run as a republican in 2012. if he goes independent, you've got polls that are showing him barely ahead. there's not too much history on this stuff. when you look at it, the big name figures leave a party in the senate face, and with the exception of joe lieberman, you're looking at tom dodd and marshal coleman in virginia, 1994. they start strong and just recede as the campaign goes on and end up dreaming votes from one party. >> finally, let's take a look at pennsylvania. hot primary up there. you rarely see a primary this hot for the senate. arlen specter, the senator turned democrat right now, holding on a bit of a lead over joe sestak. if he's ahead, i have to ask steve if he's ahead, why is he going negative with the tough charge against joe sestak's naval record?