>> reporter: most egyptian analysts believe if there were free and fair elections the muslim brotherhood and similar groups would win around 30% to 35% of the vote. but certainly not only has the mubarak government exaggerated the so-called islamic threat in egypt to the united states. but did that to a great extent to the egyptian people, as well. every time elections would come around, they would send out a message. either vote for mubarak who will protect secular liberal christian egyptians or vote for the muslim brotherhood and you will pay the price. that sort of blackmail, so to speak, doesn't really work anymore among ordinary egyptians. they see that the muslim brotherhood isn't the sort of threat that president mubarak and the government always said it was.