Is some good news local booksellers are thriving right now in germany pandemic really is a page turner. And welcome to the show im Stephen Beard in berlin its good to have you with us and we begin in germany where the pen dimmock is leaving a deeper imprint on the economy than previously thought thats according to a new joint report published by the countrys leading Economic Research institutes theyve downgraded projections made earlier in the year forecasting now that the German Economy will shrink by 5. 4 percent and 20. Thats more than a percentage point worse than the earlier projections but they also predict a slow recovery compared to prior forecasts infection rates are rising again in germany meeting to new business restrictions. And one of the authors of that report joins me now stefan crudes is head of the Forecasting Division at the kill institute for the World Economy stuff and its good to have you with us. First obvious question what is driving this report what is driving the downgrade from earlier. Well actually its only a week a recovery its not the fact that its a survey of the crisis is now assessed differently actually the profile is that we have seen so far is pretty much the profile that we have projected half a year ago but most of the end tyco measures are in force for longer what we know for seeing is a weaker recovery and this is a showing up in you know our g. D. P. Numbers how hard is it to forecast for a pandemic where we really dont know when things are going to change well actually. The 4 costing risks are obviously higher than in normal times but there are some patterns that prevail even in such a crisis and what is new this time is that are Consumer Sector is affect the heavily by the crisis this is typically this devil lies in part of the economy this is different this time but it was not difficult to see that it would be affected civilly and therefore i think so far were doing a good job in for costing the German Economic Development or ask you about insolvencies right now theres been a ban on insolvencies i believe that were extended to next year across most german states that means the businesses that arent fit to continue can in many cases keep surviving what does that mean for economic recovery if you have what some economists called zombie businesses still on the books. Well obviously this has their effect on the Production Capacity of an economy and we are just concealing one of the important symptoms of this crisis which is a lot of companies. Getting distressed due to the back of business business and were not very happy about the idea or so we have a stall in the publication are of insolvency if not all prolonged again but again this is addressing only as a symptom not the root course of the crisis is and one of the outcomes of off our new report is that the production capacities of the German Economy are now is cest one more than one puts and then had been the case before the crisis arise for those insolvency or lack of insolvency is taken into account their head of the kewl institute im sorry with the kewl institute thank you very much for joining us my pleasure are so as mentioned theyre coping 1000. 00 infections are on the rise across europe and that includes belgium brussels is now closed bars and cafes for a month in an effort to stem the outbreak thats tough for those businesses as well as their suppliers belgians love their beer the country is known for its many varieties and its buyers in pubs but thats no consolation for cutler has been ever since the coronavirus hit in march hes seen sales his own his clients especially the owners have slashed their orders. From one day to the next there were no more orders and no more payments from our customers. As youd expect because the entire Hospitality Industry was closed down but all of a sudden everything changed for months after that our sales were only about 40 to 50 percent of normal. Thats it you asians not likely to improve any time soon to curb rising coronavirus rates belgium has closed all bars and cafes in the capital proselytise for a month through november 8th. And 6 a little cool to see this new decision here in brussels many brewers have lost hope that theyll be able to stem the damage. And were also worried that this will spill over beyond brussels that given the rise in infection rates cathay is in the rest of belgium will also be closed due to the vision. And doing is also worried its hard to say how long local breweries will be able to keep their heads afloat during this long dry spell. Of Financial Markets are holding their breath says vaccine makers turn in reports from ongoing trials on wednesday the mood among ageing investors soured after johnson and johnson reported it had temporarily halted its vaccine trial after a participant fell sick you lilly also paused testing of an antibody treatment of safety concerns the markets are jittery and desperate for signs that a treatment or vaccine will come soon. And for more on that lets go to the financial correspondent in frankfurt Chelsea Delaney chelsea good to see you setbacks are not unusual necessarily in trials which can last years we know why a market so jittery in this case. For a Clinical Trial to be pas temporarily these trials have tens of thousands of people in them so its often that you see someone falling sick but theres just such an enormous amount of expectations of interest in these in these Clinical Trials right now because what we know is that the economy will not get back to normal that we wont see a full recovery in the Global Economy and for Many Industries until there is a vaccine and weve also seen a lot of optimism perhaps a little bit naive li about the timeline for a vaccine some people had hoped it would be ready basically by next month it looks increasingly like its going to take a bit longer maybe early next year and we also do see with these setbacks with these vaccine being halted a bit of a disappointment. Or a chance of dealing with this frankfurt thank you. Is that a brief look nelson the other business stories making headlines. Facebook has announced the ban on advertisements the promote not vaccinating it says the covert 1000 pandemic has highlighted the importance of vaccines social media giant has been under pressure recently to clamp down on disinform ation on its platforms. Ikea the Worlds Largest furniture chain says it will buy back furniture from customers to resell as part of a brief Sales Promotion scheme will coincide with black friday in the u. S. And will run from november 24th until december 3rd and 27 countries. South korean carmaker hyundai will build a new electric vehicle hub in singapore model of which is seen here in the news comes a side comes along side a generational switch at the top of the automaker with chung always on set to succeed his 82 year old father who is chairman. Of the Worlds Largest trade expo for books the Frankfurt Book Fair opens today with krone restrictions in place in germany the book industry has actually thrive during the pandemic smallpox or is a particular bucking the trend of brick and mortar retailers and seeing something of a renaissance there on a small bookstore has been busy these past months childrens and young adult literature are selling especially well now. Crazy about books reading spark your imagination books are wonderful if you have to do is pick up a book. Sales of childrens and young adult literature have seen a 5 percent increase in germany this year but other segments have suffered sales of travel books dropped 27 percent through august year on year. Down had a serious impact on the book industry of course just like in other industries we saw sales drop up to 70 percent on the other hand after the lockdown we saw our sales rise 3 been higher every month compared to last year before you have a thin. Small bookshops have been doing particularly well with a lot. Down in the cancellation of many cultural events many people seem to have rediscovered their love of literature and fair fondness for the book shop around the corner. I can make deliveries whenever even at midnight as an independent bookseller i can be a lot more flexible and people seem to want to support local businesses especially now theyve gotten a taste of what its like when theyre closed. During the lockdown ebooks were popular afterwards people started heading back to the bookshops where they can also get tips on what to do when theyve got more time on their hands. Im tired of with working at home and short time work you might have a bit more peace and quiet to pick up a book in the evening in. The days and. So many small booksellers have been writing out the pandemic surprisingly well. Destry was prepared for a situation like this every bookshop has an Online Platform where people can place orders booksellers got the books and put them in front of their doors for pick up they showed a lot of creativity and commitment and they really brought customers back to the book shops and asked. Our customers are incredibly loyal many of them offered to help me deliver books some brought by cookies or cake or stopped by for a chat through the window of course it was a lovely time in that respect. And now it seems the next generation of book lovers is waiting in the wings. Right nice to see some good news there and heres some more of the glamour is back you could say as fashion week tokyo finally kicked off earlier this week following is postponement in march to to of course the throne of ours and to make now pandemic rules still apply theres a catwalk but no audience and the entire event is being live streams 39 brands are participating in designers are trying to merge real and Virtual Worlds to appeal to fashion he says and style watchers the events runs until saturday. And thats it for me and the Business Team here in berlin as always you can check us out a lot of dot com slash business also on facebook and twitter its russia. Combating the corona pandemic. Where does research stand. What are scientists learning. Background information and news. Hour coronato. Coded 19 special next on d w. And you hear me now yes yes we can hear you in her last years german chancellor well bring you an angle a man called and youve never heard have surprise yourself with what is possible who is magical really what moves her and what. We talk to people who followed her along the way admirers and critics alike how is the worlds most powerful woman shaking her legacy joining us from eccles last stop. Keeping your distance is almost impossible in an overcrowded slum. The World Bank Says over a 1000000000 people face a heightened risk of the coronavirus due to substandard Living Conditions in slums and other informal settlements like in brazil. This is their concerts the population here most in years very high its believed according to our weekly experience that the contamination index on the positive index are high. The United Nations says urban slums a highly susceptible to covert 19 due to a shortage or an availability of clean water sanitation housing and other basic necessities. Welcome to the show im been physical and in burlington for the 1st time in history more people now live in urban areas than Rural Communities and population growth is expected to take place almost exclusively in the world cities and towns a fast pace of urbanization is leading to a growing number of slums poor hygiene and conditions and overcrowding make them much more vulnerable to the spread of a disease. Agent is home to the Worlds Largest raji town. Pakistan some 2400000 residents have to contend with a scarcity of water and Gang Violence its followed by. East of mexico city and to ravi in mumbai both with around a 1000000 residents. 2 of the 5 largest slums are on the african continent in Nairobi Kenya and cape town south africa. People were expecting the bars would wipe out entire slums but it hasnt happened like that the indian slum of dharavi is being hailed as a model for containing the spread of covert 19 it was widely reported to have flattened the curve despite the lack of physical distancing and Contact Tracing officials admit not all deaths are probably registered but Health Experts argue it could be greater immunity in india due to the high incidence of Infectious Diseases like tuberculosis still if its not a virus or viruses that are making life even harder for the poorest of the poor locked down made things even worse. About a 1000000 people who live in this chronic tyro the norm what its multicultural and consciously or not is that if. We did migrants working class families how we would expect to see is a massive 1000 outbreak earlier this year. Instead it effectively contain the spread of the waiters drawing global attention. To control the ball with situation here the authority of this order to measures like aggressive death thing in cleaning all the nice things regular of n. And 14th and then defining containment and the heart will get. The shutdown of all the blood back in march due to the nationwide lockdown which the heart of the heart because of Small Businesses and look shops that had been trading their cue to a standstill. Mamas good has lived in the heart of the for 30 years working as an artisan doing thread book on fabric. After months of sitting up there has just assumed work in his workshop. I live our earlier i used to get orders from clients but now i have to go out and look for them. And i still dont get much work. Theres been a lot of loss i have to pay the room rent and the electricity bill. He says he has never seen a slow down like this. 6 months on with Economic Activity limping back to life most people like up there are still struggling to a living. Example board of all work has been severely affected by the economy was already in bad shape now because of coronavirus people have lost whatever savings they had moving. Authorities in one way bracing themselves as charlie has begun to see infections rising again as restrictions are eased and Migrant Workers are done things like you know we have indoor stability were going to. Know. Where their member. Premodern see we hope to keep on posting them. Their regular house is returning to the street to the changing situation still require a Major Overhaul in how the School Nothing team in strategy. After is if you think things will pick up a bit one says craftsman back from their religion. But he is still expecting it to be hard to make a good living for quite some time to come john friesen is a trained engineer and is doing his ph d. On the scale of slums within cities he says determining their exact size is vital in working out their infrastructure and Health Care Needs especially in a pandemic so john what do we know about covered 900 the fact on slops. I bent. Reason crosssectional studies different slums than by Kenya Nigeria and india showed that with covered 9000 we see a reduction in access to Health Care Services on all sides including preventive so this and we also see that the cost of health care increased the Household Income of the slum dwellers reduced which was also confirmed by the latest report of the published yesterday so basically it sounds like things are going from bad to worse youve studied slums what are your key findings that make this fight against corona even more challenging. I think the greatest challenge is the lack of information and i spect so 1st of all we when we think about covered 9000 we know. That people with cardiovascular disease. Are at higher risk for severe causes of covered 19 but we dont know how many people in slums have cardiovascular diseases and the findings we have sometimes contradictory and 2nd we have to say what we know about the health of a slum dwellers often limited to very specific areas for example. To keep their eye in the hall be or to be in mumbai and a study of ours like you mentioned showed that the majority of. Us does not live in this huge settlements but lives and very small settlements most of them have us the size of nearly a soccer field and. A 3rd we have to say that. We dont know exactly how many people live in these kind of settlements when we look at the population figures vary between 200001 1000000 persons. Or 5 and so we simply dont know how many talk we are talking about. Certainly we could find out these things i mean what do we need to find out about these slums to come up with the right solutions i know youre talking about a huge amount of people in very small areas but what do we need to. Know about i think i have to repeat i think. The most important formation is to know how many persons are living there because if you want to provide infrastructure for basic needs such as sanitation or health care we have to know how many persons are living there and another faith would mentioned i would mention would be that. And we have to be aware of the regional differences to take adequate Counter Measure as a mensa like so we have to know what the similarities are the differences between a slum in bangladesh and a slum in kenya for example. Will the pandemic bring the situation of people in slums and to Greater Public focus i mean an outbreak in a slum can threaten the rest of the city and very quickly. I hope so i mean this interview shows that that we are concerned about these people about these underprivileged people but what i think is important to mention is that we often cause some invisible or the poor and in my opinion it is especially important to conceive the not as as the others but to perceive them as part of our Global Community which we are jointly responsible for so its awareness thats so important but slums here to stay are they part of a reality that just wont change. That think thats a very very tricky question. Since the enormous number of people currently moving into cities worldwide cannot be observed by which we caught plant or farm and settlements and i think these slums are an informant type of settlements are necessary part of organization. But after all people do not live there without reason and i think the goal of. Us as a Global Community should be to provide them with basic infrastructure on the one hand and on the other and give them the opportunity to move on and leave the settlements if they want to phrase and thank you very much for being on the show today thank you. And time to look into your questions about the coronavirus is the w. Science correspondent there. What about long term complications we seek over 1000 disabilities in the future. Doctors or especially worried about the impact of heart damage in patients tissues and storing there is permanence in poses Lifelong Health issues will obviously only know the long term effects of covert 19 all survivors when much more time has passed but there are already indicators that those effects will be significant the doctor who treated british Prime MinisterBoris Johnson last spring all the disease this generations polio its a sobering prediction that implies that he at least expects Long Term Disability related to cope with 19 to grow common and lots of other experts agree with them. And youll know how badly the corona virus has affected impacted the Tourism Industry but many travelers did and still find themselves stranded far from home when the pandemic hit earlier this year including the japanese tourist in peru back in march Jesse Takayama order ticket to see the world renowned ruins of much of peach you wanted to go there for ages but have to put off those plans myself well he got there he hadnt got to see the site yet but while stranded he made a special request to the government to visit the inconsiderate hell and now the government has actually granted his which after a 7 month wait jesse has become the very 1st visitor getting a special tour by the head of the World Heritage site ok guy but thats why its time because have you along today for another of our special so see you tomorrow. Germanys business in the middle kingdom is going well odd how much longer. China as a trading partner is becoming an employee go by free Market Access is becoming more difficult intellectual property theft humans rights violations. How can a business going to. Be shutting. Down 36 w. 9 is going to bring. Kenyas capital city is transforming illegal dump sites into public parks alum mean what you wish was the new make it a place where people want to be a new custom fiasco a trip to the becoming an environmentally friendly metropolis. Call nairobi is bringing nature back to the city the 1st go. To mint. W. Ow many polish muslims are certain alamo right now Climate Change the 1st half of the story. Faces life less than when photos one we. Come much closer into. We still have time to ask. Such says. It subscribes like this. If it is for me it. Is for. Beethoven is for. Beethoven it is for. Beethoven is for everyone. Beethoven 2020. 50th anniversary here on d w no. Such. Claim. From berlin battling the 2nd wave governments across europe trying to turn back the tide of the coronavirus of the continent records the highest number of new infections since the start of the pandemic. Also coming up armenian and Azerbaijani Forces engage in fresh fighting. Despite calls for the 2 countries to almost cease fire terry groups are warning of a massive crisis if the situation deteriorates. And isnt settled just a