A new Coalition Government following septembers election broke down it was one of the smaller parties in the four way negotiations business the business friendly three democrats under their leader Christiane Clinton that pulled out saying there was no shared vision and not enough trust to form a new government at all leaves chancellor Angela Merkels future hanging in the balance she was aiming to begin a full term in office now though all the talk is of possible fresh elections and in the meantime a long period of damaging uncertainty for germany and europe so our question here on our quadriga special show is Coalition Talks collapse disaster for germany and to discuss that question im joined here in the studio by three excellent guests beginning with venice on a journalist and author and one of the outstanding commentators on german politics and over four decades old. Also with this is alan posner welcome back alan. Hes a commentator for devos newspaper and a very warm welcome to to all rika how man from another berlin based day leave attempts for talks titled thank you both for being here on this or suspicious or an auspicious day im not quite sure that i was on a plane is in a state of shock according to one newspaper headline this morning do you share that assessment yes or no certainly the political deep Political Class in this is in a shock situation but germany is not in a crisis germany as such is doing very well economically not politically at the moment but overall germany is not in a crisis situation we face we are facing a domestic political crisis for sure one that we have not had in our history and the word password right now is uncertainty so to go home and you would not immediately has found i said were not in a crisis no sir no sign of crisis on the rise and its all well no because im going to makeover chances than charge and whatever how she lets my forgiveness is remain the chancel its only the question hala through germany by we have this experiment of a minority government which which would be new for germany but i think it would work well by the we have new elections but then again i think america will gain in votes and will be stronger than the full so im i just agree that we are not in a crisis. This is a surprise is a good start you know most german commentators this past week have been asked the question will will the talks be broken off is any stage leading to fresh elections or whatever the next an hour is going to be were going to have to talk about that theyve all said no no its not going to happen and then you guys are sitting here and saying its the most normal thing in the world we didnt say that ok you just know it is not normal but you know just as you said in the in this film at the beginning the problem of the. Liberals they are a very small party and indeed they are not fit to rule because they didnt have enough people who fit for government they didnt have a program that would have lurked and to they didnt have enough Technical Knowledge in order to be part of the government so what we dont have a general crisis what we have is a liberal party thats not fit to rule ok if you know the opportunity very shortly to talk the liberals down theres going to talk them up from the other side first of all your assessment where are we today well i want to come back toward you said about we sitting here saying on as what crisis there is of course a crisis of the chattering class i think this is the third time weve been wrong you were wrong about bricks that everyone must take never going to happen around about trump never going to happen and i personally was wrong about it because im on record saying of course jamaica is going to happen its just a question of finding the right compromise formula and and the question is really why did the liberals pull out and its not one second for you go into why the liberals pulled out just explain for our viewers the use of the word because we have to explain the term to jamaica whats it all about ok well. Thats where you should look to make a means a coalition of the christian democrats right wing conservatives the as you put it business friendly free democrats im not sure theyre really business friendly because business is very we journalists have to tag them with something when i call them liberals the liberals three did ok and the green party i think theyre all three of them fairly business friendly but different aspects of business but the so this is the socalled jamaica black green yellow as the flag jamaica and this these coalition this coalition is just for in the pot right before even starting before even we started to mention and we all thought it was going to happen these were exploratory talks before real talks for a government could be formed and then would then be given the approval of the parties involved at some stage in the very distant future. Absolutely but these talks went very much into detail and i think they had like two hundred sort of points to tick off and they you know they got they got incredibly far they had agreed basically on the question of immigration the greens were ready to accept a level upper limit to immigration where they had always said never never no no no the. The the party in the right the bavarian Christian Christian closer union. The conservatives they were ready on the other hand to have some kind of more green policy closing down coal power coal fired power stations which the greens want and you know and everyone really thought well the liberals would sort of be in the middle and they all sort of slipped through but they decided this is the interesting thing they decided last minute no we dont want to govern and i dont think its not because they can its anyone can you know if they dont want to and the reason is i think they want to go in the direction of a populist National Democratic party and take the voters of the far right a f d who got thirteen percent there also elections your journal in germany and the immigrant anti you and theres been sort of Christian Lin the leader of the of the probusiness Free Democrat Party the broads has been making sounds like this for some weeks now and i think his idea is i dont have to govern now ive got four years ive got eight years time im a young guy i can build my party into the. Right wing formation to the right of im going to marco and the christian democrats and then i can join government with twenty percent of my belt in four years or an h. Is that what hes aiming at. Orica dog wallace agreed yes i agree but it doesnt you know its both true they were not fit to govern or to rule and at the same time he has this idea of becoming a National Party i agree but this you completely but they would if they had gone and became part of the government they would have failed so thats part of the truth but the main question right now is the blame game was to blame you know and it was not a last minute decision. Was a decision that lynn obviously took weeks ago and then you try to come out as the big hero last night but every bit ive everybody can see it didnt work that way he he wanted to get out and he wanted to make the statement i want to make this point and to use trying to force this government into you elections like its just were talking about chris and lets just lets have a quick look at what he had to say lets go to lets get an impression and go give our viewers an impression of the man himself because he has been widely viewed in german politics in recent times as a man of the future a charismatic political politician i was noting lets get a flavor of the money myself. We were being forced to cast away our principles and everything that weve fought for over the years. We will not let down our voters by standing behind policies of which were not at all convinced that. Its better not to govern than to govern badly so that you. Could tell us a little bit more about the man himself hes viewed very often as one of the most capable politicians in german politics is this a Long Term Strategy that he has been involved with here in gauged in well you see he was part of the liberal party full quite a long time since he was Something Like that and whats more even though even even much younger so from a very early age onwards he was full time petition for the liberal party and what he saw in two thousand and thirteen was how his liberal party was thrown out of parliament because they had failed in government together with until america is dead and buried yet been buried in evil as the one who men is all on by himself as a one man show the Research Action of the liberals and of course he whole party is traumatised they hardly any of them really wants to rule again with anger in america because then they fear that they would again be thrown out of parliament do you believe that it is being in a coalition with im going to have time and time again so they are very afraid of lot but id like to Say Something about the strategy that. Somehow sketched for the liberals i think it will not work if we have no new elections i think that it is true that the liberals could get some of the votes from the right but on the other hand many of their traditional voters who voted for them now again will leave for the christian democrats because for them its no longer attractive to vote for the liberals now that the liberals have shown that they are no longer. Ready to govern un to be part of the. Cabinet so they will go to america so in the in the end you know thats what i think. Not have more votes but he will have a different basis more to the right and i dont think i agree totally with your characterization of is i mean he is an incredibly charismatic guy i know him i meet him and i think ive met him cover time in you know in smaller groups and so on and hes just so different from the run of the mill liberal you know. Hes just really quite fascinating i need hes a kind of person you know fight for dinner and have a really good time with i wouldnt want him to run the country will he lose votes no because the people who voted for the most the the traditional free democrat votes are ones that were taxes thats basically Everything Else you dont care about as long as tax is go down and hes promising that and i dont know none of the other parties want to lower taxes so theyll go with that and then on the other hand with his with his euro skeptic stance and with is skeptical sconce stance towards the greens and towards more green energy and so on hell and towards immigration he will get a big slice of the of the far right vote so he could it could it could pay off for him its all interesting stuff but the much more interesting question is where would be so you will go what will happen to them you know will the voters still support angloamerican and where will the city you end up. In fresh elections that is to crucial question today not where the f. T. P. Is going. Next lets just listen to what im going to medical have to say after the collapse of the Coalition Talks that we go under michael german chancellor. Yeah i feel weve seen and heard a lot during these dogs. Were very different styles of negotiating. Its fighting you know sympathy the greens to some getting used to the free democrats were resolute. But we believe that we were on the right path to securing an agreement. Im going to michael theyre accused of being pale and passive in the negotiations not by everybody there were some conservatives who said she had played a very strong role as a behind the scenes moderator where does she stand now what is her future you know even the green party set that angle america has been a good moderator of these talks so its only the liberals who are not pulled out of it who tried to blame and im going to makkah but its not what happened its just a blame game of blaming the about well what happened to im going to mecca im very optimistic because if there was a new elections because its not yet sure but everyone counts on them i think very many germans who vote for angle america and she will gain votes from almost all parties for example many. People who voted for the social democrats will vote for macca next time because the social democrats refuse to go into a Big Coalition and want to stay in the position but why should i vote for social democrats who want to stay in a position that makes no sense if i want to keep back in power the same something we disagree with me and alan i think that quite a few liberals will leave Christian Lindt not because its true they all wanted to have tax reductions but how are you supposed to reduce the taxes when you end up position it just doesnt work so those those who are somehow rational voters for the liberal party will now say well its better to vote for america who is in power and to strengthen her in some coalition whoever that will be instead of voting for linda so in the end the christian democrats will have more votes than they have now the premise here is that there could very well be freshly. Actions that is certainly a possible scenario at this point in time however the german part of the german president the federal president frank by the time i has come out we all know and said that the policies that this isnt a collapse of the talks this is a breakdown of talks that the policy should go back to each other get back around the table until they will have to see what key in the end will actually say because see here is the man who is in control of the process and he has to decide what will be next when it comes to fresh elections. And the american future and fully agree but for Different Reasons she will be there because there is no alternative a lot of people in germany that we didnt have before that this is the. Type i know i know you said you know well how to let it get you know you know they just dont think of these eleven of you live in this country folk a long long long time and you know domestic politics and then please do and server who else all you or you know i mean this is the i mean when i but this is the way that i think a lot of a lot of the johns should be saying a lot of young people and other people even in this country would very much like new faces in politics but what is the alternative nobody can answer this really and as long as we do not have this new phase then who will stay its as simple as that is going to happen are they going to be fresh elections. Well. Today is the day of uncertainty we cannot predict. Absolutely sure the democrats said today they didnt do it to confirm they will not go into a grand coalition ok so thats off the table when they want you elections thats what they said today but what if they were to say tomorrow or in a week from now it would then have to push out martin shorts again as the candidate for the dont know if he just lost one election you know hes got to hurry too but but but but the so for democrats they do have other phases it could be under they are not with the Opposition Leader now it could be the mayor of book shows shows that the shorts so they have alternatives and for the time being at least the christian democrats do not have a viable option what are you thinking yeah im thinking its boring but im thinking the same i think but i dont. Know i do think we need fresh elections we. I mean if if the president from father steinmeyer if he said you know this is not a collapse this is a breakdown that that semantics i dont see the difference between a collapse of the breakdowns me interpret saying whats the federal president ok but i just i just yesterday or the day before on sunday you told our newspaper that i was on talk that Jamaica Coalition should finally get their act together and finish the talks and come to them successfully no one listen to him so why should they listen to him now when mr has left the coalition so you know he cant go back he can go back and say oh i was wrong im very sorry im going to go. And and he certainly cant go back and say well look i thrown a temper tantrum now take me in but i want to get this that the other guys will say look you left you know and thats what comes to mind surely were older if the if there are first elections were all going to have to come back to this to make a scenario. Because there are there are going to be six politics in the bundestag thats more than in the past but here you are more than likely going to need or theres a real probability going to need four of them to form a coalition thats the situation were already in so youre going to be in the same situation as you were before but with less trust and firstly we dont know that its quite possible that certain immigrants if they get rid of mr schultz as their leader and that they could that they actually do gain votes because voters arent rational if they were rational they would do as you said but they but they arent so they might see themselves in a position to form a three Way Coalition with the excommunist Left Wing Party with the greens that was thats always been on the table as a possibility but they dont have a majority with you dont know whats going to happen after the next election they could be i mean if if that comes back with you know twelve thirteen fourteen percent he could start dictating terms from quite a different position you know this throw everything up in the end see what happens and i think thats the only only way out. Well i think thats and many. Due to this very long period of debating it in like a coalition with greens and surf and christian democrats and liberals i think many germans are now some will. Adapted to the idea that im like be a collision of the green party and the fish and democrats and i think that very many people in now after this long talk about john mica feel quite comfortable with this idea and it could be that if there was a new election people actively voted for as we call it black green fully agree that its good. I think. A lot of people you have to would you have to understand its quite simple a lot of people around on the amount are almost in their d. N. A. That they want a black Green Coalition for many many conservatives exactly even within the c. S. You you have that try to germans like to call the natural next government yeah that could very well happen so what and the worst thing that could happen would be a minority government that would be extremely bad for germany it would be extremely bad for europe and for the rest of the world because a minority government would defend it government uncertainty and this is what europe cannot stand right now and therefore that would be the worst thing that could happen and im pretty sure it will not happen theres a real danger that were going to leave. Home out in the cold hes come out and he said we want to lead europe with germany in the town dim that were so familiar to us until recent times he wants to take europe into a stronger and more ambitious future in germany is saying oh well we are trying to form a government and i dont i mean he came out even last night with that kind of a statement he called thats what we hear even last night or during the night actually like oh no no no i like only on the morning actually and to make sure that she will not form a minority view. Government because that would be very bad for france for his a bushmans concern in europe and. That would be the worst scenario that could happen and i dont think it will happen. I mean where champagne corks must be popping all morning is in moscow of course because the one thing that moscow wants is to have europe divided and incapable of acting and this is exactly what we have and we have been having. Talks there on hold now as long as johnny doesnt have a have a government weve got this Terrible Division within europe between east and west between the visit grad states of Eastern Europe who are anti immigration anti neo liberalism and basically anti any sort of liberalism and with the western european states weve got all these things that need resolving and theyre and theres no leadership from germany and no leadership for maybe four or five months so this is i mean he must be saying how could i be so lucky i get trump in america now ive got no government in germany britain is basically a government on the whole its all going according to plan its not like were going on that if i mean what does he have of perhaps you know europe is. Trying to find itself but putin doesnt have any advantage from that you know the union is in disarray surely you know but i mean thats but yet that might be i dont really agree but anyway that doesnt help him only because you have all you can say is europe is in disarray he want he can pose you his destabilization program in ukraine for instance which make no mistake about it is designed to reintegrate europe yell transit is in the empire and theres no im going to america has been the person whos stopped him from doing that but you know i think that whatever result the german elections would have had a could have had you know this ukraine problem but now. I have been attacked anyway by the europeans you know they are already resigned to the idea that it will go to russia were running out of time and youre right so id like to ask ask each of you to tell me what the best Case Scenario is from this point in time. And i think fresh elections are unavoidable. And the outcome that you would view is the best Case Scenario than. My gut feeling tells me it will be black green for lucian its my gut feeling and i will say i didnt come into the show feeling that that was germanys future maybe im beginning to be convinced by the prospect. I also think that we need fresh elections and i would actually quite welcome it if. The free democrats could again a whole lot more votes and then form black Yellow Coalition of center right coalition. Thus leaving a Strong Center left opposition of the greens and the reds what you might call back to the future yeah a little bit well i hope not back because that was khattab the last black Yellow Coalition was a catastrophe but theres a different prospect he could he could swing it over again well if this is not him then he would have races in government because as you said and it now wants to become very nationalistic maces even racist so i i do not think thats a yellow blanket government has turned nationalistic would be a very nice option. I dont think very often i do i dont think we can conclude conclude destro by calling a racist no i dont think this is taking it too far but you can still get any. Ok its into a bit sad but he wants to pick the those who vote for him if he and many of them all races. Would have to leave it there i want to go to control the sea thank you very much for joining us by phone of course talking about the collapse of g. M. 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