history is not on their side because it's not on qaddafi's side, they turn on him, essentially join the rebels or directly go after qaddafi and he's taken care of internally. that's a nice outcome. it looks less plausible today. jon: the selgd, outside pressures force cadaf -- second, outside pressures force qaddafi to leave. nato or other countries? >> this is actually the scenario the u.s. officially embraces, that the military effort is not designed to knock out mommar qaddafi but a combination of forces over time will do him in, you have economic sanctions, arms embargo, international isolation and continued support for the rebels so they can't be pushed out and that over time he sees he can't win-win, he's going to be dragged down, negotiate his own departure. how realistic, we'll see. jon: then we get to the -- even that one doesn't sound so good, but the other two scenarios that you laid out, even less good, libya separates into two, and you see a stalemate result.