis and still being bombarded. There are many muslim arab is really sharing destiny and faith with israel, his shoulder to shoulder update of those Palestinian Civilians in gaza. Israel has called on them to leave, undoubtedly as its considering a ground defensive. But where are they supposed to go . Egypt for one has refused to setup safe corridors for refugees to leave. The goal is to stay with the there is an area in the gaza strip where they could possibly go in the southeast. And i think that this, that these really military would do a, would be ready to respect the safety of uh, of any persons in, in the area. But quite in general, the simply wont be enough space for guidance, cousins to leave. If egypt does not let them into the country, and it seems as if the egypt will not do that again, if, if it is a tax no matter whether they are all human and terry and cory doors inside or outside of kaiser menu, civilians will die. Daniel, can you say a word about, again, how you see the further progression in the gaza . Lets say israel does conduct this campaign to eliminate from us. What does it have to do after that we occupied gaza . It has been profoundly reluctant to do so. It left more than 20 years ago and has, has attempted to contain rather than to occupy. Will that change . Well, i think it might change. And actually when you talk to members of deals really military and to some politicians behind closed doors, they will tell you that maybe it was really a mistake to move out of fargo and 2005. And that it has been evident that you comp control this place from the outside that you can prevent it from becoming a time boomed, that explodes and regulating tables. So i think this is definitely knocked out of the question, but i think we also have to keep in mind that there are also problems brewing in the west bank. And this could be another problem that those little has to deal with either politically or security wise, maybe even within the course of this conflict. So let me ask um, im gonna switch focus a bit and come back to how this could have happened and shiny. If i look at the headlines in israel, i see headlines like net on yahoo is recklessness. Has brought war upon israel. Thats a quote from heart of thats the left leaning is really newspaper. Despite the mood of National Unity or at least solid there the would you say that this is provoking criticism and is the debacle as much a political one as a military one . Well, i, everybody feels something is off right, left strong, supportive of nothing. You know, everybody understand. This is an unprecedented failure. This is an unprecedented shock and trauma. And there are attempts mostly from above, from politicians to put poultry politics aside. But the rage is such that these voices cannot be taken for too long, and there is no announcements. And yeah, has been the Prime Minister for over, i mean, for 16 years, almost other than a short interval. Last year, he is appointed many of the heads of the security and defense apparatus. He is come been complaining to be mr. Defense. This his claims for fame and failing. And this point is going to be something somethings very hard for him to dodge. So i think also if we want to stay away from civic, go look into politics. This is the role of leadership taking responsibility. There is really people, many of them feel they have been left without anyone taking responsibility, defend for themselves during that attack and ending the days before they are still following with the quick need that is there and various response from the government. So we have a has to go, hadnt had we have to sit together, get, are you with us . Leaders are saying that egypt actually warned israel about 3 days before the attack. That Something Like this might be coming. And it seems that from us and part through this information managed to low the is really Security Service says into a false sense of security. So how was that possible, and what does it tell us about the vaunted military unintelligence power . Like im, im not that sure that the, the intended intelligence failure is as big as it is being depicted right now, simply because how mazda is a very professional, very secretive, heidi, highly ideological organization. It is capable of hiding some things, especially because the is rarely, as were expecting a similar attack, not from the gaza strip, but from the north for 4 months already. So im not that sure that, and youll always have to expect that your Intelligence Services dont get prior information about operations. They are not perfect. Its a very, very hard job that has been extremely successful for decades. But things like that happened. And that is why the, on such a board or you need the military. But the military wasnt that, theoretically it should be one division. Lets say about 2025820000 soldiers. They were not there. So thats the failure of the military leadership. And of the Political Leadership, and i agree, some months after, after this war has ended, i believe no time yahoo and some others will have to leave and nothing yahoo has now gone into a unity government with the centrist Opposition Leader benny guns, who has a great deal of military experience, but the extreme right wing members of Netanyahus Coalition remain in the government as i understand it. So what if anything will change as i would as long as please to rephrase your question and it will meet nathaniel was forced into a government of National Unity and we, we had to wait for 5 days for the government of a National Unity to be formed we had to wave where to wait for 789 hours between before and it then, you know, who is actually usually he jumped in front of every camera before he talked to the east. Rodney, people explaining what is going on. Actually the only active Political Leadership that we have seen in the east round in the past few days came from us president joe biden. It did not come from these really leadership anything to follow up. Im lucky to steinberg just said the military was not there. Where was it . The question is, where was it . I know these are questions that will be discussed after the war is over, but we know thats and the way the military and this, you know, reflects upon your question about the right wing the right extremist thing. These really government has created many provocations in the west bank through the set 3rd movement into east ran. The army was forced to take care of those pro vocation. So we ask ourselves, where was the military, what is the role of the political a, of the Political Leadership in israel, in allowing this horrible attack tools to happen and, and im sorry to say, hoping to do the same, but hes right, the attorney, i will not survive at least for these blood these day for the jewish peoples things. 1945. But and these really put these really politics as things 1011 months, anything else but the rational. So we will have and see if we will have to wait and see that. So id like to briefly, you know, i, the failure is in, in is, is in the macro will not into the details of what happened to the intelligence. The failure is the short sightedness, the failure is the arrogance, the failure is the lack of prospect. But that to me, always not, you know, has given or not given to the region to the past. And for many years this is where the failure is. Let me come back to another dimension that was covered briefly in our report that we saw earlier, and that is iran of ongoing support for her mouse. And for his paula, daniel, you have called his bullet iran sharpest sword. So 2 quick questions. If i may, what do we know about it runs involvement in the attack itself, whether there was explicit for knowledge and intentionality and secondly, what do we think about whether his bullets well jump into the fray . Well, as for a one and its involvement, as ive said, its inconceivable that this would have happened with out iran knowing and approving it. There have been reports from lab and on that there was a meeting between uranian from us and his bull leaders. On monday before the attack, this is not a confirmed report. So we should treated with caution. But it is possible that iran was closely involved the police to them as an observer and that as for the play you want to take place now. As for his bullet, as well as mainly so strong because it has a huge arsenal of miss ons. Not all of them are really advanced ms signs, although there are some guy the precision as long as among them. But the sheer number of miss oil could cause a huge problem for is really messiah defense, which as we know is probably the most advanced in the world. I dont think that his beloved once to enter with a fight at the moment. Theres a tit for tat up the north, but this could escalate and it is already escalating. You know, our title asks whether this will change the middle east. Could we see this turned into a regional intern even an international consecration . Its uh, plausible scenario. If his ball intervenes is by his paula caesar sees itself forced into a consultation with israel. That is, that is as a scenario. And thats the very reason why we have seen the movement of the american across the carrier towards the eastern mediterranean. I hope that we will see a relatively short floor in gaza, but im not quite sure that that this will be, will be the reality in the coming weeks. Im afraid well have to leave it there. Thank you very much to all of you for being with us today. Thanks to our viewers for tuning and see you soon. The into the conflict. So with sim sebastian the middle name group come off smashes in days. Well, im trying to, im the former Prime Minister whos almost blamed should the yahoo resign . Yes. Do you think you will come pick . He says he lives on d. W. As hes got issues with a lot say, well the little guys, this is the 77 percent. The platform for the issues page share idea you know, on this now we are not afraid to pass and then it gets to talk to the young people clearly have the solution, the future of the 77 percent every weekend on dw, the, the the the, [000 00 00;00] the a love and respects the this is seat of the news and i from the land more than a 1000000 guys and all told, evacuated to the south of the territory. Israels ministry has told gaza, said he civilians to relocate within 24 hours as its forces per pay for an expensive ground. Defense that kind of sending Officials Say more than 1500 people have been killed and is rights. Also coming up americas top of the mass of rise in georgia and foretold with palestinian betus anthony blinking has already visited