Will the growing crisis have on the greek russia and its all for its hereon leader Vladimir Putin so long to the point we ask belarus protests how will putin reacts. Off thanks very much indeed for joining us here on to the point and my guest in the studio are belarus born all go over from the Research Center for Eastern European studies at the university of brim and she says active support for the wounded bellicose leader would only damage russia the mood in bands because neither pro russian nor pro european also with us is causing a dont pollute experts on russia and Eastern Europe and a former moscow correspondent she says its almost inconceivable that russia would simply tolerate a democratic turner. And a woman. Who is from the w. s russian desk he argues that so far nothing has happened in belarus that putin really needs to react to. This interesting comment will come to that shortly 1st of all the girls will go there and over dramatic events in your home country are we seeing the final days of Alexander Lukashenko. When i think we have to make a difference that people you know these brutus decided that it is protest and what the president and his of the scene because i think there is quite a huge difference so for me it is obvious that the vast majority of people there is to not see the president as the legitimate president anymore i mean its not for the 1st time that the elections were falsified and valorous will know that it has been happening for 20 years already very cautious of these the last days of president lukashenko. These could be the last may be weeks months whatever but i could still imagine a scenario where when he would come back to the oppressions and a lot will depend on his communication with russia its a very important Factor Analysis so there could be a return to the status quo of 26 years. Not in that sense maybe for him but not for the society this aside to has already changed and he will never believe that that he cheated anymore and as he used to be quiet for a long time. But we definitely see that the relations between state and society has to have changed and that there is and we also see that you know also on the level of local office or it is and also some cases within the elites people start consider a t. And its really about lots days of him so isnt there a good question that you ask i think that everybody in belarus is asking now this question a lot really depends on what those people who are asking this question now will do it tomorrow because enoch is in the door blew do you say you are worried for the brave people of belarus why the next. I mean i have been last time to a bit of those in 2011 and then i witnessed already how people react how all men and so on react on very small protests i saw in 2011 and i mean we saw the videos and photographs from torture from torture of people in jail in their rules and i dont know if i would be so brave as a bit of those in to go on the streets today and to protest especially given that you are convinced that Virginie Putin is not going to allow democracy to take hold in belarus what makes you so convinced. This is a threat to his own power because. Putin he is an author a tarion leader and hes had several times that he would not tolerate a system of regime change provoked by mass protests on the streets because if that would work and there was this would be a sign and its already assigned to the opposition and to normal people in russia that they could also that this is possible not only in theory but in practice its a big issue for russian government because russian government see whats happening in the. Street protests next in the role of mass protest in the former soviet republic right georgia ukraine even kyrgyzstan for years trying to prevent such scenarios in russia so what is going moscow 20112012 its a similar happenings on the streets similar must protest with the huge enthusiasm from losses in the russian government and Security Forces were very professional in suppressing these protests no im afraid i hope for. The best but im afraid that could be not be the last they saw of location let me put it its going to very long an interesting political biography and there was a time when. Sort of flirted with democracy do we know so we agree that he now does it no longer does democracy. Put you clear if deliberately i said he said there was a couple of couple of years ago an interview with Financial Times he pronounced liberal democracy that liberal side enemies of the russian state since in this street protest in russia 2011th 2012 and if you have a grave of state repression in russia since that time. Why even though given this sort of this cautious or feeling that you have been expressing why have people been willing to go out onto the streets no way in such numbers why have they been willing to take between us and be imprisoned well there are quite a lot of reasons for that and actually it happened long before the election itself we have to understand that the society and valorous was politicized at large. Before the election so i mean what what what was saw in the last week and also several weeks before with this new you know female trio that were mobilizing people so in their regions they just gave a new dimension to the health protest most people will get politicized and that not as due to the in consequent information policy during the pandemic so people were either not tech by the actions taken by the state that were not tempted by they expressions of the president himself because he made really some victim blaming expressions in terms of people who died from coronavirus or exam for example well he told people Something Like oh how can you live if your weight is a 130 kilos or why i walking on the streets if youre already over 70 or 80 years old he was talking about you know that for my actor and the tips key of this person was a real a well known and he never apologized so its really a people were shocked and its one of the factors and now we have also comic effect as a new faces in politics and its just coincided all those factors that coincided. I think is just you know that best thing of her look i shrunk of that she had all those factors at the year of elections so people will not to contend with it state and also there are there are great personally with look at the so that united under the slogan everybody but one which means everybody but the question and thats why they were actually ready to to give their votes for your kind of guy who is not a petition sheet you know. Housewife a wife a. Blogger that that is a fine for me or very highest high protest most people just dont care who they just want to get rid of the president whos in power for 26 years ok everybody but one Alexander Lukashenko the. Strongman is however still in power he only troublesome by helicopter these days were told lets take a quick listen to how he in this it is the situation in belarus developing. We need to approve a new constitution so the opposition wont be against it it needs to be approved in a referendum because our previous constitution was approved in a referendum. And based on the new constitution and if you want it we will hold new elections for the Parliament Presidency and local government bodies. Because you know what do you say the prospects of fresh elections would with the opposition accept the elections if president look at trying to were going to stand again for the presidency. I heard. You were answer because you were at this news about it was reported today that marina crescent was one of the few girls of the. Joint staff command of the opposition declared that they are in a position would allow it to take part of the new election. Interesting. But i mean what. I said i guess its only he wants to win time and hes not alluding to the it is all about me its all about momentum here because. It was only about how important a momentum is because the opposition it seems to happen quickly there were many it was hugely important and youre completely right that it was then i think of the 1st that youre so very dramatic pictures with great completely different dynamics that 10 years later then they slater because now they have like a kind of a slowing economic and the numbers of people on the streets are decreasing in the European Union took 10 days to organize a special summit on there was 10 days and. Yesterday. 5000 people in the streets in the Bennett Place in the pen its very means which is like a very low number compared to the previous demonstrations and the next one will be on sunday so 4 days without street actions interesting as weve already seen that have been protests in the past and very few people would accept that this is not a time for change but some have been absolutely euphoric and thats becoming a little bit more questionable as things as regards momentum change in the way that weve just been hearing. I think this is incredible weve never seen the people of belarus this happy this free villa racines you are incredible and we love you. This shows that were all united and that we want to protect our right to vote freely and stage free election is. The protesters are related but they have still not one. That landed Tikhonov Scalia has become their leadership figure her husband who had actually been a candidate was arrested in a statement from exile in lithuania she confirmed. Repaired to take on the responsibility and the role of leader of our country. The nation must calm down. We must stay united. Thats new elections can be held. And the protests are continuing as many workers in states and threes and that state t. V. Are going on strike how long can look at shingle hold out. The answer to that question will depend on how much the opposition can remain united is the opposition united or is dead beginning to see. Where have i think we have to be a bit cautious when its a position because its not really you know this classic Party Position and it would think about when we say a position here in a best its really kind of a Grassroots Movement that we are observing now and so i mean as a former housewife and now we have they were presented different from other teams of the most public candidates but these go to Nation Community of that to be observation now its really not the you know this position that we used to so there are people from you know pretty people from Civil Society. People from also from strike teams from the state on enterprises there are just people well known people. Who have gained some popularity that. Prize you know do you in your heart of hearts believe that you have a leader that you have a figurehead who couldnt deal do not movement they still do not have the lead in that has been the problem. Begins to to be a problem because that it was actually more or less i think their position all of their position actually because because they didnt have a leader because. People learned to sort themselves people learned to be solitary and people sort of denies they sort of organized through social media and so on so it was ok for them to build out leader in a distant. And oscar is just you know a symbolic figure a technical candidate but now it could be a problem because somebody should you know initiate those negotiations and there should be some fugere who also would be you know seen also by the authorities as a serious to get because its not such a figure for the president by no way because he doesnt just doesnt believe you know in women power and so on so i would say that this could have been this former minister of culture and use that a lot who is now in this committee that if this everything is still of the very beginning and we dont know if youve been maybe already have some contacts within this committee or could you just mentioned women or women whove played a very prominent part in the process movement in recent weeks or so into the streets in their thousands often wearing white and carrying flowers its been a peaceful protest against the violence some 7000 people have been arrested in many places badly beaten so theres a lot of talk there about a new generation of women coming to the fore in. A new generation of women in belarus. Its difficult to answer because i have not been i couldnt travel to the last years because i was not the visa but this one point actually where we can also talk about the possibilities of European Union because the. The engagement the context between european Civil Societies in the European Union and the levels they were i 10 i said i can survive during the last years and i think this also has a kind of a an impact on the also on young women on generations how about womens rights and so on the research that we took for young women i read. Somebody saying that until very recently the word feminist and semitism the the the idea use my own were hardly used to move very often sort of negative categories that is refusing to change we are told well as section is a reg question is actually ive been thinking about that for weeks its a very paradox a tradition that we have now because from the one hand it would have a woman has openly admits that she is actually just a housewife and she is there only to help her husband cannot of the prison and at the same time you know to rescue the rest of the Russian Society from the dictator but she openly admits that she wants to come back as long as you know then you elections that there. That from the other hand of course this this female trio that weve seen 3 weeks before elections of course it gave some other discourse to that they were saying politics because you know women where not see there is you know some kind of serious he goes and. Mentioned it himself for he said that that i was in the constitution of us was not written for women of more than negative reaction came at once on his words and i think it was also one of his biggest mistakes before the actions because people support its that line and her team actually out of protest and out of solidarity so it was not that much about politics of course they also wanted new elections but i did not think of course that people saw a president in her it was just you know the sign of sort of direct into shock a whatever happens were just were just on your side and we do not agree with this for the president for one of the point we must come back to is it because you mentioned the role of the e. U. The e. U. Has issued this statement saying we stand side by side with the people of belarus how much comfort will i give to people in both groups or not i think on the one hand of course they need. Solidarity to they need moral support on the other hand its very dangerous and we see you know that russian propaganda already is working and doing their job that they want to discredit the protests and whether. It. Is a movement finance and organized by some western actors as was said by the question go and also you can read this today and yesterday on all of the different channels from Russian Politicians and from state around the russia saying the same thing to every socalled colorful revolution in the group in the former soviet republic and in there are up countries as well so basically the same there as you from russia is all the time this is from sponsored by very stern countries or very the United States by the European Countries regime changes. On the. Street protests not not on the legal way by elections but on the way of street protest so its a reason from russia you know its been said very very often the blood the protesters themselves people like holger im sure have been sort of been saying you know this is not about being anti russian improve european absolutely not thats the thats the the most important single point people have been wanting to make i think we have to differentiate when we think about them and society and European Union. From the one hand people expect to have derek and this holiday which is already there right and there is also you know 5 some fines ready to help from the European Union to help those who suffered from oppressions and you know Civil Society to support uncertainties outside interference the energy that it wants and thats why i say differentiation because on the other on the other hand they all should be there are cautious not to make this impression that you know they are kind of protein aid and also within this you public can meaty i mean they already offered mediation or actually they asked for mediation from the European Union but i think this you know mediation observation you had to be aware were cautious because it could really cause a very emotional reaction from russia if you are talking about mediation with this court can lead to i think it would be reasonable to at least try to invite russia so that to show that these protests i really am not a russian or not or not china or whatever but its really a very internal problem of belarus says that i want to new president and then most important thing for russia is that valeries would not become craning in sense of. And this is also not true its not true daughter says not until russian and its better just to tell that to be so and not to try you know bring this geopolitics within this society and to to i think i think it would be very difficult and i dont know if it really makes sense for European Union to try to explain to putin that they have no the geopolitical interests even if they dont have any way putin already has has that and other office and Russian Politicians so they need this this image of they might be expecting that actually from the coordination can make team may give a quote stress that once again that theyre really not i think it was well its problematic that they are talking all day. And i think the Cultivation Committee could also have said ok were actually interested in the interest of all our neighbors is important i think this is the message that putin is still hoping to hear but is this i wonder is this episode is this chain of events now is this an opportunity for putin or a threat. I dont see that as a threat for him its not over just cyrus in reaction of this coast of cold streets brought to st koehler for evolution because russia exercising their actions theyre making distractions perfect for years because the orange revolution in ukraine 2004 was a huge surprise for a russian government and state authorities so they react that if there is a no theyre collecting experience with these street protests not only in russia but outside of russia as well so its for them its like collecting know how to deal with these kind of situation for the future if Something Like this would happen in russia which is. Right now probably not rated or not very realistic but theyre collecting experience and know how to deal with this kind of instability inside of a country and suddenly put in has become an expert in disruptive politics how far do you think hes going to go in disrupting the belorussian party here i think that the russian government getting support from russia in terms of expertise how to suppress the street protest how to deal with this not only to beat the people and not only to torture people in front of the camera but the to do you on the more subtle way more. More brits use very no. More precisely. The. Couple of symbolic figures probably or to make the future prison of thousands of people in the jail but more. So. Little of information distribution. Or so i mean. In those origins already did the fall of longer before elections all the most important figure is all the position candidates or potential candidates because they were never never registered and everybody had at least some kind of experience in street porters they were already in jail far before election so what always seen though is a Grassroots Movement and thats thats make it problematic for this for the government and just to come back to this russia problem because i do and this tend to that of course for ports and it is you know kind of bad example for russians to show while people can do it yourself but at the same time im asking myself what would get i mean he would do laws. As long as bill i would sense would see that it is intervening i dont need to tear it when its some other and obvious form. Russia would those the most Friendly Society in terms of russia because the most friendly. To another nations and thats a very important soft power instrument and russia is already present their most blower since because russian Russian Media are still very popular in belarus Culture Church family connections and so on mentality also big cut and so on so its really you know it will not disappear even as long as president is not there i mean i met this dependence will not see this mechanisms of influence will not disappear also economic dependence from russia is huge so i dont really see the point why would she do that because he still can have influence on the. So there are potential president ial candidates very quick. This is very important yeah. I think its also a chance for him because. The relationship between pushing is quite difficult and im not sure if really wants to keep. It isnt it better for him to get rid of him because he didnt. Didnt recognize. How do you sleep at night. Despairing about the situation i mean i began to practice perry at the very 1st night i was. Have to leave it there im afraid is going to very interesting discussion if youve enjoyed it as much come back next week. Good shape on the search for super friends. Or are you familiar with any of those who died today. That elio dominant low carb diet living a diet. Is totally healthy and it is absolutely one of something neat trick becomes an obsession in good shape. In 30 minutes on deep blue. Like. A mug or just was food for the russians so. Come to run steve. So many different walks of life. Some are pumping. Oddly trying to get all of that come straight from the heart to receive input when theres no more delusional marsh book interactions hamas. From. The logs to their final resting place the russians are d. W. Documentary. Has a virus spread. Why do we panic and when will all this and trying to just through the technical and the weak link read your blog. Show is called spectrum if you would like and information on the coronavirus or any other science topic you should really check out our podcast where your podcast you can also find us at dot com the science. Is for me. Is for you. Is for help. For a total. Beethoven is far. From his for playing. Beethoven 2020 the 250th anniversary year long. Plane. This is the w. News live from berlin russian doctors refused to allow a leading dissident a lesson of the transfer to germany for treatment but doctors also say theres no indication that the bali was poisoned he is fighting for his life at this hour in a siberian hospital not even his wife has been a lot to see and a german plane is waiting to airlift now volunteers are. Also coming up the fellow was hit
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