Has good reason to worry facing its giant neighbor across a Narrow Strait of water. This year chinese warplanes are flying the close to taiwan over and over again probing the product until time when hes trying to intercept. And out at sea chinese warships to the sense of constant threat. Because i one has lived with that threat for more than 70 years but now its rising to a new level and the world needs to pay attention. Under president Xi Jinping China has been flexing its muscles more and more openly not just on occasions like it 70th Anniversary Parade this year in one of the most remote places in the world chinas mountainous border zone with india out of the blue a sudden escalation in tensions between chinese and indian troops left dozens of people dead chinas Defense Ministry published videos of its forces training in tibet the message seeming to be were ready for anything. Relations with the United States have soured to the brink of imbue cold war with donald trump and she jim pain at loggerheads over a huge range of issues within its own borders to the northwest china has ignored International Condemnation of reeducation camps part of a sweeping crackdown on its weaker minority. And in hong kong since a wave of protests began last year china moved more and more aggressively to assert direct control of this former british colony. And this is some of your breasts and communication critics began after a new National Security or stripped away many of hong kongs freedom. Of the people. Of this crackdown in hong kong is whats most chilling of all for taiwan china. Sees the selfgoverning democratic island off its southeastern coast as a province of its own a place that must be brought under its control and heres the thing china says that it reserves the right to take taiwan by force in a speech just last year president xi jinping framed the threat like this woman portrayed more function. Barlows how it should be your choice of the shoe shop. No wonder people in taiwan are increasingly worried i think china is in the moment of expansion are trying to expand outworked the threat is very real and built for our taiwans perpetration its also very serious what is unfolding tongue on right now i think gave us a hard lesson that we really need to do better to safeguard our democracy 20202030 is the most dangerous time in my opinion for a conflict china over these disputed territory and as well see its far from certain that taiwan would get any help if china did mountain attack so in this video were going to ask what could actually happen were going to examine 3 possible scenarios guided by experts whove been studying the risks 3 years ranging from china chipping away at taiwans defenses to a marquee annexation of an outlying island crimea style and in the final and most dangerous scenario and will have to invasion something that could not only be a disaster for taiwan would bring china and the us to the brink of a war that would change the world everything that happens in medicine already happened under the shadow of a potential nuclear war because thats what this could be some of what were going to see in here. Is genuinely frightening but if this year has taught us anything its that nightmare scenarios can happen and its better to be prepared and european think of planning. And think through what their actions could look like before we get into those scenarios were going to deal with 2 important questions why does china want to take over taiwan and 1st of all what is taiwan it sounds like a really basic question but this is no ordinary place theres nowhere like it anywhere in the world. This story takes us back to 949 when the island was known as for most or not out of the china sea years barbosa ones all mob asiatic pirates and had a lot of it is a hard man to mostly shoot by learning about the size of massachusetts and connecticut combine it was the aftermath of the 2nd world war and mao zedongs communists have won victory in chinas civil war a conflict that had dragged on for more than 2 decades the defeated nationalists led by Chiang Kai Shek found refuge on taiwan where they planned to regroup and now to fight back from charm option to launch the attack that will drive out the garbage chiang side was supported by the United States but that dream of conquering china turned out to be a fantasy in stage with the cold war came a kind of stalemate. All along both chiang and power insisted that there was only one china and that they were the rightful ruler of that. Chang was a fervent anti communist but he was no democrat he will taiwan as a military dictatorship right up until his death in 1985. It was only under this man return play for taiwan began. Moving towards democracy. Riding convoy is being described by the International Community and also view a lot here in taiwan as the father of taiwans modern day democracy and why is that he is the key person who really cared a step by step democratize the nation from the early ninetys up until the night in 96 when he held the 1st democratic president ial election in taiwan history and of course he won that election by a very comfortable margin and he just went on to further consolidate all the Democratic Institutions here in taiwan lease reforms were a historic turning point for taiwan. Ever since taiwan has made huge economic strides and flourished into an open raucous Democratic Society of almost 24000000 people. And how to deal with china has been one of the major battlegrounds of taiwanese Democratic Politics from 2008 to 2016 former president pursued a policy of trying to improve relations with china. Economic ties grew stronger. But eventually there was a back. Student protest called the Sunflower Movement sprang up in 2014 accusing maher of going too far with a Major Chinese trade agreement. People feared it would make taiwan too dependent on nature. And do the election 2 years later signing when the opposition d. P. P. Party swept to office she became taiwans 1st female leader on a platform that was far more critical of china and confidently asserting taiwans distinct identity oh well so you dont want to go that was. So that was. So. Joseph says foreign minister consignments government he spoke to g. W. In taipei you understand that i want to run by china we elect our own government our president s democratic democratically elected our parliament is also democratically elected we have ministry of Foreign Affairs that engages with the International Community so taiwan is not run by china taiwan is not part of the p. R. C. And that is the fact that doesnt go down at all well in beijing we spoke to expert wang. Who runs the think tank is close to the government they are really thinking more. Separation from china you know theres a lot of. Things that the Current Situation is doing that really not good for the cause trade relations. But Public Opinion in taiwan seems to be moving in size to rection. People are identifying not according to chinese roots but is taiwanese in may 2020 at the Pew Research Center did a survey amount how many people and the number and the percentage of people identifying themselves as taiwanese just again growth to be here 3 high while the number of people identifying themselves as chinese continue to. Decline and i think that account just reflects the growing generational difference between the Younger Generation which considers the importance of maintaining identity birth as the ordinary from which still feels like a part of their life has a very deep connection to china meanwhile taiwans successes have continued to add up just one example its high tech economy is home to t. S. M. See the worlds most advanced silicon chip maker driving a huge proportion of the worlds smartphones in the coronavirus pandemic taiwans affective response has become the envy of the world. And his society has opened up in striking ways even becoming the 1st place in asia to legalize same sex marriage and 29. You would think that for other liberal democracies like here in the west taiwan would be a natural friend and ally well think again only 15 countries in the world recognise taiwan as a sovereign state most of them are tiny but the rest long ago switch recognition to china. Even in europe home of proud democracies britain switch recognition to china way back in 1950 france did the same in 1964 and germany followed suit in 1972. In fact the only country in europe that has full diplomatic relations with taiwan. The vatican population 820. 00 finds this we think about taiwan as a place and what kind of place it is then it is a vibrant democracy it is a tax superpower. Junko close to china expert in the e. C. F. Phone think tank the lim it is a country that is just playing a role in the global system or could play a role in the global system that would be quite substantial and very close to where europe asked in a lot of the conversations and so it is quite surprising in a way that our relations are not as close as they could be. Which any attempt by European Countries to strengthen ties with taipei to meet with powerful pushback from china. During a recent visit to taiwan by a group of lawmakers from the Czech Republic chinas foreign minister threatened that the delegations leader would pay a heavy price. For. The truth. Likewise chinas influence means taiwan is frozen out of Key International bodies including the United Nations the same goes for the World Health Organization which has been especially frustrating for taiwan during the coronavirus pandemic the Chinese Government was able to bungle lies. In the International Organization to block that was participation no matter how many like my countrys there are in helping taiwan we think that the. Caught or the school of people from participating in this International Waters ations its not fair to that i want to speak taiwans diplomatic isolation deepen profoundly in 1979 u. S. President jimmy carter welcomed dunk sharping to the white house and switched diplomatic recognition from taipei to beijing. The u. S. Didnt abandon taiwan completely it softened the blow some reassurances on defense but crucially those reassurances are far from watertight one is that the United States would provide defensive weapons and services to taiwan as necessary and did not define what defense is now and 20 glazer is an expert on taiwan and china at the c s i s think tank in washington. And then the 2nd obligation is to maintain the United States at south are and their military capability in the west pacific. To prevent intimidation and coercion against taiwan now notably that is not a commitment to come to taiwans defense in the event that it is attacked it means that the United States is a sort of hard life for taiwan. It sold large amounts of weapons to taipei over the decades something that stepped up a gear under the trumpet ministration we see is. More serious then ever in their commitment to peace in this region the United States speaking regular writes is arm still to taiwan whenever we have. To request the United States to make. Their review it right away. Make it available to taiwan after that review period so its being a quite regular. That very much. But in the meantime china has become dramatically more powerful as proudly displayed on the streets of beijing making it pose a far greater threat to taiwan the taiwanese military is completely too often comparison and adding to the challenge it doesnt even have enough for. The armed forces have been producing videos like days to try to drum up infusion among potential young soldiers but theyve been struggling to make up for a shortfall left by phasing out of conscription. So thats where taiwan stands right now in 2020 a striking Success Story in many ways and yet incredibly vulnerable to china. So now to our next question why does china want to take over taiwan. Its 2015 and blurry footage from chinas state media starts to circulate around the world. It shows a military exercise at a remote desert base but theres one thing that seizes attention from that building in the background various shots looked very familiar to people in taiwan. Is appear to be modeled on the president ial office in taipei. A symbol of taiwan selfgovernment. Satellite imagery later seem to confirm the similarity. One made official protest but trying to brush them off saying the trial was just a routine exercise and yet theres nothing hidden or new about chinas desire to take control of time. This goes back all the way to the Unfinished Business of the chinese civil war. As we saw earlier both mao and Chiang Kai Shek said there was only one china and they were the rightful leader of it and even today one China Remains as sacrosanct principle for beijing is to be reassured the same language sure the same culture background and theres nobody to be even a system as seen from beijing with hong kong having returned to china in 1997 taiwan would be the last piece in the puzzle for chinas restoration as a unified great nation overcoming a legacy of historical scots i want trial actually in the past. 10200 years john and supper foreign powers. Are humiliated by many western powers. So also i think that its important that china maintain. A unified country and the particularly when china now is already become. A more prosperous more economically developed and so that you know people can really enjoying the. Benefits of becoming a greater china. You know if i was. Made. But theres more to this than nationalism and identity taiwans position in the socalled 1st i didnt change scutching china southeast makes it highly important from a Strategic Point of view. Controlling it could fatally undermine that americas Current Power in the region and of taiwan paul. If taiwan were to be occupied by the Chinese Military analyst in eastern wrote a book the chinese invasion threat working through 3 strategic questions and it becomes almost impossible to defend our entire network up through the invasion but how do we japan blockade at that point or how do we the south korea how do we define the pull of gravity because that any time they could be invaded from taiwan if they tried it there and conversely controlling taiwan would be crucial for china assuring up its own position of trying it would be quite fearful if another country had forces on taiwan because then it would have i in a sense a base place where. Force quit being projected against china and that is the biggest fear that china has. Now if the chinese were able to occupy taiwan in that way aid them in projecting force and preventing interference by Foreign Forces and particularly the United States in 2005 china made this and matter of national noor the National Peoples congress for great on an anti secession is all the declared re unifying the motherland as the sacred duty of Chinese People taiwanese compactly its included. It was passed by 2896 votes to 0 john is going to pass a law to take this risk seriously and theres a strong we were 1. 31. 4000000000 people. Behind this the National Peoples congress or that. You know you know they were not tolerate any session the law held out the prospect of a Hong Kong Style approach of one country 2 systems china you know one cons why country 2 system john i would lead. Taiwan to do whatever its economic side and and also Free Enterprise is capitalist whatever that matter would not be really impressed by china so as long as the sovereignty is within one china policy this system taiwan can keep its existing system without changing the recent experience with one country 2 systems has left the concept in serious doubt and under xi jinping the threat of resorting to force against taiwan is quite open as we saw earlier. Function. All those fights egypt be all sorts of the shooting. And the latest National Peoples congress only added to fears that the threat was becoming more explicit so i think you know that which i think send a signal that of course china wants to have a peaceful but. You know were not this ambiguity and chinas messaging and in the anti secession lloyd self leaves a lot open to interpretation so its not completely clear what chinas red lines are but the most important. Are the circumstances i believe is the one that is completely open ended and that is in the antithesis sessional are basically says over time taiwan does not agree to unify peace. Then force can be used to achieve that goal and that is really the one that is quite worrisome and with every passing year chinas military has been getting stronger with massive investments in exactly the sorts of weapons that it would need to invade taiwan and crucially to deter a repel any american attempt to stop it james finale was chief of intelligence for the u. S. Pacific fleet until 2015 he recalls how he watched the chinese navy grow since the beginning of his career and the chinese maybe at that time had a few ships from the north sea fleet but really nothing else that concerned us now 30 years later the chinese navy is larger than u. S. Navy in terms of total number of ships. And they certainly are outpacing the maybe the u. S. Navy in the western the 7th fleet where im sure and for the last 5 years plus theyve been producing literally 5 times as many ships per year as the u. S. Navy reduces. Those ships include 2 aircraft carriers and many of these amphibious warfare ships the sort of vessel that could bring the marines to time lots. And china has the aging crucial missiles to the sails designed to destroy precisely the kinds of ships that the u. S. Might use to defend taiwan they invested a lot of time and energy to become the worlds leading leaders Cruise Missile technology they have these and they ship Cruise Missiles like the white tree which has a 300 kilometer a mile range with longer than anything that United States. Right now and its also supersonic and it has these hiking. Capabilities that can defeat the bones of systems close in Weapons Systems and theyve built them you know by the truckload its essentially so take all this together and chinas dramatic military build up hasnt just totally outgunned taiwan its even made it a serious rival to the United States in the pacific even 5 years ago the ability of the United States to come to taiwans defense was greater than it is today. And with the balance of power shifts chinas favor the prospect looms larger that it will decide to act james final says theres even a kind of historical deadline on the horizon the 100th anniversary of communist china in 2049 i believe that whoever is the leader of the peoples republic of china on 1 october 20. Second of stand up and turn of the propensity to give a speech to the people who are trying a 1000000000 plus people and that person is going to have to say we have achieved a great rejuvenation of china and we are now greatly restored in all the races the shame of the century of humiliation for belloc used in any invasion would have to take place within the next decade for the dust to settle in time for that never meant state my theory is if you could take 20 years as the time that the world war forget anything then you back that up from 2049 youre basically a 2030 and so ive characterized what were in right now its just begun its the decade of concern 20202030 is the most dangerous time and there are my opinion for a conflict with china over these disputed territory chinas leadership has the motivation and increasingly has the meat to make a military move against taiwan so what might china actually do. Coming up in part 2 weeks i mean 3 scenarios 1st chipping away for taiwans result by military and hybrid means. Theyre constantly going in taiwan with. This information misinformation. And of course. The hope i think in beijing. I want to. Adventure just. In a scenario to russias crimea playbook inspires a shadowy takeover of outlying island. While rushing to green then people go in. And so it creates a very serious dilemma for the marine army troops. That they care isnt there do they shoot or not and when do they shoot and at what point did they start shooting. And finally in scenario 3 a full scale invasion. So youd have 1st initially a joint our Strike Campaign which would want you know all these missiles it would just be one missile or one installation in taiwan they would use 45. 00 maybe 10 to want to make sure that every defensive position in taiwan had been attacked every airfield been cratered every neighbor or stable and we hear warnings that dangers could come much sooner than we might think. And if you look at the internal situation in china at this moment the economy says being affected by. The chinese leaders the authoritarian leaders may find taiwan us accompanying a scapegoat and therefore taiwanese to be. About the chinese possible use of force against us part 2 of taiwan china its next target. 3 more. Shontelle is defeated again thanks to their shockingly poor performance like see enters the International Break at the top of the table. 30 minutes on t w. This is the the view news live from berlin donald trump back in the white house with a message for the American People dont let it dominate you dont be afraid of it youre going to beat it but the president is still infected with covert 19 as are some of his top aides will get the latest from washington also on the show paris orders of bars and cafes close this europe confronts an increasing number of new in front and factions the french capital on macs