were predicted by the polls. part of it is that people kind of forgot that the 2012 election was so close that actually obama only got 52% of the vote. we think about president obama, mitt romney as a failure, he lost the election, but it was really close. this election again was forecast to be really close. people weren't used to that. i think a lot of people who had been following polls, who didn't have a lot of experience in the area, had sort of naive view because the last few elections the polls happen to have been very close at the national election. but let me give you a quote. my colleagues wrote this "the new york times" on october 6th. this november we would not at all be surprised to see mrs. clinton or mr. trump beat the state by state polling averages by about two percentage points. we just don't know which one would do it and that was based upon our historical analysis. they get it wrong sometimes.