It reserves the right to take taiwan by force under president Xi Jinping China has become more open than ever about that threat i guess well see its far from certain but taiwan would get any help if china. Even 5 years ago. The United States to come to taiwans defense was greater than it is today so what my china actually do lets turn now to 2 or 3 scenarios each one more dangerous than the last were going to start by projecting whats happening right now into the future with china trying to chip away at taiwans defenses and were going to ask how far could it go. If every 2020 taiwans air force releases this image to the media it shows the taiwanese jets. Intercepting the chinese boma flying near its a space rankling its just a dangerous tension in the sky the photograph might be read but what it shows happens a lot especially this year taiwanese military expert johnny chung explains a common flight path that chinese planes follow made and and so common brian out. Because they go to the east side of taiwan and down bed return back to china taking the route of boston can say we will need to reach by then the aircraft fly to the whole of the ethics. Bottlenecks or so we have been doing our skies right defending our waters and every mormon in the last few decades is constant pressuring from the chinese side is like a stress test on multiple levels if you possibly aimed it demoralizing the taiwanese public but its also simply wearing down time once claims. I want has to scramble fighter jets that not only. Get the airframe because every fighter jet. Made a has a limited number of hours a can fly. And so by having them constantly on strip alert. With their wings fully loaded with munitions and with external fuel tanks that weakens the wings well. And then also takes the pilots away from other activities that wouldnt prove theyre ready but. And perhaps most importantly all of this probing generates hugely valuable insights for the Chinese Military james final who led u. S. Naval intelligence in the pacific explains you have to know your adversaries to. Structure and its network its air defense radar system where the weaknesses were the strengths how long does it take a fighter 16 fighter i want to get off the ground there was 12 or 37 coming from this air base to the jail level coming from that base or. The cage a 5000 or 2000 coming from this base of the Early Warning aircraft so theyre testing all of you once things that we cant see we dont know about were not getting the raw intelligence but i guarantee you china is looking at every facet to minute detail of minutes seconds how long things take to respond who doesnt respond which base comes 1st telephone calls Text Messages between different government leaders and defense officials there mapping all of that in the cyber realm to china continues to present think chip away. Chunks explain just what i read that in the high one had. That the Government Agency had been hacked by the chinese hackers that. Happened very frequently in taiwan unassuming building in shanghai reportedly houses the military hacking unit 61398 the time one suspects of launching many attacks all this belongs to whats called the gray zone. Activities that stop short of outright military action and theyre constantly getting taiwan with Cyber Attacks with disapprobation misinformation. And of course espionage if theyre constantly working. Through propaganda channels and other channels to weaken to demoralize the taiwanese military and isolate. These government. And with its open Society Taiwan is highly vulnerable to disinform ation campaigns so says expert channeling sue these efforts i think they are more and more sophisticated at the enemy to interfere with taiwans internal social and political or lives as in the ultimate purpose most of the time is to create confusion in a society to create distrust in the government to create division among peoples and when there is confusion when there is distrust in democracy then there is an opportunity for the idea of a solitary unism being a step dad and i think thats the purpose of this information it adds up to a multifaceted information war and china has long pursued a united front policy and tactics against taiwan and so try to build support with in taiwan for unification and that includes buying media in taiwan and buying off some people in taiwan or maybe even trying to buy votes and inserting people in taiwan and trying to shape the narrative so could this scenario of chipping away its happening right now eventually succeed. Will eventually just crumble but the society can crumble and that ultimately over the next 5 to 10 years we can subvert ones government to. Crumble democracy from within. But if taiwan doesnt from it could push back becoming more determined to stand alone and that could ultimately trigger a crisis perhaps one like our next an aria. Caused your mind back to early 2014 you might remember scenes like this. Seemingly out of nowhere heavily armed troops began showing up at key installations in the ukrainian peninsula of crimea. Adding to the sense of confusion the troops bore no insignia they wouldnt say who they were or who had sent them people started calling them little green men but it soon became clear what was going on the little green men belong to russia and their mission was. Nothing less than crimea in hindsight russias motivations for taking control of the Crimean Peninsula seem quite obvious it housed a strategically important Russian Naval base which moscow leased from ukraine. After weeks of unrest in the capital kiev that culminated in the fall of the central Ukrainian Government russia made its move leaders here in the west were a gas that what putin had done but they were helpless they imposed sanctions but 6 years later nothing has changed so could this is a blueprint for a similar chinese move against part of taiwan lets take a look at the map and taiwan has a large number of outlying islands that could be vulnerable to being plucked away like crimea from the tiny reefs of u 2 album process down in the South China Sea through the pingu islands just off the taiwanese coast right up to matt suit well to the north. But were going to focus in here on the gin man islands theyre just 2 kilometers from the chinese mainland port of shopmen you could swim. These islands have history back in the 1950 s. They were the focus of 2 major police will crises between taiwan and china neither side has forgotten but despite that History Today jim arm has close ties to chalmette just across the harbor but now pipes in much of its Drinking Water from the mainland and beyond that it has important intelligence and Strategic Value according to experts in eastern human control. The largest port facility by far. In southeastern. Fortress it is honey. There are tanks there. Are heavy artillery mortar systems and of course a major. Focal point for intelligence collection so how might it crimea style scenario play out. Well a possible trigger it could be political a time when the statement for example china might interpret as breaking its and he secession in eastern explains how things might begin well the most likely course of action i think for the would be could to conduct a massive sabotage operation against him and so everything from cyberattacks to electronic jamming to having the commandos and intelligence agents and assets on the ground and start potentially assassinating military commanders blowing things up knocking the power of chinas Maritime Militia could be brought into play here if you could compare them to russias little green men to be involved in International Confrontations of the fishing rights in the South China Sea something that taiwan has been watching closely russian use little green men and then people calling the blue man. Because they. Very likely that china mobilized those mari. To iraq. They should go. Around the country and certainly youre going to see jim and that surrounded by and flooded with Maritime Militia so these are sensibly members of the p l a but they look like civilian fisherman oftentimes and so it creates a very serious dilemma. For the marines and the army troops that are on cimon but the garrison there do they shoot or not and when do they shoot and at what point are they safe for today is it when theyre closing in when theyve already landed and now theyre swarming the island and taking over facilities and of course they would be mixed in with Undercover Special forces. From the p. L. O. As well the aim would likely be to move to establish facts on the ground quickly like routine did in crimea and it would pose a huge dilemma for the Government Back in taipei taipei is not necessarily going to know how to react and theres not necessarily going to be a consensus in taipei on the value of g. M. And the value of escalating to a potentially an all out war with the p. R. C. Over gene there are going to be some in taiwan that would say well gee been historically was part of fujian province. Its not actually part of a high wall and its not worth. Over in washington it would also present a tie lemma but it seems likely there would be Little American appetite to intervene militarily its very difficult to judge how the United States would react to a limited use of force against taiwan it would likely come with very little warning and it might be over very quickly and there might be an effort to put sanctions on china but i doubt that there would be a use of force by the United States to punish china for one it has done so could this be a relatively painless scenario for china one with diplomatic costs that it could accept likely near putins experience with crimea well its not necessarily cyclic cut. It would most likely trigger anti china protests in taiwan much more intense than some Flower Movement that we heard about earlier rallying Public Opinion against closer ties with china. And even if the u. S. Decided not to intervene in the takeover could prompt washington to increase its commitment to defending taiwan. For china even this relatively limited pushback might not be worth it but i think its the risk there is that upsets the overall strategic. You know the great rejuvenation the great restoration my opinion as once china pulls the when youre going says were going to war theyre going to go after taiwan if theyre going to go with the military theyre going to go all the way theyre not going to go half way so now lets turn to our final and most dangerous scenario china going all the way and invading taiwan. For. Its a decade or so in the future but beneath the surface in the Chinese Communist party there are growing signs of dissent. Chinas economy has been underperforming for years held back by a shop selling global trade that lingered after the coronavirus prime to make. Tensions with the u. S. Have turned into a chronic cold war. Beijing has kept pouring money into its military debt is soaring and chinas population is beginning to shrink. The Party Chairman is under growing pressure to break out of this sense of national decline or face being forced out of office by party rivals. This makes taiwan look like an increasingly tempting target its economy is strong but its military disadvantage is deeper than ever and its people are appalled by what happened to hong kong because even less likely to join china voluntarily. Meanwhile in the United States who breakouts around to wait in key swing states after a bitter election ended with razor tight results both sides are claiming a victory and accusing the other of having help from the foreign powers who. Has the legal challenges fly back and forth the u. S. Faces months of political uncertainty. So a power vacuum in the United States a push for National Pride in a stagnating china and taiwan as exposed as its ever been these are the sorts of circumstances that could encourage china to make a move so if it came to that how might an invasion play out. First initially a joint strike. Would want missiles it would just be one missile or one installation in taiwan they would use or. Want to make sure that every defensive position. Taiwan has been attacked every airfield with bin crater every naval port stable and then they would then come in and help put their air force over the top of the established air superiority so that any time war an aircraft tried to get off the ground it would be decimated in a wall thats going on inside of the payments the the previous forces would be coming across and those heroes would come off 1st and launch and land forces is a key toys that they wanted to clear through the a splendid and then you come in with a much larger craft that would bring you there within their civilian fleet that would have literally scores and scores 1000 thousands that we always shoulders and guard that could just walk right off the pier and of course taiwan would be trying to defend itself you andy chang explains how it would have to be smart in how it uses its much smaller military. All of this at least routine the land forces the pegs the ships the boat the sub over the aircraft has to be used but effectively that could be divided into the means basically the 1st spacing is to be used to the protests the force itself you can use all the steps you havent brought. Building those kind of a tactical match it will need to be on top if you felt that we will happen we will still keep our capability. To respond then the 2nd place and seeing the fire away from the coast of taiwan so that that means the height of the country and the people will be away. Or the cash or the heavies minimum then the 3rd base and to. Annihilate or destroy a lot of the forces at the peak that mean to attack helicopters. And they. May dial. A Chinese Navy Ship but ultimately the best the time one could do is buy time hoping that the United States would intervene james final talks about the assets that the americans could mobilize in the pacific the u. S. Navy in the u. S. 7th fleet has resources that could disrupt the invasion and so. Our submarine forces. They would be used to try to disrupt the chinese invasion ships that would come across that naval and the u. S. Air forces that are operating these bases and are aircraft carriers toward the region would be. Destroyed or in beijing so the u. S. Would have options but intervention would still be a mental decision. American forces would immediately become chinese targets with its pacific bases like a canal in japan and the tiny island of guam open to attack and so even if the United States managed to defend taiwan its intervention could set off a terrifying chain of escalation between the 2 superpowers let me just be the 1st battle in what becomes the series of battles that. Go on over a number of years in a protracted great power war. And of course all of that is that nucular determined hold that neither the government either washington or miscalculate and panicked nor does anything with Nuclear Weapons if they do then were talking about a potential nuclear war. And that would be truly horrific and so theres also you know everything that happened in this in already happened under the shadow. Of a potential nuclear war because thats what this could do to remain dangerous and extremely serious and weve been talking about all this happening perhaps a decade in the future but some of the circumstances that could trigger this scenario could emerge much sooner than that and if you look at the internal situations in china at this moment their economy says being affected by kofi annan go under this kind of so going to the chinese leaders the authoritarian leaders may find taiwan us a company of scapegoat and therefore taiwan needs to be concerned about the chinese possible use of force against us so the world might not have 10 years to think about these risks so what can it do to minimize them. As weve just seen a conflict over taiwan has the potential to spark a war between superpowers even the most benign scenario weve just examined is fraught with risk so what should the world be doing about this well lets start with the United States some of the experts that weve been hearing from in the us say washington has to make a much clearer commitment to taiwans defense our policy towards taiwan. Doesnt make a lot of. That we dont theres so much. If youre right for miscalculation by providing credible guarantee news. To taiwan security and messaging to beijing. That the United States is serious about i want security. That there increases risk we would never do this with south korea with japan u. G. G. Cant be doesnt work we know is destabilizing. And yet. Were doing that with our want. A new bill in congress aims to make big changes committing future president s to defending taiwan in the event of an attack its also congressman ted yoho republican on the House Foreign Affairs committee explained the overtime want to engage in prevention act there are several things one it delineates if there were an attack on taiwan by china that it would authorize an a u m l the United States congress to allow the president to go in and defend taiwan militarily and a u. M. S. Thats an authorization for use of military force and i think the biggest thing it does is it gets rid of the strategic or political or diplomatic ambiguity thats lasted since the seventys its been a just. A lot of ambiguity or taiwan stance but critics say this could backfire either by provoking china or by encouraging risky behavior by taiwans leaders so if the United States has a physician that says it will come to taiwans defense if attacked are trying under all circumstances then that could the argument goes into a blank check to a. Taiwan president to engage in a more dangerous in the stabilizing behaviors so u. S. Policy currently is to oppose any changes in the status quo in the Taiwan Strait made by either side that our american experts do agree on one think the u. S. Needs at least to be able to defend taiwan and right now that is not certain but i think the United States has been very complacent in recent years and my hope is that the u. S. Will hold a follow through. Wants some of the plans that it currently has to modernize and update us forces with an eye to being able to intervene on taiwans behalf chinas message to the us is Pretty Simple though back off i think you have. A country. They dont know. Chinas affairs probably should maybe you know people. In china saw the problem itself so what about attitudes here in europe. As the Czech Republic has found out by europeans express solidarity with taiwan china responds with threats but that may make europeans more determined to take a stand at least that was hinted at by germanys foreign minister at a meeting with his chinese counterpart. Theyre also friends. Were you one i. Swear allegiance wish to. All the girls with all this narrative. But experts say europe still hasnt figured out how to back up that commitment. What we lack is a european conversation about what kind of player europe in the future would like to be in these kinds of scenarios and whether we would like to stay at the sidelines of or whether the Mission Important for europe to not only defend economic interests but also the Interest Income safeguarding vital democracies in a region that is of crucial importance for the future of our Economic Prosperity and finally lets turn to taiwan itself from minister joseph says theres one thing hed like democracies to do now to support taiwan back its beat to become more integrated in the International Community the taiwanese people should not be scored it from the International Organizations its not fair to that one its people and its also stopping taiwan from making contributions to the International Community so i would ask the International Community i would ask the members of the International Organizations to look at taiwans role as a positive 1. 00 and 2. 00 in cool taiwan even that would provoke a furious pushback from beijing and democracies no its the joseph who insists that the whole world has a stake in taiwans future if you look at china us expansionism in the last several years. I think its not only about chinas expansion they are trying to export the authoritarian International Order while the democracies stop following the rule based International Order and if china succeeded in taking taiwan over i think the rest of the walt especially for democracies is going to feel the heat china is expanding award taiwan happens to be on the front line. For those of us watching from the outside we owe it to the people of the region to sit up and pay attention. To a flashpoint that could blow up into a devastating conference. The last time finally the communist east germany was played into 1919. He knew. It was a great opportunity to get clues to shoot. In soon to be determined. To. Board. This is news coming to you. On the campaign trail u. S. President. State of florida. Testing. Democratic challenger. The state with just 3 weeks to go