Transcripts For DW To The Point 20240712

Thanks very much on joining me here on to the point coming to you from berlin and my guests here in the studio are kirsten vest far from the German Institute for international and Security Affairs who says north stream 2 has serious political implications but the Collateral Damage of u. S. Sanctions is far reaching also with us is michelles 2 month Foreign Policy experts with the berlin based we do need to cite he argues that europes quarrel on nordstrom too is the biggest failure in german Foreign Policy in more than a decade and a woman eric rohmer author and journalist who writes for the Los Angeles Times and eric believes that the u. S. And many other countries have long warned germany about the pair. No string to those warnings were however big no. Thank you very once again for being here in berlin today with me because then i would like to begin with you as an Energy Expert to tell us what makes north stream to so important and so very controversial. I thought i would say the political. The political context attached to it at the end of the day its an economic approach checked with with an economic basis linking the big the russian produced so with its made to market you know rap but of course it has the project has high political implications and well this has been used by many as a symbol save. Her because from for a long time this story has been sort of on the back burner now it appears to be boiling over why whats going on well in germany has been on the back burner germanys been ignoring this for a long time president obama warned about this trump warned about it congress has been talking about this is not just an economic approach it goes without saying that it will germany cannot make a 3rd party quote thats eco marker called that but its obviously a political project when the west has sanctions against ukraines and russia since the ukraine problem 2014 so it is a political issue germany can call it what it wants but its not just germany versus us its also ukraine and against germany its a lot of Eastern European countries poland is upset about this france was upset about this its basically a project to shaft the ukraine and keep all the oil and gas going away from ukraine so germany has just been ignoring the complaints and the noise out there for 5 or 6 years now and then nobody should be surprised that its coming to a boil now this was this is an accident waiting to happen and they should have known is going to come coming to a boil 3 u. S. Sentences have told german citizens and others to quote see sent to vittie supporting the construction of the pipeline. Well face potentially fatal measures that is very aggressive language these are 3 senators from Gas Producing area so its very aggressive language to an ally absolutely these are senators these are only senators so i dont think you need to get too worked up about that but congress was a very Strong Majority in voting for these sanctions so germans are making a mistake to think its only trump versus germany and trump may be gone no trying to be gone but the next president is going is probably going to be singing the same tune. Too much the german side have been saying theyve been talking about this is that these comments or the letter from the senator as neo imperialist a declaration of economic war is not all halted errol is not meant seriously no i think there is of course neo imperialism is very symbolically laden word but i think theres cons census and merging in the german elite. Directed against the kind of what they see as an American Intervention into ference in german Sovereign Affairs i think both this pipeline has been German Foreign Foreign Policy failure and so far as many was not able to unite europe but on the other hand it has opened read it has opened the floor for donald trump to attacked me on that and what i see now is that this bipartisan approach in america fadia from the american side to understand whats happening and germany and that theyre actually weakening those who are criticizing the pipeline within germany and then lots of people who criticize this pipeline including the. Custom can you just explain for us because it will be difficult for some to grasp what basis can 3 congressmen from the United States insist that something happens or doesnt happen in a german port. Basic can you that nature off extraterritorial sanctions applying u. S. Law to to to a state and this is exactly why this is how. They response in germany the reaction is. So huge because this is very. Into stuff from the fence and at the end of the day its also. Regulatory affairs that is the Legal Process is it legal or illegal im not a lawyer but my understanding is that this is going much too far both in legal terms but also in political terms because in germany the background and the reading is that there is a sanction in this letter but there is a wide range of sanctions and its not its no longer clear with all the list of sanctions coming out of the us what are the motivations behind it and what is really the the context. And also the decisions behind the to the lift so this is something and then it is really seen as part of geo economy grind of the playing out with. Eric i just wonder i mean leading commentary here in germany said nobody likes to be blackmailed and the suggestion is that the germans are going to push back will the americans be worried. I dont know i mean the United States is trying to keep the sanctions up against russia russia depends heavily on these gas exports the russian treasury gets a lot of money from germany from these gas exports and the United States as as mentioned is interested in selling liquefied natural gas to europe a lot of americans want to ask themselves why are we spending so much money on defense of europe when when germany goes and spends billions of dollars a year on a natural gas from from german. From russia so all these things come into play from the accusation to show the germany is making itself a hostage of russia that it is moscows mercy that this is a russian trojan horse and also a greek trojan horse well you see there was the pipeline not stream 115 years ago when this pipeline was build my major criticism was that germany might become dependent on russian gas since then more than when t. Terminals for liquid to fight natural gas have been build in europe there are plenty of opportunities to get gas from all directions this pipeline is not dangerous in so far as we need this gas no we dont need it it is in additional off so and and and that is why i think its simply beyond the point and missing the point that this is a politically explosive project but economically if you have the pipeline there wouldnt be a major problem not even for ukraine which has just concluded its treaty with russia on the continuation of gas deliveries. Until 2024 and you can be sure that they will be an additional there will be an additional agreement after that also in some rational bit of the same time you are arguing in the statement we had at the top of the show that this is the greatest failure in german Foreign Policy in the last 10 years indeed because as i said germany didnt manage to bring europe together it didnt manage to integrate the Baltic States the critics of the pipeline and it pushed through and i think this is 1st and foremost something which happened in the aftermath of the refugee crisis in 2015 when nobody in germany paid attention to what the then economy minister gabriele did who is a close. And of but it was a who pushed forward this project and this has been overlooked. And despite the criticism in initially from many observers including erik in looting others including me so i think this is this is something which falls now back on to all feed after 5 years that surprises me all the time germany always acts like the big european in europe. But theyre ignoring Eastern Europe and theyve been ignoring Eastern Europe for years on this crane poland lithuania latvia these countries that know russia well and said dont do this but germany just went ahead and did it anyway i mean that surprises me is that i think there was a certain misreading in lynn that the failure point and i think the misreading was that germany itself the self perception was that germany was clearly pursuing a dual strategy of containment the soviet russia plus cooperation so basically the old pattern of the cold war and containment is just its clear because germany in that kind has been instrumental to keep up the consensus on the e. U. Sanctions so this was kind of. Being the back crowd and wife carolyn thought the other us would accept within the package of cooperation this north stream to a pipeline which was also giving germany a certain leverage. The kremlin and i think the other misreading than was the dynamics inside the you to go for an energy union and to really drive this and to certain extent you know it all of the. Rhetoric from berlin around its an economic project the legal and regulatory background was somehow based on the status quo in 2015 and what was ignored was this big push in the e. U. To change the regulatory approach to change to deal with russia a common view. And indeed later on it was not chief to have the consensus but i think thats where the major news for you beings on the job is going to have to talk about russias role in all this in just a minute lets start 1st of all though a closer look at the pipeline that is the focus of these rising tensions between the u. S. And germany. Nord stream 2 is an ambitious European Russian Energy Project once completed the pipeline costing billions of euros will transport gas from russia through the baltic sea to germany it runs largely parallel to the existing north stream one pipeline after u. S. Sanction announcements in december 2019. Operations now russian ships are ready to complete the last 160 kilometers at the end of july the trumpet ministration further intensified threats supported by the us congress. This action puts investments or other activities that are related to these Russian Energy export pipelines at risk of u. S. And sanctions its a clear warning to companies aiding and abetting russias influence projects will not be tolerated get out now or risk the consequences americans fear that germany will become unilaterally dependent on russia through nordstrom to germany denies this and wants to proceed with the project the usa many in europe are saying its only interested in selling their own expensive liquid gas to germany. Will there be a trade war between the usa and germany. How explosive. Right. To ridiculous levels but it is a problem and to germany the balls in germanys court now. To see but its really once again its not just trump its the congress the congress forced to do this trump was originally reluctant to do more sanctions against russia but congress overruled him on the veto proof passage of of legislation a few years ago so its a mistake in germany to think its only just because the americans want to sell some gas here in europe and its a mistake to think its only trump and the problem may take care of itself because its not going to go away. You know the ball is in germanys kosher germany fight sanctions with sanctions. No i think its not and i think it wont because. Germany has no interest in in fighting merica economically over this and on top of it needs e. U. And the e. U. Responds because Foreign Trade is an e. U. Matter so i think theres not a consensus in the u. In the 1st place and 2nd theres not the political will but there is certainly a political will to have a common stance on extraterritorial sanctions and that is where i see a major divergence of u. S. And european Foreign Policy in the future and the u. S. Is losing europe over that over the question of extraterritorial sanction is becoming a question of the into of International Relations and how we deal with each other in International Relations so europe obviously and germany for about specific matter doesnt like to be put in the same basket like iran also we have bad major differences over the day cvo a dream and with iran on nuclear in a deep were also american extraterritorial sanctions are applied which have leading which have led to the possibility of having iran knew of having Nuclear Weapons in iran in the near future so this is this is i think the major bone of contention we will have in the future and i hope that if should trump lose these elections that Congress Might rethink the consequences of expert or authority the sanctions in the future person do want to pick up on that yes yeah suddenly i think what i would say is its not clear what is the imitation behind in washington states vast range plus its to me its not clear what is the cost and benefit to this because the sanctions do a lot of harm. They do a lot of harm to the Energy Markets where we really see apologize ation going on and then it is also a loss of credibility and to me its also not clear to look at the appropriateness of the means because this issue of feeding the beast i would simply say although its much more important to the russian budget what trump did with the tweets to establish this opec plus agreement which weve seen in in may has done much more for the russian bunch of ben and i guess else would do so and its very important and we dont see moves that so in a sense its a feeding scene in berlin is targeting germany and its part of this german right of us rival thing. That we havent mentioned chancellor merkel so far its interesting that theyre all this is all not all very supportive but the focus of the story one of the focus of the stories is her own constituency the island of who going in northern germany what is going to michaels position on the olders she seems to be sort of looking the other way who would that turn in this position has been pretty much the same over the past 5 years and now its a clear stance against this this step of the senate as. If i may have an issue that i think in 2015 medical was preoccupied with a refugee crisis when the social democrats pushed for this project so you have to see it as initially as a social democratic project now look the other way and said ok its only an economic problem and possibly underestimated then the consequences this will have. But but when it came to the question of sanctions kats sanctions ex a territory of sanctions of course then she was priced into the line and this is the problem now because of the sanctions its so difficult to have a broad controversial discussion in germany about that anymore but there are some signals coming from the German Government peter buyer medicals transatlantic coordinator in the Foreign Ministry said recently in an interview that maybe we didnt pay enough to the geo political implications of this we should have so there seems to be some reasonable thinking going on in trying to find a way out of this mess that sounds naive to assume that you know that this was always that this was never a policy of this so this line its an economic its an Economic Business projects and its a political issue seems very naive i mean the German Foreign minister told told dont you belive that he will not allow the u. S. To interfere in the way that it has been interfering in this story what kind of clout does the German Foreign minister have when he makes that kind of statement probably not very much. For mr talks a lot but i havent seen the move move the needle anywhere really about the 10th German Foreign minister to be laughable if in moscow imagery has a lot of clout there he brought up a lot of issues this week in moscow with the assassination last summer in berlin things like that but i dont think a lot of things have changed. So i have no german and no real German Response so im then gathering to the sort of the worries of the likes of ukraine and poland. Well i think i was with ma the day before yesterday in moscow and i can say that basically there was the the usual exchange of nice teas and criticism and so i think both countries are stuck and theyre the most important thing is. Germany still is the major organizer of sanctions against russia in the wake of the russian intervention in ukraine and i think 1st of all poland the Baltic States and also the United States of america need to be particularly in up holding these sanctions also in the future so should germany decided to go along what some left as social democrats or dealing with these suggest that weve finally. Bandon these sanctions they will be shoot problem in containing russia and i think these sanctions which is why the overlooked have actually reduced military tensions in ukraine and have stopped a major russian intervention in 2015 in what they call no vote also the areas in southern ukraine ok because then ill come back to you in just a 2nd lets just move move on to the showdown between washington and berlin over than old string to pipeline comes against the backdrop of water almost feels like a breakdown in relations between the 2 sides which has been highlighted by Donald Trumps recent decision to withdraw troops american troops and thousands of them from germany. Spangdahlem is one of 5 u. S. Military bases affected by the troop withdrawal of the american base in the eye field region had been in the major hub for u. S. Operations in africa and the near and middle east a total of 12000 of the 34500 g. I. s stationed in germany are to either return home or be transferred to other european nato bases President Trump has announced that the reason for this is germanys contributions to nato which are far below the minimum requirement to agree to. That. Regardless of whether or not donald trump is reelected in november germany can probably count on less u. S. Support in the future. This heavenly situation where we are well off doing well financially and growing while the us protects us with their military power and nuclear arms and europe is a thing of the past and wont be easy to recreate. That will nato be weakened by the dispute between partners. Thats the question will not be weakened by this dispute between germany and the us so how how far will that some weakness go in a yes or no so 1st of all i think donald trump is nothing very good at numbers germany now is contributing to the nato budget as much as americas contribution he probably meant the German Defense budget with germany is below what it has promised in 2014 and that is a problem i think but here were talking about american troops which will be redistributed and withdrawn from germany which were not. Of nato operation in europe but actually a part of you as operations in the middle east and africa so not directly concern in nature so this is an American Issue it will be an additional burden to the american budget so its not true what trump says its not use is serving the american cause economy but it will be and additional burden however it is a political problem because the of course it is doesnt go without noticing in russia this is direct this against nato so its more a politically politically symbolic problem than a military problem for nato. Yeah indeed i mean i think what is so tricky for bilin is this issue linkage that we see security linking it to an Economic Economic issues like like also Energy Issues and and this is not the style of birdland used to deal with the issues it was much more compartmentalized in the end so this is also something we seeing with the north stream to pipeline project and by the way i wanted to say some thing on about ukraine and poland its not to how its said out of washington that the burden didnt pay concerns i mean very little of us very much engaged in the trilateral talks in g. Thing this agreement that we see now for 5 if of having transit guaranteed through ukraine weve seen germany pushing inside the e. U. For common policy and Energy Projects like the baltic pipe for example which has paid from the european bought it. Poland with with no value to the gas fields so this is part of how its seen in germany you very very very sober way off yeah thats interesting because i was going to saying this is you know this all sounds very much on. The sort of the typical rational german approach americans the american of the sable how great is your concern that on both stories were talking about the pipeline in the troop withdrawal well playing into Vladimir Putins hands because thats one of the tropes in the american democracy yeah absolutely europe divided is good news for putin and putin. Hes happy when nato is fighting amongst themselves United States and germany are having their their problems hopefully theyll overcome them but as far as the 5 year deal for ukraine goes what happens after 5 years thats thats a problem not what happens 5 years or so but once again the whole nato issue is youre germany wasnt listening american president s been warning for a long time germany for defense and they didnt do more for defense and thats why theyre in the mess were in now because germany wasnt listening to the signals on this point going to get its going to probably not going to get finished no id be surprised to see anything thats coming out of that ok you heard it here folks thanks for joining us on to the point here if you dont believe me join the show as much as i have come back next week bye bye. For. Contacts back to the future i know i did. It was designed to fight. The new idea 3. Received a few more. Speech training intelligence spaciousness testing. 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News live from berlin no let up in the demonstrations against president lukashenko in fellow verse she had by onlookers thousands march on government buildings in the capital minsk to condemn Political Violence and demanded new elections its the biggest challenge Lucas Shanker has faced in his 26 years in power also on the program