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does it mean what we think it is, does it benefit the out party in almost all instances? >> actually, i don't think we can divine that much from the early voting data. what it shows is there's extraordinary historic interest in this midterm election, and that could mean a number of different things. what i keep coming back to is the fundamentals here. there are three big, big problems for republicans. the first is that trump's approval rating among women with college degrees is 27% in the most recent nbc/"wall street journal" poll. 70% disapprove. of course, 64% of men without college degrees approve of trump, so we don't just have a gender gap, but a gender canyon, but the problem for republicans are the people most likely to vote in a midterm, women with college degrees. we also have a record number of republican retirements. if they flip 12, that would be more than what they need for majority. and we're seeing bonkers democratic fund-raising.

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