Professor of International Affairs at the new school in new york and the great grand daughter of style in successor nikita khrushchev. She has spent months of the war in moscow as russia prepares to face a ukrainian counter offensive. How shaky is prudence position . Gustavo, welcome to conflicts out. Thank you for inviting me. When you spoke on this program last year, you said that exposing the shortcomings of the russian army has caused a lot of prestige damage. How much worse is it now for russia and prudent himself, especially on victory day . Or i think the question of prestige is no longer that, that relevant for puts in the way rush or decided to continue approaching, decided to continues that were not paying attention to things like that. But it keeps saying that the special military operation is going to be completed is going to cheat whats goals and its no matter how long it will take. And essentially at this point, it seems known matter what kind of price its going to take. So in some way, on victory day they had to parade it was slot, somewhat subdued, it wasnt grand, it was only 15 minutes which and spoke for about 10. But essentially it is a very matter of fact approach. Now we are at war while shes at more and you take her to leave it, but basically russia is going to be at war. And those who are not agree with this kind of approach are going to be eliminated. But weve heard that numerous victory day parades theyve been scaled back. Theyve been canceled. Red square was close to the public since the end of april and assign of security fears. Is it assigned a weakness for prudent and, and what do you think russians are making of it to . Well, it is, i mean, a sign of weakness basically not just that, but also sign of weakness that every or almost not all, but almost every conceivable freedom of freedom of having rights, freedom of expression, freedom of free speech and so on and so forth. Had been completely, almost completely scaled back, curtailed, forbids. And so thats a weakness because week stayed from very weekly buddies and rush about has very, very weekly buddies. So yes, it is a sign of weakness from the west in perspective. But from the washing perspective, it is a sight of strength is that the world is against this. Its a hybrid war. Naval is getting closer and closer to our borders. We were right to begin the, the operation as the crumbling says, and therefore, no matter how russia or pushing or crumbling looks uh from the point of view of the west, they are going to push their own right away. And why should it is . I mean that i spoke about it, it hasnt changed, it was a great sense of despair last year, great sense of disbelief for, for many, many months. And now the despair and disbelief actually turned into a complete just sort of surrender to the fate. And also a lot of anger, a lot of anger against the crumbling, but also a lot of angry against everybody who, who pushes russia to that break as many russian c. And against that backdrop of russia has, without providing any evidence. It has accused ukraine of attempting to assassinate putting in a drone attack on the kremlin. Theres a lot of speculation around this incident. So im saying it might have been stage as an attempt to gain sympathy at home, or potentially a false flag that might lead to something else. What do you think it was . What do you think the kremlin strategy might be . Well, im, when you, when we started this set, because with, without any evidence, you know, theres, its a war. Theres a lot of things that both sides are all sides involved in it. Claim that has no evidence, and yet they claim. And so sides decide wherever which side your all and decide who youre going to be. But theyve been a lot of conversation about a key of actually attacking moscow, attacking crumbling those leaks, leak documents, pentagon documents, and then we dont know exactly how true they are, but theyve been suggestions there and even some evidence. Apparently that key of a did have or have had such a b as we heard it from the, from the key of authorities that we know just recently would go to a tek rations on every territory. Im, unless ukraine, uh, ukraine um wins. So its north without uh, you know, its not an entire speculation to save. May have been an act of a kid, the ukranian army, it could be a full slab, but the thing is, the full slab should be then i mean, a lot of places cancelled. But the red square parade we made, thats the main square. So put him really measures this. Okay to, to spend because it around the style in victory bay parades, anybody and really his speech today. He talk about brothers and sisters, very much like style in there during, during world war 2. So it is, i think we, we really dont have enough information to say who did that it could be ukrainians. It could be a full swag that could be sympathy. But best certainly for the russians, the worse they attacks and russia is actually, it is better for the crumbling because it allows them to push that propaganda. The war is a war and we did what we did in 1945. So its no longer in defense of war, its actually defense. The war and more fighting is, of course blooming, russia and ukraine, both preparing for the next phase of the war as a ukrainian counter offensive looms on pulling doesnt have in many victories. As youve highlighted, ukraines counter offensive meantime, will be backed by thousands of new western donated Armored Vehicles and freshly trained troops. How high are the stakes for him right now . Personally . Well, the stakes are high because it is, i mean, to begin a war. Same thing, its going to be fast and clear and all good. It didnt happen this way. So they, the stakes are high because now hes only way say to stay in power to continue to say that i am the only ones who can protect you from. Uh, western aggression is me. So for the actually the war is something that is somewhat cherished politically because he needs it. He needs it unless he wins. He actually needs the war to continue with. The law says with the, even with losses, because somebody would be some gain, some losses of ukrainians itself, said that it would be really difficult. And certainly the western adviser said would be difficult for ukraine to take, to take back all the territory. So to some degree for both in the long, these continues as long as he can northwind, the better it is for his political standing, unless it goes so badly and so sideways then the, that the leads around him and the people in russia actually say, well, maybe we should reconsider, but i would not see that happen quite quickly or any time very soon. There have also been reports of strikes in russian hill territories, areas around the border with ukraine and oil depot and crimea to trains the railed. If it doesnt look good for the military leadership, you, you also had wagner. Chief, you gave me per goes and recently calling for more munition for his fighters and bach mood. Even threatened at one point to pull his, his fighters out is the military leadership also in trouble as well . Yes and no. I mean theyre in trouble because they are not winning. But those strikes, by the way that you suggested actually confirm for the at least for the propaganda, the business, the criminal strikes, but also by the ukrainian side. And they are, for it actually, once again, strengthens the strength, is put in the argument, is that look, this striking against us everywhere . What all this western shiny weapons. So how can you even argue that we should we lead retreat and change and change . It would be a to know the middle. Truth is not doing well, but he goes on with his kind of a team. Bagel is a good play on his spark. Hes going to berries everybody and because hes so needed. So suddenly its going to change everything in his favor. All right, im sorry. Did of the chechen fight or the kitchen president who is sort of rough, broke maddie along with precaution 1st said what were going to take over. But then she went a guess free. Gordon too, and said well, you should have finished your job. Pretty bush and said hes going to withdraw on the 10th of may. Hes north withdrawing on the 10th of may. So once again, i mean, yes, theres absolutely sign of coughing me and disconnect within the leads within the army. It still doesnt mean that rush, shes losing to the point of having completely lost the war. Its just that discombobulated sion that in fact made it allow the war to go for longer and longer, longer. But lets get back to the public and, and what their opinion is and, and whether or not that might be changing because in russia, some pro war bloggers there, theyre actually warning now that russias front line could collapse in the face of the ukranian counter offensive. There seems to be growing anxiety over the capabilities of forces combined that with us estimates that some 20000. 00 russians have died so far. And thats just in a inbox. Moved alone, according to those estimates. What is the mood right now in, in russia . Is it turning, you know, not really. I mean, i know its just such a case of which will thank you because it was already in fact the blog is the military beloved is as you may remember about 6 months ago, it was kind of the same anger and saying, well, we need to push we need to do more than it subsided. Now its rising up again. Okay. But um, you know, weve, weve also parallel to that weve, weve seen rush start releasing a new Foreign Policy concept at the end of march, a radical departure from the previous Foreign Policy concept. For the 1st time since the cold war, the kremlin has formerly made clear that it sees washington as its main adversary, which you alluded to there. But it is also had the sweeping goal that its announced that it is a ration power. Could the spring more destruction and complex, thats what the International Crisis group is saying. What do you expect a legit, fictional, psychotic National Goals . I mean, its kind of sup, 13th century, suddenly in the 21st, which has been that whole war and the whole puts an idea. So all together is sort of the pun, slattich state, because they talk about the unique civilization. Which in fact, even in the cold war would be in itself because in the cold war, especially up to style. And thats the idea was that they, that the socialist system is actually part of the global system. Now russia efficiently says, we are unique thing that were going to basically very start in that its that put in is when one separately, separately taking country. I dont see, i mean, i, i dont imagine russia go any further than that. It does ukraine. And even in todays speech for just said, we are defending that done. But so, i mean, he didnt even say way of defending the whole ukraine. He said, you know, the planning people are with defending the database so they keep kind of keep even up with the sweeping goals of having rushes, a separate civilization. Their geographical claims are. I, i dont want to say more. Thats because they are not, but they are not sweeping. The one thing theyre concerned about is the russian world. What they say, right. Oh, excuse me, a bit concerned about the russian, the russian world. Not necessarily in geographical terms, but in kind of this essential not exist central, sorry, in the, in intellectual terms, in uh, psychological terms and cultural terms and so on. So no, i wouldnt see the army going further. However, i also dont see the army retreating in a peaceful solution. The army, maybe retreating, being, being forced, forced back, but not because they decide to withdraw can neighboring states, so really feel safe because um, according to linked to us documents recently, um the wagner group was apparently involved in an alleged kremlin lead effort to foment civil unrest. In moldova, in the hopes of the stabilizing that pro western government. How concerned should countries like mold over be, and how much damage is put and still capable of as well. I mean, the country is like my dog, but should be concerned because the countrys like mold over, you know, they have romanian language now is the official language. So the more drastic, the countries are against fultons, russia, the more the more uh, damage. Uh, well, i dont know they have military damage, but then theyre not going to subside the efforts to make sure once again, that the russian world, little skinny, or, uh, the model, excuse me, it is in dangerous. So the russian world is in danger. So yes, i mean, the more drastic on to russian sentiment is the more potent eat in the north. Going to give up id, have to influence it one way or another. Id like to take it back to the domestic situation within russia right now, where as we mentioned, you have spent months of the war. In the headlines, we see opposition figures like volley like carlos in jail. And yet you have spoken previously about the silent majority resisting in russia. What evidence have you observed of that as well . I mean, i just looked at the numbers and i tried to lead the read, read the polls, and so 45 people, 45 or 45 percent of the russian population say to support the war or be annoyed against the war. 25 percent of those people actually actively supporting at the other 55 may or may not be in the lets remember that all of this when you are they ask you a question. The bullying is asking you a question. You know that your potential know that im not supporting the special miller transformation can lead to a ras can lead to administrative, administrative punishment, and so on and so forth. So you really have to be quite a quite courageous, but also in actually tell the story elsewhere its, its a silent majority and thats what i mean by silent majorities that you go into the bookstore. Theres old is very petri arctic books of how great russia is. And you know what not, and then of the middle of the, this incredible display of pictures and youll have a George Orwell mark sitting right in the middle of it and says the on the left, the bread, the thing that it said that she and this month so i buy this month because im thinking how, what incredible thing and then i come back a few days late and then theres another George Orwell. Mark. So somebody took just a random month. That was put, there was, it was put, there is a message. I mean, you can see yellow in white arrangements all over and all over must go somewhere. I mean, then not necessarily you would know who makes them but, but they are there, you know, the flow is that range this way or the color is the range. This way, some somehow, so its, its all there. But as i said, i mean i, i left for us in january and then january, they moved was north militaristic, the war was elsewhere. I mean there was still life going on. Now the billboards, the, the anger and that were not winning, were not losing our life is completely finished essentially the way it was. So we might as well, we do have to riley around the flag. And then they said, i mean that anger, the really, the stories absolutely ratcheting up, just because the message is, if youre not with us, youre going to be defeated. Country. Do you one bad . And many, many more russians now more and more, i should say, well, actually no, because we dont know what it is to be defeated country, maybe it is scary. Maybe we have to it least pretend that was supported. So, i mean, youve, youve talked about how this war has strengthened the ukrainian identity. What does happen to russian identity . Its come, its, i mean, thats kind of nationalistic formula when put and says, well, the whole country supports it. Well, no, i mean the 1000000 and have the keys left them in my art, i write this in articles and everything. And people want evidence that they what was correct music . Well, 500000. So because if you could, if you put together all the countries that received thousands and thousands, hundreds of thousands of russians, probably a 1000000 and a half. And im actually being very modest here left to clearly not that mean its a, its a over one percent, almost 2 percent of the russian population. So not everybodys support and its completely front van to they done. If you people are people that everywhere a position is fighting them in that position, sustain deposition left a. They are fighting in monks amongst each other and also rush. Shes now incredibly divided. I mean, puts in did more division to rush of. And donald trump ever managed to do in the United States because its this kind of the khaki color, the military fatigues, identity, which is required, the requested. And then the other one is now the russian school. It is a person in a white coat. So you know about the frail and, and saying, you know, we, we are above all this. So its, its dispersed and identity truck men to the identity. But some require extreme national as and some just say we have to survive. Id like to ask you to weigh in on these reports of a so called re awakening of totality. Your instincts right now in Russian Society with people in forming on each other, like in the solid era, the opposition, as weve mentioned, silence jailed in exile. What sort of Russian Society do you think emerges from this war . I its, its a, i mean we, we goes advice. I mean, i know with every time we say we cry every day and im told, well, you know, ukrainians also crying. But okay. Um, im actually not a fan of collective punishment, so were allowed to cry too, as russians and its, you know, it is lost its, its going to go through cleansing and, and be a cool part. And how dare you malign, rushing any possible way, divisions for decades to come. So, i mean if it really is something that its not just they, we awakening of totalitarian is because pituitary and theres even early, its a total of tears. What would the formulas of left to told the periods was still formulas that suggested that even with drastic measures, were moving forward. Were moving towards something that may make it better where russia is moving. Now, it really just told us formulas of the 13th century closed. 2 in p a soon to be imperial power, as it was in the 13th century. Now it is, we want to go back to being an imperial power. So i cannot envision that the only thing that keeps saying is that George Orwell, in 1994 has really russia is, is, is such. Now the george always hasnt invented that you couldnt have invented whats going on a joint your 2022 with the, with an absolutely horrible consequences of this war. How do you think society of Russian Society eventually will move past the harvest committed . And ukraine, the, the, the allegations of war crimes including force deportation of children rapes torture. Do you hope that the change will happen and happen any time soon . I dont know. I really dont know because i dont know how houses, how societies get over the war crimes. I mean, you know, we have an example of germany, but thats a rare example. Its actually, its more of an exception than it is the rule. So i really dont know what. C its why i think that when i talk about the anger that is rising up, its exactly that is that well, since they are going to eliminate us, were going to get angry, more nationalistic, and thats what i think putting this, relying on how its going to it depends on what the Opposition Leader deposition leaders come back with, depends on who, how the more relaxed and it depends on who are replaced, put in because eventually it will happen. Hes 70 year old man. It all depends on so many things. The one or 2 im so theyre a separate your late secretary of defense. Under George W Bush was saying so many unknown unknowns that i really cannot speculate on that there are some that are saying that the war may may last well into next year. If, if not longer dispute and have another year, is, is time on his side in this for a little, its a in, in a war of attrition. Yes. The time when he said, as i said, i actually think that the longer goes the, the less questions he would have to answer if its not a complete loss, if its more the complete, you know, they running out of old i munition altogether, it is pretty bush and as big version kept, kept saying, kept, kept suggesting, i actually, the beginning of this would probably, even on that program, i said that its, you know, its, and you, again, its done. Its going to last for a long time. I dont see the victory in it. I mean, once again, many unknown unknowns, i dont see victory of it, so its going to be a long war of attrition until until it can no longer continue. So i would even imagine it goes into next year in may be some rem, then somebody may be a full scale. Lets even store the in front of it. I really dont think we, we can know, i mean theyve been at the beginning. It was only 2 weeks and then until january this year and that until the spring and then until the summer keeps going on. And so far, why she is not winning is the way once and ukraine is not, is not losing enough to really want to do something else. And so its a mexican standoff. Essentially, its a horrible, horrible mexican stand up with many, many thousands of people dying. All the time your great grandfather took power in, in russia after stolen died and then he left office and what was a peaceful transfer of power at the time. It was certainly not a foregone conclusion. That, that would happen at that at that time. How do you think fruitless presidency might eventually end for so many unknown unknowns . Um, i dont know. I mean, what depends on the ward depends on how long the russians, which, which, whether the anger of the Russian Society is sort of this whole of the khaki. Katya kala petri it isnt khaki colored identity when over there is who say, well we want to rush it to be a global with on when did some fun slattich state that is slowly turning into into north korea . No, its not a given actually. Yeah its, its more of course youve been garbage in for more essentially flukes and in, in russian history. Then the, then the reality, i think, i mean traditionally possibly of to put in they would be some sort of a reform, but its on a given. I mean it could be, for example, you ask about the military bloggers and other than pre goshen. It could be a military coal, i mean, i know russian that perhaps you see of military coups but all can happen. It could be that kind of a revolution when the, the, the hard like the just the hard line is. But theres really, very militant forces will come to power and say, well, theyre not taking us into the 13th century, imperial crimes, you are fast enough. Thats where we want to be. So it could be a revolution from the right. It could be, i dont see a revolution from, from our, the forces from are kind of liberal for it actually does that. Right. And anyway, i dont see a revolution from the liberal forces. I can potentially see a revolution from the crowd liners and military military forces. But this is, i want to get many unknown unknowns here possibly, but probably not. Soon enough. In september, alexi devonte warned a postwar of russia like post fruits in russia will be doomed to become belligerent and putting this again. Only a parliamentary republic can prevent this. How high are your hopes that russia can eventually move beyond put in and put in . Isnt uh, not height, nor height. And why should try but the way paula man, truly public Everything Else and had some sort of an idea about this by you see all send in that it didnt work out any way. Because the article of power thats top of the power from the kremlin, that personalized presidency as it is a fortune, thats where everybody depends on him and their decisions. Even if that hes not giving direct orders to everybody is pretty much aware, pretty much of a soviet system and type of cruise ship came in. It was a collective government, and very soon it was cruise ship on top. So this is a personalized caribbean power at all times, so i dont have very high hopes for a Better Development of to put in is we have to leave it there and unit cost over. Thank you so much for joining us on conference on. Thank you for your time. Thank you. The, the the, its, the star spc is conservation panda. But what about animals that are less cuddling . They often find themselves on the side like researchers want to change all that and call for more courage to be ugly. The sample size and the 13, and its on the cradle of an ancient civilization. As youve never seen it before. From above, we fly you over eat on and uncover in valuable cultural treasures. A dream tour on a low altitude flight. 8 on from above the 75 d w. The door and 6 because my child was screaming dont take mommy. Reset to my son, your mom, hes not coming back. Over the february 2022, Russian Troops invaded the ukrainian city of computer. It was, we captured 6 months later the occupation was hard to get to the work under Russian Occupation who resisted get out of the issue to collaborate and some people just remained of the posts during the occupation. How can life go on after all the terror . Everyone can endure the fear we felt every day when russian calls starts august 25th on dw the. This is dw news fly from berlin. 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