it happened right after the end of world war ii. you want to talk political shock. that was a political shock. in the united states, this is the picture in the political science dictionary next to the definition of political shocker. this happened just three years after churchill's debacle in 1945. this was 1948. deeply unpopular democratic incumbent, president harry truman. he was widely expected to lose as he ran for re-election. republican thomas dewey was definitely going to beat harry truman in 1948, and everybody knew it. the chicago daily tribune was famously so sure of it that they put it down in black and white with their dewey defeats truman headline. and, yes, that election, where dewey did not defeat truman, that was an incumbent president holding on to his seat, but it was an absolute shock. political science is sort of a fake science. i say this as a degree holder in the subject. but you can use empirical