With the planet and i think deep into the german culture. You did see him take his grandmothers day ill eat because its all that they know im right so join me to meet the japanese i think of course. Germany continues to eat its lock down the shops reopening step forwards backwards. But you dont want to be more than 70000000 people in germany having to have the virus that means we have to keep up the hygenic or general protective measures to prevent a 2nd wave. And steve you dont think its next we shouldnt become careless especially when it comes to the 1st easing off lockdown measures but it shouldnt cause a landslide of easing he. Says. Its germany opens its doors again it needs to be careful not to open the markets. Welcome to covert 900 special here on detail the news i want to get jones and dylan good to have you with us and we all want things to get back to normal and we all want to stay healthy but its a thin line between risk and reason and luckily we have scientists to point us in the right direction im joined now by to be escorts hes a professor of Public Health at epidemiology at the sheraton berlin good to have you with us so based tell me how do we get out of the lockdown without risking a 2nd wave of infections well thats a key question right now many are discussing it obviously i think if we look at the extreme options that we have which is to keep the lockdown lockdown going for another 2 years or to open up everything right away a middle way maybe maybe best we have to be very careful with the things that we have achieved in germany particularly we doing pretty well and the Health Care System works luckily not as a fact as we were afraid of so we have to open very carefully and look at several parameters to see how this careful opening up is offending the new infection rate as well as the consequences of these new infections well lets talk about these parameters because a lot of the measures obviously are based on scientific models and those models again are based on data and i changes constantly how reliable are these models then. Well these models are based on data thats correct but theyre also based on many assumptions and these assumptions are theoretical and theyre do or do not take several aspects into account such as to behavior of the population for example often use models really addressing the viewpoint of the virus so to say but not so much the viewpoint of the population so i hope that we see more models in the future that also account for psychological or social economic aspects of this infections and there together is models will point to or better way how to slowly and progressively we can open up and find a socalled normal life after 19 or up i like this the viewpoint of the virus and perhaps what well be talking about in just a moment is going exactly in that direction because there are a lot of talk about lowering the reproduction number are ill talk to you about that in a bit but 1st lets take a look at this video. For disease to spread the 1st person who gets infected patients era has to infect at least one other person and that doesnt happen the disease cannot spread that if patients 0 infects more than one person and those people also in fact more than one person and then the number of people infected rises exponentially and we have an epidemic on our hands the average number of people or their patients ear in fact is called the basic reproduction number or are not. It helps scientists estimate how disease will spread and whether measures need to be taken to contain a potential epidemic are not comprise as several factors 1st the progression of the disease the longer you are in fact says the longer you can infect other people makes them add to that the number of people with whom you have direct contact and. The likelihood that the disease will be transmitted it. Thats different for each pathogen with measles for example its enough to be in the same room as a person who is infected with hiv it takes direct contact with bodily fluids to get it i think that when you combine the 3 factors you get a rate for are not are not its greater than one it indicates the potential for an epidemic but its important to understand that are not is a hypothetical average its calculation relies on the assumption that there is no immunity in the community there is no explanation and no containment measures in place so are not as relevant in the initial phase of a disease outbreak once you have an epidemic scientists stop talking about are not and focus on are are is what is known as the effective for production number it describes the transmissibility at an advanced stage of an epidemic when a part of the population has become immune the more people are immune the smaller are gets generally people who have developed immunity to a new disease can no longer get it and in many cases they are no longer infections either. Containment measures such as quarantine can reduce are as well because they reduce the overall number of contacts between people the aim is to get are below one thats when on average infected people pass the disease to less than one other person and only then does the number of infected people go down overall and the disease can be brought under control. Professor. I was quite a lot of information what is the key takeaway that we should understand about the reproduction of bar. Well i think the reporter made a very clear a lot of assumptions go into this estimation basic information is very simple a c. Everett number of susceptible to people that someone with the infection will infect in the future with the disease important its also how many days before you actually have symptoms can you spread the virus and then this number really tells us something about how many will be affected and if the spread of the disease will be expects potential or not but this is only one measure and i think we have to really understand that this this measure has to be viewed with other information such as Health Care Systems such as factors that affect the population itself but i think the report made it very clear that these numbers are important for Infectious Disease these are classical numbers for Infectious Disease within your g. And we use them every day and be learn a lot about these models are very complex in detail if you try to calculate it right you already said that this is a lot of various aspects going into it and theres certainly a mathematical model now from british epidemiology as Neil Ferguson it aims to to spread the virus over several waves so to speak its called the hammer and the down strategy and it involves strict measures to reduce infection numbers followed by the easing of a lockdown where the numbers rise again would be a 2nd lockdown the numbers would peak again and again peri obviously and the advantage is that the Health System would not be overburdened and a growing number of people would to develop immunity disadvantage it would take months if not years to beat the virus professor could is there any shorter way. Well the shortest way would be if we have an effect a vaccination obviously that we can give to everybody but it will be months before we have this vaccination available models to hammer dance model for example of theoretical models that certainly work well lets say in the Laboratory Setting one thing that these models do not so much take into account is if it is actually practically doable so will the population accept that they can dance which means you can go out you can live a normal life and then eventually if the numbers go up such as the basic reproduction number then we go back into lockdown now have been lifts to lock down now 34 weeks everyone knows how difficult is this and people really go insane its almost impossible to keep this going without any hope that we can release some of these measures and start to have a normal life not even to speak in of the economic and psychological consequences that in addition kick in here so these models need to take into account other aspects to and they need to be practical right to be as clear professor of Public Health and epidemiology at a chevy t. In berlin thank you so much for your time. Pleasure. And now its time for your questions on the coronavirus is our science editor derek williams. Shouldnt countries come up with a common strategy for finding cave at 19 and preventing future makes. We already have an organization thats supposed to develop common strategies for preventing pandemics thats the w. H. O. Its primary role is to direct International Health within the United Nations system you know covert 19 has really highlighted shortfalls when it comes to an organized International Response i dont think anyone at this point what our view that a common global strategy for pandemic situations is more vital today than ever before but whether eventually we get one when covert 19 has settled is another question i would certainly hope so. Is a pass and hes asymptomatic that cave at 19 immune to the virus but theres a big difference between being asymptomatic to a disease and being immune to it and when youre a symptomatic for an infection you have it but for reasons involving your own immune response you dont develop the physical symptoms of that infection whats dangerous is that those asymptomatic carriers of the disease are likely spreading it to others and thats fueling the pandemic even though they show no signs of the sickness themselves being immune to a disease is different immunity comes after youve been exposed to the bug and recovered from it and your immune system has been trained to recognize and quickly destroy the pathogen when it meets it again so immune people help break the chain of transmission because at least in theory they cant be reinfected and turned into virus factories asymptomatic people on the other hand do get the virus to others and thats the key difference. I was ok with 900 special finally though we leave you with a special best a celebration corona style american war veterans and sax has turned 100 in fife but the party was cancelled to due to the pandemic instead to Veterans Police officers firefighters and a local cop club drove by his home in los angeles in honor of hearing to social distancing rules of course assams birthday wish was to receive 105 american flax one for each year of his life he ended up getting over 400 along with thousands of best day cards. That. Happy birthday i want to get jones in berlin thanks for joining. Its better than any thriller. New ways to buy crime. Crime scenes are preserved in virtual form break ins can be predicted in advance autopsies conducted without a scalpel what used to be Science Fiction has now become reality the high tech long for cement. For the. Next d. W. I. 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