have hit residential and big population areas and that's why it's become such a big topic. >> bill: when you analyze the weather. and you see a cooling of the pacific ocean, all right? do you put out a scenario we have tornadoes, hurricanes coming? are we going to have different hurricanes this year? and then there are, you know, summer droughts and stuff happens, and then there is next winter. we had a terrible winter here in the northeast this winter. can you like pinpoint which season is going to bring which horror? >> well, you certainly being based on what you are seeing in the atmosphere and water temperature ano, anomalies and s and other things you look at. they give you the key to what the pattern is going to look like. and if you know where the troughs and ridges set up across north america, you can then try to predict the extremes or the probability of getting the extremes. what you can't do is pinpoint that on may 14th there is going