now there are things that look better. where do you think we are going with this? >> we're in the direction of this economy, it's to the down side. it's growing, but it's growing slower. okay? and we were able to see that at the beginning of the year looking at leading indicators. where the growth rates started to turn down. >> the opposite of lagging indicators, tells you what happened in the past? >> yes. leading, look forward a little bit. coincident, thing like gdp, tree production, employment, telling you right now outside your window and lagging could be something like business failures, interest rates. things like that. leading indicators, growth rates coming down since the beginning of the year. we forecast a slowdown in the economy. economic growth starting by midyear. you've seen gdp start to throttle back. jobs growth start to disappoint further. growing but slower than you want it to. now, that directional call remains intact. we do not see a reacceleration in sight. however, the really important