marine base for all of the keys and tens and thousands of people living down there, rick, it's quite frightening. >> it's really frightening. you are right. we do know it's going to make this right-hand turn. everything is based off of that. we also did not think it would be moving to west, which it is now. if that continues, that do west motion, that would make the hard right turn to him -- that's why the models have been pushing further and further. that's why the two biggest furthers we models we like are in agreement, 20 miles apart. that's good agreement unless your one side or another on the 20 miles. >> shepard: rick, thank you very much. a stark warning about the hurricane ahead. >> it's not a question of if florida is going to be impacted, it's a question of how bad florida is going to be impacted and where the storm ends up in the next 4-5 days at the passes in lynn. >> shepard: the fema director brock along with us live next.