the voting starts here in iowa on tuesday. and here's how the race looks this morning, with the "des moines register" poll showing a three-way race now with romney leading ron paul by two points and ric santorum with a late surge. we will lk to santorum about his surpre momentum in the race just a couple of moment but first we have wi us nbc's political director chuck todd, and the chairman of iowa's republican party, matt strawn. welcome to both of you. good morng. happy new year. >> good morning. welcome ck. >> so, chuck todd, partner, where are we this morning? >> well, i think we're trying to gure out this. wht are iowaaucusgoers going to do? are they going to come into these caucuses tuesday night and ck a president or are they oing to do what they've done in the pt, which is send a message and nnow the field? if they come in and a lot of them want to pick a presidnt mi romney is going to win, turnous going to go up, you're going to see the casual voter show up and that's good for romney. if it's the old-styl sort of the activists that show up, i think santorum enough