odds at 40% of a government shut down. does that sound right to you in. >> i can't figure out the democrats are determined not to help boeh ner this time. if boeh ner. i don't know how he -- if he can find 218 votes for something that doesn't touch the health care plan, then good luck. you know, this latest strategy of his, which i think is the most viable. i just don't know if the ted cruz caucus in the house will accept it, which is stop pushing for a defunding, try for the one-year delay on the individual mandate. you know, make that. that has at least a rational chance of giving, of getting, say, red state democrats in the senate potentially to sign on saying, you know, push for a one-84 delay. but i don't know if he can sell that to those 50 to 80 members that could by a gainst him and cost him his 218.