if you look at the polls average. she's up by six. which you got to remember i think the president won with less than 5 percentage points. for a divided polarizing country six is not a bad number and i want to talk about florida for a second. i think that poll, the blooper poll is an outlier. and bloomburg is historically known for bad sampling. the -- i'm sorry, the party id for republicans is plus four. which can't be the case because florida demographics is changing. african americans in that poll is at 12. and it should be between 14 and 15. so i think that poll is questionable. >> arguably whatever happens in florida there is still a tough path to 270 for donald trump. do you think the democrats are getting overconfident? >> yes i do. i think they have two problems. one they have the enthusiasm gap problem. and two they are got this overconfidence problem and the two together can be fatal for them. what donald trump has going for