Distancing its because High Compliance and social distancing will reduce the number but the most important thing to know is that if you are aggressive about medication you can get through to the other side. Also coming up nato is the mightiest military alliance in history it was not created to fight and put down the pathogen but it is a virus that now presents a clear and present danger our chance atlantic family house not c. N. N. And other service like this one before but im convinced that we will prevail to gether in unity with his soul of solidified it it for each other. To our viewers on p. B. S. In the United States and all around the world welcome we begin the day studying statistics that we would normally expect to find in history books a 1000000 people infected with a new virus. A pathogen so powerful that in just 2 weeks it shook the worlds biggest economy and the raised 10000000 jobs now this doesnt describe a plague or a crumbling dynasty this is a snapshot of our world tonight today 3 grim thresholds in the coronavirus pandemic were reached in crossed the global death toll from the virus is now more than 50000 the number of people infected has hit 1000000 and in the United States jobless claims this week and last week have hit 10000000 and europe and north america they still have weeks before the expected apex infections and deaths april will bring human tragedy on an epic scale and yet there is evidence that we have the ability to prevent a worst case ending world that in just a moment our 1st report tonight takes us to spade stretched to breaking point the wards there feel that this hospital the now the county so coronavirus patients lie in the corridors just north of barcelona medics have turned the Hospital Library into an intensive care unit spain is one of the worst hit countries the number of coronavirus states is now i jumped to more than 10000 after a record 950 deaths in the space of a day. The Health Workers on the frontline say they are being put in an unthinkable position. We are lacking the staff at the moment and the few staff that we have available are in a dangerous situation themselves and at risk of becoming transmitters. Here or as i got infected because of the lack of protective measures as we dont have enough resources there are fewer and fewer sensible protective masks. And these ideas of an office when somebody is doing things really badly and we need them to rectify this because if they dont do so tomorrow we will double the number of infected Health Workers if we continue like this there would be enough professionals to take a different patients. But there are glimmers of hope the recent new infections in spain appears to be slowing and people are recovering here at the hospital the northeast of the country doctors discharged a 93 year old man who is made to feel recovery after 5 days in isolation. Spain has been a nationwide loctite and since the middle of march and the standstill is hitting the economy hard 100000 people have lost their jobs and spains record at its highest ever monthly rise in unemployment the government says it will have to work on relaunching the economy once the epidemic is under control Health Officials say data shows the curve is stabilizing but despite the slowdown in the recent infections the fight to contain the virus is far from over. The glimmers of hope in spain and across europe are the result of what we have been doing or maybe i should say what we have not been doing a new study by Imperial College in london finds that interventions in the love in European Countries such as social distancing have limited the spread of the corona virus and saved tens of thousands of lives alex candy is a professor and chair of the Statistics Department at Imperial College london he worked on this new study professor again its good to have you on the day tell us how were you able to determine that social distancing has prevented infections in the us saved lives. Well we put together 2 pieces of information one is the observed death with covert 19 in 11 European Countries and the other is what we know about the progression of the disease caused by the virus formation beacon backache rooted from the observed death to the number of infections that must have been they are to cause these numbers of death and then from these number of infections that we have we can see how hes infectious of changed into the how of the interventions of change the rate of infections are you able to see in these numbers reverse or countries where intervention has worked better than in others i mean i assume spain and italy are on the bottom of the list because theyve had so many deaths us hot i think this is not a not easy picture there because so far the country said are not equally advanced and have been x. Spain and italy is a very much a vast and will be for assumed in our study here is that the interventions in all of the countries have a very similar effect so because it would be used information from the more advanced countries to say what these interventions what do in the countries with the less advance to tax so it wasnt specifically a study of how well these countries these interventions worked in into the country but more how overall they work ok in your study you say that interventions should remain in place until the transmission levels drop very low how do you define low levels can we predict today when those levels will be reached let me try to explain a bit how this works so if you half an epidemic you can put number is the number of new infections you half per actually infected case with people that have been in the virus how many do they infect if that number is above one then the epidemics continue to grow if its below the epidemic was slowly die out. Now what weve seen more slowly will depend on how far is the one that where much below it will drop will end quickly when we see no study we can see that this rate has already dropped down to values around one we know its somewhere sitting on one but we dont quite know whether its above or below 0 and its been 0 how far below that would become clearer in the coming days and weeks as more data becomes available ok so youre looking at the rate very the big you know gets close to war in your book below war and as this pandemic is still taking place talk to me about the caviar of your study what variables are you most worried about here. I think is all of these studies need to give very careful there will they still loves assumptions and alice who is no exception to this one we try to be particularly careful of not using or using reliable information such as it could be based on the number of observed death we dont observe it on the number of reported cases its varies quite a lot a quite a lot per country because some countries do more testing than others. But of course in our study some assumptions that are put in there as the properties of how the court 90 disease progresses for example how many people die of the amongst infected with a certain something we put in the model or how long 2 people stand factious so theres these assumptions that are in there that can change the entire picture and the other something was the same effect of interventions across the countries in again the moment dont have enough data to determine effects per country that will change over the coming weeks and months but at the moment basically we the only thing we can say for certain is interventions having a fact they bring the it break down its not quite clear whether theres enough yet it could be enough but time will tell what can we say that if there had been any you wide walk down with social distancing the death toll today would be considerably lower can we say that. Its very hard to say these kind of things and this is a quite i fully understand why would want to know whether we could have done things better i think thats maybe something for the coming years to figure out how we should have wrecked of the epidemic and how we can react to future that any anything we can say for certain is that we can say there are interventions that have place at the moment theyre saving lives so what our study looked at for example is how many lives have already been saved until the end of march so that is basically saying how many people would have died to the end of march without the intervention that are already in place and that nonetheless its all in the 10s of thousands as youve said yes your study provides or its its a cautionary tale to political leaders who ignore the data that is before them would you agree with their i think the entire demings the question are tailored to the entire world that we need to prepare better for these events you had it is now it but its quite clear that the ground there werent i think the politicians are listening now to signs trying to understand what is going on but the truth of the matter is we dont have all the answers yet we simply dont know fully how the virus behave we dont know what kind of measures we will have to place in the future whether at some point well be able to what testing we can be doing whether we have some vaccination in the future that everything is not quite clear yet that well let me let me end or towards the end maybe it will be on the positive that maybe theres a Silver Lining here keeping the distancing in place for now will save lives and it will hasten the pandemics isnt can we say that with certainty tonight we can certainly say that keeping these intentional place will reduce the number of infections. For the time being until even our dividend dies on its own when we have other things in place for example a taxi coming onstream exactly well professor alex we appreciate you taking the time to talk with us your insights are valuable especially now when so many lives are being lost thank you. Egypts media was leads in taking the corona Virus Outbreak seriously the country has expelled foreign journalists for not reporting the official outbreak numbers in the country has so far escaped the brunt of the pandemic less than a 1000 infections just over 50 deaths if fishel figures are to be believed in march an article in the Lancet Medical Journal estimated that egypt has thousands of unreported cases. A familiar scenario in egypt to appoint the army to the rescue in a crisis as a fighting an enemy the governments polished message is everythings under control. The country looks scoured museums mosques and schools are closed so is the airport a nightly curfew takes effect at 7 in the evening tourism has collapsed president Abdel Fattah Elsisi has promised billions in aid to egypt sions and ordered them to stay home early it was a different story back in february the t. V. Station closely aligned with the government was joking about the coronavirus this spoof was an interview with a friendly contagion tourism along the nile and in looks or were still in high gear until mid march cases of infection including those among German Tourists were considered outliers no one thought egypt was at risk. Until now the streets have been as packed as ever many buses too despite the rising infection rate shops have been open busy as usual with barely a trace of physical distance from many of the risk doesnt seem to have sunk in here yet. Egypt is safe this man says people are taking precautions everythings fine. We have to eat what else are we going to do how else will we feed our wives and children. Or that. The government reject any criticism of its Crisis Management despite the shortage of hospital beds doctors and ventilators instead flashy light of fact detract from the real situation whoever reports on the staggering statistics of coronavirus cases risks imprisonment or deportation thats what happened to a reporter for the british newspaper the guardian. Journalist lena is undaunted in november she was placed under temporary arrest there is no legitimacy in controlling any flow of information in my open. And in a moment like this. Part of the Citizens Rights as much as it is to have access to good basic Services Like health but also to have access to a free flow of information. Pressure is also rising behind egypts prison walls or an estimated 60000. 00 egyptians are Political Prisoners their relatives and lawyers are forbidden from visiting them as tentatively because of the risk of infection. Under cairos dark clouds human rights as well as human beings are endangered in the pandemic and this in north africas most populous country. Well that report contained images of the gyptian army spring public spaces with disinfectant we spoke to del fisher the chair of the World Health Organizations global outbreak and Research Network in singapore and we asked him what he thinks of spraying disinfectant against the. I dont know its certainly not in a thing that we recommend we dont believe people are actually out from the ground. And and you know its it makes no sense its its quite wrong just right people with chlorine are still images of i think refugees things right you know that thats wrong i think it needs to be to be stopped rather see images. Of people you know washing their hands and distancing and things like that that thats the Community Response not not spraying chlorine everywhere. Any crisis will hit the most defenseless hardest and the coronavirus pandemic is no exception to the situation in war torn region such as syrias if the province well its already dog in the medical infrastructure almost nonexistent a corona Virus Outbreak there would be devastating. Disinfecting tents at a refugee camp in adelaide province a prevention effort being carried out by the volunteer rescue group white helmets. Almost a half a 1000000 people are packed in here at times up to 10 people share a tent under catastrophic hygenic conditions many of them have fled civil war only to be threatened by the coronavirus pandemic children are taught the most essential prevention methods their parents often desperate. Yes ive heard about the coronavirus im scared for my children there is no prevention happening hardly any disinfectant nobody takes care of it. Syria is ill prepared to deal with the corona Virus Outbreak so far authorities claim to have only 10 cases but the actual number is likely much higher. Now which the hammetts a doctor at one of the few hospitals in england he alone tells us about 50 suspected cases oh oh this old man has trouble breathing. For them or another has a high fever and is feeling sick. The entire province of it live has roughly 100 tents of care beds and 47 ventilators for a population of over 3000000 a. Moment i dont know we are doing the best we can to prepare for the corona virus and we have installed a quarantine ward on top of players but we would be out of our league to confront a virus like this should it break out here. May god prevent this. But. Here in the capital damascus a curfew is in place from 6 in the evening till 6 in the morning just like the rest of syria but during the day life still moves at its normal pace and even in it live the shops are still open nobody is under quarantine abu ahmed owns a small street shop i like the virus is dangerous for all of us but we need to work in order to survive how can we stay at home ice to what the World Health Organization has so far sent only 300. 00 corona test kits to limp according to local Health Officials who have a stern warning we repair or save actually. Receive fees if you want to. Or if the corona virus spreads and it live it will hit those who are defenseless and have nothing to counter it. It is another example of how the coronavirus pandemic has turned our world on its head nato the worlds mightiest military alliance is confronting a new enemy that it was never meant to battle a virus nato has already been involved in delivering supplies to hard hit member countries such as italy and spain nato Foreign Ministers met today in a Video Conference heres nato secretarygeneral ban. Today we decided to direct our Top Commander general walters to coordinate the necessary military support to combat the crisis to speed up and step up assistance for instance spy on identifying the airlift capacity to ensure that medical supplies are delivered are lets take the story to brussels our correspondent terry shields is on the story for us this evening good evening to you terry talked to me about what natives role is in the pandemic has it become an arm of the European Union in a way. Well nato is looking for its role in the crisis brants knowing that it it has resources to to really play a positive and effective role it is not it is not exactly chord meeting with the European Union but it it does have the chance to sort of outshine the e. U. You know on on one side of brussels youve got ministers debating how much economic aid should be sent to the countries that are hardest hit how much debt should be mutual ised the nato side theyd like well weve got these big planes and we could fly supplies around to so its its sort of a you know a. Much easier decision to make when youre talking about just basic capacities with a lot of the politics sure in a way so nato really does have the opportunity to to shine here and thats what its done its got some shared capabilities in strategic airlift for example that countries can request and have requested so they can buy some plot supplies as for example romania has done from south korea and get these big c. 17 of you know shipped in under nato programs that theyve already paid for that they already contribute to so its a moment really where nato to could really step up and thats what it says its going to do now but theres a russian component in this story europe has purchased russian supplies for the pandemic crisis there are these images of russian medics in italy at the moment i mean this does not look like a good p. R. Move for nato with all. Well that might be better blamed on the European Union side because it was the e. U. That italy asked for help and where it didnt show up and then of course italy was was happy and couldnt really be blamed for taking the assistance that russia offered but nato has since. Sent some shipments there its not nato zone supplies but its countries for example the Czech Republic suddenly came up on in this nato capacity with a bunch of protective gear and 10000 suits both for italy and spain and then sent them through a nato plane but youre right i mean nato spends so much of its time and so much of its its Public Relation effort to prove that it is that it can take care of its own member countries that it can deter any russian attacks and then here you have 2 major nato allies italy and now the United States taking plane loads of supplies from russia so if youre sitting in the kremlin youve got a ready made narrative to show that nato cant take care of its take care of its allies that you know is not more powerful than moscow you know we were just looking at some pictures there of the Russian Military in northern italy that sprit disinfecting buildings propaganda video for russia im wondering deary has a virus replaced putins russia as the perceived biggest threat to nato and is the virus distracting nato from the biggest threat which is russia. Well this is something everyone is very aware of and i spoke with several nato experts ahead of this Foreign Ministers meeting who are you know sort of apoplectic that russia is has sent these these services spraying down streets was which is not what italy needs and yet its scoring all these propaganda points for them not helped we might say by the Italian Government who says hey you guys didnt help us and and and they are but yeah there is the risk that there will be some distraction from what nato calls its Core Missions of course deterring an attack on allied territory is the 1st but theyve also got things going on in other parts of the world you know youve got the anti isis fight the counter isis fight in iraq which has been scaled back 1st because of the killing of iranian general. Which forced the mission to be suspended and now you know the risk of covert spreading through the troops its been scaled back even further so if there are other forces besides just russia who also will be looking to score points off nato china is a big concern china is using the russian playbook ive heard many experts say in in pushing its own propaganda and dissin from ation there are other concerns that you know while everybody is focused on the covert response understandably what if now there was a cyber attack and all of us are working completely online what if russia or other countries with powerful powerful Online Networks should decide to stage an attack like that if you take you know it to a power station off for even 5 minutes right now were all in even more trouble than we would be otherwise so thats something that Foreign Ministers did look at today staying focused on their Core Missions in addition to the ramping up their efforts to fight the current virus this virus is exposed to build rebuild this is an excellent point in brussels tonight there is always good talking with you thank you. Happier than ever to be in the studio. When the day is almost done stay in touch on twitter either d. W. News or you can follow me a brit got t. V. Make sure you include hash tag for the day every member whatever happens between now and then tomorrow is another day well see you that everybody. Small acts of conspire change. People may come. And go africa fantastic right. Join them as they set out to save the environment learn from one another and Work Together for a Better Future for. Many caught stealing all for chiming in africa. Next on d w. Almost invisible. And deadly. 80000000 unexploded munitions luser the landscape of laos a deadly legacy of american involvement in the being acknowledged more. Constant danger for the people of mahlers. This little land of mines. In 45 minutes. Oh. Whats the secret behind this classic. Visit to so. Soon as you hear beethoven lose your mind. The story behind the music. For the jews british. Up. Beethovens 9th. For the more starts if he moves on t. W. Howdo on a warm welcome to this new edition of eco africa the environment magazine that brings to topic some all over africa and europe i am now excitement coming to you from Lagos Nigeria and joining me from uganda is my colleague sandra. Yes todays show takes us on another jungly a close up of the arent new