How long can put and hold on to power . Andrea so that tough welcome to complex down. Thank you for having me. You are in contact with whistle blowers and the Russian Security services. Why did per goes and really stop his march toward moscow. Well, because it was never about trying to take power and to take moscow, it was about rand negotiation and his deal with foods and as a minister of defense and the ones you understood that he miscalculated, that he wanted to still to get some figure out the best situation, so his son just columns to most scout, but it was most of it to play for a time when find that he got what you wanted or it is what he could get out of the situation. His stuff. Nevertheless, he got quite far and its being called the most dramatic challenge to put into this already since he came to power 23 years ago is for goes and still a threat to bruton things. The biggest is the biggest pro, a fridays not goes into said bob, xerox. And that was an army, and that was the Russian Security services. Everybody understood that big wars and while he might be extremely adventurous, yes, he has a lot of people on the, his come on several files and people bobs, xerox, and that was the army is what matters now and give us the fact that nobody wanted to stop recording and the Security Services that people have a put in charge of providing the political stability or follow up, which is great. Jim did absolutely nothing as a f, as be uh, local Office Central stuff on the on does Party Candidates themselves and the headquarters that signed a very warning signal to puts an end to moscow bad. Its not all okay. And these people who are in charge of well protected him actually doing nothing. Nevertheless, the kremlin has been trying to dismiss the uprising, calling it minor trouble. In contrast, you have the use top people, not warning, but prudent, has lost the monopoly of force and an unstable rush. It becomes a risk. How serious do you see the uprising and how fragile is the russian state . Again, i think the problem is not the only bit because on here is uh, an extremely interesting color to bobs. Uh, his, uh, the options are limits. He doesnt have any uh, law public support provided by other members selves. There are some that leads, for instance, and ottoman didnt support hamilton. They bought several things to be happened during visit prize. And reg assumed a warning, for instance, fis, um, now infamous of asia aware a big was sticking together. Verify depth to me, to self defense. Yes cor, of the shows that, that you had of the rough minutes for intelligence alex save and a shave and loss. A bod. Xyzzy off taking all gates and actually show youre going to rush them off. Well, thats boss pump. So its a shocking for me and i need it to contact with my source, i sense of Russian Security to services and special forces and ask them what do they think . And they bought the idea of that you have to tell us how those there are some boots for intelligence. Uh, basically saying, while you can have them, if you want. Uh, and my people said, wow, actually i like say it was right. And i think that was even more worth some 4 points. And because in this case you have the most capable element, it says the russian middle tray and Russian Security services, publicly questionnaire and uh, submitted through their site. Given all of that, what youve just highlighted there, how much support do you think from corrosion might have had covertly from inside of the Security Service . It is the military, the leads because i mean, it appeared that his human, his wagner mercenaries that they meant no resistance. Yes, absolutely. The once again, i just wanted to stress as a f, as be decided to absolutely nothing. And they had and they control online. Some like, why did they fail to stop you have any promotion . Is what wagner uprising earlier . Why was the biggest uh, i think the answer is that separate goes on is, is it kind of, maverick is not part of the system. So for the system, for the russian system of intelligent security, 10 minutes restructure, as its really difficult to understand his place and position, everybody understands that its all about putting precaution personal connection. And the problem is nobody knows, for instance, uh, what is this connect soon . As we speak, so maybe its really bad, maybe is getting better, maybe its getting worse. So we dont now the general social, they didnt know at the moment, those uprising what might be that connection. And they just decided to wait and see. You highlighted one particular point in your previous writing, um the fact that the Security Service, in particular, in moscow, they called on wagner fighters to go and arrest your guinea per goes in their own liter. Um, and this is especially extraordinary because the speeds, military counter intelligence, operatives are within wagners ranks. How are you seeing this . Because this is their job, isnt it isnt, isnt it a huge break and loyalty to the kremlin . How would this be being viewed right now by putting himself as a really good question . Because i was this office for People Like Us from outside their selves, the system of the f as be of course it looks like a complete file. These people that put that to water into cumberland involved the problems which might come up out of, of the walk in a group as that was a primary drop. Right . Uh, and as i says be, is not only about to impressions thats about prevention, risk on the same stuff happened. And so they felt that theres upsets are clear about the same times. A problem this puts in is that he is to some extent parts of the system. Just remember that he is a trained kids, youd be office and in the similar circumstances. So 2 years ago and thats and thats 1. 1 is it kids youd be in some wild people as a pilot and theyre all wanted to stage occluded, taught and topple gorbachev most of the ranks uh inside of the kitchen being decided to do exactly is this same to wait and see whats in did absolutes in less thing, his friends people, he now respects and who on now is a ill on, is a key positions. And as a Russian Security services, they all do the same. They did absolutely nothing, nothing and not to not to one. So youll have this strange, emotional thing, shape and all false statement that actually when something really big is happening is not up. Theres a Security Services to decide when to opt, which is absolutely uh, concert protective uh, but never said that. They have it up. Senior pentagon officials have highlighted that the uprising highlights poor coordination between the military and other Security Services. Can you give us a window into how deep the connections are, for example, between the military rushes Security Services and wagner in particular . Well, 1st of all, im, i do not completely agree with this assessment. Just remember that as of paid time off is uprising. The russian army kept finding that youre brand new and comprehensive. That it was no collapse. All fall is the Russian Forces as a buckle field. So the only things a face to face and the auction to deal with was this particular muted in offering garzon. And here you have all the problems. Beller says lucas jenko said that he ultimately procured the deal that sa precaution has. Wagner force has a band and theyre march toward moscow. Is lucas shank over 2000000 humiliating fulton, or did he save him . Well, i think it was the whole. Think about bello sound . Look, i think i participation of cause made puts in locust during the week. Just remember that for many, many years push it was promoted with things that idea and making a sacrifice. The idea of National Southern see that was such a big thing that you can ball just to find all kinds of pressure on this if you want to while to promote this thing. And that is why they got those are impressions in our country because it is a wake off national, southern, and mile ones. You guys will put problem put you on. Got the kids a real problem. While he left his mind a popped up uh, alexander walker, son gotta go fix his internal program. So it does look for pollution. Really good. Lucas franko also saying that promotion is now in bella roost. Although theres been no independent confirmation. He also hasnt been heard for it from in more than a week. What do you think is happening to per goshen . Is the soul live . Well, its difficult to say, but i think hes still very much alive. Uh, 1st of all, what is well, in his grades this situation is really difficult to understand what is going on bobs better of several interesting science stuff. Default the whole think about criminal charges. So its changing. But as far as i dads and the started as far as that, everybody got it as a criminal charges fund that adult, which is a big thing because one puts in and to come in, wants to expel somebody for real. Well, you have the criminal charges, it gets to be a spouse. And for instance, in my case, im a wanted man in russia and i have criminal charges against me. So if i ever get back to the county, i am facing up to 10 years in prison, and that is a guarantee i was never getting back. But for precaution, they decided to make an exception, saw that it was no criminal charges. So legally speaking, but as nothing to prevent him from getting back to the same pitch as a boat to moscow to all that now its just safe at the spots of his business and pot for goes. You know, i mean hes, hes been promised this immunity. We have to say um, but he got richard who is this close ties to food now put in his actually mentioned that the finances of precautions lucrative catering firm will be investigated. How do you see that . Is this a signal that he could actually be prosecuted for financial crimes or, you know, was put in just trying to take them down a notch. I think its about some parts of precautions to a business business and bar because of the cost of it. There is some companies that are assigned, theyve been that for years spot, they had no chance. Now theyve got this chance. So that trying to win this. So contracts provided by the government times administer of defense Model Looks Like regardless balls, skills and his people are still important for put an address in several areas, for instance, in africa. And it looks like, uh, coming doesnt want to completely dis, bond walk now and walk around the duration, say in the middle list and africa progression had been railing against the top military brass for months. Ultimately, he said to the kremlin state of reasoning behind the war and ukraine was false, wanting to put and allow the threat posed by promotion to fester for so long. Well, pushing on the stands, thats very clear that even in last are of unpopular wars could produce very popular generals. And these generals, at some moment my become a political fact that happens many times in russian history. Pushing understands that he understands fights. He cannot let that go. So he wanted to have some accounts of balance to that, some sort of maverick from my expose of programs in submitted tray and to peep, mid trade generals off balance. Thats exactly what was the role of precaution for all of these months. Lets talk about the Wagner Miller scenary group and what happens to them next theyve been thrown into disarray. The fight for control is said to have just begun. Lucas tango has invited mercenaries to relocate to an abandoned military base in the country. There are some reports of new satellite images appearing to show tents being set up in belarus to that effect. Is that their best offer to go to bella roost and are they likely to take it . Well i think that that some moment which in just decided to relocate robin or to save his public image as someone who is still on in control of the situation and the, because it will suck cumulate and to have well by the soldiers martian of the theyre all its in russia, so he decided to really catch him, him to bellows. But of course, i mean, wagner has no other customers by the russian stage. Billow is very much penetrated by uh, by the russians. Uh so its not like he was expelled to some independent country and out a free trump law scott, thats not true. The us says that right now, theyre continuing to see some elements of the wagner group in russian occupied territory. And ukraine. Ukrainian intelligence says that wagner will not fight in ukraine any more. Do you think that wagner in ukraine will go willingly, and its about an interesting question that we have some reports written to actually today that so was not about office to say is it is the statement that they stopped recruiting people. Uh right now for fonts and then ukraine bots um the language should be used as them because as like we have stuff in for now. So maybe the outpatient for some of the office over to full may be able to get be given, then you name. So, but i think somebody minutes of this group, the fonts and as they did before, lets talk a little bit more about how russians are viewing all of this ukranian presidency. Polanski says that moscow has been suffering full scale weakness. He calls it for goshen. Has apparently tapped into the view that prudent is and is a corrupt system where the ruling, the lead had been emerging themselves and are more interested in pleasing, put, and then doing what is right for National Interest to ordinary people. That, thats the message which seems to have resonated how high is the dissatisfaction with putin and food newsome. Uh well, uh, is the middle tray. Uh, the rear is a clear uh, spinning sized russian generals as old as on not extremely competent. And its a, its a very interesting in our wonderful situation because it is right now that the russian army is the case of this new found confidence in themselves. Because actually is, are you crazy on the fence or physics seem to slow all that is the perception of the russian army is not my perception about thats the Holiday Season situation. They base fear that it could be a really big know of a c. Its not that big and not back horrible. Uh so that gets in this sense alpha. Uh, that sound not actually bad, bad. Uh, at the same time, but keep lame is age and youre all saying that thats why they supported to some extent of silence. They may be people isnt criticism because they share the same feeling, but it does move that, that ready to just dont think about it. So they still got approval and the sitting side. So we need to find visible federal very long time. Is that, but heres how the, the head of the c, i a, is framing the situation. He says that disaffection with the war will continue to know away at the russian leadership. And that it creates a once in a Generation Opportunity for the c i a to recruit spies in russia. You are very familiar with the Security Services. Do you think that the c, i will find Fertile Ground for recruitment as well. I think rather, we, as you know, theres a lot though visual thinking. Yeah. We are trying to identify every sign of, of descent as a, as a signal about the system a will in that. But the blood collapse, and i know as a and the metal for several months, i would be extremely, i would be more cautious to be honest. Its not likely that lots of people accepted xyzzy. I was a war. Includes, is a russian the, lets put in those who are you good at conducting repressions, especially against his own people who have several s as the people in general that have ministers sends out government us in jail. So it is a big thing for the Russian Society, and lots of people in jail is found. The stands i, thats actually there is no way for them, but to stay and to stay loyal to food channel. So i would, i would say that that posts. Yeah, its might end up as soon as see uh, but i would be cautious also the program is bad to say which with the best people find that it was a chance for defection with and right now for the russian, that is because a folder restrictions. So for travel, im in the truck with easy to, to make it through europe. All it isnt that the stays, the chances that the same people as a russian. That is what think, ok, maybe now i start spying because im any concerns about to give, give me a chance to, to move on to, to the events and not just stays that quite slow. Im putting um, since the uprising he has been seeming to be bent on projecting normalcy and stability, weve seen him ramping on public appearances. And the week after the uprising, he gave a number of national addresses for training the rebellion. As a heroic episode, he travelled to the Southern Region of dag stand, where he sipped local cognac. He spoke about growing regional tourism. He even attended a Technology Fair in moscow. What are russians make of that . Or are they buying it . Well, no, not all of them off gums, so especially in big stages, bugs and proven says you have lots of people who are still very supportive of bulletin and they accept as a russian propaganda adoption of the of. And so that puts in my effort to avoid blog shit on the assignment stuff you did actually have that. It was not real big launched it. Uh, except for this unfortunate pilots and it is appropriate for the middle of tray. Not for that population provision. I mean his rants, they really offer this alternative to the war propaganda. For Many Russians in unvarnished glimpse from the front lines you highlighted the useless and unjustified losses. Convulsions really go back to regularly scheduled programming while thats a good question, but i think what that goes to the wanted to do, he wanted to become some sort of, uh, uh you will, the press if for sense of Russian Society ill be of as a license to i times the russian, it leads to mobilize the rest of society, puts in does one side. He still thinks that its possible to win the visible default. The total monthly is ation. But we dont know what might happen if say you agree on the offensive goes with the success a fall. We just dont know that might change the situation. And if that changes, they might be new space and your own property goes on, then people are, can, lets talk about prudent for us to shore up his power. First of all is a crack down under way. As that is one thing of which is clear. Uh, also it gives the services as army as a national gout. They loan. Is it less than that . Why do you have a program . Is it oh no. Such a circle of pollution is about to not to interfere. And i think it is a very bad signal for points and because, well, what if tomorrow some of the guys say could do it . Of all someone, all is the rest of the security council. Now come opposite the Russian Television and say, wow, ill wasnt provides you major, go to hell, and we need to replace, give someone that would be a huge confusion by this class right now. You. If you look at the overall situation, though, russias most senior generals, they, theyve dropped out of view since the uprising im thinking about general harass him off hes reporting not appeared in public. Hes of course, in charge of the war effort and ukraine. The kremlin has also been deflecting questions about the whereabouts of general sort of the can, who is seen as aligned with precaution and believe to be detained. What do you think is happening to them . A while its really difficult to understand. Ive been checking the information about so vague and for all these days it looks like sort of forced by to was sent to prison. We kind of confirmed them, but he said it seems that he was at least interrogate as. And its quite interesting vibes we are here and visit almost a bows in middle of the region. Youre also about not about Security Services, which is a very interesting thing. While you have these people, im is f as b as a national guard. All of the Security Services pulled in charge of putting us personal security and political stability. It is yet all the questions that come to has its all about some of the trick. How much impact do you think these events of the past weeks are going to have on the war and ukraine . Um, its a good question because on the one hand we see of that walk in our didnt participate directly, at least in big numbers and, and trying to selves your brain contra offensive. It is a jump, was a regular russian army, while at the same time was there is still a very capable force and they have is reputation. And there are some military yet, there is new confusion now because of the obviously im using it stays by longer because of this policy who upheld full opposite to nothing. Well, which is of course, enough of as was about to be spiel of his pilots, were killed because of a on another the russian heroes. But it was the middle tri are here and is that, that it would be no justice for the, for, for his policy. And that samuel is, nobody would be prosecute that for killing this, this policy. And that credit and you confusion, it means that it has a re, regular army still finds in the bottle failed. You will have a number of product miniature companies as an ottoman now is looking at his product mutual company, as well as some suspicion because these guys already approved frederick and kill russian soldiers and they can get away the fed. So these kind of confusing and long dollar my sites, the situation is about the felt the ukrainian counter offensive has, is not yet achieved significant success, according to natos Top Commander in europe. Do you think that now there is more pressure on putting to end the war . No, i dont think so. I think what, pushing on the stance is, uh uh very was such a big investment in inside. Yeah, of your brand new encounter offensive. Uh, wallace was a big thing for, for that you brand new and grabbing them as far as are you bringing latest ship. It was a big thing from nature for the west. In russia, it was played as a sign that the russian army well behaved at the and actually it was not extremely uh, great. Uh, is it big enough to walk by the way, i guess in better there is this. Uh, there is a strange feeling now, especially because its all about history and the 2nd baltimore and all of that. So there is these ideas shaded by man, yet by the russian army, olga stats of war. Uh, and the very bad shape, but a guessing best uh on the way and put you on this trying to capitalize on vis spelling. Id like to ask you one last question about the uprising, the wagner uprising because many are concerns that if food does fall, the concern is that a replacement leader could be worse crumbling, critical krakowski said the following week, glimpse how the regimes inevitable fall is likely to come about and the forces that well seek to take over so called national patriots, led by another fog. If you look at the big picture, do you think that russia is ultimately doomed to have one sog replaced by another . After putting of all our thoughts into it might happen because as a more visible goes, is it more as the russians the sides is getting used to visible . And now the, i guess it is a motional argument and save opposite will because theres so many casualties. Theres so many People Killed and even the people who felt well confused about the beginning of the war. Now they have this fit in growl and my villas. Someone get killed bobbys ukraine. Yeah. So why should that feel . Story and bouts of all. So and some, and some way the support for that was guessing. Well, its not big about its, its most stable and it means that the hostess of the society is a projection itself. Does idea that while its going to be with a long war and in the long war, you get people like general sand as why, while using the very top language a more and more and more popular pop law. And at some moment they might get some miles from position in depaula. Yeah, thats true. How long do you think putting has well, i think is we had spoken about 2 years ago so that definitely have to leave it there. Thank you so much for joining us. On conflicts on or thank you, the what can be done in times of climate change. Can we adapt and more importantly, can we even stop it . We look to brazil believes in south africa to ideas that hope to defy climate change. 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