state of iowa who are labeled as tea party voters who rely on and don't want tampering with their social security. and i think that as the debate begins to boom around this it's going to be a hard debate for him. >> howard, does rick perry have to win this debate tonight? he came out of the gate really running away with the polls but not running away with the debates. i think steve and i both scored romney as the winner of their first confrontation in a debate. does perry need a clean debate win somewhere along the line here soon like tonight? >> yeah, i think the expectations have risen for him, lawrence. the poll numbers bump up the expectations. the fact that he's now been in a couple. a lot of people thought he would fall flat on his face the first time he was out. he didn't. he did pretty well. better than expectations. he's got to keep meeting and exceeding expectations. i talked to top advisers in both camps about the state of play these days.