Transcripts For DW To The Point 20240714

A low and welcome to to the point im brian thomas thanks so much for dropping in today these are my guests to talk about our issue Suzanne Coble works for the weekly dish beagle she just came back from saudi arabia where she reported about those attacks shes convinced trumps policy of maximum pressure generated maximum counter pressure. With all the fertility god is iran expert as the Brookings Institution in doha he believes iran seems to have overplayed its thus far well calculated strategy of task. And make no act as a correspondent for the Washington Post here in berlin he says trumps so far hasnt been response may both reflect concerns over a military conflict ahead of the president ial elections 2020 and the lack of a consistent strategy in iraq. Thanks so much to all of you as well for being here today suzanne if we could start with you youre just back from iran are from saudi arabia rather are people in that country worried about an attack by iran by a war in the region they are definitely i mean there is a war going on in the country in the south in yemen since 4 years and 6 months. They dont see so much of this war but this is definitely a ripple percussion which goes straight directly to the heart of the of the country they see that there is destabilization in syria in iraq all around so they really fear that this could come to that this could come could strike the country and destabilize the country. What about iran you know the fears of destabilization in the wider regional president we just heard in saudi arabia is that an issue for the people of iran i think that no one wants to have a war in the region i think you know there have been a lot of wars in the past decade in this region that have been calamitous so so this is why a lot of regimes in that region including the iranian one but also the saudi one another has always played to fear card when it comes for example to protest so they always point to other you know war ravaged countries but i think the threat of war as you know is very much on peoples minds or the concern of war but then again i think you know neither the iranian nor the american side can really you know can really bear the costs of any large military confrontation so i think this is the hope or this is the avenue for maybe a diplomatic solution ok what is what will get that eventually but in terms of iran and the people who are supporting the regime of the mullahs this threat of war that you mention the no one wants to see happen has it supported as it led to a a firming up of the the mullahs grip on power or are the moderates still. In. In the game with the option that theyve been enjoying up to the end of the Iran Nuclear Deal yeah i mean youre asking probably about the rallying around the flag a fact if this is something that has materialized in iran or not i mean if you compare the situation today in iran to a decade ago when we had the Bush Administration in washington where we had a neo conservative ideological push for war in the middle east there was indeed a rallying around the flag among iranians back then against bushs regime change policies in the region but this time around given the you know given the very deep seated crises that the iranians face at home Socio Economic political and ecology kl i think the main blame is put on the regime for old you know for all the problems also including the economic challenges and people do understand that sanctions have very bad facts on their everyday life but they also do understand its a regime that predominantly bears responsibility for the Economic Situation so its a very difficult situation for the regime and its not and what has not happened so far which is that actually people will be killed or you know were killed so if this happens maybe were going to see some riling around the flag in fact ok as well u. K. So far the rally around around the flag effect out is leading to support for the regime rick what are the u. S. Is larger Strategic Interests right now we heard about the sanctions and how theyre affecting people in iran is it the desire to strictly stay with the sanctions regime and avoid a military conflict well so far it seems that way you have to remember donald trump is in a trade war with with china he very much is thinking about this and how this might be impacting his reelection chances in 2020 and hes sure and said himself that hes very hesitant to to engage in any sort of military action. In the region ultimately what he fears i think is that he could drive up certainly oil prices if there was an escalation which wouldnt. Hurt the u. S. Directly as much as it would have hurt them about 10 years ago or 20 years ago but the ripple effects for instance on china and then again on the World Economy and the u. S. Would be quite damaging and thats what he ok so weve established no one wants war right now there are no players in this region who would like to see any type of. Firing of weapons happening but nonetheless theres the theres the chance given the proximity of so many ships in the Narrow Strait of hormuz that something could potentially inadvertently occur are the sort of saudis concerned about that that there could be a mistake in the gulf region that could lead to some type of broader conflict i think everybody has a good reason to fear that there is a mistake which leads to an escalation and they completely describe the potential of danger we see here. What we should not underestimate is that there is a war going on since for davia is people are dying in mosques is theres a bargeman every day in jenin and what we see is the repercussions the ripple effects which are coming from there and its a combination i would say between this war and the tensions which saudi arabia and iran has right now and including certainly the interests and the leverage the americans have a about it what we also see is that. The this protection umbrella that the americans provided for so long is not is not is not given any longer. President trump is like always. Weighing what could benefit does what could affect my my my reelection so its not like we need to protect our allies which was actually. Expected by the saudis it means that the game is a complete new one dynamics are completely new the saudis feel we have to protect ourselves and that can absolutely leads to reactions which which we dont know yet and at the same time theyre dependent to even use their military assets they cannot they cannot stage a war anywhere without the consent of the americans the iranians can absolutely hurt the saudis and you never know what the enemy does next so the iranians can hurt the saudis the success of the attack on the on the Saudi Oil Refinery points to a certain weakness on for saudi arabia is that being perceived at the upper levels of the saudi military are they aware of the weaknesses that they have presented to the world and what kind of military strength do they really possess right now can you give us an idea of that especially compared to a country like iran roughly 80000000 people on a very powerful military i mean saudi is actually completely dependent on the on the military in the military feel that theyre completely dependent on the americans they have this they have 6 patel against of Patriot Defense Missile Systems but at the same time you see they have had success to shoot down maybe 200 of these drones which have not been so sophisticated in the 1st place but now theyre Getting Better you see i mean men or whoever the who sees combined with the iranians they definitely develop this this cup abilities they get they are Getting Better and their show that they can hits and the systems the saudis have to protect themselves i definitely do not sufficient means means that if they want to strike back what its like and if they want to strike back they would need to be to have these support of the americans without they comes as one reason the americans. Dissent a new contingent of soldiers to saudi arabia or last week or so rick when we look at the potential impeachment problems in washington right now how is that affecting american for a Foreign Policy in the region is america going to be more focused on its internal struggles in washington than it should be on its Foreign Policy objectives well certainly its going to turn the focus very much it also means that the house of Representatives Congress certainly wont want to give term victory on any front thats going to intensify those partisan battles even even more. Ok in terms of iran ali is it enjoying what its seeing in washington right now saying ok were going to have a respite now america is going to be busy with its domestic politics and policies a potential peace pietschmann of a u. S. President thatll give us some breathing space not only in the gulf but in the region at large i think there is still uncertainty in iran whether it is you know it is good to wait out trump or is it is it is it more prudent destroyed any kind of negotiations right now i mean you know for many for many years for the last few years people were saying that basically its you know we should wait and see but then again i mean if you look at Us Democratic president s or not more friendly to iran and also the position of the u. S. Minorities of iran is not going to change overnight so i think you know for the iranians to wait and see what will happen is you know its not that relevant but on the other hand what is relevant is the iranian calculation that is true that trump is not interested in a war this has been underpinning iran his strategy for the past half a year of you know of a serious oh well calculated steps and measures of provocation of state destabilisation of the Persian Gulf Region and also this latest attack on the Saudi Oil Refinery just shows how much iran is still convinced that trump doesnt seek war theres speculation that the attack on the Saudi Oil Facilities was in direct response to the attack allegedly by israel they did not confirm or deny on a shia militia arms depo in iraq that was armed or supplied with weapons from iran do you think thats possible well this is one of the narratives that we have besides the you know the yemen who see a rubbles narrative and this particular narrative sounds that against the backdrop of israeli attacks in august against iranian allied shia militia. The mobile is a. Forces and this particular attack by the israelis was financed but is saudis so this is one kind of narrative that we have this is why the saudi or rough refinery was a target as a response in this is a way to have a low level kind of a conflict that doesnt. Wind up into a broader conflict this tit for tat kind of response lets take a look now at iran ever since the u. S. Withdrew from the Iran Nuclear Deal raney and provocations and violence has been escalating in the gulf iran has seized tankers its threatened British International shipping in of western intelligence is right conducted strikes as we just mentioned on Oil Production that immediately took 5 percent of the planets fuel offline. Drone strikes into major all installments in saudi arabia. Rebels loyal to run were quick to claim responsibility. In the u. S. Trump thinks he knows the real culprit iran theyre the ones who should be put in their place we just impose the highest level of sanctions on Iran Central Bank and suffer in the well run. All nations have a duty to. Know responsible government should subsidise. Iran blood lust. Its also a war of words between donald trump and irans president rouhani any model the enemy has chosen a prophet he calls economic war but is in fact an act of economic terrorism against the nation and thats our rouhani responded its a military parade in toronto but the threat of a real and devastating war is still imminent in both sides will the persian gulf erupt. Into. The reagan president right is america engage in economic terrorism against iran well this is what his foreign minister was also a calling economic sanctions against iran by the United States and i think i mean its part of the iranian p. R. To you know counter that kind of move by the u. S. By using such harsh language on the other hand of course there is a whole discussion about economic sanctions and their impact on the civilian populations and their role of course human rights issues that are of concern. Its the imposing Country House to you know be big to take care off but also when it comes to economic sanctions there are also local autocrats who do benefit from any kind of imposition of sanctions so its not that easy ok where does the American Public are stand on this if they back the president s position. On on iran not going forcefully as john bolton is no longer with the administration would have liked and counting on the sanctions regime and possibly some back tell discussions where certainly no appetite in the United States for any military escalation of the in fact the president himself a promise to withdraw troops from afghanistan he hasnt done so yet hes under pressure to do so so the public certainly is very wary of any escalation of that sort but theyre also skeptical of saudi arabia so in a poll recently about 2 thirds of americans said saudi arabia is not really an ally its not really trust you know an ally did they can trust him in and that raises a lot of questions of course a lot of democrats are skeptical of iran as well but they say that trumps moves on it withdrawing from the Iran Nuclear Deal have actually made matters worse today blame him for for that escalation weve seen ok now. The u. S. Is building a coalition in the gulf right now it has 20 warships 20000. Soldiers and sailors in the region 103 strike aircraft and its been asking germany to participate in the military coalition to protect the oil that also fuels the german industry do you see germany at some point. Contributing a military component to help out with the efforts in the gulf at the end of the day they might go with that at the same time im sure that the most of the germans are not happy if its not under the flag of you and the United Nations are actually pretty much the only the only body that would accept it right now there is so little sympathy for the strategy from which comes from the u. S. That because its so unpredictable and people really dont buy it its every day they wake up and they have another strategy from from from mr trump. So they would suddenly prefer this would be under the umbrella of the United Nations but we are allies and if its not really the 1st step of a new escalation that they might go with it ok rick you mentioned saudi arabia and 2 thirds of americans not being happy with that alliance of partnership lets talk about saudi arabia and whether it should be a partner for the west its been at least through its. Allied troops in yemen responsible for the killing civilians its assassinated a journalist. Suppresses of course women and as a world leader in executions so many are asking why should the west be allied with saudi arabia. The world has a responsibility to ensure the safety and security of this region to ensure and to deter iran from engaging in aggressive behavior with saudi arabia and so some aggressor the journalist Jamal Khashoggi lived in exile in the us and was mad considering the Saudi Embassy in turkey his remains were never found Saudi Crown Prince mohammed bin suspected to be deniable for his killing of saudi arabia is also. The country has become the battlefield with saudi arabia and iran wage a proxy war for regional dominance armed with weapons from the west if shown little remorse for the damage that caused. Saudi arabia has also been aggressively exporting its religion one had this in a must their interpretation of islam they find and schools foundations amongst them europe like here in belgium should the west bank saudi arabia. Youve reported on the murder assassination im looking at this report and reporting yourself from saudi arabia what do you think is saudi arabia the kind of partner in spite of all of its strategic advantages that the west the United States europe should have definitely a difficult partnership at the same time we need to look at where this country is going to undergoes a dramatic fundamental transformation i mean you would not believe what you see right now there is that the u. S. Is definitely supporting the crown prince even if we in the west would criticize him for a lot of things the us which are the absolute majority inside the country definitely. At the same time the older people the older. The establishment is very critical towards him because he is actually. More or less for concentrating all power and all this is only on him and the king so regarding human rights. Its a huge problem that i would say because people are disappearing people may not made right and you no longer i mean freedom of speech is not happening its not existing any longer and if you dont follow. You either lose your job or you go to prison or anything and this is something which cannot be tolerated at the same time i just give you the perspective of the saudis themselves they say this is not of your business we we rearrange things as we need them we do it and sense from ation which is which is major and we need to take precautions for a lot of things which you wouldnt even understand. Are there any options to saudi arabia well i mean the problem is that its i mean we have this you know level of the on politike were we have to of course engage with every kind of state in the world this is how International Relations work this is how we can settle conflicts in a peaceful manner but then again we have to rethink really the nature of our relationships with some of the countries of that region because. You know there are mass there are important questions when it comes to when it comes to those issues. Is it really in german in germanys and europes benefit to engage in such Close Relationships with autocratic regimes or is it counterproductive because if you doing gauge with other credit regimes and you engage in a policy of terence debility that has been the hallmark of european policies towards its neighborhood for the last few decades then you will increase the contradictions in that country. So those stable partners are just you know superficially so but those contributions are all those dictatorships are not stable in fact theyre not and they contradict. Your contradictions continue to exist regardless so why not move. To a different platform in the region bahrain the United Arab Emirates djibouti couldnt they serve the purpose geographically that saudi arabia has right now well i mean there are reasons for why we have you know good relations with saudi arabia but i was only questioning the wisdom of just you know relying on autocratic regimes when it comes to issues of security or whatever in the region because i mean what we said the way forward would be that the kind of relationships and the like kind of leverage that we have political and economic these of those countries that we just use them more often and we you know you we you know pops my just some kind of conditionality is when it comes to the deepening corporation with those countries that that is a possibility that conditionality is right now are something donald trump definitely looking at in reference to to iran his question right now is he needs to contain iran and at the same time prevent a regional conflict from happening that would threaten him in the 2020 alexion says is that a major concern right now Washington Well certainly the concern is. You know on one side of the political divide you have the hawks who think that hes essentially caused all this by being too cautious on the other side you have some of his own supporters but also a lot of democrats who say he needs to be very cautious and continue essentially that path hes essentially maneuvered himself into a situation he cant really get out without looking bad for one of those its actually and its really his own problem and really hes caused that problem himself by drawing out of that deal drawing drawing out of the 2015 nuclear deal lets get some brief assessments to wrap it up suzanne what do you think will the president manage to of contain iran and at the same time avoid sparking a wider conflict absolutely has to because he doesnt have another choice ok the. So youre youre counting on him to do that ali what do you say well i think that we are in a i mean this situation is quite its you know risky and its could sleep sas collation if the u. S. For example decides to you know engage in a kind of military you know reaction to the saudi oil a toc but i think so the iranians will you know make sure that they can have some sanctions relief further down the road and for that to happen and the u. S. Has to decide because i dont think that europe has the leverage to you know to help with that process europes not a player at all right now is it i mean i mean it doesnt mean that europe doesnt play a role at all i mean it could be a facilitator media of media to of sorts but when it comes to my calls failed initiative although his best i mean he tried his best also during the u. N. General assembly to bring together brawny and trying to negotiate were still lacking from the iranian side is the green light from the Supreme Leader to tell rouhani that hes allowed to meet with trump ok so theres a lot of backroom discussions that have to happen to create some type of diplomacy moving forward id like to thank all my guests for being in today for all your comments that you brought to the table today id like to thank our viewers from around the world and remember were here next week as well im brian thomas thanks so much for being here. Submission. To. Do you speak this lack of. The best music on security matters. To you feeling the tranter towsley a secure part bracing odd thing to come to the right place. Subliminally e. W. To put. The beat one story that makes it so special. For the. Kick off my above. The button to display t w. Where is home. When your family scattered across the globe. Locking the body. Back to the roots of the bush family from somalia live around the world playing the. Urgent assistance of. Family starts october any on. The oblique. Of the book is from. The being. The book the best lead luck the book love and respect. The bag play. This is d. W. News live from berlin in washington democrats issue 17 is and some of the officials to testify as they begin impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump the 1st big target as secretary of state might come peo committees are giving him a week to produce documents about the phone call to trump allegedly pressured ukraines president to investigate his democratic rival