Be told it is for. The. Beethoven is for. Beethoven is for every man. Might open 2020 to the 50th anniversary on through. Russia calls it relief for the world the shipments contain the back sing candidate sputnik. 2000 venezuelans will try it out including a member of the president ial family. In it or france or queen equally poor in this Clinical Trial phase my son nicholas an estimate duro guerra told me of his decision to be vaccinated with the russian vaccine to join the trial i think its very good by the sea movie him. By the roots was the 1st foreign country to receive batches of the back scene last week india is also interested in testing it. For russia it could be a spark nick moment like the one in 157 when the communists launched the 1st satellite. In august russia declared itself the 1st country to approve a Coronavirus Vaccine high risk groups have been receiving sputnik 5 Health Workers journalists teachers china russia is being deployed in the shots before full efficacy trials are complete the results are promising the vaccine has been met with some skepticism washing his hands multiple times a day just one of a series of hygiene measures gulper in undertakes the doctor doesnt want to take any chances with coronavirus but he knows of vaccine would offer the best protection against covered 19 thats why his volunteer to take part in testing a new russian one. Someone has to do it without Clinical Trials they are no medicines and the effectiveness of a vaccine can only be evaluated in the 3rd phase of Clinical Trials. Is to treat your 4. Stage 3 of the. Files began a month ago but the vaccine which has been names footnote 5 was licensed already in august before they began mass inoculation in russia is planned for later this year something numerous experts have sharply criticized the russian government rejects the criticism it says the vaccine has been developed from already known substances and doesnt pose any health risks was russia urgently needs an effective vaccine the country currently has the 4th highest number of corona virus cases worldwide and the numbers continue to rise with around 6000. 00 new infections each day. Galperin and other doctors working say they are not worried about the vaccine safety. Off the roll the vaccine has already been tested on several well known Public People and theyre doing quite well because these public figures include Russian Defense minister sergei surely google moscow mayor say gay so beyond in and one of president Vladimir Putins daughters ports and p. R. Material. Since part of russias Strategic Interests to always want to be 1st irrespective of whether its a revolution or the 1st flight into space now its about saying that were the 1st to develop a vaccine internally were showing that the situation is under control x. Turn away its a signal that russia is still mastering its role as the savior of the world. And. Some young galperin isnt thinking about his countrys p. R. Plans just now the doctor is here because his hoping to help win the fight against the corona virus pandemic. We are tired they wanted to be over the new vaccine would help calm people and offer a way out of the situation. It will most likely be at least several months until the results of the face 3 trials known only then can the actual effectiveness and safety of russians put nick 5 vaccine be assessed. Know about safe works at the International VaccineAccess Center of the Johns HopkinsBloomberg School of Public Health so will the russians be the 1st. And look there are lots more lots of people to achieve a vexing its not about whos going to be 1st its event as many people as can cross the finish line really to have a safe and effective vaccines we want multiple winners here and there are vexing is certainly you know doing moving to phase large scale phase 3 is as are many others and we want lawson shit to occur after the completion of those things 3 is when we have good safety data and good if you can see that or that the vaccines actually work and lots of people we want to succeed here not just on one group or another on the point of safety have the russians been fudging the numbers of some of accused and skipping parts of the trials. Theres no good solid evidence that theres been any concern about the numbers the detail that was given in the russian papers and it was excellent you know the quality of the evidence was as solid as any of the other published papers the there have been some lay reports on blogs and so on those really dont hold water when examined fairly and statistically so no i dont have any more concerns about this group than any other group of tickling. The modified common cold viruses behind such vaccines have been studied for decades but still not widely used why why is that. There are number of other vaccine platforms that have we have a lot more experience with the advantage of adding of our very good vaccines ease that they are potentially capable of privilege bring almost a antigen to the immune system and so there and they vector itself is designed to be known up look at ing sort of card causing friction the capacity to do that to get that city to develop these vaccines has been in development for quite a long time but i recently has a really rich lawson shot under the pressure really you know developing a vaccine against of all of ours and thats been a success so thats good and we would like to see more of these vaccines Going Forward claiming a lot more experience with them particularly around safety and around if you can see but theres no reason to suspect that theyll be problematic vaccines in fact theyre likely to be very good vaccines where we have a range of potential at and of ours vectors some more frequently encountered by human populations than others then that differences of detention that could arise among the different products and that some of the detail thats coming out from some of the scientific literature but as a platform had you know its a really exciting platform and we hope that theyll be lots of opportunities to develop this platform that respects analogy beyond this pandemic into the future also whats the certainty you know the vaccines that pass phase 3 will be successful for the wider population. Theres never a certainty you know hes built on uncertainty and falsifiability so its really a golden and methods as rigorous as they can be and its important that we continue to evaluate the vaccine even after that its rolled out and even after it she was last ensuring phase 3 things 3 trials of the trials that demonstrate large scale you know in terms of tens of thousands and collectively close to hundreds of thousands of People Safety even disappearance and important efficacy against disease so it actually protects human beings against disease thats the time that we require philosophia. For a vaccine is very rarely hopeful because as you know a series sound very rarely their society has the right have the pros and cons as we go back since they were potentially harmful but very rarely so but they are very very beneficial and frequently so so its always a question of balancing the risks and benefits and that correct balance requires good science groups or violence and good evidence Going Forward beyond phase 3 and beyond licensure wellington any use of hopefully in future use youve said its problematic if a vaccine is designed to target the disease and not the infection why. Well its not exactly right about your clothes i mean or vaccines or you have designed to target disease but if i see a complex situation Current Record of ours because we have widespread infection and transmission occurring globally i think my public expectational is that once a vaccine is available we go back to the way things work and we stop mosques and we stop social distancing and thats just judgment of whatever that saying at least in the initial phase can do the end of the vaccine is to reduce disease and to use it in volatile groups at least initially in the 1st round of vaccination if a vaccine is given to those at high risk and not toward the body clearly transmission will continue to it could you know if you didnt receive the vaccine but a year from now or year and a half from now or 2 years from now when the vaccine is more widely available it will be critical to demonstrate that it actually reduces transmission and not just reduces disease because if it doesnt do that then the other ways to reduce transmission to continue with face masks and so on. One could imagine a paradox whereby if the vaccine continues to allow transmission and works less well to protect against disease in the elderly that you know paradoxically. Address that comes could get worse not better so we need to be very careful about how we deploy vaccines on the basis of the best available science and evidence around what they do what their efficacy hes against you know about say thank you very much for joining us thank you for having. And its that part of the show when we look at your questions on the growth of virus is the w. Science correspondent there are. There any countries Testing School aged kids on a wide scale to if so what are the results. Because covert 19 in general at least doesnt affect children as severely as older people kids in general have not been tested as much throughout the pandemic its simply been a question of resource allocation but the lack of really solid data has also led to a lot of speculation that kids might not be much of a factor in spreading the disease throughout Wider Society which has in some countries influenced things like decisions to reopen schools but now a big study from india could cause authorities to rethink that idea it focused among other things on Contact Tracing data from 85000 confirmed cases in 2 states there in total it looked at test results from over 500000 contacts that occurred between people who were infected and the people they gave it to or didnt get and one of the most interesting takeaways was that it showed kids actually do pass the disease on to other kids especially those in their age group which would include for example kids in the same class at school what the study wasnt able to clarify was was how often those kids subsequently might have passed the virus along to adults but but even so the evidence now looks pretty compelling it indicates that the idea that kids dont really spread covert 19 doesnt really hold water which a lot of researchers have said shouldnt actually come as a surprise. Saburo long for another covert special season. After a. Confrontation between china and taiwan the superpower is threatening to invade its neighbor. How serious is it how is china justifying its claims. The ws Richard Walker analyzes the causes and dangers of the conflict in taiwan chinas next target close up. Next on d w. O india. Its a payment undone by. The dog whisperer if indeed it was the problem of exploitation indigo has since become a symbol of sustainability and success thanks to a project at the edge of the himalayas. In 60 minutes on t. W. Every 2 seconds a person is forced to flee their home. The consequences and to say asterisk in our documentary series displaced depicts dramatic humanitarian crises from around the world. Fuck it then we dont have time to think i didnt go to university to kill people and i think the fact that. People feel for their lives and their future so they seek refuge abroad but what will become of those who stay behind. Displaced starts october 16th on g. W. Preparing for war in taiwan. The taiwanese military forces craning for a scenario they hope will never happen a chinese invasion from across the sea. Taiwans president herself a time when it comes to rally the troops. Taiwan has good reason to worry facing its giant neighbor across a narrow street of water. This year chinese warplanes have flown close to taiwan over and over again probing the product until taiwanese find its intercept. And out it seems chinese warships back to the sense of constant threat. Because i one has lived with that threat for more than 70 years but now its rising to a new level and the world needs to pay attention. Under president Xi Jinping China has been flexing its muscles more and more openly not just on occasions like it 70th Anniversary Parade this year in one of the most remote places in the world chinas mountainous border zone with india out of the blue a sudden escalation in tensions between chinese and indian troops left dozens of people dead chinas Defense Ministry published videos of its forces training in tibet the message seeming to be were ready for anything the relations with the United States have soured to the brink of imbue cold war with donald trump and she jim pain at loggerheads over a huge range of issues within its own borders to the northwest china has ignored International Condemnation of reeducation camps part of a sweeping crackdown on its weaker minority. And in hong kong since a wave of protests began last year china moved more and more aggressively to assert direct control of this former british colony. And this summer the arrests of communication critics began after a new National Security door stripped away many of hong kongs freedoms. For the people. Of this crackdown in hong kong is whats most chilling of all for taiwan china. Sees the selfgoverning democratic island off its southeastern coast as a province of its own a place that must be brought under its control and heres the thing china says that it reserves the right to take taiwan by force in a speech just last year president xi jinping the brain threat like this woman puts her more functional. Barlows how it should be outsourced to the shoe shop. No wonder people in taiwan are increasingly worried i think china in the moment of expansion are trying to expand outworked the threat is very real and therefore our taiwans preparation is also very serious what is unfolding hung on right now i think gave us a hard lesson that we really need to do better to safeguard our democracy 20202030 is the most dangerous time in my opinion for a conflict china over these disputed territory and as well see its far from certain that taiwan would get any help if china did mountain attack so in this video were going to ask what could actually happen were going to examine 3 possible scenarios guided by experts whove been studying the risks for years ranging from china chipping away at taiwans defenses to a marquee an extension of an outlying island crimea style and in the final and most dangerous scenario an all out invasion something that could not only be a disaster for taiwan but bring china and the us to the brink of a war that would change the world everything that happens in medicine already happened under the shadow of a potential nuclear war because thats what this could be. Some of what were going to see and hear is genuinely frightening but if this year has taught us anything its that night messin our egos can happen and its better to be prepared planning. And think through what their actions could look like before we get into those scenarios were going to deal with 2 important questions why does china want to take over taiwan and 1st of all what is taiwan it sounds like a really basic question but this is no ordinary place theres nowhere like it anywhere in the world. This story takes us back to 949 when the island was known as formosa not out of the china sea years for most of ones home of asiatic pirates and about it is a hard mountainous leisured by learning about the size of massachusetts and connecticut combine it was the aftermath of the 2nd world war and mao zedongs communists had one victory in chinas civil war a conflict that had dragged on for more than 2 decades the defeated nationalists led by Chiang Kai Shek found refuge on taiwan where they planned to regroup and now to fight back from their charm helped to launch the attack that will drive out the garbage chiang side was supported by the United States but that dream of conquering china turned out to be a fantasy instead with the cold war came a kind of stalemate. All along both chiang and how insisted that there was only one china and that they were the rightful ruler of it. Chiang was a fervent anti communist but he was no democrat he ruled taiwan as a military dictatorship right up until his death in 1985. It was only under this man later. Quake the taiwan began moving towards democracy. Riding convoy is being described by the International Community and also bua lot here in taiwan as the father of time with modern day democracy and why is that he is the key person who really cared a step by step democratize ation from the early ninetys up until the night in 96 when he held the 1st democratic president ial election in taiwan history and of course he won that election by a very comfortable margin and he just went on through further consolidate all the Democratic Institutions here in Taiwan Police reforms were a historic turning point for taiwan. Ever since taiwan has made huge economic strides and flourished into an open raucous Democratic Society of almost 24000000 people. And how to deal with china has been one of the major battlegrounds of taiwanese democratic policies from 2008 to 2016 former president pursued a policy of trying to improve relations with china. Economic times grew stronger. But eventually there was a black. Student protest called the Sunflower Movement sprang up in 2000. Accusing me of going too far with a Major Chinese trade agreement. People feared it would make taiwan to depend. On the election cheers later sign when the opposition d. P. P. Party swept to office she became taiwans 1st female leader on a platform that was far more critical of china and confidently asserting taiwans distinct identity oh well i think that was. So that was. So. Joseph says foreign minister consignments government he spoke to g. W. In taipei you understand that i want to sarabhai china we elect our own government our president democratically democratically elected our parliament is also democratically elected we have ministry of Foreign Affairs that engages with the International Community so taiwan is not run by china taiwan is not part of the p. R. C. And that is the fact that doesnt go down at all well in beijing we spoke to expert wang who young who runs the think tank is close to the government they are really thinking more. Separation from china you know theres a lot of. Things that the current regime is doing that really not good for the for the course trade relations. But Public Opinion in taiwan seems to be moving in size to rection. People are identifying not according to chinese roots but as taiwanese in may 2020 at the Pew Research Center did a survey amount how many people and the number the percentage of people identifying themselves as taiwanese just again growth to be here through a high while the number of people identifying themselves as chinese continue through. Just decline and i think that just reflects the growing generational difference between the Younger Generation which importance of maintaining identity birth as the ordinary from which still felt like a big part of their life has a very deep connection to china meanwhile taiwan successes have continued to add up just one example its high tech economy is home to t. S. M. See the worlds most advanced silicon chip maker driving a huge proportion of the worlds smartphones in the coronavirus pandemic taiwans affective response has become the envy of the world. And his society has opened up in striking ways even becoming the 1st place in asia to legalize same sex marriage and 29. You would think that for other liberal democracies like here in the west taiwan would be a natural friend and ally well i think if. Only 15 countries in the world recognise taiwan as a sovereign state most of them tiny but the rest long ago switch recognition to china even in europe proud democracies britain switch recognition to china way back in 1950 france did the same in 1964 and germany followed suit in 1972 in fact the only country in europe that has full diplomatic relations with taiwan. If the vatican population 820. 00 finds this rethink about taiwan as a place and what kind of place that is then it is a vibrant democracy it is a tax superpower. Junko close to china export n. P. C. S. Phone think tanks but then it is a country that is just playing a role in the global system or could play a role in the global system that would be quite substantial and very close to where europe asked in a lot of the conversations and so it is quite surprising in a way that our relations are not as close as they could be. With any attempts by European Countries to strengthen ties with taipei to meet with powerful pushback from china. During a recent visit to taiwan by a group of lawmakers from the Czech Republic chinas foreign minister threatened that the delegations leader would pay a heavy price. For. The. Truth. Likewise chinas influence means taiwan is frozen out of Key International bodies including the United Nations the same goes for the World Health Organization which has been especially frustrating for taiwan during the coronavirus pandemic the Chinese Government was able to mobilize. In the International Organization to block that was participation no matter how many like my to countries there are in helping taiwan we think that the. Cot or the school of tower people from participating in this International Waters asians its not fair to that when its people taiwans diplomatic isolation deepen profoundly in 1979 u. S. President jimmy carter welcomed dunk shopping to the white house and switched diplomatic recognition from taipei to beijing. The u. S. Didnt abandon taiwan completely it softened the blow some reassurances on the fence but crucially those reassurances are far from watertight one is that the United States would provide defensive weapons and services to taiwan as necessary and did not define what defensive end plays a is an expert on taiwan and china at the c s i s think tank in washington and then the 2nd obligation is to maintain the United States at south are and their military capability in the west pacific. To prevent intimidation and coercion against now notably that is not a commitment to come to taiwans defense in the event that it is attacked it means that the United States is a sort of hard life for taiwan. It sold large amounts of weapons to taipei over the decades something that stepped up a gear under the trumpet ministration we see is. More serious than ever in their commitment to peace in this region the United States being a regular rice is on sale to taiwan whenever we have. To request the United States to make one they review it right away. Make it available to taiwan after that review period so its being quite regular. Very much. But in the meantime china has become dramatically powerful as proudly displayed on the streets of beijing making it pose a far greater threat to taiwan the taiwanese military is completely too often comparison and adding to the challenge it doesnt even have enough for. The armed forces have been producing videos like this to try to drum up. Among potential young soldiers but theyve been struggling to make up for a shortfall left by phasing out of conscription. So thats where taiwan stands right now in 2020 a striking Success Story in many ways and yet incredibly vulnerable to china. So now to our next question why does china want to take over taiwan. Its 2015 and blurry footage from chinas state media starts to circulate around the world. It shows a military exercise at a remote desert base but theres one thing that seizes attention from that building in the background and various shots looked very familiar to people in taiwan. Is appear to be modeled on the president ial office in taipei a. Symbol of taiwan self government. Satellite imagery later seem to confirm the similarity. One made official protest but trying to brush them off saying the trial was just a routine exercise and yet theres nothing hidden or new about chinas desire to take control of time or space goes back all the way to the Unfinished Business of the chinese civil war. As we saw earlier both mao and Chiang Kai Shek said there was only one china and they were the rightful leader of it and even today one China Remains as sacrosanct principle for beijing has a bill this year the same language sure the same culture the shared some background and theres nobody to be even a system as seen from beijing with hong kong having returned to china in 1997 taiwan would be the last piece in the puzzle for chinas restoration as a unified great nation overcoming a legacy of historical scots i want china actually in the past. 10200 years john as supper foreign powers. Are humiliated by many western powers. So so i think that its important that china maintain. A unified country and the particularly when china now is already become. A more prosperous more economically developed and so that you know people can really enjoying the. Benefits of becoming a greater china. You know if i was. Made. But theres more to this the nationalism and identity taiwans position in the socalled 1st i then chain scutching chinas southeast makes it highly important from a Strategic Point of view controlling it could fatally undermine that americas Current Power in the region and of taiwan paul. If one were to be occupied by the Chinese Military analyst in eastern wrote a book the chinese invasion threat working through 3 strategic questions then it becomes almost impossible to defend our entire network or through the image of the how do we. Blockade at that point or how do we go south korea how do we go from the pulpit because at any time they could be invaded from. There and conversely controlling taiwan would be crucial for china suring up its own position trying it would be quite fearful if another country had forces on taiwan because then it would have eyes in a sense a base place where. Force could be projected against china and that is the biggest fear that china has. Now if the chinese were able to occupy taiwan in that way aid them in projecting force and preventing interference by Foreign Forces and particularly the United States in 2005 china made this and matter of national law. The National Peoples congress for great on an anti secessions all the declared we unify and the motherland as the sacred duty of Chinese People taiwanese compactly it included. It was passed by 2896 votes to 0 john is going to pass a law to take this risk seriously and d theres a strong we were 1. 31. 4000000000 people. Behind this the National Peoples congress or about. You know you know they were not tolerate any succession the law held out the prospect of a home kong style approach of one country 2 systems china you know one cons why country 2 system china would lead. Taiwan to do whatever the konami side and and also a Free Enterprise is capitalist whatever that it would not be really impressed by china so as long as the sovereignty is within one china policy this system taiwan can keep its existing system without changing the us recent experience with one country 2 systems has left the concept in serious doubt and under xi jinping the threat of resorting to force against taiwan is quite open as we saw earlier. Function. Bardos heights egypt beyond source of the shooting. And the latest National Peoples congress only added so fierce that the threat was becoming more explicit so i think you know theyre there which i think send a signal that of course china wants to have a peaceful but. You know were not this ambiguity in chinas messaging and in the anti secession lloyd self leaves a lot open to interpretation so its not completely clear what chinas red lines are but the most important. Are the circumstances i believe is the one that is completely open ended and that is in the anti secession are basically says if over time taiwan does not agree to unify peacefully then force can be used to achieve that goal and that is really one that is quite worrisome and with every passing year chinas military has been getting stronger with massive investments here exactly the sort of weapons that it would need to invade taiwan and crucially to deter repel any american attempt to stop it james for now was chief of intelligence for the u. S. Pacific fleet until 2015 he recalls how he watched the chinese navy grow since the beginning of his career and the chinese navy that time had a few ships from the north sea fleet but really nothing else of concern and now 30 years later the chinese navy is larger than the u. S. Navy in terms of total number of ships. And they certainly are outpacing the maybe the u. S. Maybe in the western the 7th fleet where im sure and for the last 5 years plus theyve been producing literally 5 times as many ships per year as the u. S. Navy produces. Those ships include 2 aircraft carriers and many of these amphibious warfare ships the sort of vessel that could bring the marines to time lots. And china has the edge in crucial missing wants to the sales designed to destroy precisely the kinds of ships that the u. S. Might use to defend taiwan theyve invested a lot of time and energy to become the worlds leading leaders Cruise Missile technology they have these and their ship Cruise Missiles like the white tree which has a 300 kilometer a mile range thats longer than anything that United States. Right now and its also supersonic and it has these high. Capabilities that can defeat the presence of systems close in Weapons Systems and theyve built them you know by the truckload substantially so take all this together and chinas dramatic military buildup hasnt just totally outgunned taiwan its even made it a serious rival to the United States in the pacific even 5 years ago the ability of the United States to come to taiwans defense was greater than it is today. And when the balance of power shifts chinas favor the prospect looms larger that it will decide to act james final says theres even a kind of historical deadline on the horizon the 100th anniversary of communist china in 2049 i believe that whoever is the leader of the peoples republic of china on 1 october 24th and arent going to stand up and burn of the propensity to give a speech to the people who are trying a 1000000000 plus people and that person is going to have to say we have achieved a great rejuvenation of china and we are now completely restored in order to race the shame of the century of humiliation for the log used in any invasion would have to take place within the next decade for the dust to settle in time for that momentous date my theory is if you could take 20 years is the time that the world would forget anything then you back that up from 2049 youre basically at 2030 and so ive characterized what were in right now its just begun its the decade of concert 2020 that 2030 is the most dangerous time and there are in my opinion for a conflict with china over these disputed territory chinas leadership has the motivation and increasingly has the meat to make a military move against taiwan so what might china actually do. Coming up in part 2 weeks i mean 3 scenarios 1st chipping away for taiwans result by military and hybrid means. Theyre constantly getting taiwan with. This information misinformation. And of course. The hope i think in beijing. I want to. Eventual just. In scenario 2 the russians crimea playbook inspires a shadowy takeover of outlying island. While rushing into green then people. Know. And so it creates a very serious problem. For the marine and army troops. That the care isnt there do they shoot or not and when do they shoot and at what point did they start shooting. And finally in scenario 3 a full scale invasion. She would have 1st initially a joint our Strike Campaign which would launch in all these missiles it would just be one missile or one installation in taiwan they would use 45. 00 maybe 10 to want to make sure that every defensive position in taiwan had been attacked every airfield been cratered every naval port stable and we hear warnings that d. C. Dangers could come much sooner than we might think. And if you look at the internal situation in china at this moment their economy says being affected by. The chinese leaders the authoritarian leaders may find taiwan as a copying a scapegoat and therefore taiwanese to be. About the chinese possible use of force against us thats only part 2 of taiwan china thats next talk it. All sort of mr frank because. It was a probable explanation indigo has since become a symbol of sustainability and success thanks to a project at the edge of the lead to. 30 minutes on d w. 2 current big diesel engines losing her sense of trying to suit. In only 3 lines in the country. Traveling to a name near by train is an Insurance Claim that leads to the treasurers leap but the days of the real world are numbered. The last trains. Are 75 stone. In the heart of london trading. For cosmic. Whats in store for the police list for the future with. Pretty major cities to go to insight please enter. Data. This is w. News and these are our top stories u. S. President donald trump has a left of the Military Hospital where he spent 3 days being treated for kofi 1000 he was driven into a waiting helicopter for the short flight back to the white house the president had earlier tweeted that hell be quote back on the campaign trail soon. This years nobel prize for medicine has been awarded to 3 veralyn gests harvey alter michael hart and charles wright