jimmy carter in 1976. he is up only 4 points in in. the state in which his running mate is the sitting governor. that's the lead within the margin of error. barack obama won narrowly but it is normally a solidly red state. nationally he is down by 7 points. and they no longer have to look at polling data. we can look at what is actually happening in the ground in terms of voter registration. for instance, the florida democratic party has submitted about 488,000 voter registration forms while republicans have submitted roughly 60,000. and data on early voting, six which of are battleground states shows the party affiliation of early voters favoring democrats in five of them. it is up in four of the seven states, compared to 2012. as has been predicted, the ground operation of the clinton campaign is so far pretty outperforming the nonexistent one.