how big a role will mother nature play in picking the iowa caucus winner? right now, the forecast for tomorrow is tomorrow night is chilly but with no signs of rain or snow. that's the first time i've actually done a weather forecast on camera wearing my bill karins hat. maybe if he goes out sick. the point is there are a lot of variables as we know. good weather seems to favor who? >> romney. >> romney. mitt romney, right? because the notion is that he has the least sort of passionate base, but if it's not so terrible outside, they'll go ahead and go to the community centers and wherever and caucus. let's talk about another variable and ari, you have a piece about this in the nation. the evangelical vote. we have stats from last week's cnn/time ploelt that break down the evangelical born again vote. the results are somewhat interesting in who these folks